A panel presentation held at the Meeting on Lagos Metropolitan Sustainable Development organized by Urbanistes Sans Frontieres, held on Monday 21st October 2019 at Alliance Francaise de Lagos/ Mike Adenuga Centre, Ikoyi, Lagos.

1. Sustainable
Development of the
Lagos Megacity:
Issues for Spatial
Planning
A panel presentation held at the Meeting on Lagos Metropolitan Sustainable Development
organized by Urbanistes Sans Frontieres, held on Monday 21st October, 2019 at Alliance
Francaise de Lagos/ Mike Adenuga Centre , Ikoyi, Lagos.
By
Dr Samuel Oritsetimeyin Dekolo MNITP, RTP, MIEEE
Department of Urban and Regional Planning
School of Environmental Studies
Lagos State Polytechnic, Ikorodu, Lagos.
Email: dekolo.s@mylaspotech.edu.ng, sam.dekolo@gmail.com

2. Contents
2
Introduction
1.0 The Concept of Sustainable Development
2.0 The Growth of Lagos Megacity and the Sustainability Question
3.0 The Panacea of Spatial Planning for Sustainable Development

3. 1.
The Concept of
Sustainable
Development
An Introduction
3

4. 1.0 THE CONCEPT OF
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
╺ Sustainable Development can simply be defined
as "development which meets the needs of the
present without compromising the ability of future
generations to meet their own needs." - The
Brundtland Report, 1987
╺ The Rio Declaration: "the right to development must
be fulfilled so as to equitably meet developmental
and environmental needs of present and future
generations." -Earth Summit, June 1992, Rio de
Janeiro
╺ Sustainability is the foundation for trending global
framework for international cooperation – the 2030
Agenda for Sustainable Development and
its Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
4

5. … THE CONCEPT OF
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
╺ The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable
Development was adopted with its 17 Goals
in 2015 by all UN Member States
╺ The transformative 17 SDGs were actionable,
measurable and implementation is targeted
by 2030
╺ The success of the 2030 Agenda is
dependent on countries taking ownership,
localizing the 17 SDGs and developing a
National Framework for implementation
5

6. 6
PEOPLE
Goal 1: No Poverty
Goal 2: Zero Hunger
Goal 3: Good Health
and Well-being
Goal 4: Quality
Education
Goal 5: Gender
Equality
PLANET
Goal 6: Clean Water
and Sanitation
Goal 12: Responsible
Consumption and
Production
Goal 13: Climate
Action
Goal 14: Life Below
Water
Goal 15: Life on Land
PROSPERITY
Goal 7: Affordable
and Clean Energy
Goal 8: Decent Work
and Economic
Growth
Goal 9: Industry,
Innovation and
Infrastructure
Goal 10: Reduced
Inequalities
Goal 11: Sustainable
Cities and
Communities
PEACE
Goal 16: Peace,
Justice and Strong
Institutions
PARTNERSHIPS
Goal 17:
Partnerships for the
Goals
…THE FIVE “P” OF SUSTAINABILITY

7. “
“No one will be left
behind” –UN, 2015
7

8. 2.
THE GROWTH
OF LAGOS
MEGACITY AND
THE
SUSTAINABILITY
QUESTION
8

9. THE GROWTH OF THE
LAGOS MEGACITY
╺ The Lagos Metropolis is the continuous built area
spanning virtually over all the Local Government
Areas of Lagos State, and extending into the
Neighbouring Ogun State.
╺ It is ranked by United Nations (World
Urbanization Prospects, 2018 Revision) as 17th
among the 30 current largest cities in the world.
╺ The UN estimates its population to be 14.37
Million. This is expected to reach 24.42 Million by
2035. (This estimate does not cover the entire
Lagos State).
9

