The Thoughtful Forecaster

The Thoughtful Forecaster
The Thoughtful Forecaster
Case 5
A Summary Submitted to
Dr. Roy Patin,
Professor of Finance
Submitted by
Faye d'Hamecourt
In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for
Financial Administration
FINC 5713–170
Midwestern State University
Dillard College of Business Administration
Fall 2011
Date Submitted
August 31, 2011
Forecasting is an important aspect in today's business world. Every day businesses strive or lose, depending on the successfulness and accurateness of
their forecasting. For successful forecasting, the forecaster needs to have a clear understanding of the current business activities, past trends, and the
company's business strategy. Case 5 exhibits key principles on the way financial forecasting is ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Economy conditions includes trends in macroeconomic situations and circumstances in the country.
Modeling a Base–Case Forecast That Incorporates Expectations for Business Strategy

Once the forecaster contains a complete analysis of financial statement trends and environment conditions, the forecaster can the combine these into the
business' operating strategy to from a complete and proper forecast. The forecaster should also identify actions, coincidental with the business'
operating strategy for achieving these future business outcomes.
Recognizing the Potential for Cognitive Bias in the Forecasting Process
Research has indicated that financial forecasts made by humans are often systematically biased. There are two types of cognitive bias that are found in
human forecasting: optimism bias and overconfidence bias. Optimism bias is defined as a positive error in the expected number of the predicted
value. As a result of optimism bias, the predicted value is higher than the actual value. Overconfidence bias is defined as a negative error in the
expected variance of the predicted value. This means that the forecaster believes that the bell curve of the expected value will have a tight dispersion;
in reality this dispersion is much more wide spread.
The most significant issue presented in Case 5 is the section on cognitive bias. It is interesting to learn that humans are systematically biased when
predicting the future of a business enterprise.
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Value Line
VALUE LINE PUBLISHING,
OCTOBER 2002
Teaching Note
This case follows the performance–review and financial–statement–forecasting decisions of a Value Line analyst for the retail–building–supply industry
in October 2002. The case contrasts the strong operating performance of Home Depot with the strong stock–market performance of Lowe's. Students
examine a financial–ratio analysis for Home Depot that acts as a template to generate a comparable ratio analysis for Lowe's. The students' ratio
analysis is designed to build intuition with respect to interpreting individual ratios as well as ratio inter–relationships (e.g., the DuPont framework). The
historical–performance comparison suggests that investors are skeptical of the ability ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
The students should come to realize that the return–on–capital figures should be evaluated relative to a market–based benchmark, the weighted average
cost of capital. Relative to the WACC calculated in case Exhibit 2, Home Depot is beating its benchmark (12.3 percent), while Lowe's is below its
benchmark (11.6 percent). The class may comment on the justification for differences in the cost–of–capital estimates for firms that appear so similar
in their risk profiles.
Using a DuPont–type decomposition, the instructor can use the available ratio analysis to peel back the differences in operating performance in
margins and turnover. The instructor can also use this time to build understanding of the economic content of financial ratios. The students should have
used the Home Depot analysis in case Exhibit 7 to build their own ratio analyses of Lowe's. Exhibit TN1 provides a comparison of the 2001 figures
for both companies, which can be the focus of the discussion. Exhibit TN2 provides the entire five–year analysis for Lowe's as reference. The
discussion is likely to highlight that, across almost any dimension, Home Depot has outperformed Lowe's on an operating basis in 2001.
This discussion can be contrasted with the stock–market performance. Over the past year, shares in Lowe's have performed considerably better than
those of Home Depot. The instructor can query the

Forecasting Methodology
Forecasting Methodology
Forecasting is an integral part in planning the financial future of any business and allows the company to consider probabilities of current and future
trends using existing data and facts. Forecasts are vital to every business organization and for every significant management decision. Forecasting,
according to Armstrong (2001), is the basis of corporate long–run planning. Many times, this unique approach is used not only to provide a baseline,
but also to offer a prediction into the corporation 's future. In the functional areas of finance and accounting, forecasts provide the basis for budgetary
planning and cost control. Marketing relies on sales forecasting to plan new products, compensate sales personnel, and ... Show more content on
Helpwriting.net ...
Causal tries to understand the system underlying and surrounding the item being forecast. Under Causal type there are Regression analysis, Econometric
models and Leading indicators. Starting with Regression analysis, similar to least squares method in time series but may contain multiple variables,
basis is that forecast is caused by the occurrence of other events. Econometric models the forecast attempts to describe some sector of the economy by
a series of interdependent equations. An input/Output model focuses on sales of each industry to other firms and governments; it indicates the
changes in sales that a producer industry might expect because of purchasing changes by another industry. Leading Indicators type are statistics
moving in the same direction as the series being forecast but move before the series, such as an increase in the price of gasoline indicating a future
drop in the sale of large cars.
Simulation Models are dynamic models; Dynamic modeling in organizations is the collective ability to understand the implications of change over
time. This skill lies at the heart of successful strategic decision process. The availability of effective visual modeling and simulation enables the analyst
and the decision–maker to boost their dynamic decision by rehearsing strategy to avoid hidden pitfalls.
Global Insight is a privately held company formed from the two most respected

Analysis Of PV, Battery And DER System
PV, Battery and CHP modification Class Diagram of PV PV The class diagram above shows the representation of a PV DER system with its logical
nodes as properties. It is important to point out that a PV may have additional logical nodes or components based on its description. The
representation above is a reflection of the implementation to be used in conducting our HUAS lab test. The diagram is an extension to that of
deliverable 6.2.2. The modifications allowed for the DER systems to be functional and object oriented. From a programing perspective it seemed that
some encapsulation was missing and as such some of the attributes of the classes were changed from public to protected or private where deemed
necessary. Additional... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
The 96 values are then written to the DER server(via JPB––>iec61850) where the registry reads them (via iec61850–––>JPB) and makes a printout for
comparison and then writing them to the registry's database. Once written to the database the aggregator reads all 96 values (via the rest API) and
selects what it would like to use as set points. After selecting the desired value(s) it is then written directly to the DER server (iec61850–––>JPB ) as a
set point for the logical device the availability represents. Lastly the smart gateway is notified that of the change in the DER server and a check is
made to see if that was the value sent by the aggregator. Smart Gateway ( Node RED) This is the flow representing the communication between the
Java Python Bridge and the Smart Gateway (realized on Node–RED). There are mainly three main streams of communication are based on (1)
Receiving a setpoint, (2) Returning a status from the respective Device and (3) Updating the schedule with 96 values. 1. The setpoint is received
with an address or a specific reference to which device that should be controlled as well as whether if it is a simulation or a live test. Then the SG
accordingly processes this message into a suitable format for the following nodes in the flow. And finally sends the setpoint to the respective Flow in
which the recipient device is being managed. 2. Each of these devices will respond accordingly to the setpoint given and as soon as the given
command from

