Slides

1. PO 375
Fall 2016

6. Truman Dewey
Panel Study: Use a sample of the population and ask them
throughout campaign if their views have changed over time.

7. • Our voting decision takes places in a social context.
• Inherit partisanship from family and peers
• Strong pull when similar socio-economic status (SES) and religion
• Impact of political homogeneity
• What about “Cross-Pressured” voters?

11.  Political Socialization
 Party ID
 Political Attitudes
 Voting Decision
 How are attitudes formed?
 Feelings toward the
Democratic and
Republican candidates
 How well each party
manages government
 Group interests (“knows
people like me”)
 Domestic policy issues
 Foreign policy issues

12.  Voting based on past performance
 If you are the incumbent:
 Remember great things?
 “Are you better off than you were four years ago?”
 If you are the challenger:
 Remember problems?
 “Are you better off than you were four years ago?”

13.  Voting based off of future considerations
 If you are the incumbent:
 Plans for a new term if re-elected
 What will future look like with challenger?
 If you are the challenger:
 Reject incumbent’s policies
 Vote for change in years ahead

15.  Based on costs and benefits
 Voting Components:
 Reward fromVoting (“R”)
 Probability ofVote Mattering (“P”)
 Benefits ofVoting (“B”)
 Costs ofVoting (“C”)
 Civic Duty (“D”)
 Individuals weigh these items
and make their voting decision

16. POCKETBOOKVOTING SOCIOTROPICVOTING
Deals with your
personal finances
Deals with national
indicators of financial
health (e.g. deficit)

18. Citizens’ political
knowledge hasn’t increased
in the last few decades.

19.  Party ID (#1)
 Is candidate a Republican or a Democrat?
 Interpersonal Communications
 Friends and Family; “Opinion Leaders”
 The Media
 Agenda-Setting, Priming, and Framing
 Idea of “Representativeness”
 People compare actual candidate to “ideal” version