10. THE LAGOS MEGACITY
10

11. 11
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Lagos 4 764 5 983 7 281 8 859 10 441 12 239 14 368 17 156 20 600 24 419
Kano 2 095 2 339 2 602 2 895 3 221 3 583 3 999 4 645 5 551 6 579
Ibadan 1 739 1 993 2 236 2 509 2 814 3 157 3 552 4 144 4 956 5 874
Abuja 330 526 833 1 316 1 814 2 442 3 278 4 210 5 119 6 071
Port Harcourt 680 845 1 091 1 407 1 816 2 344 3 020 3 794 4 595 5 449
Benin City 689 845 975 1 124 1 296 1 495 1 727 2 045 2 451 2 906
Onitsha 337 418 533 681 869 1 109 1 415 1 767 2 138 2 536
Uyo 194 261 350 470 631 848 1 136 1 457 1 771 2 101
Kaduna 785 832 881 933 988 1 046 1 113 1 260 1 499 1 776
Aba 484 551 630 721 825 943 1 081 1 275 1 527 1 810
Nnewi 160 219 300 411 562 770 1 051 1 362 1 659 1 967
Ilorin 515 572 633 700 774 856 950 1 100 1 314 1 557
Ikorodu 174 226 300 399 531 706 938 1 197 1 454 1 724
Jos 493 547 604 666 734 809 895 1 035 1 236 1 465
Owerri 266 324 395 482 587 716 873 1 064 1 282 1 520
Warri 184 238 307 397 513 663 856 1 076 1 304 1 546
Maiduguri 499 538 580 625 674 727 786 899 1 071 1 269
Umuahia 136 181 243 324 434 580 774 990 1 204 1 427
Enugu 363 412 467 529 600 680 773 907 1 085 1 286
Zaria 592 625 643 662 682 702 726 810 961 1 138
Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2018
Revision and World Urbanization Prospects
Population of Nigeria's 20 Largest Cities (1990-2035)
(‘000)

12. 12
Lagos, 24 419
Kano, 6 579
Ibadan, 5 874
Abuja, 6 071
Port Harcourt, 5 449
Benin City, 2 906
Onitsha, 2 536
Uyo, 2 101
Kaduna, 1 776
Aba, 1 810
Nnewi, 1 967
Ilorin, 1 557
Ikorodu, 1 724
Jos, 1 465
Owerri, 1 520
Warri, 1 546
Maiduguri, 1 269
Umuahia, 1 427
Enugu, 1 286
Zaria, 1 138
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Population
(Thousands
'000)
Population of Nigeria's 20 Largest Cities (1990-2035)
Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations
Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2018 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects

13. THE GROWTH OF THE
LAGOS MEGACITY
╺ The megacity has experienced tremendous
spatial and demographic growth which has led to
continuous loss of natural resources, forest and
agricultural land to built-up areas.
╺ Prevailing global and local sustainability problems
linked to deforestation, biodiversity loss, food
insecurity, climate change, carbon emission etc,
are consequences of unsustainable use of land or
unsustainable land management practices.
╺ The consequences of the sporadic growth of
Lagos is manifested in several obvious
challenges (environmental, economic and socio-
cultural).
13

14. CONSEQUENCES ON
SDG 2: ZERO HUNGER
╺ The loss of agricultural lands due to land use conversion is a major threat to
sustainability and food security in sub-Saharan Africa
╺ 94.1% global croplands are situated within the peri-urban zone, i.e., 20km
distance range from urban extents of more than 50,000 people (Thebo,
Drechsel, & Lambin, 2014).
╺ A recent study by Bren d’Amour et al. (2017), urban peripheral expansion will
drive future global crop loss.
╶ Projection: 2.4% of the global croplands will be lost by 2030 to urban
expansion.
╶ Asia and Africa will be responsible for 80% of the global cropland loss
due to emerging mega-urban regions.
╺ 2.1 Mha of cropland will be lost in Nigeria by 2030 (i.e., 6% of the global
loss).
14
GLOBAL HOTSPOTS
FOR CROPLAND
LOSS
A EGYPT
B LAKE VICTORIA
C NIGERIA
D INDIA
 E EASTERN CHINA

