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Westside Future Fund Retail Market Analysis & Recommendations Sept. 2016

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Final report by Bleakly Advisory Group on retail potential for Westside Atlanta as part of the Westside Future Fund's Land-Use Action Plan. Included in the report is an executive summary and definition of the study area, supply and demand conditions, assessment of future retail and locations, and a retail site selection primer.

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Westside Future Fund Retail Market Analysis & Recommendations Sept. 2016

  1. 1. 1 September 2016 WESTSIDE FUTURE FUND LAND-USE ACTION PLAN RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATIONS
  2. 2. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 2 • Executive Summary & Trade Area Definition • Supply and Demand Conditions • Trade Area Assessment • Strengths, Challenges, Opportunities • Future Retail Potential Analysis • Future Retail Potential Locations • Other Recommendations • Retail Site Selection Primer REPORT CONTENTS
  3. 3. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 3  The Retail Trade Area demographics likely diminish the potential attraction of many national retailers in the short-term in most Westside neighborhoods, which provides an opportunity for local entrepreneurs and initiatives to meet future retail demand. However, opportunities are present to include national retailers in some areas.  While the local retail real estate market indicators lag those of the city overall, the local market supports over 800,000 SF of occupied space.  Significant leakage of local retail spending to other commercial areas exists – i.e., local household spending supports large amounts of retail space outside of the Trade Area. Capturing a portion of this spending leakage back into the Trade Area provides the best opportunity to support additional local retail offerings.  Local resident spending patterns are similar to those of average American households in terms of retail spending categories. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
  4. 4. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 4  Capturing a portion of the aforementioned leakage, as well as garnering support from new households moving into the area, and support from local college students and attendees to nearby attractions, provides the potential for up to approximately 129,500 SF of additional retail opportunity. This potential exists at strategic locations within each Trade Area neighborhood.  Government entities, such as Invest Atlanta, and private organizations, such as the Westside Future Fund, are prepared to provide assistance in local redevelopment initiatives. In order to actualize the potential detailed in this report, local residents and entrepreneurs must work with these groups to initiate the retail growth. Monetary and social enterprise incentives will often be necessary to attract attention for market opportunities. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY New Retail Potential by Neighborhood Sq. Foot Range English Ave. 13,000 - 16,500 Vine City 68,000 - 77,000 Ashview Heights 10,000 - 12,000 AUC Neighborhood 21,000 - 24,000 TOTAL 112,000 - 129,500
  5. 5. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 5 RETAIL TRADE AREA BOUNDARIES Retail Trade Area MARTA Station Area .25-mile Radius Future Beltline H.E.Holmes Households in the “Retail Trade Area” will provide the majority of spending support for new retail options in the Westside neighborhoods examined in the Land Use Action Plan.