Value Line
VALUE LINE PUBLISHING, OCTOBER 2002 Teaching Note This case follows the performance
–review and financial–statement–forecasting
decisions of a Value Line analyst for the retail–building–supply industry in October 2002. The case contrasts the strong operating performance of Home
Depot with the strong stock–market performance of Lowe's. Students examine a financial–ratio analysis for Home Depot that acts as a template to
generate a comparable ratio analysis for Lowe's. The students' ratio analysis is designed to build intuition with respect to interpreting individual ratios
as well as ratio inter–relationships (e.g., the DuPont framework). The historical–performance comparison suggests that investors are skeptical of the
ability of... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
On the chalkboard, the students can fill out the following analysis, highlighting how the assumptions must vary to reduce 2002 ROC to the WACC of
12.3 percent. The discussion should highlight that ROC can be reduced through a decrease in NOPAT of $707 million or an increase in capital of
$5,746 million. It is no surprise that the required increase in cash operating expenses/sales equals the required decrease in gross margin as both
changes decrease NOPAT by the same amount. The discussion should also emphasize how the different asset accounts affect total capital differently.
The P&E turnover is particularly important, while the receivable–turnover figure has little impact. | |ROC = 15.1% |ROC = 12.3% | |Gross margin
|32% |30.2% | |Cash operating exp./sales |21% |22.8% | |Receivable turnover |55Г— |9.3Г— | |Inventory turnover |5.3Г— |3.1Г— | |P&E

Mergers and Acquisitions: Biases and How to Avoid Them
Introduction Mergers and acquisitions are a very important part of today's corporate finance. It is seen as an important tool for the expansion of a
company and to further its growth prospects. CEOs of big companies wish to actively participate in M&A processes to turn the enterprises into big
conglomerates, thereby achieving profits and gains from the acquired firms in the future. M&A activities however involve a long and complicated
procedure of decision–making and this process is fraught with a lot of biases. Empirical evidence has shown that most of the acquiring firms fail to
reap the expected profits from M&A activities. In a study conducted by Schoenberg in 2006, he found out that executives of the acquiring firms
believe that only 56% of their acquired targets can be considered as successful acquisitions based on the original objectives set forth for them. It is thus
surprising why the corporate world sees extensive M&A activity in–spite of the adverse effect of acquisitions on the returns of the acquirers'
shareholders because of the lofty acquisition premiums. Roll (1986) came up with the 'hubris hypothesis' that tried to explain the psychological
bedrock of M&A failures by pointing at 'CEO hubris' as one of the crucial and important reasons of CEOs overpaying for their acquisition targets. Later
in 1997, Hayward and Hambrick in their study also found out several indicators that associated CEO hubris with the high premiums paid for
acquisitions. Though

Analysis of Target's Quality Management and Logistics Systems
Analysis of Target's Quality Management and Logistics Systems
Introduction
Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT) is the leading large–format general merchandise and discount retailer in the U.S., challenging Wal–Mart in
electronics, toys and apparel while also seeking to differentiate with higher–end fashions and products for an upscale audience. As of the close of their
latest fiscal year (FY2011), Target operated approximately 1,760 stores encompassing 233,000 square feet in 49 states and the District of Columbia.
The company is divided into the retail and credit card divisions and moves the majority of its products through a highly integrated network of 37
different distribution centers, which include four food distribution centers. Target is one of the most well–entrenched large format retailers in the U.S.,
has the ability to manage their pricing strategies at a level of accuracy and precision that is comparable to Wal–Mart (Henderson, 2001). Unlike
Wal–Mart, Target concentrates on a value–based message that concentrates on quality and price differentiation to sustain their gross margins while
Wal–Mart concentrates on supply chain efficiency and a continual reduction of supplier and transaction costs (Krishnamurthi, 2001).
Analysis of Quality Management Procedures in TargetLogistics
Target is considered by many experts and industry analysts as the leading retailer using distributed order management systems, including their ability to
continually make the Sales &

Jos. Schlitz Brewing Company Winston
Table of content
Introduction 3
Company profile 4
Specific operating information 8
Process management 8
Quality 8
Forecasting 9
Capacity 9
Inventory 10
Scheduling 10
Recommendations 12
Recommendations of inventory 12
Recommendations of forecasting 12
Conclusion 15

Reference 16
Introduction
This report is based on the plant information of Jos. Schlitz Brewing Company's sixth brewery, which located near Winston– Salem, North Carolina.
The purpose of this report is to show the brewery's operation management, analysis and critique the plans and actions of the organization, and point out
some disadvantages in the operating.
The following report is to introduce the brewery's profile and production process, which include brewing ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Fermentation is undoubtedly the most important stage to achieve the taste of the beer, because while sugar transformation into alcohol and carbonic
gas takes place, yeast produces other substances in very small quantities, which are responsible for the aroma and flavor of the beer. The development
of chemical analysis procedures that took place during recent years allowed a more comprehensive understanding about beer composition. It is
therefore during the fermentation process that the beer style is created. This process normally will take a month.
These two steps are shown by figure 1.
Figure 1
The packaging process occurs after the fermentation. The beer flows to the keg, canning, and bottling lines when it our of the government cellar. There
are five canning lines, three bottling lines, and a keg line can be run in the Winston– Salem brewery. The capacity for can lines is 1300 cans per minute,
for bottle lines is 900 bottles per minute, and for keg line is 340 half– barrels per hour. For the five can lines, all the brands of beer can be canned at the
same time, or one brand of beer can be canned with two different types at the same time. For three bottle lines, different bottle shapes and sizes can
be filled at the same time, and new bottles and returnable bottles can be separated when filling and packaging. The packaging process also can be
divided into two steps: 1. filling and capping and 2. pasteurizing. The packaging will

How Does Lovallo And Kahneman 's Inside View?
Question 1) How does Lovallo and Kahneman's "inside view" ("Delusions of Success") differ from the "outside view"? Contrast the entrepreneur and
venture capitalist. How can a firm or organization maximize the extent to which its managers take the "outside view" in their decisions? Individuals
and organizations are often influenced by the "inside view" when making decisions. Excessive optimism leads decision makers to budget, plan for, and
forecast outcomes of important projects based on their specific views of the unique project at hand. They often feel that they are most aware of all the
special considerations that go along with their project; they understand its objective, the resources they brought into it, the obstacles to its completion,
along with constructing in their minds scenarios of their progress and extrapolating current trends into the future. Interestingly, each individual has both
the perspective of the inside view as well as the "outside view." The outside view, also known as reference–class forecasting, is the more generalized
view that we can take, when we consider the forecasts and respective outcomes for analogous situations with a similar class of decision making
criteria or objectives. It is more natural for individuals to adopt the inside view when making decisions. However, taking the outside view is the
beneficial approach, as it often results in more accurate and reliable forecasts. The entrepreneur and venture capitalist are on two sides of the

Global Wine War 2009: New World vs. Old World Competitors
Global Wine War 2009: New World versus Old
1.Discuss critically the competitive advantages of New World wine producers and contrast these against their Old World competitors.
The New World wine producers including Australia, Argentina, Chile, South Africa, and the United States have several strategic advantages over their
Old World competitors. Most significant is how each of the wine producers in New World competitive economies are free to innovate, creating
disruption and value creation that are redefining centuries–old processes. In the best–selling book The Innovator's Dilemma (Christensen, 2007) Dr.
Clayton Christensen of Harvard University discusses how new market entrants, unencumbered by decades or in some cases centuries of government
intervention and high cost structures, can quickly overtake a market and establish market dominance. The role of disruptive innovation in redefining
value chains is a core message of his research and book (Christensen, 2007). This is exactly the same dynamic occurring between the New World and
Old World wine producers. At the center of the New World win producing nations' competitive advantage is the freedom and immediate economic
benefits of innovation.
The scope of the innovation expertise that New World wine producers have is value–chain wide in scope, and in–depth enough to completely re–order
manufacturing, fermentation, distribution channel, pricing, marketing and customer service (Cholette, 2009). New World wine producers

