SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 35
Hurricanes and Global Warming Kerry Emanuel Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Issues ,[object Object],[object Object]
Approaches ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Historical Record
Global TC Frequency, 1970-2006 Data Sources: NOAA/TPC and NAVY/JTWC
Better Intensity Metric: The Power Dissipation Index A measure of the total frictional dissipation of kinetic energy in the hurricane boundary layer over the lifetime of the storm
Atlantic Storm Maximum Power Dissipation (Smoothed with a 1-3-4-3-1 filter) Power Dissipation Index (PDI) Years included: 1870-2006 Data Source: NOAA/TPC
Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Storm Max Power Dissipation (Smoothed with a 1-3-4-3-1 filter) Scaled Temperature Power Dissipation Index (PDI) Years included: 1870-2006 Data Sources: NOAA/TPC, UKMO/HADSST1
10-year Running Average of Aug-Oct NH Surface T and MDR SST
 
Tropical Atlantic SST(blue), Global Mean Surface Temperature (red),  Aerosol Forcing (aqua) Mann, M. E., and K. A. Emanuel, 2006. Atlantic hurricane trends linked to climate change. EOS, 87, 233-244. Global mean surface temperature Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature Sulfate aerosol radiative forcing
Best Fit Linear Combination of Global Warming and Aerosol Forcing (red) versus Tropical Atlantic SST (blue) Mann, M. E., and K. A. Emanuel, 2006. Atlantic hurricane trends linked to climate change. EOS, 87, 233-244. Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature Global Surface T + Aerosol Forcing
Physics
Energy Production: The Hurricane as a Carnot Heat Engine
Annual Maximum Potential Intensity (m/s)
Observed Tropical Atlantic Potential Intensity Data Sources: NCAR/NCEP re-analysis with pre-1979 bias correction, UKMO/HADSST1 Emanuel, K.,  J. Climate , 2007
Effect of Increased Potential Intensity on Hurricane Katrina
Projecting into the Future: Downscaling from Global Climate Models
Today’s global climate models are far too coarse to simulate tropical cyclones
Our Approach ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
200 Synthetic U.S. Landfalling tracks (color coded by Saffir-Simpson Scale)
Calibration ,[object Object]
Genesis rates Atlantic Eastern North Pacific Western North Pacific North Indian Ocean Southern Hemisphere Calibrated to Atlantic
Seasonal Cycles Atlantic
Cumulative Distribution of Storm Lifetime Peak Wind Speed, with Sample of 2946   Synthetic Tracks
Captures effects of regional climate phenomena (e.g. ENSO, AMM)
Global Percentage of Cat 4 & Cat 5 Storms
Now Use Daily Output from IPCC Models to Derive Wind Statistics, Thermodynamic State Needed by Synthetic Track Technique
1.   Last 20 years of 20 th  century simulations 2.  Years 2180-2200 of IPCC Scenario A1b (CO 2  stabilized at 720 ppm) Compare two simulations each from 7 IPCC models:
Basin-Wide Percentage Change in Power Dissipation
7 Model Consensus Change in Storm Frequency
U.S. Coastal Damage Potential
 
Summary: ,[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object]

More Related Content

What's hot

Publication_Draft_09Aug
Publication_Draft_09AugPublication_Draft_09Aug
Publication_Draft_09Aug
Kevin Schmidt
 
SC Earthday brochure revised final
SC Earthday brochure revised finalSC Earthday brochure revised final
SC Earthday brochure revised final
Sarah Harman
 
Integrating Climate Data Into Forecasting Hydrologic Inflow - Laura Blaylock ...
Integrating Climate Data Into Forecasting Hydrologic Inflow - Laura Blaylock ...Integrating Climate Data Into Forecasting Hydrologic Inflow - Laura Blaylock ...
Integrating Climate Data Into Forecasting Hydrologic Inflow - Laura Blaylock ...
TWCA
 
Climate Modeling and Future Climate Change Projections
Climate Modeling and Future Climate Change ProjectionsClimate Modeling and Future Climate Change Projections
Climate Modeling and Future Climate Change Projections
Jesbin Baidya
 

What's hot (20)

Climate Models
Climate ModelsClimate Models
Climate Models
 
Evaluating Satellite Precipitation Error Propagation in Runoff Simulations of...
Evaluating Satellite Precipitation Error Propagation in Runoff Simulations of...Evaluating Satellite Precipitation Error Propagation in Runoff Simulations of...
Evaluating Satellite Precipitation Error Propagation in Runoff Simulations of...
 