  6. 6. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 6 SUPPLY AND DEMAND CONDITIONS
  7. 7. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 7 CURRENT WESTSIDE DEMAND DRIVERS  Retail demand in the Trade Area currently comes from four main groups, driven largely by residents, as well as college students from the AUC. Local employees and visitors make up the remaining demand segments.  The impact of these groups could shift over time with the new stadium, Congress Center initiatives, additional employment opportunities and continuing Beltline development. Residents Employees Visitors College Students WESTSIDE ATLANTA RETAIL TRADE AREA
  8. 8. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 8  Population in the Trade Area decreased dramatically from 2000 to 2010, but is currently trending upwards.  Projected to recover to 79% of 2000 population by 2021.  The Trade Area accounts for 6.6% of Atlanta residents compared to 9.1% in 2000. POPULATION 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 105% 110% 115% 120% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Study Area City of Atlanta Relative Population Growth Index , 2000 to 2021 Population Trade Area City of Atlanta 2000 Census 38,203 418,156 2010 Census 29,494 420,003 2016 Estimate 29,964 454,629 2021 Projection 30,255 479,455 Avg. Annual Growth 2000-2010 -2.6% 0.0% Avg. Annual Growth 2010-2016 0.3% 1.3% Avg. Annual Growth Forecast 2016-2021 0.2% 1.1% Source: Bleakly Advisory Group based on data from Nielsen, Inc. DEMAND Trade Area
  9. 9. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 9 Persons per Square Mile, By Block Group 116,000 – 618,000 22,000 – 116,000 4,000 – 22,000 1,000 – 4,000 0 – 1,000 Based on Data from ESRI  Population density is greatest in the eastern portion of the Trade Area.  Greater population density will help drive retail demand.  Overall, city of Atlanta population density: 3,413 persons per square mile DEMAND POPULATION DENSITY Source: ESRI
  10. 10. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 10  The number of households in the Trade Area decreased by 26% from 2000 to 2010.  Households in the Trade Area tend to be slightly larger than those citywide. Households Trade Area City of Atlanta 2000 Census 13,197 169,050 2010 Census 9,822 185,484 2016 Estimate 10,089 207,248 2021 Projection 10,366 222,710 Avg. Annual Growth 2000-2010 -2.9% 0.9% Avg. Annual Growth 2010-2016 0.4% 1.9% Avg. Annual Growth Forecast 2016-2021 0.5% 1.4% 2016 Est. Avg. Household Size 2.35 2.04 Source: Bleakly Advisory Group based on data from Nielsen, Inc. Annual Household Growth DEMAND HOUSEHOLDS -3.0% -2.5% -2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% Annual Growth 2000-2010 Annual Growth 2010-2016 Annual Growth 2016-2021 Trade Area City of Atlanta
  11. 11. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 11  Median income in the Trade Area is half that of the city of Atlanta.  Retailers look very closely at median household income in deciding where to locate. Household Income Trade Area City of Atlanta 2016 Est. Median Household Income $ 24,047 $ 48,878 % of City Median Income 49% 100% Households by Income HH with income >$15K 3,318 33% 41,108 20% HH with income $15K - $35K 3,147 31% 41,037 20% HH with income $35K - $50K 1,351 13% 23,216 11% HH with income $50K - $100K 1,686 17% 49,885 24% HH with income > $100K 588 6% 52,002 25% Annual Household Income Source: Bleakly Advisory Group based on data from Nielsen, Inc. DEMAND INCOME 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Less than $15K $15K - $35K $35K - $50K $50K - $100K More than $100K Trade Area City of Atlanta
  12. 12. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 12 Based on Data from ESRI Median Household, Income, By Block Group $105,000 – $200,000 $73,000 – $105,000 $42,000 – $73,000 $10,000 – $42,000 $0 – $10,000  Trade Area households are below most typical income thresholds targeted by a large number of national retail chains. DEMAND INCOME Source: ESRI
  13. 13. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 13 Based on Data from ESRI RETAIL SPENDING DEMAND Total Retail Spending/HH By Census Tract  While spending in the area is significant on a per household basis, it is below the target levels sought by many national retailers. Source: ESRI
