High elevation species are among those predicted to be at greatest risk from climate change. Identifying critical montane habitat patches is essential to promote conservation of these species. We examined population-level responses of a montane forest songbird, Bicknell’s Thrush, to climate warming. We combined local (stand characteristics) and landscape (patch size) scale habitat models to predict spatial and temporal distributions of habitat suitability. Using these models, we predicted probability of occupancy, local colonization and extinction across Vermont under current conditions and with a 1 deg C increase in mean July temperature. An increase of 1 deg C results in a dramatic reduction of montane habitat with substantial loss of small patches. Although there were fewer patches under the future scenario, those that remained were of highest local quality (high boreal basal area). We found that average probability of site occupancy and colonization decreased slightly, however, extinction probability increased considerably. Under limited warming, Bicknell’s Thrush could persist given favorable local habitat conditions in remaining patches; however, increases of more than 1 deg C threaten the future persistence of the species.