China is transitioning to a low-carbon economy by reducing its reliance on coal and increasing renewable energy sources like solar and wind. In 2013, coal made up 66% of China's energy structure but has been declining 1% annually in recent years. China has committed to peaking its carbon emissions by 2030. Under current policies, coal consumption may peak in 2023 and carbon emissions in 2028. Stricter policies could see coal peaking in 2020 and carbon in 2024. By 2030, China aims for renewable energy to make up 20% of its energy structure, with non-fossil fuels at 15%. Reforms are needed across China's energy sector to support this transition to a more sustainable energy future

1. China’s Transition To
A Low-carbon Economy
Lin Boqiang

2. China’s energy structure in 2013
Coal
66.0%
Oil
18.4% Natural gas
5.8%
Hydro
7.6%
Nuclear
0.9%
Renewable
1.3%
Non-
fossil fuels
9.8%

3. China energy consumption in 2014
I. Coal consumption declined by 2.9%;
II. Oil consumption increased by 5.9%;
III. Natural gas consumption increased by 8.6%;
IV. Electricity consumption increased by 3.8%.
Solar increased 10.5 GW; Wind increased 19.5 GW

4. China’s large incremental of CO2 emissions in recent years
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
US EU Germany
Japan India China
Trend of China’s CO2 emission and international comparison
(Unit: million tonnes)
For comparison, China's CO2 emissions in 2013
was 9.5 billion tonnes.

5. US-China joint commitment and China’s energy action plan
I. China’s commitment to CO2 emission peak by 2030;
II. Energy action plan (2014-2020), by 2020——
a. energy consumption is limited to 4.8 billion tce;
b. non-fossil fuel needs to be 15%;
c. energy self-sufficiency rate must be more than 85%.

6.  Coal in primary energy share declined by 1%
each year in the last four years:
Over supply in capacity:
Estimated current capacity
is 5 billion ton
Coal consumption in 2014
was 3.5 billion ton, down by
2.9%
China’s energy action
plan limits 2020 coal
consumption at 4.2
billion ton.
Coal is in trouble
China’s coal sector is
under a painful transition.

7.  Clean energy, especially nuclear, is needed for
low-carbon transition. By 2020:
 hydropower: 350 GW
 wind power: 200 GW
 biomass: 20 GW
 nuclear power: 58 GW
 solar power: 100 GW
What will happen to clean energy
 hydropower: 302 GW
 wind power: 95.8 GW
 biomass: 8.7 GW
In 2014:
 nuclear power: 19.9 GW
 solar power: 26.5 GW

8. Coal consumption peak is a condition for CO2 peak
4,233
4.554
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
4.500
5.000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Strict governance General governance
 China's coal consumption could peak in 2023
at 4.5 billion tonnes under current environmental
governance scenario;
 In a more strict environmental governance
scenario, coal consumption could peak in 2020 at
4.2 billion tonnes, in 2020.
Main uncertainties:
 Clean coal utilization
 Development of coal-to-
gas and coal-to-oil
capacities
China's coal consumption and its peak (Unit: million tonnes )

9. China’s CO2 emission and its peak
11667
13042
9000
11000
13000
15000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Strict governance General governance
 China's CO2 emission could peak in 2028 if coal consumption peaks
at 2023;
 China's CO2 emission could peak in 2024 if coal consumption
peaks at 2020;
China’s CO2 emission and its peak (Unit: million tonnes)

10. What could be China’s future energy structure
coal
59.0%
Oil
16.0% Natural gas
10.0%
Hydro
8.2%
Nuclear
2.9%
Renewable
3.9%
Non-fossil fuels
15.0%
YEAR 2020:

11. What could be China’s future energy structure
Coal
49.7%
Oil
17.2%
Natural gas
13.1%
Hydro
8.5%
Nuclear
6.0%Renewable
5.5%
Non-fossil fuels
20.0%
YEAR 2030:

12.  Clean energy, especially nuclear, is needed for
low-carbon transition. By 2030:
 hydropower: 420 GW
 wind power: 310 GW
 biomass: 30 GW
 nuclear power: 130 GW
 solar power: 190 GW
What will happen to clean energy

13. How to ensure China's energy security
Renewable energy, unconventional gas and oil all need to be encouraged
to ensure a 85% self-sufficiency rate .
YEAR 2013
 energy self-sufficiency
rate: 90.3%.
Coal: 92%;
Oil: 42%;
Natural gas: 68%.
YEAR 2020
 energy self-sufficiency rate :
85%, which could imply :
Coal: zero net coal import;
Oil: 38%;
Natural gas : 55%.

14. What need to be done form policy perspectives
What need to be done?
 Energy sector reforms;
 Mixed ownership reform forcing state-owned energy enterprises;
 Energy pricing reforms;
 Energy regulatory reform;
Reforms will support transition of energy companies.
 Energy efficiency is the future growing point for energy companies;
 Improve efficiency requires energy sector and energy price reforms
What are the conditions for the reforms?
 Slower economic growth and energy demand;
 Lower and more stable energy prices (particularly coal price);
 Air pollution clean up;

15. Thank you!
Contact:
Lin Boqiang bqlin@xmu.edu.cn