  14. 14. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 14  The top three retail store types:  Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers  Food & Beverage  Foodservice & Drinking Places account for 43% of retail spending by Trade Area residents.  This spending pattern is TYPICAL of most American retail trade areas. CURRENT TRADE AREA RETAIL SPENDING BY STORE TYPE Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers, $71,972,352 Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores, $7,472,734 Electronics & Appliances Stores, $10,267,602 Building Material, Garden Equipment Stores, $38,415,840 Food & Beverage Stores, $60,595,683 Health & Personal Care Stores, $24,253,663 Gasoline Stations, $33,153,890Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores, $22,321,428 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, Music Stores, $11,230,418 General Merchandise Stores, $52,714,646 Miscellaneous Store Retailers, $12,988,608 Non-Store Retailers, $41,161,455 Foodservice & Drinking Places, $58,193,467 Source: Bleakly Advisory Group based on data from Nielsen, Inc. DEMAND $372,769,436 Annual Spending
  15. 15. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 15  Westside Trade Area spending supports 1.5 million square feet of retail space(not including motor vehicles & parts)  2/3 of that spending takes place outside of the Westside Trade Area. Total Annual Resident Consumer Expenditures Supportable Square Feet Current Trade Area Occupied Retail Square Feet Westside Trade Area $372,769,436 1,500,000+/- 820,000 DEMAND Source: Bleakly Advisory Group RETAIL SPENDING & SUPPORTABLE SQUARE FEET Current residents spending supports over 600,000 SF of retail space outside of the Trade Area
  16. 16. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 16  The difference between retail demand and supply represents an opportunity gap.  The positive values by store type in the area signifies “leakage” of retail spending to locations outside of the local market area.  Nearly all store categories in the Trade Area show retail demand potential to capture retail spending “leakage” back into the Trade Area. Opportunity Gap – Retail Stores, Westside Trade Area -$20,000,000 -$10,000,000 $0 $10,000,000 $20,000,000 $30,000,000 $40,000,000 Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores Electronics & Appliances Stores Building Material, Garden Equip Stores Grocery Stores Health & Personal Care Stores Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, Music Stores General Merchandise Stores Miscellaneous Store Retailers Foodservice & Drinking Places Current Over-Supply Current Under-Supply DEMAND RETAIL OPPORTUNITY GAP ANALYSIS Source: Bleakly Advisory Group based on data from Nielsen, Inc.
  17. 17. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 17 Based on Data from ESRI DEMAND RETAIL OPPORTUNITY GAP ANALYSIS Total Retail Opportunity Gap By Block Group  Nearly all block groups west of Lowery Blvd. show opportunities to capture retail leakage. Source: ESRI
  18. 18. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 18 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1. 17,400 2. 17,300 3. 3,750 4. 8,270 5. 15,800 6. 4,200 7. 13,000 8. 5,090 9. 8,130 10. 22,800 2014 GADOT Traffic Counts (ADT - Avg. Daily Trips) DEMAND TRAFFIC COUNTS Source: Bleakly Advisory Group based on data from GDOT  Traffic counts show that Trade Area roads are generally local-serving.  National retailers typically seek at least 15,000 ADT and above for new store placement.  Lower traffic counts provide a challenge to attract retail in many Trade Area locations.  Northside Drive provides the heaviest auto traffic counts in the Trade Area (22,000+ ADT).
