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Roadmaps to prevent x risks 2- presentation

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X-risks prevention roadmap

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Roadmaps to prevent x risks 2- presentation

  1. 1. A Roadmap: Plan of action to prevent human extinction risks Alexey  Turchin   Existen1al  risks  Ins1tute   h5p://existrisks.org/
  2. 2. X-risks Exponential growth of technologies Unlimited possibilities Including destruction of humanity
  3. 3. Main x-risks AI Synthetic biology Nuclear doomsday weapons and large scale nuclear war Runaway global warming Nanotech - grey goo.
  4. 4. Crowdsoursing Contest: more than 50 ideas were added David Pearce and Sakoshi Nakamoto contributed
  5. 5. International Control System Friendly AI Plan B Survive the catastrophe Leave Backups Study and Promotion • Study of Friendly AI theory • Promotion of Friendly AI (Bostrom and Yudkowsky) • Fundraising (MIRI) • Teaching rationality (LessWrong) • Slowing other AI projects (recruiting scientists) • FAI free education, starter packages in programming Solid Friendly AI theory • Human values theory and decision theory • Proven safe, fail-safe, intrinsically safe AI • Preservation of the value system during AI self-improvement • A clear theory that is practical to implement Seed AI Creation of a small AI capable of recursive self-improvement and based on Friendly AI theory Superintelligent AI • Seed AI quickly improves itself and undergoes “hard takeoff” • It becomes dominant force on Earth • AI eliminates suffering, involuntary death, and existential risks • AI Nanny – one hypothetical variant of super AI that only acts to prevent existential risks (Ben Goertzel) Preparation • Fundraising and promotion • Textbook to rebuild civilization (Dartnell’s book “Knowledge”) • Hoards with knowledge, seeds and raw materials (Doomsday vault in Norway) • Survivalist communities Building • Underground bunkers, space colonies • Nuclear submarines • Seasteading Natural refuges • Uncontacted tribes • Remote villages • Remote islands • Oceanic ships • Research stations in Antarctica Rebuilding civilisation after catastrophe • Rebuilding population • Rebuilding science and technology • Prevention of future catastrophes Time capsules with information • Underground storage with information and DNA for future non-human civilizations • Eternal disks from Long Now Foundation (or M-disks) Preservation of earthly life • Create conditions for the re-emergence of new intelligent life on Earth • Directed panspermia (Mars, Europe, space dust) • Preservation of biodiversity and highly developed animals (apes, habitats) Prevent x-risk research because it only increases risk • Do not advertise the idea of man-made global catastrophe • Don’t try to control risks as it would only give rise to them • As we can’t measure the probability of glob- al catastrophe it maybe unreasonable to try to change the probability • Do nothing Plan of Action to Prevent Human Extinction Risks Singleton • “A world order in which there is a single decision-making agency at the highest level” (Bostrom) • Worldwide government system based on AI • Super AI which prevents all possible risks and provides immortality and happiness to humanity • Colonization of the solar system, interstellar travel and Dyson spheres • Colonization of the Galaxy • Exploring the Universe Controlled regression • Use small catastrophe to prevent large one (Willard Wells) • Luddism (Kaczynski): relinquishment of dangerous science • Creation of ecological civilization without technology (“World made by hand”, anarcho-primitivism) • Limitation of personal and collective intelligence to prevent dangerous science Global catastrophe Plan D Improbable Ideas Messages to ET civilizations • Interstellar radio messages with encoded human DNA • Hoards on the Moon, frozen brains about humanity Quantum immortality • If the many-worlds interpretation of QM is true, an observer will survive any sort of death including any global catastrophe (Moravec, Tegmark) • It may be possible to make almost univocal correspondence between observer survival and survival of a group of people (e.g. if all are in submarine) Unfriendly AI • Kills all people and maximizes non-human values (paperclip maximiser) • People are alive but suffer extensively Reboot of the civilization • Several reboots may happen • Finally there will be total collapse or a new supercivilization level Interstellar distributed humanity • Many unconnected human civilizations • New types of space risks (space wars, planets and stellar explosions, AI and nanoreplicators, ET civilizations) Attracting good outcome by positive thinking • Preventing negative thoughts about the end of the world and about violence • Maximum positive attitude “to attract” positive outcome • Secret police which use mind superpowers to stop them • Start partying now First quarter of 21 century (2015 – 2025) High-speed tech development needed to quickly pass risk window • Investment in super-technologies (nanotech, biotech) • High speed technical progress helps to overcome slow process of resource depletion • Invest more in defensive technologies than in offensive Improving human intelligence and morality • Nootropics, brain stimulation, and gene therapy for higher IQ • New rationality: Bayes probabilities, interest in long term future, LessWrong • High empathy for new geniuses is needed to prevent them from becoming superterrorists • Many rational, positive, and cooperative people are needed to reduce x-risks • Lower proportion of destructive beliefs, risky behaviour, • Engineered enlightenment: use brain science to make people more unite, less aggressive; open realm of spiritual world to everybody • Prevent worst forms of capitalism: desire to short term money reward, and to change rules for getting it. Stop greedy monopolies Saved by non-human intelligence • Maybe extraterrestrials are looking out for us and will save us • Send radio messages into space asking for help if a catastrophe is inevitable • Maybe we live in a simulation and simulators will save us • The Second Coming, a miracle, or life after death Timely achievement of immortality on highest possible level • Nanotech-based immortal body • Mind uploading • Integration with AI Miniaturization for survival and invincibility • Earth crust colonization