Daniel Ruiz-Carrascal

1. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
9 August 2021
#ClimateReport #IPCC
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Saturday, November 6, 2021
Central and South America in the IPCC WGI AR6
Daniel Ruiz-Carrascal, C.E., M.Sc., M.A., M.Phil., PhD
Columbia University in the City of New York, USA
Lead Author, Chapter 12, IPCC WGI AR6

2. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Outline
Narrative and structure of Chapter 12
Definition of climatic impact-drivers - CIDs
Global perspective of changes in CIDs
Observed and projected changes in CIDs for CSA

3. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Figure 12.2
Narrative and structure of Chapter 12
Final Government Draft Chapter 12 IPCC AR6 WGI
1

4. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
[Disclaimer: this is not
an official figure of
the IPCC WGI Sixth
Assessment Report.
It is used here by the
author to facilitate the
explanation of climate
sensitive sectors in
CSA.]
Hydropower generation, 7
Watersupply- human
consumption, 8
Navigation, 1
Aquifers recharge, 3
Water conflicts, 1
Irrigation, 3
Coastal areas, 10
Islands, 1
Agriculture, 10
Livestock, 5
Forestry, 6
Silviculture, 1
Fisheries, 3
Biodiversity, 6
High-altitude
environments, 5
Low-land ecosystems, 2
Arid/semiaridecosystems,
6
Estuarine/freshwater
ecosystems, 1
Grasslands, 1
Natural disasters, 5
Humansettlements, 6
Infrastructure, 2
Humanhealth, 7
Commerce/tourism, 2
Services/transportation, 3
Mining, 1 Gas, 1 Construction/real state, 1
Blue, orange and olive green sectors are directly related to water resources, productive activities
(consumption and revenue) and biodiversity, respectively. Source: Ruiz-Carrascal D (2013)
Priority sectors
identified in the
twelve South-
American national
assessments
submitted to the
UN framework
prior to the IPCC
5th cycle

5. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
[Disclaimer: this is not
an official figure of
the IPCC WGI Sixth
Assessment Report.
It is used here by the
author to facilitate the
explanation of
sectors and assets.
Specific info in Table
12.2 of the
assessment.]
SECTORS
(and assets)
Poverty,
livelihoods,
and
sustainable
development Health,
wellbeing, and
changing
structure of
communities
Cities,
settlements and
key
infrastructure
Food, fibre
and other
ecosystem
products
Water
Ocean and
coastal
ecosystems
Terrestrial
and
freshwater
ecosystems
Housing stock
Farmland and livestock mortality
Indigenous traditions
Labor productivity
Morbidity
Mortality
Recreation and tourism
Cities
Land and water
transportation
Energy infrastructure
Built environment
Climate-sensitive
sectors (and their
assets)
corresponding to
chapters 2-8 of the
IPCC WGII AR6

6. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
A
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DIRECT
IMPACTS
THERMAL STRESS
(HEAT AND COLD
SPELLS)
Vector-borne /
zoonotic diseases
Food-related
illnesses
WATER-BORNE
DISEASES
Cholera, diarrheal,
dysentery, typhoid,
and bacterial
outbreaks
AIR POLLUTION
&
WILDFIRES/SMOKE
PLUMES
&
SAND/DUST STORMS
Asthma and respiratory
disorders
DISASTERS (such as
floods)
Fatalities, injuries
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Harmful algal
blooms
Climate
variability,
change and
extremes
ECOLOGICALLY-
MEDIATED
INDIRECT
IMPACTS
P
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Y
S
I
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L
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-
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T
E
D
CASCADING
OR
SECONDARY
EXTREME SEA LEVEL
Fatalities, injuries
AIR-BORNE DISEASES
Coronavirus, influenza
[Disclaimer: this is not
an official figure of
the IPCC WGI Sixth
Assessment Report.
It is used here by the
author to facilitate the
explanation of CIDs,
particularly -in this
case- for the climate
and health sector.]
Human health
sector

7. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
DIRECT IMPACTS OF THERMAL STRESS
Section 12.3.1.2 Extreme heat
(in parenthesis, number of research articles)
ECOLOGICALLY-MEDIATED INDIRECT IMPACTS
ON VECTOR-BORNE AND ZOONOTIC DISEASES
Section 12.3.1.1 Mean air temperature
Thresholds to understand range shifts and incubation rates for
pathogens, disease vectors, and zoonotic hosts
(6 research articles)
Temperatures above a typical threshold of 21.5ºC
e.g., Mordecai et al., 2017: Detecting the impact of
temperature on transmission of Zika, dengue, and
chikungunya using mechanistic models. PLOS Neglected
Tropical Diseases, 11(4)
Heat
extremes,
marathons
and tennis
tournaments
(2)
Heat impacts
(6)
Heat stress
(7)
Extreme heat
thresholds and
acclimation
(9)
Hot and humid heat episodes, mortality,
hospital intake, lower safety and
productivity of outdoor laborers
(10)
Heat stress
and relief of
human body
(3)
Extreme
heat and
respiratory
difficulties
(1)
Extreme heat
and outdoor
exercise
(2)

8. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
A climatic impact-driver (CID) is a climate condition
that directly affects elements of society or
ecosystems.
CIDs and their changes can lead to positive, negative
or inconsequential outcomes (or a mixture)
FAQ 12.1

9. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Climatic
Impact-
Driver
Heat &
cold
Wet &
dry
Wind
Snow & ice
Other
(air
pollution,
radiation)
Coastal
Open
ocean
[Disclaimer: this is not
an official figure of
the IPCC WGI Sixth
Assessment Report.
It is used here by the
author to facilitate the
explanation of CIDs
types.]

10. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Figure SPM.9
Multiple climatic impact-drivers are projected to change in all regions of
the world

11. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Relevance of CIDs
for major
categories of
sectoral assets
confidence in Section 12.3 across many studies and applications. ‘High relevance’ indicates climatic
14
impact-drivers that are most prominent and widely studied for their direct connection to assets, while
15
lower relevance indicates weaker linkages and less commonly-studied driving behaviours. Specific levels
16
of risk and opportunity depend on the changing character of regional hazards, vulnerability, and exposure
17
as assessed in WGII.
18
19
Climatic Impact-Driver
Heat and Cold Wet and Dry Wind Snow and Ice Coastal Oceanic Other
Mean
air
temperature
Extreme
heat
Cold
spell
Frost
Mean
precipitation
River
flood
Heavy
precipitation
and
pluvial
flood
Landslide
Aridity
Hydrological
drought
Agricultural
and
ecological
drought
Fire
weather
Mean
wind
speed
Severe
wind
storm
Tropical
cyclone
Sand
and
dust
storm
Snow,
glacier
and
ice
sheet
Permafrost
Lake,
river
and
sea
ice
Heavy
snowfall
and
ice
storm
Hail
Snow
avalanche
Relative
sea
level
Coastal
flood
Coastal
erosion
Mean
Ocean
temperature
Marine
heatwave
Ocean
acidity
Ocean
salinity
Dissolved
oxygen
Air
pollution
weather
Atmospheric
CO
2
at
surface
Radiation
at
surface
Sector Asset
Terrestrial and
freshwater
ecosystems
(WGII Chapter 2)
Tropical forests
Temperate and boreal forests
Lakes, rivers and wetlands
Grasslands and savanna
Deserts
Mountains
Polar
Ocean and
coastal
ecosystems
(WGII Chapter 3)
Coastal land and inertial zones
Coastal seas
Shelf seas and upwelling zones
Polar seas
Open ocean and deep sea
Water
(WGII Chapter 4)
Cryosphere reservoir
Aquifers and groundwater
Streamflow and surface water
Water quality
Food, fibre and
other ecosystems
products
(WGII Chapter 5)
Crop systems
Livestock and pasture systems
Forestry systems
Fisheries and aquaculture
systems
Cities,
settlements, and
key
infrastructure
(WGII Chapter 6)
Cities
Land and water transportation
Energy infrastructure
Built environment
Health, wellbeing
and communities
(WGII Chapter 7)
Labor productivity
Morbidity
Mortality
Recreations and tourism+
Poverty,
livelihoods and
sustainable
development
(WGII Chapter 8)
Housing stock*
Farmland*
Livestock mortality*
Indigenous traditions
20
A
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V
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N
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U
B
J
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T
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D
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S
Table 12.2
‘High relevance’
indicates CIDs that
are most prominent
and widely studied
for their direct
connection to
assets.
‘Lower relevance’
indicates weaker
linkages and less
commonly-studied
driving behaviors.

12. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Interactive Atlas
Interactive Atlas interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch

13. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Figure 12.4
Projected changes in the mean number of days per year with maximum
temperature exceeding the +35°C threshold (top panels) and the mean
number of days per year with the Heat Index exceeding the +41°C
threshold (bottom panels)

14. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Figure 12.8
Projected changes in selected climatic impact-driver indices for Central
and South America

15. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Figure 12.11
Synthesis of CID changes
projected by 2050 (2041-2060)
with high confidence, relative to
reference period (1995-2014), for
The Americas, together with the
sign of change

16. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
9 August 2021
#ClimateReport #IPCC
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
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