Population-level implications for climate change for a montane forest songbird<br />Sarah J K Frey   Allan M Strong   Kent...
Mountains & Climate Change<br />
Focal Species: Bicknell’s Thrush<br /><ul><li>High conservation concern
Vulnerable to climate change
Available data</li></li></ul><li>How will local- and landscape-scale habitat change with climate warming?<br />How might B...
Fewer & smaller patches = HABITAT LOSS (Rodenhouse et al. 2008 Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change)<br />Remaining habitat wil...
If this is happening, then BITH populations will have to respond in one of 3 ways<br />Predictions – Hypotheses<br />
Change their behavior (adapt to the new conditions)<br />Predictions – Hypotheses<br />
2. Move to a new location (latitude or elevation)<br />Predictions – Hypotheses<br />
3. Decline/go extinct<br />Predictions – Hypotheses<br />
Multi-season Occupancy Model (MacKenzie et al. 2003 Ecology)<br />Population Parameters<br />Occupancy		 Colonization<br ...
Habitat Covariates<br />Local = boreal basal area (BBA) (Beckage et al. 2008 PNAS)<br />Landscape = patch size (Lambert et...
Climcalc(http://www.pnet.sr.unh.edu/climcalc/)<br /> Mean July Temp (MJT) calculated - lat, long, elv, slp, asp<br />Curre...
Landscape:  + 1° C to MJT envelope<br />Local (BBA): MJT inc. over time (amnt. of time for 1° C inc. = 7 yrs.)<br />Northe...
Current & future (+1°C) maps of predicted habitat amount (landscape) & suitability (patch)<br />Compared amount and qualit...
Occupancy (Boreal Basal Area * Patch Size)<br />Colonization (Boreal Basal Area)<br />Extinction (Boreal Basal Area + Patc...
No time lag – once pixel moves out of MJT envelope, it is no longer available as habitat<br />Boreal basal area is a good ...
Results - Landscape<br /># of patches decreased from 128 to 29<br />Total amount of habitat reduced by 67% <br />
Results - Landscape<br /># of patches decreased from 128 to 29<br />Total amount of habitat reduced by 67% <br />
Results - Local<br />Avg. patch size increased 44.6% (90.5 to 130.8 ha)<br />Remaining patches = higher quality<br />BBA 2...
Results - Local<br />Avg. patch size increased 44.6% (90.5 to 130.8 ha)<br />Remaining patches = higher quality<br />BBA 2...
Results - Population parameters<br />occupancy<br />colonization<br />
Results - Occupancy<br />Current<br />
Results - Occupancy<br />+1OC<br />
Results - Colonization<br />Current<br />
Results - Colonization<br />+1OC<br />
Colonization least influenced by changes in landscape scale features, although total area available for colonization decre...
Results - Extinction<br />Current<br />
Results - Extinction<br />+1OC<br />
Population implications are primarily related to the total amount of habitat lost<br />Composition of montane patches alte...
Under small amounts of warming, Bicknell’s Thrush may be able to persist in the remaining high quality patches<br />&gt; 1...
Landscape - Increased Warming<br />
Landscape - Increased Warming<br />
Landscape - Increased Warming<br />
Hope for Bicknell’s<br />?<br />
70+ year dataset on Mt. Washington (NH) shows that warming at high elevations may be occurring at a slower rate than at lo...
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Population-level implications from climate change for a montane songbird, Bicknell's Thrush

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High elevation species are among those predicted to be at greatest risk from climate change. Identifying critical montane habitat patches is essential to promote conservation of these species. We examined population-level responses of a montane forest songbird, Bicknell’s Thrush, to climate warming. We combined local (stand characteristics) and landscape (patch size) scale habitat models to predict spatial and temporal distributions of habitat suitability. Using these models, we predicted probability of occupancy, local colonization and extinction across Vermont under current conditions and with a 1 deg C increase in mean July temperature. An increase of 1 deg C results in a dramatic reduction of montane habitat with substantial loss of small patches. Although there were fewer patches under the future scenario, those that remained were of highest local quality (high boreal basal area). We found that average probability of site occupancy and colonization decreased slightly, however, extinction probability increased considerably. Under limited warming, Bicknell’s Thrush could persist given favorable local habitat conditions in remaining patches; however, increases of more than 1 deg C threaten the future persistence of the species.