by miniaturized nano-tech bodies • Moving into simulated world inside small self sustained computer Rising Resilience AI based on uploading of its creator • Friendly to the value system of its creator • Its values consistently evolve during its self-improvement • Limited self-improvement may solve friendliness problem Bad plans Depopulation • Could provide resource preservation and make control simpler • Natural causes: pandemics, war, hunger (Malthus) • Birth control (Bill Gates) • Deliberate small catastrophe (bio-weapons) Unfriendly AI may be better than nothing • Any super AI will have some memory about humanity • It will use simulations of human civilization to study the probability of its own existence • It may share some human values and distribute them through the Universe Strange strategy to escape Fermi paradox Random strategy may help us to escape some dangers that killed all previous civilizations in space Interstellar travel • “Orion” style, nuclear powered “generation ships” with colonists • Starships which operate on new physical principles with immortal people on board • Von Neumann self-replicating probes with human embryos Temporary asylums in space • Space stations as temporary asylums (ISS) • Cheap and safe launch systems Colonisation of the Solar system • Self-sustaining colonies on Mars and large asteroids • Terraforming of planets and asteroids using self-replicating robots and building space colonies there • Millions of independent colonies inside asteroids and comet bodies in the Oort cloud Space Colonization Technological precognition • Prediction of the future based on advanced quantum technology and avoiding dangerous world-lines • Search for potential terrorists using new scanning technologies • Special AI to predict and prevent new x-risks Robot-replicators in space • Mechanical life • Preservation of information about humanity for billions of years • Safe narrow AI Resurrection by another civilization • Creation of a civilization which has a lot of common values and traits with humans • Resurrection of concrete people Risk controlTechnology bans • International ban on dangerous technologies or voluntary relinquishment (such as not creating new • Lowering international confrontation • Lock down all risk areas beneath piles of bureaucracy, paperwork, safety requirements • Concentrate all bio, nano and AI research in several controlled centers • Control over dissemination of knowledge of mass destruction • Control over suicidal or terrorist ideation in bioscientists • Investments in general safety: education, facilities, control, checks, exams • Limiting and concentrating in one place an important resource: dangerous nuclear materials, high level scientists Technology speedup • Differential technological development: develop safety and con- • Laws and economic stimulus (Richard Posner, carbon emissions trade) Surveillance • International control systems (like IAEA) • Internet control Worldwide risk prevention authority • Worldwide video-surveillance and control • “The ability when necessary to mobilise a strong global coordinated response to anticipated existential risks” (Bostrom) • Center for quick response to any emerging risk; x-risks police a system of international treaties • Robots for emergency liquidation of bio-and nuclear hazards Active shields • Geoengineering against global warming • Worldwide missile defence and anti-asteroid shield • Nano-shield – distributed system of control of hazardous replicators • Bio-shield – worldwide immune system • Mind-shield - control of dangerous ideation by the means of brain implants • Merger of the state, Internet and worldwide AI in uniform monitoring, security and control system • Isolation of risk sources at great distance from Earth Research • Create, prove and widely promote long term future model (this map is based on exponential tech development future model) • Invest in long term prediction studies • Comprehensive list of risks • Probability assessment • Prevention roadmap • Determinate most probable and most easy to prevent risks • Education of “world saviors”: choose best students, provide them courses, money and tasks • Create x-risks wiki and x-risks internet forum which could be able to attract best minds, but also open to everyone and well moderated • Solve the problem that different scientists ignore each other (“world saviours arrogance” problem) • Integrate different lines of thinking about x-risks • Lower the barriers of entry into the • Unconstrained funding of x-risks research for many different approaches (Bostrom) to create high quality x-risk research • Study existing system of decision mak- ing in UN, hire a lawyer • Integration of existing plans to prevent concrete risks (e.g. “Climate plan” by Carana) • General theory of safety and risks prevention • War for world domination • One country uses bioweapons to kill all world’s population except its own which is immunized • Use of a super-technology (like nanotech) to quickly gain global military dominance • Blackmail by Doomsday Machine for world domination Global catastrophe Fatal mistakes in world control system • Wrong command makes shield system attack people • Geo-engineering goes awry • World totalitarianism leads to catastrophe Social support with shared knowledge and productive rivalry (CSER) • Popularization (articles, books, forums, media): show public that x-risks are real and diverse, but we could and should act. • Public support, street action • Political support (parties) peer-reviewed journal, conferences, intergovernment panel, international institute • Political parties for x-risks prevention • Productive cooperation between scientists and society based on trust Elimination of certain risks • Universal vaccines, UV cleaners • Asteroid detection (WISE) • Transition to renewable energy, cutting emissions, carbon capture • Stop LHC, SETI and METI until AI will be created • Rogue countries integrated, or crashed or prevented from having dangerous weapons programs and ad- vanced science International cooperation • All states in the world contribute to the UN to • States cooperate directly without UN • Group of supernations takes responsibility of x-risks prevention (US, EU, BRICS) and sign a treaty • A smaller catastrophe could help unite hu- manity (pandemic, small asteroid, local nuclear war) - some movement or event that will cause a