Personal Statement: The Purpose Of Art And Design
I've been highly interested in art since 6. I loved drawing on my exam sheets and school books, sketching fantastic thoughts and comic stories.
However, I had never realized the purpose of art and design until getting into high school. Inspired by activist artists Guerrilla Girls mentioned by
the teacher in art class, I found art could serve as a useful tool to advocate social issues like feminism. Others critical knowledge I had learnt is color
theory and art directing. By analyzing fantasy movies and ingenious commercial films, I understood the process of design could be rational and
rigorous, and the works could include cultural symbols and personal experience. I'm so enthusiastic about art that I refused my parents' suggestions of
applying an elite law institute and determined to major in communication in university when I was 19. When watching my works, people always say
they can feel a unique subjective emotion and notice the powerful stories and meanings I express. This is because I've developed most design skills
not only from formal art education but from interaction with people when studying communication as well. Before designing, I tend to spend lots of
time defining... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
In this project, I came up with a bold idea to design movie posters by making an amazing background full of newspaper practically rather than using
computer visual effect. Also, I tried my best to set the main scene of this film. In order to present the sombre atmosphere of the entire newspaper office,
I researched the lighting and color grading from Hong Kong gangster films and Taiwanese dramas, interviewing journalists and investigating process of
producing news. 'Anything But Truth' won an award of 5th Macau International Micro–movie Festival (Macau, 2015) and was selected in 14th The
International Student Film&Video Of Beijing Film Academic (Beijing, 2015) and several film festivals in

Supply Chain Strategy Essay
TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:1 2.MISSION OF THE COMPANY:2 3.SUPPLY CHAIN MODEL OF SCHNEIDER:3
4.PROCESSES AT SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC:5 5.PURCHASING OR PROCUREMENT:7 6.MANUFACTURING OR PRODUCTION:7
7.INVENTORY MANAGEMENT:8 8.DISTRIBUTION:9 9.MODES OF TRANSPORTATION:9 10.STRUCTURE SHARED BY SCHNIEDER
WITH SUPPLIERS:10 11.TERMS AND CONDITIONS TO OPTIMIZE CAPABILITIES IN SUPPLY CHAIN PROCESS:11 12.STRATEGIES
EMPLOYED FOR AN EFFECTIVE SUPPLY CHAIN MODEL:12 13.EXISTING PROBLEMS AND WEAKNESSES IN THE CURRENT
PROCESSES AND ADDITIONAL CAPABILITIES NEEDED TO BE DEVELOPED:14 14.PROCESS RESTRUCTURING AND CHANGE
MANAGEMENT:15 15.REFERENCES16 1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Schneider Electric, a global company of French origin was founded in
1836.It specializes in energy management. The company's believes in having a strategic purchasing strategy and because of that they have more
than 100 brands .These brands have built the groundwork for the energy management solution in which they excel. It is one of the most leading
energy experts in many fields. They have with more than 120,000 employees working for them and they are spread over 100 countries and have a
sale of 19.6 billion euros in (2010) in over 200 countries. The company was among the 330 biggest companies in the world on 2011 Fortune Global
500 annual rankings of the world's largest corporations. They have transformed from the

Global Supply Chain Management Assignment: Fine Fruit Cake...
GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT Q2. FINE FRUIT CAKE COMPANY A. Monthly and annual capacity for fine country fruit cake
company. 1.Calculations . a.In calculating the monthly and annual capacity, the following assumptions have been made: The Company works for
five days each week There are four weeks in each month The opening stock of 100 cakes of each size on 1st of January is not considered while making
the calculations b.From the question, we know that all production is done in batches of 10 kg of only one size of cakes at a time. Therefore we can
either have a batch of ten cakes of 1kg each or 5 cakes of 2 kg each. If we assume that the... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
In the case of Fine Fruit Cake Company, we know that the company's policy is not to stock cakes more than 3 months old. We also know that
available storage space is for about 3000 kg in the cool room. To evaluate possible reasons for the company having to sell stock at reduced prices, we
need to calculate whether accumulated stock exceeds capacity, resulting in lack of storage space– if production was maintained at a steady rate while
sales diminished, there could have been a reduction in storage space requiring the company to sell its products at a reduced price. If we assume an
optimum total monthly production capacity of 800 Kg (400 Kg each of 1 kg and 2 Kg cakes), the accumulated production situation for the year would
present as in Table 3 below. As an example, the net stock for the month of January is calculated by adding opening stock (this was obtained from
information in the question– since the company had 100 cakes of each size) to the monthly production, and subtracting the sales from this total as:
(Opening stock + Production) – Sales =Net stock. The net stock for the previous month is then carried over to the opening stock for the following
month. Table 3: Net stock and age of stock in months for the year 2011 WEIGHT OF CAKES (KG)MONTH OF PRODUCTION, 2011
JANFEBMARAPRMAYJUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDEC OPENING STOCK

Google Prediction Markets Essay
Part I: Briefly evaluate how Google's Prediction Markets have worked to date. To what extent have the markets been successful or unsuccessful? 250
When the five Googlers got together to start with this project, their main objective was to launch an internal prediction market and test if crowds
would make more accurate predictions than individuals'. To determine if this project was a success or not we need to determine our parameters of
success. Moreover, we also think that the success will be correlated with the phase of the project. From the case we can see that this project is still
going through its first steps, despite the system has been running for seven quarters. To measure success, we need to evaluate; first, how accurately the
... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Endorsement effect. By default, the decision makers will tend to continue with what they are actually doing (if the market is not diverse enough this
bias cannot be corrected, if everyone asked is in Goggle then they might be influenced by this type of bias). Under what conditions are prediction
markets most likely to perform relatively well and relatively poorly? 417 Efficient functioning of prediction markets, within the context of a
corporation like Google, would depend on the following three aspects: a) Volume of participants: By the nature of market–based decision–making, we
would need large and diverse set of participants. Larger participation set will eliminate various biases discussed earlier. Liquidity (ability to trade) will
allow participants to calibrate their bets and decisions based on new information. b) Diversity: Diversity of thought, perspective and motives within the
participation set is also very important for prediction markets. Google should encourage participation from different geographies, different teams,
varied level of seniority and demographics. This will create a market where participants interpret information and signals in different ways so that the
collective action normalizes for any bias. This diversity will eliminate any overconfidence in decision–making and will provide a valuable "outsider"
view. The issue of diversity is quite important in closed markets (e.g. Google). This issue is amplified when

Quality Improvement
Quality Improvement
Jolene Williams
University of Phoenix
Quality Improvement The equipment department of Washington Group International has a large task of purchasing, maintaining, tracking, transporting
and selling of all large company equipment of more than $5,000. While all of these processes are manual intensive and can be improved upon, this
paper will address the maintenance process. Included with a "As–Is" flow chart will be a process relationship, customer impact, key items to be
monitored, helpful quality management tools, and opportunities for improvement. Finally, proposed improvements, level of improvement, and
relevance to UOP simulation will be discussed.
Description
Currently, the maintenance process of ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
This will lead to a decreased down time of equipment.
Quality Management Tool Failure Modes and Effect Analysis (FMEA) would be a good tool for collecting and presenting data on this process. An
FMEA is a process that helps to identify the possible failure modes of a process or product. This determines the effect on related sub–items and on the
function of the product or process (Enterprise Solutions Competency Center, 2006).
Improvement Opportunities An FMEA would show how all the pieces of the process effects the other pieces of the process. The analysis would show
how the data tracking of the meter readings would benefit the maintenance process and allow for predictive measures and forecasting. The tracking of
the meter readings allows for a predictive maintenance schedule to be produced and followed. Once on a predictive maintenance schedule, equipment
is taken care of and remains in operating condition. A maintenance schedule also helps to retain the resale value of equipment. By having a predictive
mode and forecasting repairs, much last minute scrambling and money will be saved.
Proposed Improvements The new process would go as follows.
В•Meter readings are to be taken at the end of each shift and turned in to the office clerk.
В•Office clerk is to compile all readings and fax or email daily to the equipment department for data entry and tracking.
В•Database will track and set up