Burntwood 2013 - Why climate models are the greatest feat of modern science, ...
Burntwood 2013 - Why climate models are the greatest feat of modern science, ...Burntwood 2013 - Why climate models are the greatest feat of modern science, ...
Burntwood 2013 - Why climate models are the greatest feat of modern science, ...
 
Lesson 7 Basis for projection of climate change
Lesson 7   Basis for projection of climate changeLesson 7   Basis for projection of climate change
Lesson 7 Basis for projection of climate change
 
Internet climate adaptation and preparednessstrategy
Internet climate adaptation and preparednessstrategyInternet climate adaptation and preparednessstrategy
Internet climate adaptation and preparednessstrategy
 
OzFlux presentation
OzFlux presentationOzFlux presentation
OzFlux presentation
 
Publication_Draft_09Aug
Publication_Draft_09AugPublication_Draft_09Aug
Publication_Draft_09Aug
 
Climate downscaling
Climate downscalingClimate downscaling
Climate downscaling
 
Climate and climate modelling
Climate and climate modellingClimate and climate modelling
Climate and climate modelling
 
Uncertainty in Climate Change Projections: Results from Different GCMs/RCMs i...
Uncertainty in Climate Change Projections: Results from Different GCMs/RCMs i...Uncertainty in Climate Change Projections: Results from Different GCMs/RCMs i...
Uncertainty in Climate Change Projections: Results from Different GCMs/RCMs i...
 
Nc climate change model projections chapter final draft 06
Nc climate change model projections chapter  final draft   06Nc climate change model projections chapter  final draft   06
Nc climate change model projections chapter final draft 06
 
General circulation model
General circulation modelGeneral circulation model
General circulation model
 
Climate Modelling
Climate ModellingClimate Modelling
Climate Modelling
 
Climate Models
Climate Models Climate Models
Climate Models
 
SC Earthday brochure revised final
SC Earthday brochure revised finalSC Earthday brochure revised final
SC Earthday brochure revised final
 
Wise Sess11 102509
Wise Sess11 102509Wise Sess11 102509
Wise Sess11 102509
 
The role of the finance sector – lessons from dialogues with financial giants.
The role of the finance sector – lessons from dialogues with financial giants.The role of the finance sector – lessons from dialogues with financial giants.
The role of the finance sector – lessons from dialogues with financial giants.
 
Integrating Climate Data Into Forecasting Hydrologic Inflow - Laura Blaylock ...
Integrating Climate Data Into Forecasting Hydrologic Inflow - Laura Blaylock ...Integrating Climate Data Into Forecasting Hydrologic Inflow - Laura Blaylock ...
Integrating Climate Data Into Forecasting Hydrologic Inflow - Laura Blaylock ...
 
finalPresentation
finalPresentationfinalPresentation
finalPresentation
 
Climate Modeling and Future Climate Change Projections
Climate Modeling and Future Climate Change ProjectionsClimate Modeling and Future Climate Change Projections
Climate Modeling and Future Climate Change Projections
 

Viewers also liked (8)

Haiti earthquake
Haiti earthquakeHaiti earthquake
Haiti earthquake
 
Hurricane Katrina Short Powerpoint
Hurricane Katrina Short PowerpointHurricane Katrina Short Powerpoint
Hurricane Katrina Short Powerpoint
 
Hurricane Katrina
Hurricane KatrinaHurricane Katrina
Hurricane Katrina
 
WASTE TO ENERGY
WASTE TO ENERGYWASTE TO ENERGY
WASTE TO ENERGY
 
Haiti’s earthquake 2010
Haiti’s earthquake 2010Haiti’s earthquake 2010
Haiti’s earthquake 2010
 
Waste disposal
Waste disposalWaste disposal
Waste disposal
 
Hurrikans und Tornados
Hurrikans und TornadosHurrikans und Tornados
Hurrikans und Tornados
 