paradigmatic change so that humanity becomes more existentially-risk aware • International law about x-risks which will pun- ish people for rising risk: underestimating it, plotting it, risk neglect, as well as reward people - forts in their prevention. • The ability to quickly adapt to new risks and envision them in advance. • International agencies dedicated to certain risks Values transformation • Rise public desire for life extension and global security • Reduction of radical religious (ISIS) or nationalistic values • Popularity of transhumanism • Change the model of the future • “A moral case can be made that existential risk reduction is strictly more im- portant than any other global public good” (Bostrom) • The value of the indestructibility of level and as a goal of every nation • “Sustainability should be reconceptualised in dynamic terms, as aiming for a sustainable trajectory rather than a sustainable state” (Bostrom) • Movies, novels and other works of art that honestly depict x-risks and moti- vate to their prevention • Translate best x-risks articles and books on main languages • Memorial and awareness days: Earth day, Petrov day, Asteroid day • Rationality and effective altruism • Education in schools on x-risks, safety and rationality topics Global catastrophe Manipulation of the extinction probability using Doomsday argument • Decision to create more observers in case of unfavourable event X starts to happen, so lowering its probability (method UN++ by Bostrom) • Lowering the birth density to get more time for the civilization Control of the simulation (if we are in it) • Live an interesting life so our simulation isn’t switched off • Don’t let them know that we know we live in simulation • Hack the simulation and control it • Negotiation with the simulators or pray for help Second half of the 21 century (2050-2100) AI practical studies • Narrow AI • Human emulations • Value loading • FAI theory promotion to most AI commands; they agree to implement it and adapt it to their systems • Tests of FAI on non self-improving models Readiness • Crew training • Crews in bunkers • Crew rotation • Different types of asylums • Frozen embryos Improving sustainability of civilization • Intrinsically safe critical systems • Growing diversity of human beings and habitats • Increasing diversity and increasing connectedness of our civilization • Universal methods of prevention (resistances structures, strong medicine) • Building reserves (food stocks, seeds, minerals, energy, machinery, knowledge) • Widely distributed civil defence, including air and water cleaning systems, radiation meters, gas masks, medical kits etc Practical steps to cope with certain risks • Instruments to capture radioactive dust • Small bio-hack groups around the world could im- prove the biotechnology understanding of the public to the point where no one accidentally creates a bio- technology hazard • Developing better guidance on safe biotechnology processes and exactly why its safe this way and not otherwise... effectively “raising the sanity waterline” • Dangerous forms of BioTech become centralised • DNA synthesizers are constantly connected to the Internet and all DNA is checked for dangerous frag- ments • Funding things like clean-rooms with negative pres- sure • Methane and CO2 capture, may be by bacteria • Invest in bio-divercity of food supply chain, prevent pest spread: 1) better carantine law, 2) port- - sions in medium bulks of foodstuffs, sterilization. • “Develop and stockpile new drugs and vaccines, monitor biological agents and emerging diseases, and strengthen the capacities of local health systems to respond to pandemics” (Matheny) • Better quarantine laws • Mild birth control (female education) prevention international court or secret institution • Large project which could unite humanity, like pandemic prevention • Rogue countries integrated, based on dialogue and appreciating their values • Peaceful integration of national states Dramatic social changes It could include many interesting but different topics: demise of capi- talism, hipster revolution, internet connectivity, global village, dissolv- ing of national states. Changing the way that politics works so that the policies implemented actually have empirical backing based on what we know about sys- tems. Steps and timeline Exact dates depend on the pace of technological progress and of our activity to prevent risks Step 1 Planning Step 3 First level of defence on low-tech level Step 4 Second level of defence on high-tech level Step 5 Reaching indestructibility of the civilization with near zero x-risks Step 2 Preparation Second quarter of 21 century (2025-2050) High-tech bunkers • Nano-tech based adaptive structures • Small AI with human simulation inside space rock PlanA Preventthecatastrophe Space colonies on large planets • Creation of space colonies on the Moon and Mars (Elon Musk) Ideological payload of new technologies Space tech - Mars as backup Electric car - sustainability Self-driving cars - risks of AI and value of human life Facebook - empathy and mutual control Open source - transparency Psychedelic drugs - empathy Computer games and brain stimulation - virtual world Design new monopoly tech with special ideological payload Reactive and Proactive approach Reactive: React on most urgent and most visible risks. Pros: Good timing, visible re- sults, right resource allocation, invest only in real risks Good for slow risks, like pandemic. Cons: can’t react on fast emergencies (AI, asteroid, collider failure). Risk are ranged by urgency. Proactive: Envision future risks and build multilevel defence. Pros: Good for coping this principally new risks, enough time to build defence. Cons imaginable risks, no clear reward, problem with identifying new risks and dis- counting mad ideas. Risks are ranged by probability. Decentralized monitoring of risks Decentralized risks monitoring • Transparent society: everybody could monitor everybody • Decentralized control (local police, net-solutions,) local police could handle local crime and x-risks peers, they could control their neighbourhood in their professional space; Anonymus hacker groups; google search control • “Anonymous” style hacker groups: large group of “world saviours” • Net based safety solutions • Laws and economic stimulus (Richard Posner, carbon emissions trade): prizes for any risk found and prevented • World democracy based on internet voting • Mild monitoring of potential signs of dangerous activity (internet), using deep learning • High level of horizontal connectivity between people Useful ideas to limit catastrophe scale Limit the impact of catastrophe by implementing measures to slow the growth and areas impacted by a catastrophe. Carnitine, improve the capacity for rapid production of vaccines in response to emerging threats or create or grow stockpiles of important medical countermeas- ure. Increase time available for preparation by improving monitor- ing and early detection technologies. For example, with pandemics you could: supporting general research on the magnitude of biosecurity risks and opportunities to reduce them and improving and connect disease surveillance systems so that novel threats can be detected and respond- ed to more quickly Worldwide x-risk prevention exercises