Designing New Ranges And Collections Essay
Introduction
A fashion design portfolio is a collection of samples put together by a fashion designer to show off his or her skills to prospective employer or fashion
school. A typical fashion design portfolio should include fashion illustrations, an inspiration or mood board with textile swatches, flat sketches and
floats. Research methods are the processes used to collect information and data for the purpose of making decisions, may they be in business or
otherwise. The methodology may include publications, research, interviews, surveys and other techniques which may include both present and
historical information.
Research Methods
The processes involved in designing new ranges and collections normally begin with researching and gathering information. Fashion designers have
limited training in research and rarely conduct studies thus resulting in intuitive and subjective judgements. Contributing to such problems is the
limited amount of time available to conduct the research and the heavy costs involved in designers gathering information.
As a result, research methods which can be used by fashion designers include trade shows, forecasting, publications, catwalk shows, directional
shopping trips, cultural events, historic sources, music and media and the internet. In essence, designers need to draw upon a diverse range of
information to inform their decision–making during the process of range planning and development. The type of product and the

Global Supply Chain Management And Its Application Within...
Introduction/Forward This term paper focus on my experience and the knowledge gain during the fall 2016 semesters. The paper discusses the
general topic on Global supply chain management and its application within the business sector. In addition, to the general topic discussed, I
would also focus on the some of my experience doing the class and how those experience and knowledge gained can help me in the future. In my
further reflection of the paper I had focused on some topics that I found easier to complete and other topics that did challenge me. My reason of
giving a reflection on those topics that were challenging and those that was easier for me, is to give a balance of my experience of the class and
lesson learn doing the semesters. To recap, on the course I would say, the course was great and comprehensive in general. Over the few months getting
to study and understand topics such as, the field of operation and management, Product & process Design, six sigma Quality and SQC, Strategic
Capacity Management, Forecasting system, Facility Layout, Sales and operation planning, Inventory Management, Material Requirement Planning,
WorkCentre Scheduling and Waiting and Simulation was a mind changing for me.
The study field of Operation Management, strongly give me an understanding of how operation management can best be used to help design, improve
and operate an organization system that deliver the best output for creating

Simulation Reflection Paper
Over the past three weeks in the University of Phoenix Marketing Management class, I have completed three simulations based on real life marketing
situations. The first simulation was titled, "Forecasting Market Demand." This simulation discussed the importance of determining the future demand
for your product in the voice commanded software industry. The marketing team for the new Listensoft software needed to accurately forecast the
production capacity of the new product and the pricing strategy. This task is especially difficult because human behavior is difficult to predict.
Forecasting behavior "В…is about generating numbers out of expectations, opinions, statements, prior patterns and a host of other subjective elements"
(Forecasting... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
A comparable industry I have determined would be the movie sales and rental industry. The pricing of my items also will need to be compared to
other larger retailers to ensure I am remaining within the industry average selling price, and the industry trade price. Service Added Based
Differentiation In mature markets such as the luxury car industry, different companies own the market shares already. These companies sell similar
items at comparable prices, so the key to success is to differentiate their item by adding a service that customers feel is valuable. I found the Service
Added Based Differentiation Simulation very difficult. My results were less than optimal every time I attempted something different. My first
attempt at the differentiation was to add the GPS System in all of the Camyo vehicles. My decision was poor because it appeared not to have added
a higher value perception within my target market. The customers were able to assign a value to the GPS system, therefore it was not the best option.
Although my actual unit sales were not optimal on my initial attempt, the profitability of the car was high since I raised the price. My second decision
was made based upon the recommendation to add more than one option. Therefore I added the GPS system and the weekly car wash. The customers
viewed the

An Internship Report On Production Of Graphite Electrodes...
AN INTERNSHIP REPORT ON PRODUCTION OF GRAPHITE ELECTRODES & POWER GENERATION DURATION: 45 DAYS From May 15,
2015 to June 30, 2015 SUBMITTED TO: SUBMITTED BY: MRS. P.SUMATI GAJENDRA MALVIYA HR, HEG LTD. MANDIDEEP 4th YEAR
DEPARTMENT OF ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING, INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY ROORKEE, UTTARAKHAND
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT First and foremost, I would like to express gratitude to NLDC, Power System Operation Corporation Ltd (POSOCO) for
providing me a magnificent opportunity in the form of this dissertation to learn. The report bears the imprints of many people. There are many kinds
of helping hands, to which I owe my sense of gratitude. So, I express my appreciation to all those, whose thoughts and insights helped me in
understanding and completing my training. First of all I would like to thank my training guide Mr. Pradeep Reddy, who helped me throughout my
project. I express my sincere gratitude to Miss Bindiya Jain– HR for her stimulating guidance,

Product Strategy of Usps
Product Strategy of the U. S. Postal Service
Dwaynell Lowe
Strayer University
Operations Management
Dr. Phyllis Parise
November 15, 2015
Product Life Cycle Product life cycle refers to the stages that a product. Changes in demand for the product is the factor that delineates the changes
from one cycle to another (Daft & Sanders, 2012). The typical product life cycle has four identifiable stages; * Introductory Stage–characterized
by the launching of a new product. * Growth Stage–highlighted by strong growth and profits. * Maturity Stage–the product is well established and the
organization seeks to maintain market share. * Decline Stage–the market for the product shrinks.
The United State Postal ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
From 2007 to 2012 USPS posted net losses in excess of $41 billion with much of that driven by fuel costs. It currently spends $3.3 billion on highway
contracts, while spending only $40 million on freight rail contracts. USPS should consider shifting part of its mail volume to rail. By making this
change it has been estimated that USPS could save at least $100 million per year. Additionally, "because of its lesser sensitivity to fuel price increases
and greater control of its own infrastructure, rail transportation has major, long–term strategic advantages over highway" (Berman, 2012).
Total Quality Management Total Quality Management (TQM) is an organizational approach that seeks to identify and eliminate the root causes of
issues that undermine quality whether in a manufacturing or service organization. As stated previously USPS as a product is in a state of decline and
must find ways to eliminate barriers to attaining its service commitments. Package delivery is a sector of its market in which it has remained
competitive with private carriers such as UPS and FedEX. To continue to compete and excel in the package delivery arena USPS must insure that it
eliminates barriers to meeting and or exceeding on time delivery expectations. Therefore, I would suggest the use of control charts to determine the
cause of packages being delivered outside the upper control limit. The upper control limit for