Solar energy power point presentation
Solar energy power point presentation Solar energy power point presentation
Solar energy power point presentation
 

Similar to Hurricanes and Global Warming- Dr. Kerry Emanuel

Uf01172007
Uf01172007Uf01172007
Uf01172007
tjagger
 
Topic related to the Physical Science Basis of Climate Change
Topic related to the Physical Science Basis of Climate Change Topic related to the Physical Science Basis of Climate Change
Topic related to the Physical Science Basis of Climate Change
ipcc-media
 
MonaNga scrim poster FINAL
MonaNga scrim poster FINALMonaNga scrim poster FINAL
MonaNga scrim poster FINAL
Mona Nga
 
A climatology analysis of the petrie creek catchment maroochydore australia u...
A climatology analysis of the petrie creek catchment maroochydore australia u...A climatology analysis of the petrie creek catchment maroochydore australia u...
A climatology analysis of the petrie creek catchment maroochydore australia u...
Alexander Decker
 
Mercator Ocean newsletter 33
Mercator Ocean newsletter 33Mercator Ocean newsletter 33
Mercator Ocean newsletter 33
Mercator Ocean International
 
Evaluating aboveground terrestrial carbon flux as ecosystem planning
Evaluating aboveground terrestrial carbon flux as ecosystem planningEvaluating aboveground terrestrial carbon flux as ecosystem planning
Evaluating aboveground terrestrial carbon flux as ecosystem planning
World Agroforestry (ICRAF)
 

Similar to Hurricanes and Global Warming- Dr. Kerry Emanuel (20)

SAMSI Public Lecture, The Storm Next Time: Hurricanes and Climate Change - Dr...
SAMSI Public Lecture, The Storm Next Time: Hurricanes and Climate Change - Dr...SAMSI Public Lecture, The Storm Next Time: Hurricanes and Climate Change - Dr...
SAMSI Public Lecture, The Storm Next Time: Hurricanes and Climate Change - Dr...
 
Incoming solar rediation imbalance
Incoming solar rediation imbalanceIncoming solar rediation imbalance
Incoming solar rediation imbalance
 
Projections of Future Tropical Cyclone Activity
Projections of Future Tropical Cyclone ActivityProjections of Future Tropical Cyclone Activity
Projections of Future Tropical Cyclone Activity
 
Key messages from the AR5 WGI with focus on Saudi Arabia and the region
Key messages from the AR5 WGI with focus on Saudi Arabia and the regionKey messages from the AR5 WGI with focus on Saudi Arabia and the region
Key messages from the AR5 WGI with focus on Saudi Arabia and the region
 
Uf01172007
Uf01172007Uf01172007
Uf01172007
 
Comparison of some reference evapotranspiration equations
Comparison of some reference evapotranspiration equationsComparison of some reference evapotranspiration equations
Comparison of some reference evapotranspiration equations
 
diurnal temperature range trend over North Carolina and the associated mechan...
diurnal temperature range trend over North Carolina and the associated mechan...diurnal temperature range trend over North Carolina and the associated mechan...
diurnal temperature range trend over North Carolina and the associated mechan...
 
Hurricane Threat and Risk Analysis in Rhode Island
Hurricane Threat and Risk Analysis in Rhode IslandHurricane Threat and Risk Analysis in Rhode Island
Hurricane Threat and Risk Analysis in Rhode Island
 
Slide 1+.ppt
Slide 1+.pptSlide 1+.ppt
Slide 1+.ppt
 
Climate Change Scenarios for Tourist Destinations in the Bahamas: Eluthrea
Climate Change Scenarios for Tourist Destinations in the Bahamas: EluthreaClimate Change Scenarios for Tourist Destinations in the Bahamas: Eluthrea
Climate Change Scenarios for Tourist Destinations in the Bahamas: Eluthrea
 
Topic related to the Physical Science Basis of Climate Change
Topic related to the Physical Science Basis of Climate Change Topic related to the Physical Science Basis of Climate Change
Topic related to the Physical Science Basis of Climate Change
 
MonaNga scrim poster FINAL
MonaNga scrim poster FINALMonaNga scrim poster FINAL
MonaNga scrim poster FINAL
 
Global warming
Global warmingGlobal warming
Global warming
 
A climatology analysis of the petrie creek catchment maroochydore australia u...
A climatology analysis of the petrie creek catchment maroochydore australia u...A climatology analysis of the petrie creek catchment maroochydore australia u...
A climatology analysis of the petrie creek catchment maroochydore australia u...
 