  6. 6. Plan  A  is  complex: We  should  do  all  it  simultaneously:   international  control,  AI,  robustness,  and  space International Control System Friendly AI Rising Resilience Space Colonization Decentralized monitoring of risks
  7. 7. Plans  B,  C  and  D  have  smaller   chances  on  success Survive the catastrophe Leave backups Plan D Deus ex machina Bad plans
  8. 8. Plan A1.1 International Control System Risk controlTechnology bans • International ban on dangerous technologies or voluntary relinquishment (such as not creating new • Freezing potentially dangerous projects for 30 years • Lowering international confrontation • Lock down all risk areas beneath piles of bureaucracy, paperwork, safety requirements • Concentrate all bio, nano and AI research in several controlled centers • Control over dissemination of knowledge of mass destruction • Control over suicidal or terrorist ideation in bioscientists • Investments in general safety: education, facilities, control, checks, exams • Limiting and concentrating in one place an important resource: dangerous nuclear materials, high level scientists Technology speedup • Differential technological development: develop safety and con- • Laws and economic stimulus (Richard Posner, Surveillance • Internet control Worldwide risk prevention authority • Worldwide video-surveillance and control • “The ability when necessary to mobilise a strong global coordinated response to • Center for quick response to any x-risks police a system of international treaties • Robots for emergency liquidation of bio-and nuclear hazards Active shields • Geoengineering against global warming • Worldwide missile defence and anti-asteroid shield • Nano-shield – distributed system of control of hazardous replicators • Mind-shield - control of dangerous ideation by the means of brain implants • Merger of the state, Internet and worldwide AI in uniform monitoring, security and control system • Isolation of risk sources at great distance from Earth Research • Create, prove and widely promote long term future model (this map is based on exponential tech development • Invest in long term prediction studies • Comprehensive list of risks • Probability assessment • Prevention roadmap • Determinate most probable and most easy to prevent risks • Education of “world saviors”: choose best students, provide them courses, money and tasks • Create x-risks wiki and x-risks internet forum which could be able to attract best minds, but also open to everyone and well moderated • Solve the problem that different scientists ignore each other • Integrate different lines of thinking about x-risks • Lower the barriers of entry into the • Unconstrained funding of x-risks research for many different approaches research • Study existing system of decision mak- ing in UN, hire a lawyer • Integration of existing plans to prevent concrete risks (e.g. “Climate plan” by • General theory of safety and risks prevention Social support with shared knowledge • Popularization (articles, books, x-risks are real and diverse, but we could and should act. • Public support, street action peer-reviewed journal, conferences, intergovernment panel, international institute • Political parties for x-risks prevention • Productive cooperation between scientists and society based on trust International cooperation • All states in the world contribute to the UN to • States cooperate directly without UN • Group of supernations takes responsibility of treaty • A smaller catastrophe could help unite hu- manity (pandemic, small asteroid, local nuclear paradigmatic change so that humanity becomes more existentially-risk aware • International law about x-risks which will pun- ish people for rising risk: underestimating it, plotting it, risk neglect, as well as reward people efforts in their prevention. • The ability to quickly adapt to new risks and envision them in advance. • International agencies dedicated to certain risks
  9. 9. Research • Create, prove and widely promote long term future model (this map is based on exponential tech development future model) • Invest in long term prediction studies • Comprehensive list of risks • Probability assessment • Prevention roadmap • Determinate most probable and most easy to prevent risks • Education of “world saviors”: choose best students, provide them courses, money and tasks • Create x-risks wiki and x-risks internet forum which could be able to attract best minds, but also open to everyone and well moderated • Solve the problem that different scientists ignore each other (“world saviours arrogance” problem) • Integrate different lines of thinking about x-risks • Lower the barriers of entry into the • Unconstrained funding of x-risks research for many different approaches (Bostrom) to create high quality x-risk research • Study existing system of decision mak- ing in UN, hire a lawyer • Integration of existing plans to prevent concrete risks (e.g. “Climate plan” by Carana) • General theory of safety and risks prevention Step 1 Planning Plan A1.1 International Control System
  10. 10. Social support with shared knowledge institute • Political parties for x-risks prevention Step 2 Preparation Plan A1.1 International Control System
  11. 11. International cooperation • All states in the world contribute to the UN to • States cooperate directly without UN threaty - - Step 3 First level of defence on low-tech level Plan A1.1 International Control System