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  • Montane systems in the NE are relatively uncommon and their existence depends on cooler climates at high elevations, making them particularly vulnerable to climate change.
  • Since BITH is a high-elevation specialist, moving up in elevation is not a long-term viable solution
  • Uses detection/non-detection data to estimate the following parameters. 88 sites across VT were surveyed 1-3 times in 2006 & 2007
  • Boreal basal area measured at 88 sites across VT. Patch size calculated from the BITH potential habitat model .Ran 65 models => every combination of local and landscape for each parameter (single, additive, interaction). Patch size calculated from potential habitat model (potential habitat identified by presence-absence of BITH, cutoff by elevation which changes by latitude, and then pixels of coniferous dominated forest (landcover map)
  • Raster of MJT for current BITH distribution
  • AICc weight =0.16. Top 6 models within 2 AICc points of top model all very similar. Used as input variables for the metapopulation model to estimate the following parameters currently and with one degree of warming
  • Graph of the % change in the avg. parameter value between current & predicted conditions
  • Further explanation 3rd bullet = there are smaller proportions of habitat conditions favored by this high elevation disturbance specialist
  • Population-level implications from climate change for a montane songbird, Bicknell's Thrush

    1. 1. Population-level implications for climate change for a montane forest songbird<br />Sarah J K Frey Allan M Strong Kent P McFarland<br />AOU 2009 Philadelphia <br />
    2. 2. Mountains & Climate Change<br />
    3. 3. Focal Species: Bicknell’s Thrush<br /><ul><li>High conservation concern
    4. 4. Vulnerable to climate change
    5. 5. Available data</li></li></ul><li>How will local- and landscape-scale habitat change with climate warming?<br />How might Bicknell’s Thrush respond to these changes?<br />Research Questions<br />
    6. 6. Fewer & smaller patches = HABITAT LOSS (Rodenhouse et al. 2008 Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change)<br />Remaining habitat will likely change in quality (Beckage et al. 2008 PNAS)<br />alteration of successional processes<br />Predictions – Hypotheses<br />
    7. 7. If this is happening, then BITH populations will have to respond in one of 3 ways<br />Predictions – Hypotheses<br />
    8. 8. Change their behavior (adapt to the new conditions)<br />Predictions – Hypotheses<br />
    9. 9. 2. Move to a new location (latitude or elevation)<br />Predictions – Hypotheses<br />
    10. 10. 3. Decline/go extinct<br />Predictions – Hypotheses<br />
    11. 11. Multi-season Occupancy Model (MacKenzie et al. 2003 Ecology)<br />Population Parameters<br />Occupancy  Colonization<br />Detection  Extinction<br />Methods - Model<br />Between seasons<br />Colonization or extinction<br />1,2,3<br />1,2,3<br />1,2,3<br />1,2,3<br />Surveys<br />Seasons 1 2 3 4<br />Occupancy & detection<br />Within seasons<br />
    12. 12. Habitat Covariates<br />Local = boreal basal area (BBA) (Beckage et al. 2008 PNAS)<br />Landscape = patch size (Lambert et al. 2005 Wilson Bull)<br />Methods - Model<br />
    13. 13. Climcalc(http://www.pnet.sr.unh.edu/climcalc/)<br /> Mean July Temp (MJT) calculated - lat, long, elv, slp, asp<br />Current MJT envelope for BITH habitat<br />Methods – Landscape Climate Data<br />
    14. 14. Landscape: + 1° C to MJT envelope<br />Local (BBA): MJT inc. over time (amnt. of time for 1° C inc. = 7 yrs.)<br />Northeast Climate Data (www.northeastclimatedata.org) <br />A1 Scenario <br />Methods – Warming Predictions<br />