Mercator Ocean newsletter 33
Mercator Ocean newsletter 33Mercator Ocean newsletter 33
Mercator Ocean newsletter 33
 
Climchgpolicy
ClimchgpolicyClimchgpolicy
Climchgpolicy
 
Iwmo18 ueslei
Iwmo18 uesleiIwmo18 ueslei
Iwmo18 ueslei
 
Evaluating aboveground terrestrial carbon flux as ecosystem planning
Evaluating aboveground terrestrial carbon flux as ecosystem planningEvaluating aboveground terrestrial carbon flux as ecosystem planning
Evaluating aboveground terrestrial carbon flux as ecosystem planning
 
Extreme Weather in a Warming World
Extreme Weather in a Warming WorldExtreme Weather in a Warming World
Extreme Weather in a Warming World
 
Climate change prediction
Climate change predictionClimate change prediction
Climate change prediction
 

Recently uploaded

CaseThe legal victory in the turmeric patent case safeguarded traditional kno...
CaseThe legal victory in the turmeric patent case safeguarded traditional kno...CaseThe legal victory in the turmeric patent case safeguarded traditional kno...
CaseThe legal victory in the turmeric patent case safeguarded traditional kno...
alpha012343210
 
R$ 78 milhões: Estado aprova 593 propostas para acordos diretos de precatórios
R$ 78 milhões: Estado aprova 593 propostas para acordos diretos de precatóriosR$ 78 milhões: Estado aprova 593 propostas para acordos diretos de precatórios
R$ 78 milhões: Estado aprova 593 propostas para acordos diretos de precatórios
Maurílio Júnior
 
PEACE BETWEEN ISRAEL AND PALESTINE REQUIRES EXTREMISTS OUT OF POWER AND RESTR...
PEACE BETWEEN ISRAEL AND PALESTINE REQUIRES EXTREMISTS OUT OF POWER AND RESTR...PEACE BETWEEN ISRAEL AND PALESTINE REQUIRES EXTREMISTS OUT OF POWER AND RESTR...
PEACE BETWEEN ISRAEL AND PALESTINE REQUIRES EXTREMISTS OUT OF POWER AND RESTR...
Faga1939
 

Recently uploaded (20)

23052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
23052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf23052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
23052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
 
24052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
24052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf24052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
24052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
 
19052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
19052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf19052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
19052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
 
Positive Effects Of Social Media On Mental Health
Positive Effects Of Social Media On Mental HealthPositive Effects Of Social Media On Mental Health
Positive Effects Of Social Media On Mental Health
 
Meta_AI_ads_investigation.pdfldoljjwejolejolol
Meta_AI_ads_investigation.pdfldoljjwejolejololMeta_AI_ads_investigation.pdfldoljjwejolejolol
Meta_AI_ads_investigation.pdfldoljjwejolejolol
 
21052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
21052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf21052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
21052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
 
CaseThe legal victory in the turmeric patent case safeguarded traditional kno...
CaseThe legal victory in the turmeric patent case safeguarded traditional kno...CaseThe legal victory in the turmeric patent case safeguarded traditional kno...
CaseThe legal victory in the turmeric patent case safeguarded traditional kno...
 