  19. 19. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 19 OVERVIEW Year Total SF Vacant SF % Vacant Annual Absorption Avg Rent 2015 913,894 94,327 10.3% 500 $ 6.24 2014 913,894 82,677 9.0% (11,650) $ 6.24 2013 913,894 88,367 9.7% 5,690 $ 6.39 2012 913,894 132,600 14.5% 44,233 $ 6.67 2011 913,894 111,041 12.2% (21,559) $ 6.34 2010 909,894 119,800 13.2% 12,759 $ 5.75 2009 907,734 118,670 13.1% 1,030 $ 6.92 2008 907,734 110,370 12.2% (8,300) $ 7.91 2007 907,734 40,800 4.5% (69,570) $ 6.35 Trade Area City of Atlanta Total SF 913,894 61,411,089 Avg. SF/Bldg. 9,422 12,683 Vacant SF 94,327 3,750,077 % Vacant 10.3% 6.1% 2015 Absorption (SF) 500 103,405 Avg. Rent Per SF $ 6.24 $ 15.55 SUPPLY Source: Bleakly Advisory Group, based on data from CoStar  The local retail market has been relatively stagnant over the past eight years, which, given the population decline in the area, is better than might be expected.  The retail market in the Trade Area has the potential to improve in the near future given the projected level of attention and investments that are currently being made by government, corporate and philanthropic entities. Trade Area Retail Market History Trade Area & Atlanta Current Retail Market
  20. 20. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 20 Downtown Atlanta Trade Area 3-Mile Radius from MLK/Lowery 0 366,000 Based on Data from CoStar SUPPLY  While retail demand generally outpaces supply within the Trade Area boundaries, significant retail nodes are located nearby, which attract local resident spending. These areas include:  The Walmart at Howell Mill Rd.  Atlantic Station  The Mall at West End RETAIL LOCATION HEAT MAP Retail Square Feet
  21. 21. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 21  The Trade Area’s share of the city’s retail space has remained relatively stable, dropping by approximately 0.2% over the past decade. 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% 1.3% 1.4% 1.5% 1.6% 1.7% 1.8% 2000 Q1 2001 Q1 2002 Q1 2003 Q1 2004 Q1 2005 Q1 2006 Q1 2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 QTD Total SF Occupied SF Trade Area Share of City of Atlanta Retail Square Feet TRADE AREA SHARE OF RETAIL VS. CITY OF ATLANTA SUPPLY Source: Bleakly Advisory Group, based on data from CoStar
  22. 22. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 22 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 2000 Q1 2001 Q1 2002 Q1 2003 Q1 2004 Q1 2005 Q1 2006 Q1 2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 QTD Study Area City of Atlanta Trade Area  Since the onset of the Great Recession retail vacancy rates in the Trade Area have remained above the city of Atlanta rate, generally 9%-10%. VACANCY SUPPLY Source: Bleakly Advisory Group, based on data from CoStar
  23. 23. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 23  Retail rents in the Trade Area have remained significantly lower than citywide rents since 2008, and below national/regional rates – typically $15-$20/SF. AVERAGE RENT $0.00 $5.00 $10.00 $15.00 $20.00 $25.00 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 QTD Study Area City of Atlanta SUPPLY Source: Bleakly Advisory Group, based on data from CoStar Trade Area
  24. 24. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 24 ANNUAL ABSORPTION (100,000) (50,000) - 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (500,000) - 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Trade Area Annual Retail Space Absorption City of Atlanta Annual Retail Space Absorption SUPPLY Source: Bleakly Advisory Group, based on data from CoStar  Although local retail space absorption has been modest over the past decade, the future planned improvements in the area have the potential to accelerate future absorption trends.
  25. 25. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 25 TRADE AREA ASSESSMENT
  26. 26. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 26  Significant location: in the heart of the Atlanta region  Access to outside consumer support  Variety of locations for a variety of retailers  Supportive community with deep commercial history TRADE AREA ASSESSMENT Strengths Challenges Opportunities  Lacking demographics (household density, incomes) to attract wide range of national retailers  Lower traffic counts on major arterials  Few larger sites for additional retail development  Historically lagging performance of current retail offerings  Lack of concentrated commercial presence  Lack of employment and tourist offerings within the Trade Area  Leverage new investment and attention in the area to attract additional retailers at key catalytic sites  Recapture a portion of retail leakage with demand from new growth  Redevelopment at central neighborhood locations provide smaller - scale potential, while locations near the new stadium and the Congress Center provide larger-scale potential opportunities.