  12. 12. Risk controlTechnology bans • International ban on dangerous technologies or voluntary relinquishment (such as not creating new • Freezing potentially dangerous projects for 30 years • Lowering international confrontation • Lock down all risk areas beneath piles of bureaucracy, paperwork, safety requirements • Concentrate all bio, nano and AI research in several controlled centers • Control over dissemination of knowledge of mass destruction • Control over suicidal or terrorist ideation in bioscientists • Investments in general safety: education, facilities, control, checks, exams • Limiting and concentrating in one place an important resource: dangerous nuclear materials, high level scientists Technology speedup • Differential technological development: develop safety and con- • Laws and economic stimulus (Richard Posner, Surveillance Step 3 First level of defence on low-tech level Plan A1.1 International Control System
  13. 13. Worldwide risk prevention authority • Worldwide video-surveillance and control • “The ability when necessary to mobilise a strong global coordinated response to anticipated existential risks” (Bostrom) • Center for quick response to any emerging risk; x-risks police a system of international treaties • Robots for emergency liquidation of bio-and nuclear hazards Step 4 Second level of defence on high-tech level Plan A1.1 International Control System
  14. 14. Active shields • Geoengineering against global warming • Worldwide missile defence and anti-asteroid shield • Nano-shield – distributed system of control of hazardous replicators • Bio-shield – worldwide immune system • Mind-shield - control of dangerous ideation by the means of brain implants • Merger of the state, Internet and worldwide AI in uniform monitoring, security and control system • Isolation of risk sources at great distance from Earth Step 4 Second level of defence on high-tech level Plan A1.1 International Control System
  15. 15. Risks of plan A1.1
  16. 16. Singleton • “A world order in which there is a single decision-making agency at the highest level” (Bostrom) • Worldwide government system based on AI • Super AI which prevents all possible risks and provides immortality and happiness to humanity • Colonization of the solar system, interstellar travel and Dyson spheres • Colonization of the Galaxy • Exploring the Universe Result:
  17. 17. Plan A1.2 Decentralised risk monitoring Improving human intelligence and morality • Nootropics, brain stimulation, and gene therapy for higher IQ • New rationality: Bayes probabilities, interest in long term future, LessWrong • High empathy for new geniuses is needed to prevent them from becoming superterrorists • Many rational, positive, and cooperative people are needed to reduce x-risks • Lower proportion of destructive beliefs, risky behaviour, • Engineered enlightenment: use brain science to make people more unite, less aggressive; open realm of spiritual world to everybody • Prevent worst forms of capitalism: desire to short term money reward, and to change rules for getting it. Stop greedy monopolies Values transformation • Rise public desire for life extension and global security • Reduction of radical religious (ISIS) or nationalistic values • Popularity of transhumanism • Change the model of the future • “A moral case can be made that existential risk reduction is strictly more im- portant than any other global public good” (Bostrom) • The value of the indestructibility of - el and as a goal of every nation • “Sustainability should be reconceptualised in dynamic terms, as aiming for a sustainable trajectory rather than a sustainable state” (Bostrom) • Movies, novels and other works of art that honestly depict x-risks and moti- vate to their prevention • Translate best x-risks articles and books on main languages • Memorial and awareness days: Earth day, Petrov day, Asteroid day • Rationality and effective altruism • Education in schools on x-risks, safety and rationality topics Cold war and WW3 prevention international court or secret institution • Large project which could unite humanity, like pandemic prevention • Rogue countries integrated, based on dialogue and appreciating their values • Peaceful integration of national states Dramatic social changes It could include many interesting but different topics: demise of capi- talism, hipster revolution, internet connectivity, global village, dissolv- ing of national states. Changing the way that politics works so that the policies implemented actually have empirical backing based on what we know about sys- tems. Decentralized risks monitoring • Transparent society: everybody could monitor everybody • Decentralized control (local police, net-solutions,) local police could handle local crime and x-risks peers, they could control their neighbourhood in their professional space; Anonymus hacker groups; google search control • “Anonymous” style hacker groups: large group of “world saviours” • Net based safety solutions • Laws and economic stimulus (Richard Posner, carbon emissions trade): prizes for any risk found and prevented • World democracy based on internet voting • Mild monitoring of potential signs of dangerous activity (internet), using deep learning • High level of horizontal connectivity between people
  18. 18. Values transformation • Rise public desire for life extension and global security • Reduction of radical religious (ISIS) or nationalistic values • Popularity of transhumanism • Change the model of the future • “A moral case can be made that existential risk reduction is strictly more im- portant than any other global public good” (Bostrom) • The value of the indestructibility of - el and as a goal of every nation sustainable trajectory rather than a sustainable state” (Bostrom) - vate to their prevention • Translate best x-risks articles and books on main languages • Rationality and effective altruism Plan A1.2 Decentralised risk monitoring Step 1
  19. 19. Improving human intelligence and morality • Nootropics, brain stimulation, and gene therapy for higher IQ • New rationality: Bayes probabilities, interest in long term future, LessWrong • High empathy for new geniuses is needed to prevent them from becoming superterrorists • Many rational, positive, and cooperative people are needed to reduce x-risks • Lower proportion of destructive beliefs, risky behaviour, • Engineered enlightenment: use brain science to make people more unite, less aggressive; open realm of spiritual world to everybody Plan A1.2 Decentralised risk monitoring. Step 2