Essay On Rain Prediction
Fuzzy logic techniques for prediction of rainfall Rainfall is a stochastic process that depends on temperature, humidity and winds. To obtain accurate
rainfall prediction the above said factors should be well maintained and controlled. For this purpose a number of methods have been proposed. Fuzzy
inference is used for mapping I/P and O/P sets with a set of fuzzy rules. Fuzzy inference is performed in four steps fuzzification, rule evaluation,
aggregation of rule outputs and then defuzzificztion. Fuzzy rule based model provides ductility in modeling the blurred relationship between input and
output variables. Data mining techniques Data... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Works done using clustering techniques Clustering is a process in which cluster of homogenous objects are made on the basis of their similarity in
logic and characteristics. Clustering methods involve partitioning methods, hierarchical agglomerative methods, the single link method (SLINK), the
complete link method (CLINK), the group average method, and text based documents. This part of paper highlights works related to clustering
techniques carried for weather forecasting in past: Kavita.P et al. used weather data set of Bangladesh to present a model for predicting the weather
using K– means clustering by analyzing temperature at atmospheric pressures with 400 hpa, 500 hpa, and 700 hpa. Badhiye S.S.et al. provided an
approach using clustering techniques for future prediction of temperature and humidity. The clustering analysis was used to partition data by taking the
similarity of objects into consideration. K–Nearest Neighbor algorithm was used. Absolute distance and Euclidean distance measuring was used to
obtain distances between datasets in K– Nearest Neighbor algorithm. Sanjay Chakarborty et al. proposed a methodology for time series forecasting
through clustering. Incremental K– means clustering was used for this methodology. Air pollution data was collected from "West Bengal air pollution
control

Advantages And Disadvantages Of Demand Forecasts
Demand forecasting
Abstract:
1.Identify methods useful for predicting demand in various situations
2.Warn against methods that shouldn't be used
3.Guidelines and examples to improve efficiency of other organizations that don't use these methods by adopting these forecasting practices.
It has been recorded that formal forecasts are prepared by firms because they have a written marketing plan, the most popular among these firms is the
sales forecast. A common mistake used by people is that sales and demand acquire the same definition while in fact, demand and sales equate only
when sales aren't limited by supply. Sometimes it is appropriate to forecast demand directly, while other times where uncertainty and changes are
expected market ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
But no research directly tests the forecasting ability of game theory.
5)Judgmental decomposition: (no feedback)
It involves dividing the forecasting problems into parts that are easier to forecast than the whole, one approach is breaking it down into multiplicative
components. It has a number of advantages as it is used when there is much uncertainty about the aggregate forecast, when large numbers are involved
and it has proven to be more accurate than those of global approach.
6)Judgmental bootstrapping: (no feedback)
It is a type of expert system which can be useful for repetitive complex forecasting problems when historical data on the variable to be forecasted are
lacking or of poor quality. It is more accurate the aided judgment.
7)Expert system: (no feedback)
It is designed to solve complex problems by reasoning about knowledge by rules experts use to make predictions, these rules are created from protocols.
Expert system is aided by: expert opinion, conjoint analysis, bootstrapping.
The rules used are from experts and empirical research. This method is expensive and used when many similar forecasts are derived from the system.
Self Judgment
A)Role

Budget Managment Analysis
Budget Management Analysis
Christina Hewett
University of Phoenix
Financial Resource Management
NUR/571
Ralph Gigliotti
August 03, 2013
Budget Management Analysis
"Finance should be a fundamental nursing administration content area to meet the growing need for nurse managers with core competencies in
financial and budget management" (Finkler, Kovner, & Jones, 2007, p. 476). Health care organizations depend on nurse managers to budget the
finances of his or her department appropriately. Budget management analysis includes evaluation of departmental and organizational financial concerns
to include forecasting, benchmarking, and cost variance. The purpose of this paper is to determine specific strategies to manage budgets within ... Show
more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Changes in input services, 2. Changes in input productivity (efficiency), and 3. Changes in departmental volume" (Clerverley & Cameron, 2007,
p. 360).
Another expense results with budget expectations is capital purchases. Capital purchases are those that cost an organization more than $5,000. Such
purchases include radiology equipment, lab equipment, computer systems. Unexpected expenses occur when equipment failure occurs and a need for
new or repaired equipment arises or when unexpected volumes of patients require additional capital purchases of equipment to be made. "Working
capital management is the role of the manager, in ensuring that there is adequate cash on hand to meet the organization's needs and minimizing the cost
of those resources" (Finkler et al., 2007, p. 360). Variances occur when multiple unexpected costs arise and that reserved cash is expended and needs to
assume short–term loans or take away from other departments is necessary. This type of unexpected spending may be categorized as an unfavorable
variance. Unfavorable variances are "variances in which more is spent than the budgeted amount" (Finkler et al., 2007, p. 501).
Individual departmental occupancy is yet another expense result with budget expectations. Forecasting allows department managers to predict, based
upon historical data, certain occupancy rates of each department is expected each month. Variances occur when the occupancy is

Forecast Essay
1. Select one industry from the list below: The select one industry from the list below is restaurant 2. What specific variables would be needed by
that organization in order to forecast? Be sure you explain "why" you selected each variable and why it is important to forecasting.. Sales forecasts
are common and essential tools used for business planning, marketing, and general management decision making. A sales forecast is a projection of
the expected customer demand for products or services at a specific company, for a specific time horizon, and with certain underlying assumptions. A
separate but related projection is the market forecast, which is an attempt to gauge the size of the entire market for a certain class of goods or... Show
The simplest example would be to consider the influence of widely observed macroeconomic indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP) and
employment rates. A simplistic model of market growth might indicate that based on time–series data from the past decade the restaurant market tends
to grow at one and one–tenth times the rate of GDP when the national unemployment rate is less than 7 percent, and at four–fifths of the GDP growth
rate when unemployment is greater than 7 percent. Suppose an analyst wishes to create a two–year forecast for the national restaurant business. Using
published estimates from government or private sector economists, the analyst might learn that next year's GDP is expected to grow at 2.9 percent
and unemployment is expected to register at 6.7 percent. The following year, however, GDP growth is expected to slow to 1.9 percent and
unemployment is expected to rise to 7.6 percent. Using the simple model outlined, the forecast for next year's restaurant sales growth would be based
on the first condition observed, namely that market growth is somewhat (10 percent) higher than GDP growth when unemployment is relatively low. In
other words, the first year's forecast would be 1.1 Г— 2.9, or 3.19 percent restaurant market growth. In the second year, the second condition would
come into

Sales and Operations Planing
Sales & Operation Planning
Adrian Rader
American Public University
Kristopher Bradshaw
Sales & Operation Planning Sales and operation planning sets the foundation for any successful business. In order to succeed a company must be
prepared from the beginning and set the groundwork or procedures it will follow. From customers to sales and marketing to developing, the sales and
operations planning is designed to set up all the plans for every aspect of the business. The process in done is phases and tasks must be done before
everyone can come together at the first meeting. Meetings must be set up well in advanced to allow everyone involved adequate time to prepare their
part of the meeting. The process has been becoming more ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
The Thune and Ansoff studies supported the use of long–range planning. In the Thune study, they gathered information from "36 firms representing six
industries" (Rue & Fulmer, 1973, 67). He placed each of the plans from the responding firms in two different categories, formal and informal.
Five different criteria were used to measure each of the plans to determine the effectiveness. His hypothesis was that companies who use long–range
planning are more successful and he backed up and confirmed his theory with the companies that are involved in the "drug, chemical, and machinery
industries" (Rue & Fulmer, 1973, 67). The Ansoff study dealt more with the companies in manufacturing and their acquisitions. He received 93
replies in the 412 he sent out. He used 21 different criteria in his study and found that the companies who did not plan did not have as much success as
those that did. (Rue & Fulmer, 1973, 67–68) Leslie Rue from Indiana University and Robert Fulmer from Trinity University conducted their own
study to see if it makes a difference financially to do long–range planning. They also wanted to determine if it was important to use more sophisticated
techniques. They categorized the company's plans in to 4 different categories that ranged from no plan to very detailed planning. They then placed each
into their own class of financial performance: sales growth, earning growth,

