Story Sizing

using

Agile Relative Estimation
Alex Kanaan
About Me
Connect with Me!
Click Button For Direct Access
More about Me http://www.alexkanaan.com
Read My Blog http://www.alexkanaan.com/#latestnews
Contact Me http://www.alexkanaan.com/#contact
Follow my Tweets @AlexKanDu
Connect on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/arkanaan
Let’s Get to Know You!
• Waterfall Experience
• Agile Experience
• Beginners
• Intermediate
• Advanced
• Scrum
• Kanban
• SAFe
Question
How long does it take 2
PM’s to change a
lightbulb?
Question
How long does it take 2
PM’s to change a
lightbulb?
HINT: THINK!!!
Question
How long does it take 2
PM’s to change a
lightbulb?
Answer: Do you have a
plan?
Traditional Project Planning
Creating a project plan is simple?
Identify tasks, durations & dependencies
Find out who will do the work & estimate how long it
will take them to do it
Plug all into MS Project and voila!
So one person assigned to a task that takes
48 hours, will finish it in 6 days, right?
Whoa...Whose Days Look like this?*
Out-of-Time?
So how many hours do
you really have left to
actually do the work in
the plan?
Planning for an 8 hour day?
Assuming 8 hrs a day
to allocate to tasks is
not realistic!!
What should we do?
Problems with Traditional Estimates
We spend too much time doing/redoing it
But we rarely get it right -
Fear of failure
Lack of confidence/experience
People are either pessimistic or optimistic
Timeline may be too far into future
Many unknowns, changes, dependencies
Traditional Planning
So how do we estimate accurately how long
it will take to get things done?
Traditional Planning
So how do we estimate accurately how long
it will take to get things done?
Answer: You cannot!
Self-Organize & Prove the Following!
Fact: Humans stink at Estimating!
So, Do Estimates Work?
Traditional Planning
“It is better to be roughly right...
than precisely wrong”
John Maynard Keynes
Solution? Use Relative Estimation
Relative Estimation
Educated “finger-in-the-air” guess-timate that
works!!
Used in Product Backlog
Uses comparing vs deconstructing
Allows you to select a predictable volume of
work to be done in a sprint
Basis to do capacity based planning
Sizing - Why Relative Estimation
Uses a Simple Scale
Normalized Story Points
Quick Estimates - Sizing a story
K.I.S.S. - Keeps it Simple
It’s all relative - comparing & evaluating one
story to another
Sizing - Why Relative Estimation
Allows PO to make
tradeoffs
Allows you to take on
low hanging fruit first
(more valuable stories)
Let’s Get Started!
Let’s learn how to use
relative sizes for
comparison
How Much does a Terrier Weigh? (estimate)
No Idea?
Because we aren’t comparing it to
anything...yet!
So...Which Dog is Heavier?
Where do we fit a Golden Retriever?
Between Chihuahua & German Shepherd
Let’s Up the Challenge!
Lets use relative sizes to help us “fit” something
new to our scale below
Where do you fit a Terrier on the scale?
More or Less than a German Shephard?
Where on Scale?
More or less than a Retriever?
Where on Scale?
More or less than a Chihuahua?
Where on Scale?+
About the same as a Chihuahua
How Much Does a Terrier Weigh?
HINT: This is what we know
• Less than a German Shephard
• Less than a retriever
• About the same as a Chihuahua
• But...we don’t know what a Chihuahua
weighs
Can You Answer NOW?
What If You Had this Table?
Can You Answer NOW?? (estimate)
How much
does a Terrier
weigh?
Yes…The Terrier Weighs...
Roughly about the same as a Chihuahua, or 4-6 Ibs
So how does this work in Agile?
We create buckets of standard story sizes and
‘fit’ new stories in these buckets
Do We Include Testing in Estimates?
What About Deployment?
YES: Include it ALL!
ALL efforts in the
process are included in
the size estimate -
including any spikes
What is this?
1, 2, 3, 5, 8,13
What is this?
Modified Fibonacci Sequence
1, 2, 3, 5, 8,13
20, 40, 100, 200
Size is not based on effort alone
Unlike Waterfall,
when we size
stories, we do NOT
base it on effort
alone!
More to Size than Effort alone!
Story Point Size is based on at least
Effort Complexity Doubt
Effort
Doubt
Complexity
Same Effort - Different Size
5PT
Effor
t
D
C
1PT
Both stories have the same
effort, why is the estimate so
different?