  27. 27. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 27 RETAIL MARKET DEMAND POTENTIAL STATISTICAL DEMAND Additional Outside Support •Current Expenditure (Demand) •Current Retail Sales (Supply) $ Leakage By Store Type = Opportunity Gap •Expected Sales per Square Foot by Store Type for Current and Future Households Potential Gross Square Feet Potential Capture Rate  Future retail potential estimates are based on statistical demand modeling as diagrammed below: Trade Area Future Retail Potential
  28. 28. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 28 RETAIL STORE TYPE EXAMPLES FOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES Miscellaneous Store Retailers Example: Florist Local Business/Service Space Laundry / Dry Cleaners Sporting Goods Food / Restaurants Community Health Space
  29. 29. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 29 RETAIL STORE TYPE EXAMPLES FOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES Home Furnishings Electronics Health and Personal Care Building Material, Garden EquipmentClothing General Merchandise
  30. 30. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 30  Business incubators can be essential to creating entrepreneurs in the local area, who in turn, will occupy local commercial real estate.  Business incubators nurture the development of early stage and new companies, helping them survive and grow during the start-up period, when they are most vulnerable.  To encourage business growth and job creation in the city, Invest Atlanta works with businesses to find opportunities that will help them thrive. Invest Atlanta can be an active resource to any business for ventures within the city limits.  Kent Spencer, Manager of Business Retention & Expansion BUSINESS INCUBATOR https://blog.galaxyweblinks.com/know-how-business-incubator- can-help-launch-your-startup/ Innovation Depot, Birmingham, AL
  31. 31. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 31 “OUTSIDE” / NON-RESIDENT RETAIL SUPPORT Category of Event Total Number of Out-of-State Visitor Days Average Daily Expenditures Per Out- of State Visitor GWCC 1,361,762 $ 258.34 Trade Shows 812,637 $ 292.52 Trade Show/Corp 90,999 $ 250.22 Convention w/o exhibits - Conferences 130,719 $ 202.69 Amateur Sports - Large 226,464 $ 197.10 Amateur Sports - Local 13,943 $ 245.85 Graduations 7,503 Consumer Shows 59,029 $ 169.84 General Meetings 20,468 $ 234.43 Georgia Dome 848,773 $ 301.83 Spectator Events 789,609 $ 309.20 General Meetings 59,164 $ 203.41 Total 2,210,535  Support from attendees to Mercedes- Benz Stadium and the Georgia World Congress Center provide potential to support and enhance Trade Area opportunities.  Assuming $100/day of retail and restaurant expenditures by out-of- state visitors, these attendees represent and additional potential market of $221 million annually that is currently not captured in the Trade Area.  An attractive and convenient destination nearby in the Trade Area could capture up to 5% of this spending, and thus support approximately 50,000 SF retail and restaurant space. Source: Georgia World Congress Center Authority  Implementing multiple solutions for pedestrians to cross Northside Drive will be key to capturing this demand within the Westside Trade Area.
  32. 32. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 32 Atlanta U. Center Approx. Students/ Employees Est. Total Annual Spending Est. 2016 Discretionary Spending @ 30% Potential Trade Area Capture 2021 Est. Sales Per SF Supported SF Students 8,000 $101,760,000 $30,528,000 15% $250 18,317 Faculty & Staff 1,950 $227,749,685 $68,324,905 5% $250 13,665 TOTAL $329,509,685 $98,852,905 31,982 “OUTSIDE” / NON-RESIDENT RETAIL SUPPORT Atlanta University Center (AUC) Member Institutions  Capturing additional spending by AUC faculty, staff, and students offers the potential for additional retail support in the AUC area, as well as the surrounding neighborhoods.  Based on the assumptions shown at right, discretionary spending from AUC on items including food, entertainment, electronics, apparel, and personal care items support up to 32,000 SF of off-campus retail space.  As new spending patterns are established, after the five-year timeframe, the potential exists to grow support for retail from this group by increasing the capture of discretionary spending. Sources: Bleakly Advisory Group, AUC Institutions, “The Economic Impact of University System of Georgia Institutions on their Regional Economies in FY 2015” by UGA, “College Explorer” by Refuel Agency/Crux Research