    15. 15. Current & future (+1°C) maps of predicted habitat amount (landscape) & suitability (patch)<br />Compared amount and quality of habitat <br />Estimated occupancy, colonization, and extinction now and with 1°C of warming<br />Methods – Population Predictions<br />
    16. 16. Occupancy (Boreal Basal Area * Patch Size)<br />Colonization (Boreal Basal Area)<br />Extinction (Boreal Basal Area + Patch Size)<br />Detection (Survey + Patch Size)<br />Methods - Model<br />
    17. 17. No time lag – once pixel moves out of MJT envelope, it is no longer available as habitat<br />Boreal basal area is a good indicator of local habitat quality<br />Beckage et al. 2008 model realistically represents changes in the composition of local habitat over time<br />Lambert et al. 2005 model is a realistic representation of current potential habitat availability at the landscape scale<br />Model Assumptions<br />
    18. 18. Results - Landscape<br /># of patches decreased from 128 to 29<br />Total amount of habitat reduced by 67% <br />
    19. 19. Results - Landscape<br /># of patches decreased from 128 to 29<br />Total amount of habitat reduced by 67% <br />
    20. 20. Results - Local<br />Avg. patch size increased 44.6% (90.5 to 130.8 ha)<br />Remaining patches = higher quality<br />BBA 29.1 - 60.6 m2/ha<br />Total BBA decreased 31.3%<br />
    21. 21. Results - Local<br />Avg. patch size increased 44.6% (90.5 to 130.8 ha)<br />Remaining patches = higher quality<br />BBA 29.1 - 60.6 m2/ha<br />Total BBA/patch decreased 31.3%<br />
    22. 22. Results - Population parameters<br />occupancy<br />colonization<br />
    23. 23. Results - Occupancy<br />Current<br />
    24. 24. Results - Occupancy<br />+1OC<br />
    25. 25. Results - Colonization<br />Current<br />
    26. 26. Results - Colonization<br />+1OC<br />
    27. 27. Colonization least influenced by changes in landscape scale features, although total area available for colonization decreased by 66.8%<br />Results - Population parameters<br />
    28. 28. Results - Extinction<br />Current<br />
    29. 29. Results - Extinction<br />+1OC<br />
    30. 30. Population implications are primarily related to the total amount of habitat lost<br />Composition of montane patches altered – less so than overall amount of habitat<br />Loss of lower elevation sites likely has less of an impact - represent marginal habitat (?)<br />Conclusions<br />
    31. 31. Under small amounts of warming, Bicknell’s Thrush may be able to persist in the remaining high quality patches<br />&gt; 1°C of warming may call into question the long term persistence of this species in Vermont <br />Conclusions<br />
    32. 32. Landscape - Increased Warming<br />
    33. 33. Landscape - Increased Warming<br />
    34. 34. Landscape - Increased Warming<br />
    35. 35. Hope for Bicknell’s<br />?<br />
    36. 36. 70+ year dataset on Mt. Washington (NH) shows that warming at high elevations may be occurring at a slower rate than at lower elevations (Seidel et al. 2009 Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research)<br />Hope for Bicknell’s?<br />
    37. 37. UVM <br />Strong Lab<br />Terry Donovan<br />Sara Helms-Cahan<br />Carolyn Goodwin-Knueffer<br />Funding: McIntire-Stennis<br />VCE<br />Chris Rimmer<br />Dan Lambert<br />Julie Hart<br />MBW volunteers<br />Thanks<br /><ul><li>Field Assistants
    38. 38. Juliette Juillerat
    39. 39. HéctorSlongo
    40. 40. Katie Pindell
    41. 41. Oregon State University
    42. 42. Bett’s Landscape Ecology Lab</li>

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