R$ 78 milhões: Estado aprova 593 propostas para acordos diretos de precatórios
R$ 78 milhões: Estado aprova 593 propostas para acordos diretos de precatóriosR$ 78 milhões: Estado aprova 593 propostas para acordos diretos de precatórios
R$ 78 milhões: Estado aprova 593 propostas para acordos diretos de precatórios
 
Embed-4-1-1.pdf vm ;sdkp[kdp[kpdkpodp;p;j
Embed-4-1-1.pdf vm ;sdkp[kdp[kpdkpodp;p;jEmbed-4-1-1.pdf vm ;sdkp[kdp[kpdkpodp;p;j
Embed-4-1-1.pdf vm ;sdkp[kdp[kpdkpodp;p;j
 
25052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
25052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf25052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
25052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
 
PEACE BETWEEN ISRAEL AND PALESTINE REQUIRES EXTREMISTS OUT OF POWER AND RESTR...
PEACE BETWEEN ISRAEL AND PALESTINE REQUIRES EXTREMISTS OUT OF POWER AND RESTR...PEACE BETWEEN ISRAEL AND PALESTINE REQUIRES EXTREMISTS OUT OF POWER AND RESTR...
PEACE BETWEEN ISRAEL AND PALESTINE REQUIRES EXTREMISTS OUT OF POWER AND RESTR...
 
2024 - Love and Madness - a book about love, madness, heartbreak and politics
2024 - Love and Madness - a book about love, madness, heartbreak and politics2024 - Love and Madness - a book about love, madness, heartbreak and politics
2024 - Love and Madness - a book about love, madness, heartbreak and politics
 
Embed-3-1-1.pdf The ECI direction on April 2, 2024 can be read here:
Embed-3-1-1.pdf  The ECI direction on April 2, 2024 can be read here:Embed-3-1-1.pdf  The ECI direction on April 2, 2024 can be read here:
Embed-3-1-1.pdf The ECI direction on April 2, 2024 can be read here:
 
israeil_bnetaniahou_panel_report_eng.pdf
israeil_bnetaniahou_panel_report_eng.pdfisraeil_bnetaniahou_panel_report_eng.pdf
israeil_bnetaniahou_panel_report_eng.pdf
 
May 2024 - Crypto Market Report_FINAL.pdf
May 2024 - Crypto Market Report_FINAL.pdfMay 2024 - Crypto Market Report_FINAL.pdf
May 2024 - Crypto Market Report_FINAL.pdf
 
Embed-4-3 (1).pdf cvxx'f['df[p'lf][l][fl][fl][][l[
Embed-4-3 (1).pdf cvxx'f['df[p'lf][l][fl][fl][][l[Embed-4-3 (1).pdf cvxx'f['df[p'lf][l][fl][fl][][l[
Embed-4-3 (1).pdf cvxx'f['df[p'lf][l][fl][fl][][l[
 
Have A Complimentary Cheat Sheet, On Us!!!
Have A Complimentary Cheat Sheet, On Us!!!Have A Complimentary Cheat Sheet, On Us!!!
Have A Complimentary Cheat Sheet, On Us!!!
 
Minnesota Timberwolves Bring Ya Ass T Shirt
Minnesota Timberwolves Bring Ya Ass T ShirtMinnesota Timberwolves Bring Ya Ass T Shirt
Minnesota Timberwolves Bring Ya Ass T Shirt
 
Encore portal Project PPt on live portal
Encore portal Project PPt on live portalEncore portal Project PPt on live portal
Encore portal Project PPt on live portal
 
Dominican American Coalition PAC Executive Summary
Dominican American Coalition PAC Executive SummaryDominican American Coalition PAC Executive Summary
Dominican American Coalition PAC Executive Summary
 

Hurricanes and Global Warming- Dr. Kerry Emanuel

Editor's Notes

  1. Are hurricanes becoming more powerful and destructive? Are these changes due to a natural cycle of hurricane activity or are they caused by human-induced climate change? Although this is currently a hot debate among scientists, new research suggests that the destructive potential of hurricanes is increasing due to the heating of the oceans. Image: Satellite image of Hurricane Floyd approaching the east coast of Florida in 1999. The image has been digitally enhanced to lend a three-dimensional perspective. Credit: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center.
  2. This graph shows the PDI of hurricanes in the 20 th century to represent the change of hurricane intensity. This curve has been smoothed as in the previous slides.  The hurricane wind speed data used to make this graph are considered unreliable prior to 1948, the year that aircraft surveillance of hurricanes began.
  3. This graph is similar to the previous graph,  but the ocean surface temperature has been added for comparison. The low value of storm power in the early 1940s is thought to be due to the lack of reports from ships at sea because of the radio silence imposed during WWII.