Sample Resume : Inventory Management Essay
ERP Assignment– CIA 2 Inventory Management Goods Issue Goods Receipt BY Nancy Castelino (07) Shamine Fernandes (14) Class: TYBSc.I.T
Submitted On: 29/01/2016 INVENTORY MANAGEMENT The Meaning Of The Word 'Inventory'. Inventory / warehouse are the goods and materials
that a business /organization holds for the ultimate purpose of sale. Inventory Management Inventory management is a science of specifying the Shape
Percentage (%) of stocked goods. It is essential at many stages in the supply network for regular & planned functioning of production and stock of
goods. Scope of inventory management Replenishment lead time Carrying costs of inventory Asset management Future inventory price forecasting
Physical inventory Available physical space for inventory Quality management Returns and defective goods Demand forecasting Involves a retailer
seeking to acquire and maintain a proper merchandise assortment while ordering, shipping, handling, and related costs are kept in check. It also
involves systems and processes that identify inventory requirements, set targets, provide replenishment techniques, report actual and projected
inventory status and handle all functions related to the tracking and management of material. MAIN REASONS FOR KEEPING AN INVENTORY
1.Time – The distance between the supplier and the customer can vary in many scenarios this requires that you maintain certain amounts of inventory
to use in this lead time.

Briggs Distributing Case Study
Company Information
The company that I selected for my project is where I currently work. Briggs Distributing. The company was founded in 1934 by Fred Briggs in
1951 Pete Decker joined Fred Briggs and the company has been in the Decker family since then. It is now owned by John Decker and his two
children both work for the company. Briggs Distributing is a distribution company that distributes Miller/Coors, and many other products to local bars,
convenience stores, and grocery stores. There are currently about 70 employees that work for Briggs Distributing. I will be reviewing the selection
process for all of the positions at Briggs Distributing. These positions include, office staff, truck drivers, sales staff, warehouse and merchandising ...
Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
I think that they do a thorough job in making sure that the position are promoted from within and the easier to fill entry level positions are filled
by external job posting sources. With the filing of open positions through the promotion process when necessary this creates an environment that
employees will want to be in as they have the potential to move up the ladder. The planning process of what positions need to be filled and if it is
cost effective to fill these positions is very through and makes sure that there is not wasted expense. The way that the managers and human
resources at Briggs Distributing do a good job of planning for future need. In the interviewing process the way that they ask redundant questions is a
good way to show if someone is honest or not as their answers will show reliability. Most people do not realize when an interviewer asks the same
question in a different manner. If the candidate is truthful the interviewer will get the same answer no matter how they ask the question. As I have
went through the interview process with three interviews they are very through in their process. I applied for my position through one of the external
websites, after I applied I actually went on the company website so that I could learn what the history of the company was and what the position might
entail. I had my first interview with Jim, it was then decided that I would

Fine Fruit Cake Company Case Study
GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT Q2. FINE FRUIT CAKE COMPANY A. Monthly and annual capacity for fine country fruit cake
company. 1.Calculations . a.In calculating the monthly and annual capacity, the following assumptions have been made: The Company works for
five days each week There are four weeks in each month The opening stock of 100 cakes of each size on 1st of January is not considered while making
the calculations b.From the question, we know that all production is done in batches of 10 kg of only one size of cakes at a time. Therefore we can
either have a batch of ten cakes of 1kg each or 5 cakes of 2 kg each. If we assume that the company can produce an average of 2 batches each of... Show
C. CHANGING MARKETS Currently, Fine Fruit Cakes Company sells its cakes mostly to cafes and restaurants. In trying to increase sales to
crafts shops and tourist centres, the following advantages and disadvantages need to be considered: Advantages Crafts shops and tourist business
would offer more flexibility and may not require goods at short notice as compared to cafes and restaurants; this would reduce pressure on the
company's production. The new markets would probably not demand discounts, (such as those demanded by restaurants), allowing higher profit
margins They would also probably require goods in smaller sizes (1 kg cakes as compared to 2 kg cakes). As discussed previously, such a change
in the 'mix' of products would result in higher profits since 1 kg cakes take less time to produce due to their shorter baking time. A look of the trends
in sales reveals that there is a strong seasonal influence on sales; there are significantly higher sales figures in the months of March, October and
November, with the highest recorded sales are in December, reflecting a heavy demand for cakes during Easter and Christmas seasons. This would
probably change if the company focused on these new outlets; production would probably level out during the rest of the year and increase during
tourist (summer) months resulting in an alternative, non–peak demand. As a result, the company would be

Kevin Tenorio. Dr. Stoycheva. Pol 601 Budget Analysis And
Kevin Tenorio
Dr. Stoycheva
POL 601 Budget Analysis and Financial Management
3 May 2017
Final Exam
1.How has the property tax changed over time for local governments? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the property tax as a revenue
source? In response to these questions, make sure to refer to the main principles of taxation (equity, efficiency, adequacy of revenue, political feasibility,
and cost of administration), tax and expenditure limitations, as well as the importance of revenue diversification for local government.
Historically, property taxes have been the primary source of the local government's income. In fact, approximately 70% of the local governments'
revenue stems from property taxes (Lee, Johnson, and Joyce, ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
This could lead to that individual moving to another location, also known as gentrification. Political feasibility is high since it has historically been a
consistent source of revenue. Cost of administration would be relatively low since property taxes, in terms of keeping track of properties, is relatively
easy because of its tangibility and lack of mobility.
With respect to revenue diversification, local governments have attempted to diversify their sources of revenue by implementing one or a
combination of these taxes: sales taxes, income taxes, game of chance taxes (gambling, races, lotter, and their derivatives), user charge taxes, and
sumptuary taxes (cigarettes, alcohol, and their derivatives) (Lee, Johnson, and Joyce, 2013). In circumstances that affect the primary source of
revenue, having access to other sources may serve as a buffer for the local government. However, the problems with these sorts of taxes is uncertainty.
Property tax, as stated earlier is the most reliable while income or sales taxes rely on income/ salaried employees and consumption of products,
respectively.
2.Explain the major forecasting methods used by governments to forecast revenues and expenditures. Explain Florida's experience with the consensus
forecasting process. Discuss which methods are more likely to be used and for what revenue

John Moody Case Study Essay
John Moody
What should be done to turn around the Organization?
Charlotte Wilson
Chancellor University
Abstract
This paper explores a case study in which an organization went into a recession and had to reorganize everything. I will be explaining how recession
works and what happens in a recession. I will also talk about planning and organization of a business. We will also explore what people have to do
when in a recession.
John Moody
What Should be Done to Turn Around the Organization
Often time's people in this country today, take for–granted the comfort they have established over the past several years. A booming economy and a
bull market has set the standard for today's society, giving us an optimistic outlook for ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
The second dimension is tangibles which are things like physical facilities, equipment, personnel, communication materials, etc. The third dimension is
responsiveness, as the company needs to make sure they are giving the customer the most adequate service, as well as promptly giving that service. The
fourth dimension is assurance, which is when a company conveys trust and confidence so the consumer does not have to worry about their service
being completed. The last dimension is empathy; because consumers do not want an uncaring person handling a mistake when they are stressed
enough, but much rather have a caring employee deal with the matter. All of the quality dimensions are really focused around keeping your product
or service where it has been without raising costs, as well as keeping a healthy customer service sector on board to work through troubling economic
times where consumers do not want to worry about services that have been loyal to them in the past. (Hartlet et al., 2008, p. 34,36,121) (Hollis, 2008,
p. 3–4)" One of the most common techniques used to assess an organization's performance is the Gap Analysis. According to Harvey and Brown (2001)
this tool is typically used to assess an organization's response to opportunities in its environment. During

