3.  Who votes –and who doesn’t?
 What makes people vote the way they do?
 Why don’t people vote?
4.
5.  Age Older >Younger
 Gender Women > Men
 Income Richer > Poorer
 Education College Degree > HS Graduate
 Race and Ethnicity Mixed Evidence
6.
7.
8.
9.
10. Truman Dewey
Panel Study: Use a sample of the population and ask them
throughout campaign if their views have changed over time.
11. • Our voting decision takes places in a social context.
• Inherit partisanship from family and peers
• Strong pull when similar socio-economic status (SES) and religion
• Impact of political homogeneity
• What about “Cross-Pressured” voters?
12.
13.
14.
15.  Political Socialization
 Party ID
 Political Attitudes
 Voting Decision
 How are attitudes formed?
 Feelings toward the
Democratic and
Republican candidates
 How well each party
manages government
 Group interests (“knows
people like me”)
 Domestic policy issues
 Foreign policy issues
16.  Voting based on past performance
 If you are the incumbent:
 Remember great things?
 “Are you better off than you were four years ago?”
 If you are the challenger:
 Remember problems?
 “Are you better off than you were four years ago?”
17.  Voting based off of future considerations
 If you are the incumbent:
 Plans for a new term if re-elected
 What will future look like with challenger?
 If you are the challenger:
 Reject incumbent’s policies
 Vote for change in years ahead
18.
19.  Based on costs and benefits
 Voting Components:
 Probability ofVote Mattering (“P)
 Benefits ofVoting (“B”)
 Costs ofVoting (“C”)
 “Civic Duty” (“D”)
 Individuals weigh these items
and make their voting decision
23.  Party ID (#1)
 Is candidate a Republican or a Democrat?
 Interpersonal Communications
 Friends and Family; “Opinion Leaders”
 The Media
 Agenda-Setting, Priming, and Framing
 Idea of “Representativeness”
 People compare actual candidate to “ideal” version
24.
25.  Legal Obstacles
 Attitude Changes
 Voter Mobilization
 Decrease in Social Connectedness
 Generational Changes
 The “Rational Nonvoter”