  33. 33. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 33  The Trade Area has the potential to add 112,500 – 129,500 square feet of new retail offerings over the next five years. FUTURE RETAIL POTENTIAL – WESTSIDE TRADE AREA  These new offerings will need to attract:  Additional spending capture from current residents and local college students  Capture of new resident spending  Capture of spending from outside consumers to events at GWCC & Georgia Dome. PotentialFutureSq.Feet Source: Bleakly Advisory Group New Retail Potential by Store Type Store Type Sq. Foot Range Electronics Stores 4,000 - 4,750 Health and Personal Care Stores 7,000 - 8,000 Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores 7,000 - 8,250 Other General Merchandise Stores 8,000 - 10,000 Miscellaneous Store Retailers 6,000 - 7,500 Local Serving Office / Health 18,000 - 21,000 Laundry and Dry Cleaning 4,500 - 5,500 Sporting Goods Stores 2,000 - 2,500 Food/Beverage Stores 33,500 - 36,500 Restaurants 22,000 - 25,500 Total Square Feet Potential Demand 112,000 - 129,500 - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000
  34. 34. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 34  Current households in the Trade Area represent over half of the potential market audience for future retail in the area.  Over 2,000 future new households have the potential to move to the Trade Area in the next five years, based on the recent Residential Market Analysis conducted for the Westside Future Fund. These households could support 15%-20% of the potential new retail in the area.  Approximately one-quarter of the potential new retail would be supported by demand from “non-resident support”  Local College Students  Local Employees  Mercedes-Benz Stadium & Ga. World Congress Center attendees. FUTURE RETAIL POTENTIAL MARKET AUDIENCES Market Support 56% 16% 28% Current Households Future Households Outside Support
  35. 35. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 35  Because each Westside neighborhood is unique with varying population, infrastructure and building environments, the potential future retail opportunities also vary. Estimated future square foot potential is shown at right.  These future estimates are subject to change due to the dynamic nature of the local market area. Changing development scenarios within a particular neighborhood could cause the potential space allocations to shift from one location to another. FUTURE RETAIL POTENTIAL – WESTSIDE TRADE AREA Source: Bleakly Advisory Group New Retail Potential by Neighborhood Sq. Foot Range English Ave. 13,000 - 16,500 Vine City 68,000 - 77,000 Ashview Heights 10,000 - 12,000 AUC Neighborhood 21,000 - 24,000 TOTAL 112,000 - 129,500
  36. 36. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 36 ENGLISH AVENUE 5-YEAR FUTURE RETAIL POTENTIAL Future Beltline Joseph E. Boone Blvd. JosephE.LoweryBlvd. Mims Park Potential Location for New Retail Current GDOT Traffic Counts Joseph E. Lowery: 11,100 ADT Joseph E. Boone: 5,300 ADT JamesP.BrawleyDr. Cameron M. Alexander Blvd. First St. Mark AME Store Type Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores 1,500 - 2,000 Miscellaneous Store Retailers 1,500 - 2,000 Local Serving Office / Health 4,500 - 6,000 Laundry and Dry Cleaning 1,500 - 2,000 Restaurants 4,000 - 4,500 Total Square Feet Potential Demand 13,000 - 16,500 Sq. Foot Range
  37. 37. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 37  With the addition of new residential homes nearby, retail offerings at the Boone/Lowery intersection can be expanded to include Miscellaneous Store Retailers (such as Florists), Laundry, Restaurants and other options.  The new Mims Park can help attract similar complementary offerings.  Retail offerings at the J.P. Brawley/C.M. Alexander intersection can supplement current smaller-scale retail offerings to include Local Serving Office and Restaurants.  A potential entrepreneurial/artisans incubator could also be located in the historic St. Mark AME structure, this will help to drive retail demand.  Upon full development the Beltline will add additional retail potential, likely along Boone. ENGLISH AVENUE 5-YEAR FUTURE RETAIL POTENTIAL Urban Perform: a non-profit gym providing exercise and nutrition opportunities located at 678 Joseph E Boone Blvd. near the future Mims Park Current Conditions For more details: www.planwestside.com
  38. 38. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 38 Current GDOT Traffic Counts Joseph E. Lowery: 13,500 ADT MLK Drive: 8,750 ADT Northside Dr. @ Stadium: 29,300 ADT VINE CITY 5-YEAR FUTURE RETAIL POTENTIAL Mercedes- Benz Stadium Georgia World Congress Center Store Type Sq. Foot Range Electronics Stores 1,000 - 1,250 Health and Personal Care Stores 4,500 - 5,000 Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores 4,500 - 5,000 Other General Merchandise Stores 8000 - 10000 Miscellaneous Store Retailers 3,000 - 3,500 Local Serving Office / Health 3,500 - 4,000 Laundry and Dry Cleaning 1,500 - 1,750 Sporting Goods Stores 2,000 - 2,500 Food/Beverage Stores 30,000 - 32,000 Restaurants 10,000 - 12,000 Total Square Feet Potential Demand 68,000 - 77,000 NorthsideDrive JosephE.LoweryBlvd. Potential Location for New Retail M.L.K. Jr. Drive