The Four P's of Marketing
The Four P's of Marketing
The Four P's of Marketing The first P that the paper will address is Product. Professionals, researchers, and students of marketing must understand the
importance of crafting the right product to satisfy the needs of the intended consumer. This P has a lot to do with the product, from design to
production to distribution. This P also has a great deal to do with the consumer. Professionals and organizations ofmarketing must know the target
consumer very well. When the marketing professional or marketing firms has an extremely clear concept of the intended consumer, they will be in a
strategically stronger position to introduce a new product or service. (Ehmke et al, 2005) The next P of marketing the paper shall address is price.
Successful marketing includes marketing the right product to the right audience at the right price. If the marketing professional knows the target
consumer very well, then he/she will be in a strong position to predict and assign a price to such a product. Knowing the target demographic for a
new product must include financial and class information as people of different classes have different tastes, different needs, different aesthetic
preferences, and different kinds of access to products. (Vargo & Lusch, 2004) The third P in the four P's of marketing is Place. The right product for
the right customer at the right price must be located at the right location. All of the P's are contingent on the amount and quality

Zenith-case summary
Objective: analyze the case offered and answer the following questions.
Background: Zenith, a well–known electronics corporation in North America market, was facing options regarding high definition television (HDTV),
a new technology that offer consumers higher resolution (i.e., sharper pictures) and superior digital stereo sound. The company had to forecast the
marketing perspective and deicide what ways could be used to assess consumer preferences for the new product.
1. What factors will determine the success of HDTV?
As the next generation of TV technology, no doubt, HDTV would achieve technical mature in the near future. But is there also a promising market in
the near future? What are the determinants of successful ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
So, my recommendation is that Zenith can use historical data as references for forecasting purpose by analogy, but should do extra researches to revise
the results by analogy.
3. What research would you conduct if you were in Zenith's position?
If I were in Zenith's position, I would prefer to conduct the following researches that seem to be the key factors determining the success for the
innovation and also to be the uncertainty reflecting risks in the marketplace:
Market demand and growth forecasting: Zenith can't completely rely on historical data to forecast market demand and growth. It must do extra
researches to ensure a more accurate estimate for the demand and growth model. The necessary researches should include past data analysis; current
demand estimating; future demand estimating; survey of buyer's intentions; sales forecasting; and gathering of expert's opinions......
Price test: although HDTV manufacturers may focus mainly on middle–class as their initial target market segment, the industry used to be price
sensitive. So, a proper pricing strategy can maximize market share, and stimulate market demand. A price test becomes necessary to help to figure out
a suitable price

Revenue Management
Vol. 9, No. 3, May 2009, pp. 135–139 issn 1532–0545 09 0903 0135 informs В® Additional information, including supplemental material and rights
and permission policies, is available at http://ite.pubs.informs.org. I N F O R M S Transactions on Education doi 10.1287/ited.1090.0033ca © 2009
INFORMS Case Article Introductory Integrative Cases on Airline Revenue Management Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth College, Hanover, New
Hampshire 03755, robert.shumsky@dartmouth.edu Robert A. Shumsky T his case article summarizes two case series. Each case series includes three
subcases and has an associated teaching note. These six short cases introduce many of the concepts that underlie the practice of airline revenue... Show
Although the case templates and solutions are built with the simulation package Crystal Ball, another simulation package or the spreadsheet's builtin
random number generator may be used. Likewise, to use Network Revenue Management (A)–(C), the students must already be familiar with
optimization. Although the case solution is built with Solver, other optimization packages may be used. The cases require basic spreadsheet modeling
augmented with spreadsheet add–ins. Table 3 lists the required add–ins as well as optional software tools. We have used Crystal Ball for Monte Carlo
simulation (Oracle 2009), Solver for optimization (Frontline 2009), and the Sensitivity Toolkit for simulation and optimization sensitivity analysis
(Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth 2009). The optional tools listed in the fourth column of Table 3 make solving the problems easier, e.g., by
speeding up the search for an optimal protection level. All of the cases, however, can be used without the optional tools. 3. What Is New in These
Cases and What Is Not? 2. Where Can These Cases Be Used? BlueSky Airlines: Single–Leg Revenue Management (A) has been used in a number of
MBA introductory operations management classes. All three single–leg cases have been used in an MBA service operations management elective. The
three network cases have been used in an MBA core decision science class. In general, the cases are appropriate for introductory MBA classes in
operations management,

Essay on Supply Chain---Tingtao Beer
SUPPLY CHAIN CASE STUDY–
TSINGTAO BREWERY
Course Code: OMGT 1021
Course Name: Supply Chain Principles
Students:
Date of Submission: 13/10/2006
TABLE OF CONTENT
Executive Summary4
1. Introduction6
1.1 Investigation6
1.2 Objectives6
1.3 Assumptions7
1.4 Scope7
2. Current Situation8
2.1 Tsingtao brewery–marketing and business strategy8
2.2 Tsingtao brewery–supply chain policy and strategy9
2.3Tsingtao brewery–supply chain management....................................................11
3. IssuesIdentified12
3.1 Distribution network12
3.2 Information flow13
3.3 Inventory level14
4. Analyses15
4.1 SWOT Analyses–––the current situation of Tsingtao beer supply chain15
4.1.1 Strengths:15
4.1.2 Weaknesses:15

4.1.3 Opportunities:16 ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
1.3Assumptions
It is assumed that the logistics strategies outlined in this report would apply to any divisions in Tsingtao Brewery. As such, it is also assumed that other
divisions run very similar supply chain management systems to that of South China Sales Company. The final assumption is that investment by the
Tsingtao Group in the supply chain is a very manageable investment for them.
1.4 Scope
The scope of this investigation is limited to a pure academic exercise of Supply Chain Analysis in a real world situation. Even though, the study aims
to provide insight on how to improve Tsingtao's Supply Chain. The report is also limited to a specific division in South China. This method was
chosen to enable detailed analysis of a current supply chain in action. Moreover, anglicizing on the Tsingtao's supply chain in general would be too
complex, and therefore not generate meaningful outcomes or strategies. In addition, the availability of information limits the study to a suggestion of a
series of broader initiatives.
2. Current Situation
2.1 Tsingtao Brewery–marketing and business strategy
China has become the second beer market in the world today. Tsingtao Brewery is the top beer manufacturer in China. The Tsingtao Brewery was
founded in 1903 by German settlers in Qingdao, China.