  20. 20. Cold war and WW3 prevention - - - Plan A1.2 Decentralised risk monitoring. Step 3
  21. 21. Decentralized risks monitoring • Transparent society: everybody could monitor everybody • Decentralized control (local police, net-solutions,) local police could handle local crime and hacker groups; google search control • World democracy based on internet voting Plan A1.2 Decentralised risk monitoring. Step 4
  22. 22. Plan A2. Friendly AI Study and Promotion • Study of Friendly AI theory • Promotion of Friendly AI (Bostrom and Yudkowsky) • Fundraising (MIRI) • Teaching rationality (LessWrong) • Slowing other AI projects (recruiting scientists) • FAI free education, starter packages in programming Solid Friendly AI theory • Human values theory and decision theory • Proven safe, fail-safe, intrinsically safe AI • Preservation of the value system during AI self-improvement • A clear theory that is practical to implement Seed AI Creation of a small AI capable of recursive self-improvement and based on Friendly AI theory Superintelligent AI • Seed AI quickly improves itself and undergoes “hard takeoff” • It becomes dominant force on Earth • AI eliminates suffering, involuntary death, and existential risks • AI Nanny – one hypothetical variant of super AI that only acts to prevent existential risks (Ben Goertzel) AI practical studies • Narrow AI • Human emulations • Value loading • FAI theory promotion to most AI commands; they agree to implement it and adapt it to their systems • Tests of FAI on non self-improving models
  23. 23. Study and Promotion • Study of Friendly AI theory • Promotion of Friendly AI (Bostrom and Yudkowsky) • Fundraising (MIRI) • Teaching rationality (LessWrong) • Slowing other AI projects (recruiting scientists) • FAI free education, starter packages in programming Plan A2. Friendly AI. Step 1
  24. 24. Solid Friendly AI theory • Human values theory and decision theory • Proven safe, fail-safe, intrinsically safe AI • Preservation of the value system during AI self-improvement • A clear theory that is practical to implement Plan A2. Friendly AI. Step 2
  25. 25. AI practical studies • Narrow AI • Human emulations • Value loading • FAI theory promotion to most AI commands; they agree to implement it and adapt it to their systems • Tests of FAI on non self-improving models Plan A2. Friendly AI. Step 3
  26. 26. Seed AI Creation of a small AI capable of recursive self-improvement and based on Friendly AI theory Plan A2. Friendly AI. Step 4
  27. 27. Superintelligent AI • Seed AI quickly improves itself and undergoes “hard takeoff” • It becomes dominant force on Earth • AI eliminates suffering, involuntary death, and existential risks • AI Nanny – one hypothetical variant of super AI that only acts to prevent existential risks (Ben Goertzel) Plan A2. Friendly AI. Step 5
  28. 28. High-speed tech development needed to quickly pass risk window • Investment in super-technologies (nanotech, biotech) • High speed technical progress helps to overcome slow process of resource depletion Dramatic social changes It could include many interesting but different topics: demise of capitalism, hipster revolution, internet connectivity, global village, dissolving of national states. Changing the way that politics works so that the policies implemented actually have empirical backing based on what we know about systems. Improving human intelligence and morality • Nootropics, brain stimulation, and gene therapy for higher IQ • New rationality: Bayes probabilities, interest in long term future, LessWrong • High empathy for new geniuses is needed to prevent them from becoming superterrorists • Many rational, positive, and cooperative people are needed to reduce x-risks • Engineered enlightenment: use brain science to make people more unite, less aggressive; open realm of spiritual world to everybody • Prevent worst forms of capitalism: desire to short term money reward, and to change rules for getting it. Stop greedy monopolies Timely achievement of immortality on highest possible level • Nanotech-based immortal body • Mind uploading • Integration with AI Miniaturization for survival and invincibility • Earth crust colonization by miniaturized nano tech bodies • Moving into simulated world inside small self sustained computer AI based on uploading of its creator • Friendly to the value system of its creator • Its values consistently evolve during its self-improvement • Limited self-improvement may solve friendliness problem Improving sustainability of civilization • Intrinsically safe critical systems • Growing diversity of human beings and habitats • Increasing diversity and increasing connectedness of our civilization • Universal methods of prevention (resistances structures, strong medicine) • Building reserves (food stocks, seeds, minerals, energy, machinery, knowledge) • Widely distributed civil defence, including air and water cleaning systems, radiation meters, gas masks, medical kits etc Plan A3. Rising Resilience
  29. 29. Improving sustainability of civilization • Intrinsically safe critical systems • Growing diversity of human beings and habitats • Increasing diversity and increasing connectedness of our civilization • Universal methods of prevention (resistances structures, strong medicine) • Building reserves (food stocks, seeds, minerals, energy, machinery, knowledge) • Widely distributed civil defence, including air and water cleaning systems, radiation meters, gas masks, medical kits etc Plan A3. Rising Resilience Step 1
  30. 30. Plan A3. Rising Resilience Step 2 Useful ideas to limit catastrophe scale Limit the impact of catastrophe by implementing measures to slow the growth and areas impacted by a catastrophe. Carnitine, improve the capacity for rapid production of vaccines in response to emerging threats or create or grow stockpiles of important medical countermeas- ure. Increase time available for preparation by improving monitoring and early detection technologies. For example, with pandemics you could: supporting general research on the magnitude of biosecurity risks and opportunities to reduce them and improving and connect disease surveillance systems so that novel threats can be detected and respond- ed to more quickly Worldwide x-risk prevention exercises