Effor
t
Doubt
Complexit
y
Effor
t
Compl
exity
Doubt
z
Co
mpl
ex
Dou
bt
Effort
Different Efforts - Same Size
5PT 5PT5PT
Using T-Shirt Sizing for your buckets
Small
1pt
Medium
2-3pt
Large
5pt
Extra Large
8 Points
TOO BIG -
Break into
Smaller
Stories
Normalized Story Points
• Pick a 1 pointer roughly equal 1 day
• Agree with Team this is your one pointer in
terms of effort, complexity and doubt
• Compare new stories to it
• Remember to use same scale within team
Planning Poker
Consent based estimation technique
I don’t use it with my teams because I find
developers are much more comfortable with
giving a relative number rather than an exact
number
Mike Cohn’s Website for a good explanation
Do we use hours in planning?
Yes: In sprint planning where your planning
horizon is only your 2-3 weeks - sprint length
Remember the Mantra!
Points for Stories, Hours for Tasks!
Points for Stories, Hours for Tasks!
Estimate
Using
When? For What?
Stories Points Refinement Velocity
Tasks Hours Sprint
Planning
Burndown
Chart
Tips on Sizing
• Avoid confusion: Sizing vs Estimates
• Use Story Points - choose & stick to scale
• Break large stories to multiple small stories
• Smaller stories have less uncertainty &
easier to estimate more accurately
• Only an estimate, don’t spend too much
time
• Team sizing efforts get better with time
Relative Sizing Advantages
• Sprint planning in minutes not hours!
• Less Stress: Team doesn’t worry if
estimates are not spot-on
• Meeting sprint commitments starts to
improve each sprint
• We now have historical velocity that can be
used towards future planning and
accepting new projects
Next Steps…
If you liked my presentation, connect with me
from the next page for more ☺
Connect with Me!
Click Button For Direct Access
More about Me http://www.alexkanaan.com
Read My Blog http://www.alexkanaan.com/#latestnews
Contact Me http://www.alexkanaan.com/#contact
Follow my Tweets @AlexKanDu
Connect on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/arkanaan

User Story Sizing using Agile Relative Estimation

  • 1.
  • 2.
  • 3.
    Connect with Me! ClickButton For Direct Access More about Me http://www.alexkanaan.com Read My Blog http://www.alexkanaan.com/#latestnews Contact Me http://www.alexkanaan.com/#contact Follow my Tweets @AlexKanDu Connect on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/arkanaan
  • 4.
    Let’s Get toKnow You! • Waterfall Experience • Agile Experience • Beginners • Intermediate • Advanced • Scrum • Kanban • SAFe
  • 5.
    Question How long doesit take 2 PM’s to change a lightbulb?
  • 6.
    Question How long doesit take 2 PM’s to change a lightbulb? HINT: THINK!!!
  • 7.
    Question How long doesit take 2 PM’s to change a lightbulb? Answer: Do you have a plan?
  • 8.
    Traditional Project Planning Creatinga project plan is simple? Identify tasks, durations & dependencies Find out who will do the work & estimate how long it will take them to do it Plug all into MS Project and voila! So one person assigned to a task that takes 48 hours, will finish it in 6 days, right?
  • 9.
  • 10.
    Out-of-Time? So how manyhours do you really have left to actually do the work in the plan?
  • 11.
    Planning for an8 hour day? Assuming 8 hrs a day to allocate to tasks is not realistic!! What should we do?
  • 12.
    Problems with TraditionalEstimates We spend too much time doing/redoing it But we rarely get it right - Fear of failure Lack of confidence/experience People are either pessimistic or optimistic Timeline may be too far into future Many unknowns, changes, dependencies
  • 13.
    Traditional Planning So howdo we estimate accurately how long it will take to get things done?
  • 14.
    Traditional Planning So howdo we estimate accurately how long it will take to get things done? Answer: You cannot!
  • 15.
    Self-Organize & Provethe Following! Fact: Humans stink at Estimating!
  • 16.
  • 17.
    Traditional Planning “It isbetter to be roughly right... than precisely wrong” John Maynard Keynes
  • 18.
  • 19.
    Relative Estimation Educated “finger-in-the-air”guess-timate that works!! Used in Product Backlog Uses comparing vs deconstructing Allows you to select a predictable volume of work to be done in a sprint Basis to do capacity based planning
  • 20.
