Application for IE Global MBA

2. 218 December 2014
 Demographic change - The population will increase to 9.5bn in 2050, people will live longer and the depedency ratio will increase
 Rapid urbanisation - The urban population will continue to grow and by 2030, almost 60% of the world's population will live in urban areas
 Scarcity of resources - Demand for water and food will increase leading to increasing prices. Scarcity will increase wealth disparity
 Smart cities – Technological breaktroughs will allow us to build smart cities which effectively uses and allocates resources
 Cities will grow into mega cities, the number of mega cities (+ 10 million inhabitants) will increase from 28 today to 41 by 2030
 Urbanisation often lead to increased waste, which will require smart solutions for management of waste disposal
 The number of cars will multiply to 1.7 billion vehicles by 2030 causing traffic cognation. Cities will have to invest in roads and public transportation
 Increasing demand for energy, food and water will require cities to develop ”smart cities”, which will lead to development of new infrastructure
 Cities will reflect their geographical location as water scarcity will reduce the use of water for gardening
 Cities will be more divided as disparity in wealth distribution increases and crime may raise. Mega cities will automatically form zones based on income
 In this document I have described how four mega trends will affect the development of future cities
 The four identified mega trends are: i) demographic changes, ii) rapid urbanisation, iii) scarcity of resources and iv) development of smart cities
Structure of
presentation
Mega trends
Future cities

3. 318 December 2014
1. Increasing population
2. Rapid urbanisation
Future cities
3. Scarcity of resources
4. Smart cities
Ledelses-
præsentati
on
Information
memorandu
m

4. 418 December 2014
0.3 0.4 0.4
2010A 2030E 2050E
Notes: 1) Total dependency ratio (<15 & 65+)/(15-64) by major area, region and country, 1950-2100 (ratio of population 0-14 and 65+ per 100 population
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision
6.9
8.4
9.6
2010A 2030E 2050E
World
+22%
+13%
1.0
1.6
2.4
2010A 2030E 2050E
4.2
4.9 5.2
2010A 2030E 2050E
0.7 0.7 0.7
2010A 2030E 2050E
0.6 0.7 0.8
2010A 2030E 2050E
Europe
Asia
Africa
Latin America
Northern America
Oceania:
Not highlighted in
analysis
Comments
64 52
69 74
1990 2010 2020 2040
Dependency ratio1
Effect on future cities
The healthcare system will
need to be more effective to
meet demands of the aging
population
Resources should be spent
more effeciently to feed a
growing population
Demographic development
 Total population will grow
1% p.a. towards 2030
 Total population will
exceed 8 billion in 2024
 Growth will come from
Asia and Africa
 The population in Africa
will increase 600m in 20
years, while Asia will
contribute with 721m
 Nigeria alone will grow
+100m, while China will
see growth of +93m
 Europe will see stagnation
and ultimately decline
Depedency ratio
 The dependency ratio will
increase from around 50%
today to 74% in 2040
globally
 The depdency ratio is
affected by longer average
life
Population in billions
Effect on future cities

5. 518 December 2014
 More than two thirds of the 15 biggest urban agglomerations in 2030 are located in
Asia, with Tokyo still being the largest megacity of all
 The urban population will continue to grow. By 2030, almost 60% of the world's
population will live in urban areas, compared with around 53% today
 The absolute number of people living in urban areas will increase by more than 1.2
billion people. The growth will be 0.1 billion in developed countries and 1.1 billion in
developing countries
 While in developed countries, 78% of the population live in urban areas today, only
around 48% of people do so in developing countries. However, this wide gap will
narrow due to the strong urbanization process in developing countries. By 2030,
82% of the population in developed countries and almost 56% of the population in
developing countries will live in urban areas
Degree of urbanisation Development of selected megacities
78% 80% 82%
53%
56%
60%
48% 51%
56%
2013 2020 2030
Developed countries World Developing countries
Development in degree of urbanisation
Development of selected megacities
Tokyo
2013: 37.7m
2030: 38.9m
Shanghai
2013: 21.5m
2030: 31.6m
Delhi
2013: 24.1m
2030: 37.3m
Lagos
2013: 12.1m
2030: 22.6m
Sao Paulo
2013: 20.5m
2030: 24.5m
New York
2013: 20.8m
2030: 24.8m
Effect on future cities
 Crime: is a serious security issue in metropolises. Uncontrolled expansion of low income population can lead to an increase in crime
 Traffic: in 1970, there were around 200 million cars worldwide. By 2030, this number is predicted to multiply to around 1.7 billion vehicles, causing heavy air pollution and traffic
congestion
 Energy consumption: Cities consume two thirds of global energy consumption. A challenge for megacities is to find a smart solution to ensure enough energy while producing
low carbon emissions
 Waste management: In rapidly growing megacities, growing industry and changing consumer behavior are provoking uncontrollable amounts of waste. Organizing waste
disposal is a major challenge for each megacity
Mumbai
2013: 20.5m
2030: 29.7m
Effect on future cities

6. 618 December 2014
 Demand is increasing… As populations become
more affluent, the consumption of food per capita
increases, as does the uptake in global calorie
consumption per capita. This is also correlated with
higher meat intake.
 Food supply is not at the same rate... Most usable
land has already been cultivated, resulting in a
slowing growth in agricultural yields. Other factors
such as land degradation and urbanisation are
causing available agricultural land to diminish at an
even faster rate
 Food prices are increasing... In recent years,
decreased food availability has resulted in an
increase in global food price inflation, exacerbating
malnutrition across developing countries. In a bid to
ensure the security of food supplies, significant
environmental stresses are being placed on
agricultural ecosystems. The impact of widespread
deforestation and excessive water extraction are a
growing cause for concern
 800 million people are chronically undernourised,
with insufficient food for an active and healthy life
 Almost half the world’s population will live in areas of
high water stress, where water is physically or
economically scarce
 Goverments will have to invest in water cycling
infrastrcture and enforce regulation on water usage
 Cities will reflect their geographical location and can
no longer artificially support a ”green look”
 Demand for food and increasing food prices will
increase the difference between the poorest and the
richest in our cities
 43 per cent of urban inhabitants in developing
countries live in slums and 72 per cent of the urban
population in sub-Saharan Africa. Half of the world’s
population is projected to live in slums by 2030
 Cities will be more divided as disparity in wealth
distribution increases
... The world is hungry
Source: FAO, Roland Berger Strategy, Economic Policy Institute, “State of Working America, 2011 Wealth Tables. -
Water scarcity… Scarcity creates inequality...
2,629
2,077
398
765
279
1,203637
1,367
40 55
3,984
5,467
2013 2050
Irrigation Domestic Livestock Manufacturing Electricity
+37.2%
Demand is increasing...A
km3
5,992 – 609,091 (High level of renewable sources)
1,791 – 5,992 (Medium level of renewable sources)
7 – 1,791 (Low level of renewable sources)
… but resources are limited
Total renewable water resources per capita by
country, 2008 [m3/inhabitant/year]
B
“Clean water and sanitary facilities are a key factor for
a growing and healthy city – a major challenge for
megacities all around the globe”. Source: WWF 125%
176% 173% 181%
288%
1962 1992 2001 2007 2010
Ratio of average Top 1% Wealth to median
wealth (1962 – 2010) in North America
Effect on future cities

7. 718 December 2014
Source: http://www.districtoffuture.eu/