Essay about Marriott Rooms Forecasting
Marriott Rooms Forecasting Executive Summary In the case of the Hamilton hotel, Snow needs to make a decision as to if 60 additional rooms
reservations should be accepted which could lead to overbooking (Weatherford & Bodily,1990). It is a problem of capacity utilization that is being
faced in this particular case where revenue maximization is aimed while minimizing customer dissatisfaction. In this report the case is put forward and
various methods have been chosen to come to a sensible conclusion. Firstly the raw data provided is used and the exponential smoothing model (ESM)
is used to predict the outcome of guests on Saturday the 22nd of August. Next basic statistics are used and standard deviation is calculated with which
the... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
This would be used to forecast Saturdays adjusted pickup ratio taking into consideration the valleys and peaks of demand, which cannot be
forecasted. Finally the forecast of the adjusted pickup ratio will be multiplied by the Saturday DOW index to get the unadjusted pickup ratio
(Weatherford & Bodily,1990). Issue Statement The center of the case is to come to a decision as to the 60 additional rooms reservation is to be
accepted. How managers are to maximize revenue capacity and predict efficient forecasts to make good decisions when handling reservations in the
case of demand increasing forecasting and overbooking decisions if they are detrimental to customer loyalty. Analysis of the Problem The main
problem in this case is maximizing capacity utilization. An offer for 60 additional reservations to be accepted or not is the question to which Snow, the
reservation manager has though of examining the problem through Snow's technique. One is to have a good forecast of the pickup ratio, which can be
multiplied to the Tuesday bookings to get the estimate of the demand. One has to obtain the forecast of adjusted pickup ratio, which can be multiplied,
to the Saturday DOW Index to obtain the unadjusted pickup ratio. Here is is trying to eliminate the DOW effect that exists and average the demand
through the week (Weatherford & Bodily,1990). Then the

Budgeting and Control: Analysis of E Krell's Article 'The...
Budgeting and Control The article, "The Case Against Budgeting" explains how the budgeting process has essentially become obsolete in the current
business climate. Krell explains that many businesses feel that the budgeting process takes too much time and when it's finally completed the final
product is usually less than desirable (2003). "Businesses need more agile forecasting and reforecasting capabilities, but the organizational barriers to
those capabilities are formidable" (Krell, 2003). Krell reviews the most common reasons that most budgets fail; it's usually a hybrid of reasons from
shoddy strategic planning, to an inability of the management to take strong corrective action, to a general absence of faith in the budget, resulting in
an overwhelming amount of apathy (2003). Krell describes how ineffective budgeting can be toxic to a company, creating a state of overaggressive
assumptions leading to decreased morale within employees, cash flow conflicts, consistent disappointment and necessary reforecasting, surprises in
earnings, postponed capital acquisition, and developing a state where bad decisions are made over and over again (2003). Krell clearly highlights
how perilous bad budgets can be for an organization, both fiscally and for the atmosphere and sense of accomplishment. Krell uses the article as a
means of emphasizing how proper performance management processes and tools can assist in reallocating the time of financial planners and analysts
(2003).

Applying Personal Managerial Accounting Problems
Applying Work Experience to My Courses
Oluyemisi Banwo
Sullivan University
MGT 596/597/696/697: Graduate Externship Class
November 9, 2015
Courses I am Taking This Quarter
Currently I am taking two non–externship classes. They are:
1.ACT510Z–AGAC02S–01–Accounting Theory for Management Decisions, by Dr. Miller which is a hybrid class; and
2.FIN540X–A1–07–Managerial Finance by Dr. Anne which is a fully online class
Outcomes from my first course ACT510Z to My Workplace
The course outcomes for the ACT510Z–AGAC02S–01–Accounting Theory for Management Decisions – by Dr. Miller (Sullivan University, 2015a,
P1) are:
Solve various managerial accounting problems
Utilize critical thinking skills in addressing various managerial ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
This and many more are items we put into consideration.
I am applying lessons learned from this course to think critical before making a decision, if a contarct with a client would be profitable or not.
3.Apply various communication skills in addressing managerial accounting issues, including ethical decision making.
Having a good communication skill is very important in the course of my job especially as a foreigner. I take particular attention to details when
sending emails to clients and ensure I am being understood clearly with my accent.
I am applying various lessons I have learnt from this course to project about to information, such as with the use of power point presentation or various
excel reports.
Outcomes from my second course FIN540X to My Workplace
The course outcomes for the FIN540X–A1–07–Managerial Finance by Dr. Anne (Sullivan University, 2015b, p1) are:
Determine the value of assets and securities using discounted cash flow techniques
Measure risk and factor it into asset valuation
Determine how the firm should finance its fixed assets

Calculate option values for simple financial options
Use option pricing models to value options embodied in capital investments
1.Determine the value of assets and securities using discounted cash flow techniques.
A discounted cash flow method commonly used is NPV. It is simple and considers cash flows but it fails

Cost Benefit Analysis ( Cba )
1.Introduction
In the recent years, Cost benefit Analysis (CBA) has been connected to different ranges of strategies and tasks. Indeed, with research of CBA was
conducted into two wide areas of work. One area which undertaken to defined the technical–economic reasons for supporting CBA and then again there
are studies which completes empirical evaluations over the performance of test of CBA.
For every business and IT that has developed projects, they have to make good decision on whether the projects will have costs and benefits and to
determine it is important to supplement such as cost effectiveness analysis with CBA tool to help with strategy deciding. Pearce et al (2006), CBA is a
tools that business analysts use to figure out if ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
According to Bhatt et al, (2010 in Dehning 2002, Davis & Stratopoulos, 2003) mentions that analysts in the IT field contend that a model may not be
specifically pertinent to IT expenses which can be mean that the reappearance from IT costs is difficult to measure which makes it more hard to figure
it out ROI or comparable models for IT expenses.
2.Cost Benefit Analysis
Cost benefit analysis has been around for many years while serving a great purpose to any business or IT due its wide range of innovative
strategies. According to Levin and McEwan (2001, p.14) Cost benefit analysis is a tool that evaluates to the assessment of choices as indicated by
their costs and benefits when each is measured in economic terms. However Prest and Turvey defined cost benefit analysis as a "practical way of
assessing the desirability of projects, where it is important to take a long view (in sense of looking at repercussions in the further, as well as the
nearer, future) and a wide view (in the sense of allowing for side–effects of many kinds of many persons, industries, regions, etc.) i.e it implies the
enumerations and evaluation of all the relevant costs and benefits".
The aim of CBA is to put a monetary values on the benefit anticipated from the project and difference the costs which are relied upon to

Who is AvonвЂљГ„Гґs target market? How can it be segmented?
Case Study Measuring Systematic Risk For the first chart, we can measure the systematic risk. Systematic risk is defined as the risk that cannot be
diversified away. The systematic risk of an individual asset is really just a measure of the relation between the returns on the individual asset and the
returns on the market. Now, we draw a 45o line across the origin as the picture. The the line shows the company's performance when the measure stay
at the same systematic risk as market. From this chart, we can see the points above the line are less than the points under the line and most of the
points under the line are close to the line. Therefore, we can get that at the same systematic risk as... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Secondly, the error may be greater than 0 or may be less than 0. The last but not the least important, except variable being –1, Forecast error is around
0, in other words, the forecast in these two chart is acceptable. Therefore, the error in these two chart can be used. We can use them as a reference.
However, we must consider when the variable equals –1 and if possible, we should find the reason and correct it. Also, the low error means this
business has a low risk, it basically can develop as the plan. But variable being –1 is an instability. We should pay more attention to it when we think
about this chart. Return on investment (ROI) Return on investment (ROI) is the concept of an investment of some resource yielding a benefit to the
investor. A high ROI means the investment gains compare favorably to investment cost. As a performance measure, ROI is used to evaluate the
efficiency of an investment or to compare the efficiency of a number of different investments. In purely economic terms, it is one way of considering
profits in relation to capital invested. From this chart, we can get that the investment return from 1955 to 1984 is stable, the return is not far from 0.
However, after 1984, the return is more and more unstable, the amplitude of chart is bigger and bigger, which means investor will have a higher risk in
this investment. They can earn a lot but they also can lose a lot. And until 2008, this trend

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