  39. 39. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 39  MLK Jr. Drive at the Historic Westside Village serves as a neighborhood center with higher levels of pedestrian traffic. This area has potential to provide additional neighborhood retail offerings across a range of store types.  Transit Oriented Development (TOD) at the two MARTA transit stations in this area (Ashby and Vine City) can help capture additional retail demand.  Northside Drive has the potential to attract larger national retailers and can serve as a retail node for Trade Area residents, as well as attract stadium and Congress Center attendees.  National tenants, including a small-format grocery store, could be integrated into a “Retail/Mixed Use Destination” along Northside Drive. This destination could serve as a beacon for outside spending support, which would help provide goods and services for local residents. VINE CITY 5-YEAR FUTURE RETAIL POTENTIAL Current Conditions The Land Use Action Team surveyed MLK JR. Drive merchants on-site as part of this assignment. For more details: www.planwestside.com
  40. 40. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 40 ASHVIEW HEIGHTS / WASHINGTON PARK 5-YEAR FUTURE RETAIL POTENTIAL Store Type Sq. Foot Range Miscellaneous Store Retailers 1,500 - 2,000 Local Serving Office / Health 5,000 - 5,500 Food/Beverage Stores 1,500 - 2,000 Restaurants 2,000 - 2,500 Total Square Feet Potential Demand 10,000 - 12,000 Truly Living Well Center for Natural Urban Agriculture Potential Location for New Retail Future Beltline  The corner of Lawton and Westview currently serves as a community “crossroads” and has the potential for small-scale redevelopment, capturing momentum from the new Truly Living Well Center for Natural Urban Agriculture and future Beltline development. Fair Street JosephE.LoweryBlvd.
  41. 41. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 41  While retail potential is likely modest in the short-term in Ashview Heights/Washington Park due to few commercial site locations, as well as intervening nearby opportunities in Vine City and the AUC area, a redevelopment of office properties on the south side of the 900 block of MLK Drive could prompt additional demand. ASHVIEW HEIGHTS / WASHINGTON PARK 5-YEAR FUTURE RETAIL POTENTIAL  Ashview Heights/Washington Park residents stated at input sessions as part of this study that they desire the following commercial options nearby:  retail fronting on Truly Living Well farm  “walk-to” businesses in the neighborhood  dry cleaner  gym, health center  cafe with patio  natural food grocery store  clothing store  ice cream store  bike shop  restaurants
  42. 42. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 42  The faculty, staff, and students at Atlanta University Center institutions provide potential support for a range of additional retail opportunities at or near campus.  Atlanta Housing Authority (AHA) plans for additional housing at the Scholars Landing development will help support additional retail.  AHA has proposed a redevelopment concept for historic Roosevelt Hall that could provide space for a portion of the future retail potential in the area. AUC NEIGHBORHOOD FUTURE RETAIL POTENTIAL Total New Retail Potential: AUC Neighborhood AHA Choice Neighborhoods Future Scholars Landing Development Current GDOT Traffic Counts Joseph E. Lowery: 17,600 ADT 566 new residential units JosephE.LoweryBlvd. Store Type Sq. Foot Range Electronics Stores 3,000 - 3,500 Health and Personal Care Stores 2,500 - 3,000 Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores 1,000 - 1,250 Local Serving Office / Health 5,000 - 5,500 Laundry and Dry Cleaning 1,500 - 1,750 Food/Beverage Stores 2,000 - 2,500 Restaurants 6,000 - 6,500 Total Square Feet Potential Demand 21,000 - 24,000
  43. 43. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 43 RETAIL RECOMMENDATIONS  Key Elements of a Coordinated Retail Strategy for the Trade Area: Attract more retail shoppers in the area through continued growth in “rooftops”  “Retail Follows Rooftops”  Long-range objective: Double the number of households to increase, not only the viability of the area, but also generate more self-sustaining retail demand.  Seek out new neighbors and embrace them by promoting new housing in various formats—Westside neighborhoods have the potential to become a laboratory for new housing activity. Leverage the considerable support structure  Invest Atlanta and private entities, such as the Westside Future Fund, are prepared to provide assistance in local redevelopment initiatives. Monetary and social enterprise incentives will often be necessary to attract market opportunities.