  31. 31. High-speed tech development needed to quickly pass risk window • Investment in super-technologies (nanotech, biotech) • High speed technical progress helps to overcome slow process of resource depletion Dramatic social changes It could include many interesting but different topics: demise of capitalism, hipster revolution, internet connectivity, global village, dissolving of national states. Changing the way that politics works so that the policies implemented actually have empirical backing based on what we know about systems. Plan A3. Rising Resilience. Step 3
  32. 32. Timely achievement of immortality on highest possible level • Nanotech-based immortal body • Integration with AI Plan A3. Rising Resilience. Step 4
  33. 33. Interstellar travel • “Orion” style, nuclear powered “generation ships” with colonists • Starships which operate on new physical principles with immortal people on board • Von Neumann self-replicating probes with human embryos Temporary asylums in space • Space stations as temporary asylums (ISS) • Cheap and safe launch systems Colonisation of the Solar system • Self-sustaining colonies on Mars and large asteroids • Terraforming of planets and asteroids using self-replicating robots and building space colonies there • Millions of independent colonies inside asteroids and comet bodies in the Oort cloud Space colonies on large planets • Creation of space colonies on the Moon and Mars (Elon Musk) with 100-1000 people Plan A4. Space colonisation
  34. 34. Temporary asylums in space • Space stations as temporary asylums (ISS) • Cheap and safe launch systems Plan A4. Space colonisation Step 1
  35. 35. Space colonies on large planets • Creation of space colonies on the Moon and Mars (Elon Musk) with 100-1000 people Plan A4. Space colonisation Step 2
  36. 36. Colonisation of the Solar system • Self-sustaining colonies on Mars and large asteroids • Terraforming of planets and asteroids using self-replicating robots and building space colonies there • Millions of independent colonies inside asteroids and comet bodies in the Oort cloud Plan A4. Space colonisation Step 3
  37. 37. Interstellar travel • “Orion” style, nuclear powered “generation ships” with colonists • Starships which operate on new physical principles with immortal people on board • Von Neumann self-replicating probes with human embryos Plan A4. Space colonisation Step 4
  38. 38. Interstellar distributed humanity • Many unconnected human civilizations • New types of space risks (space wars, planets and stellar explosions, AI and nanoreplicators, ET civilizations) Result:
  39. 39. Plan B. Survive the catastrophe Preparation • Fundraising and promotion • Textbook to rebuild civilization (Dartnell’s book “Knowledge”) • Hoards with knowledge, seeds and raw materials (Doomsday vault in Norway) • Survivalist communities Building • Underground bunkers, space colonies • Nuclear submarines • Seasteading Natural refuges • Uncontacted tribes • Remote villages • Remote islands • Oceanic ships • Research stations in Antarctica Rebuilding civilisation after catastrophe • Rebuilding population • Rebuilding science and technology • Prevention of future catastrophes Readiness • Crew training • Crews in bunkers • Crew rotation • Different types of asylums • Frozen embryos High-tech bunkers • Nano-tech based adaptive structures • Small AI with human simulation inside space rock
  40. 40. Preparation • Fundraising and promotion • Textbook to rebuild civilization (Dartnell’s book “Knowledge”) • Hoards with knowledge, seeds and raw materials (Doomsday vault in Norway) • Survivalist communities Plan B. Survive the catastrophe Step 1
  41. 41. Building • Underground bunkers, space colonies • Nuclear submarines • Seasteading Natural refuges • Uncontacted tribes • Remote villages • Remote islands • Oceanic ships • Research stations in Antarctica Plan B. Survive the catastrophe Step 2
  42. 42. Readiness • Crew training • Crews in bunkers • Crew rotation • Different types of asylums • Frozen embryos Plan B. Survive the catastrophe Step 3
  43. 43. High-tech bunkers • Nano-tech based adaptive structures • Small AI with human simulation inside space rock Plan B. Survive the catastrophe Step 4
  44. 44. Rebuilding civilisation after catastrophe • Rebuilding population • Rebuilding science and technology • Prevention of future catastrophes Plan B. Survive the catastrophe Step 5
  45. 45. Reboot of the civilization • Several reboots may happen • Finally there will be total collapse or a new supercivilization level Result:
  46. 46. Time capsules with information • Underground storage with information and DNA for future non-human civilizations • Eternal disks from Long Now Foundation (or M-disks) Preservation of earthly life • Create conditions for the re-emergence of new intelligent life on Earth • Directed panspermia (Mars, Europe, space dust) • Preservation of biodiversity and highly developed animals (apes, habitats) Messages to ET civilizations • Interstellar radio messages with encoded human DNA • Hoards on the Moon, frozen brains about humanity Robot-replicators in space • Mechanical life • Preservation of information about humanity for billions of years • Safe narrow AI Plan C. Leave backups
  47. 47. Time capsules with information • Underground storage with information and DNA for future non-human civilizations • Eternal disks from Long Now Foundation (or M-disks) Plan C. Leave backups Step 1
  48. 48. Messages to ET civilizations • Interstellar radio messages with encoded human DNA • Hoards on the Moon, frozen brains about humanity Plan C. Leave backups. Step 2
  49. 49. Preservation of earthly life • Create conditions for the re-emergence of new intelligent life on Earth • Directed panspermia (Mars, Europe, space dust) • Preservation of biodiversity and highly developed animals (apes, habitats) Plan C. Leave backups. Step 3
  50. 50. Robot-replicators in space • Mechanical life • Preservation of information about humanity for billions of years • Safe narrow AI Plan C. Leave backups. Step 4
  51. 51. Resurrection by another civilization • Creation of a civilization which has a lot of common values and traits with humans • Resurrection of concrete people Result:
  52. 52. Quantum immortality • If the many-worlds interpretation of QM is true, an observer will survive any sort of death including any global catastrophe (Moravec, Tegmark) • It may be possible to make almost univocal correspondence between observer survival and survival of a group of people (e.g. if all are in submarine) Saved by non-human intelligence • Maybe extraterrestrials are looking out for us and will save us • Send radio messages into space asking for help if a catastrophe is inevitable • Maybe we live in a simulation and simulators will save us • The Second Coming, a miracle, or life after death Strange strategy to escape Fermi paradox Random strategy may help us to escape some dangers that killed all previous civilizations in space Technological precognition • Prediction of the future based on advanced quantum technology and avoiding dangerous world-lines • Search for potential terrorists using new scanning technologies • Special AI to predict and prevent new x-risks Manipulation of the extinction probability using Doomsday argument • Decision to create more observers in case of unfavourable event X starts to happen, so lowering its • Lowering the birth density to get more time for the civilization Control of the simulation (if we are in it) • Live an interesting life so our sim- ulation isn’t switched off • Don’t let them know that we know we live in simulation • Hack the simulation and control it or pray for help Plan D. Improbable ideas
  53. 53. Saved by non-human intelligence • Maybe extraterrestrials are looking out for us and will save us • Send radio messages into space asking for help if a catastrophe is inevitable • Maybe we live in a simulation and simulators will save us • The Second Coming, a miracle, or life after death Plan D. Improbable ideas Idea 1
  54. 54. Quantum immortality • If the many-worlds interpretation of QM is true, an observer will survive any sort of death including any global catastrophe (Moravec, Tegmark) • It may be possible to make almost univocal correspondence between observer survival and survival of a group of people (e.g. if all are in submarine) Plan D. Improbable ideas. Idea 2
  55. 55. Strange strategy to escape Fermi paradox Random strategy may help us to escape some dangers that killed all previous civilizations in space Plan D. Improbable ideas Idea 3
  56. 56. Technological precognition • Prediction of the future based on advanced quantum technology and avoiding dangerous world-lines • Search for potential terrorists using new scanning technologies • Special AI to predict and prevent new x-risks Plan D. Improbable ideas Idea 4
  57. 57. Manipulation of the extinction probability using Doomsday argument • Decision to create more observers in case of unfavourable event X starts to happen, so lowering its probability (method UN++ by Bostrom) • Lowering the birth density to get more time for the civilization Plan D. Improbable ideas Idea 5
  58. 58. Control of the simulation (if we are in it) • Live an interesting life so our sim- ulation isn’t switched off • Don’t let them know that we know we live in simulation • Hack the simulation and control it • Negotiation with the simulators or pray for help Plan D. Improbable ideas Idea 6
  59. 59. Prevent x-risk research because it only increases risk • Do not advertise the idea of man-made global catastrophe • Don’t try to control risks as it would only give rise to them • As we can’t measure the probability of glob- al catastrophe it maybe unreasonable to try to change the probability • Do nothing Controlled regression • Use small catastrophe to prevent large one (Willard Wells) • Luddism (Kaczynski): relinquishment of dangerous science • Creation of ecological civilization without technology (“World made by hand”, anarcho-primitivism) • Limitation of personal and collective intelligence to prevent dangerous science Attracting good outcome by positive thinking • Preventing negative thoughts about the end of the world and about violence • Maximum positive attitude “to attract” positive outcome • Secret police which use mind superpowers to stop them • Start partying now Depopulation • Could provide resource preservation and make control simpler • Natural causes: pandemics, war, hunger (Malthus) • Birth control (Bill Gates) • Deliberate small catastrophe (bio-weapons) Unfriendly AI may be better than nothing • Any super AI will have some memory about humanity • It will use simulations of human civilization to study the probability of its own existence • It may share some human values and distribute them through the Universe Bad plans
  60. 60. Prevent x-risk research because it only increases risk • Do not advertise the idea of man-made global catastrophe • Don’t try to control risks as it would only give rise to them • As we can’t measure the probability of glob- al catastrophe it maybe unreasonable to try to change the probability • Do nothing Bad plans Idea 1
  61. 61. Controlled regression • Use small catastrophe to prevent large one (Willard Wells) • Luddism (Kaczynski): relinquishment of dangerous science • Creation of ecological civilization without technology (“World made by hand”, anarcho-primitivism) • Limitation of personal and collective intelligence to prevent dangerous science Bad plans Idea 2
  62. 62. Bad plans. Idea 3 Depopulation • Could provide resource preservation and make control simpler • Natural causes: pandemics, war, hunger (Malthus) • Extreme birth control • Deliberate small catastrophe (bio-weapons)
  63. 63. Unfriendly AI may be better than nothing • Any super AI will have some memory about humanity • It will use simulations of human civilization to study the probability of its own existence • It may share some human values and distribute them through the Universe Bad plans. Idea 4
  64. 64. Attracting good outcome by positive thinking • Preventing negative thoughts about the end of the world and about violence • Maximum positive attitude “to attract” positive outcome • Secret police which use mind superpowers to stop them • Start partying now Bad plans. Idea 5
  65. 65. Dynamic  roadmaps Next  stage  of  the  research  will  be  creation  of   collectively  editable  wiki-­‐style  roadmaps   They  will  cover  all  existing  topics  of   transhumanism  and  future  studies   Create  AI  system  based  on  the  roadmaps  or   working  on  their  improvement
  66. 66. You  could  read  all   roadmaps  on http://immortality-­‐roadmap.com   ! http://existrisks.org/

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