    Sizing - WhyRelative Estimation Uses a Simple Scale Normalized Story Points Quick Estimates - Sizing a story K.I.S.S. - Keeps it Simple It’s all relative - comparing & evaluating one story to another
  • 21.
    Sizing - WhyRelative Estimation Allows PO to make tradeoffs Allows you to take on low hanging fruit first (more valuable stories)
  • 22.
    Let’s Get Started! Let’slearn how to use relative sizes for comparison
  • 23.
    How Much doesa Terrier Weigh? (estimate)
  • 24.
    No Idea? Because wearen’t comparing it to anything...yet!
  • 25.
  • 26.
    Where do wefit a Golden Retriever?
  • 27.
    Between Chihuahua &German Shepherd
  • 28.
    Let’s Up theChallenge! Lets use relative sizes to help us “fit” something new to our scale below
  • 29.
    Where do youfit a Terrier on the scale?
  • 30.
    More or Lessthan a German Shephard?
  • 31.
  • 32.
    More or lessthan a Retriever?
  • 33.
  • 34.
    More or lessthan a Chihuahua?
  • 35.
  • 36.
    About the sameas a Chihuahua
  • 37.
    How Much Doesa Terrier Weigh? HINT: This is what we know • Less than a German Shephard • Less than a retriever • About the same as a Chihuahua • But...we don’t know what a Chihuahua weighs Can You Answer NOW?
  • 38.
    What If YouHad this Table?
  • 39.
    Can You AnswerNOW?? (estimate) How much does a Terrier weigh?
  • 40.
    Yes…The Terrier Weighs... Roughlyabout the same as a Chihuahua, or 4-6 Ibs
  • 42.
    So how doesthis work in Agile? We create buckets of standard story sizes and ‘fit’ new stories in these buckets
  • 43.
    Do We IncludeTesting in Estimates?
  • 44.
  • 45.
    YES: Include itALL! ALL efforts in the process are included in the size estimate - including any spikes
  • 46.
    What is this? 1,2, 3, 5, 8,13
  • 47.
    What is this? ModifiedFibonacci Sequence 1, 2, 3, 5, 8,13 20, 40, 100, 200
  • 48.
    Size is notbased on effort alone Unlike Waterfall, when we size stories, we do NOT base it on effort alone!
  • 49.
    More to Sizethan Effort alone! Story Point Size is based on at least Effort Complexity Doubt
  • 50.
    Effort Doubt Complexity Same Effort -Different Size 5PT Effor t D C 1PT Both stories have the same effort, why is the estimate so different?
  • 51.
  • 52.
    Using T-Shirt Sizingfor your buckets Small 1pt Medium 2-3pt Large 5pt Extra Large 8 Points TOO BIG - Break into Smaller Stories
  • 53.
    Normalized Story Points •Pick a 1 pointer roughly equal 1 day • Agree with Team this is your one pointer in terms of effort, complexity and doubt • Compare new stories to it • Remember to use same scale within team
  • 54.
    Planning Poker Consent basedestimation technique I don’t use it with my teams because I find developers are much more comfortable with giving a relative number rather than an exact number Mike Cohn’s Website for a good explanation
  • 55.
    Do we usehours in planning? Yes: In sprint planning where your planning horizon is only your 2-3 weeks - sprint length
  • 56.
    Remember the Mantra! Pointsfor Stories, Hours for Tasks!
  • 57.
    Points for Stories,Hours for Tasks! Estimate Using When? For What? Stories Points Refinement Velocity Tasks Hours Sprint Planning Burndown Chart
  • 58.
    Tips on Sizing •Avoid confusion: Sizing vs Estimates • Use Story Points - choose & stick to scale • Break large stories to multiple small stories • Smaller stories have less uncertainty & easier to estimate more accurately • Only an estimate, don’t spend too much time • Team sizing efforts get better with time
  • 59.
    Relative Sizing Advantages •Sprint planning in minutes not hours! • Less Stress: Team doesn’t worry if estimates are not spot-on • Meeting sprint commitments starts to improve each sprint • We now have historical velocity that can be used towards future planning and accepting new projects
  • 60.
    Next Steps… If youliked my presentation, connect with me from the next page for more ☺
  • 61.
    Connect with Me! ClickButton For Direct Access More about Me http://www.alexkanaan.com Read My Blog http://www.alexkanaan.com/#latestnews Contact Me http://www.alexkanaan.com/#contact Follow my Tweets @AlexKanDu Connect on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/arkanaan