  44. 44. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 44 RETAIL RECOMMENDATIONS:  Key Elements of a Coordinated Retail Strategy for the Trade Area: Create clusters of retail that serve community needs and leverage current infrastructure and investments Attract a “critical mass” of small-scale retail at key transportation intersections, particularly near transit stations. Retail offerings could be supplemented by small community medical-related facilities that will drive daily demand to the area. Explore partnerships with local medical schools. Retail nodes along Northside Drive can provide larger retail concentration due to potential to attract outside consumers. Local residents will benefit with the expanded opportunities. Grow the retail sector by retaining more of the current expenditure “leakage” Focus on food, services and neighborhood needs. Capture more student and faculty spending.
  45. 45. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 45 RETAIL SITE SELECTION PRIMER
  46. 46. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 46 RETAIL REALITY: SITE SELECTION  Typical Challenges of New Store Development Based on National Case Studies  Crime and/or the perception of crime  Market data often misrepresents the economic potential and purchasing power  Securing appropriate development sites is more challenging in urban areas  Increased development costs in the form of higher construction costs and cumbersome approval and permitting processes
  47. 47. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 47 RETAIL REALITY: SITE SELECTION DEMAND SUPPLY SITE SPACE RETAIL SITE SELECTION WHY DO STORES GO WHERE THEY GO? How many people might shop there? Demographics: # of Households Incomes Etc. What competition is there already? How does the competition perform? Which location can generate the most sales? - Traffic Counts - Parking - Access Which space best suits retailer’s needs? Is space available?
  48. 48. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 48 Demographics – population, household incomes (or total purchasing power), characteristics, future growth  Retailers need to attract a certain number of people at certain income levels in order to survive DEMAND Store Type Population Necessary to Support Corner Store 500 Convenience Store 2,000 Delicatessen and Bakery 3,000 Snack Bar 3,000 Beauty Parlor 3,000 Drug Store 5,000 Hardware Store 5,000 Bank Branch 5,000 Supermarket 10,000 Thresholds of Community Stores (Rules of Thumb) RETAIL REALITY: SITE SELECTION
  49. 49. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis 49  National retailers typically follow demand with differing requirements for their stores.  Westside Trade Area meets some, not all, of the national chain requirements.  Examples (for illustrative purposes): Store Trade Area Population Location/Other National Drug Store 2 mile radius 20,000 Intersection of two main streets with significant traffic counts Grocery Store 3 mile radius 20,000+ On high-visibility, high traffic corridor Pet Supermarket 3 mile radius 50,000 25,000 daily vehicle traffic count Firehouse Subs 3 mile radius 20,000+ $35,000 median household income Denny's 3 mile radius 40,000 30,000 daily vehicle traffic count RETAIL REALITY: SITE SELECTION SITE

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