15. How can we meet the target of Zero Hunger (SDG2)?
15
• Nigeria’s total population grew from 45.2
million in 1961 to 176.5 million in
2014.
• However, arable land per person in
Nigeria dwindled from 0.51 hectares in
1961 to 0.19 hectares in 2014 with a
declining rate of 1.81%.
• This trend is similar globally and in sub-
Saharan Africa with decline rates of
1.15% and 1.88% respectively
• If this trend continues, it is apparent that
Food Insecurity looms in the nearest
future
0
50
100
150
200
Millions
Population
Year
Population,
total
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1961
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2014
Hectares
Arable land per capita
World
Sub-
Saharan
Africa
Nigeria
Source: World Development Indicators (World Bank, 2017)

16. Where are the Statutory Agricultural Lands in Lagos State?
16
╺ The Lagos State Regional Plan (1980-2000) had 114,271 hectares of land allocated to agricultural land use in
Ikorodu, Badagry, Epe and Ibeju-Lekki LGAs
╺ The Lagos State Agricultural Land Holdings Authority Law (1986) revoked all right of occupancies in agricultural
zones in the regional plan permits allocation of land in the zone for agricultural purposes only
╺ In spite of existing laws and regulations, conversion of statutory agricultural to residential development have
persisted in Lagos State
Epe
Badagry
Ikorodu
Ojo
Ibeju Lekki
Eti Osa
Alimosho
Kosofe
Lagoon(Common)
Ikeja
Amuwo Odofin Ibeju Lekki
Apapa
Oshodi/Isolo
Ibeju Lekki
Surulere
Ifako/Ijaye
Mushin
Agege
Shomolu
Lagos Mainland
Ajeromi/IfelodunLagos Island
Ikorodu
18,383.5 ha
Badagry
15,966.92 ha
Epe
19,986.3 ha
Ibeju-Lekki
59,934

17. Lost to Urban Sprawl and STILL LOOSING
17
• A recent study of Ikorodu and Badagry shows that Lagos State lost approximately 25% of’s
Statutory Agricultural Lands between 1984 and 2016 .
• This confirms previous studies identifying the Greater-Lagos-Ibadan-Ghana (GILA) corridor as a
global hotspot for cropland loss by 2030 (Bren d’Amour et al., 2017)

18. ╺ The adoption of the 2030 Agenda for
Sustainable Development is to ensure that
everyone in every place has the right the basic
necessities of life.
╺ Pledges were made to “endeavour to reach the
furthest behind first.”
╺ Sustainable Development is about PEOPLE today
and the PEOPLE in the future.
╺ Sustainability is not just about NATURAL
RESOURCES but how EQUITABLY shared and
RESPONSIBLY consumed.
╺ A Sustainable City reduces INEQUALITY
18
CHALLENGES IN
LAGOS MEGACITY
GROWTH:
POVERTY

19. “
“We cannot seek achievement for
ourselves and forget about
progress and prosperity for our
community… Our ambitions must
be broad enough to include the
aspirations and needs of others,
for their sakes and for our own” –
Cesar Chavez
19

20. ╺ Continuous influx of unidentified and homeless
people into Lagos
╺ Increased number of uneducated and jobless youth
╺ Increased inequality gaps
╺ Higher health and safety risks
╺ Lack of investments in public health and education
╺ Insecurity, violence and threat to life
╺ Inadequate and Insufficient policing and intelligence
20
IS ANYONE LEFT
BEHIND?

21. UNEMPLOYEMENT: WE ARE
SITTING ON GUN POWDER

22. IS ANYONE LEFT
BEHIND?
╺ Mobility is a major issue for a future Lagos
╺ The number of highways are inadequate to meet
the present demand, how much more in 2035?
╺ The BRT system is inadequate to meet the daily
demand of the teeming population in Lagos
╺ The Light rail project is due to take off in 2022,
but will it be adequate?
╺ Need for intercity rail between Lagos and other
Nigerian cities
╺ UberBoat just started boat taxi services, needs
expansion
╺ Poor state of transportation infrastructure
22

23. 23
THE CHANGING FACE OF
TRANSPORTATION IN LAGOS

24. 3.
THE PANACEA
OF SPATIAL
PLANNING FOR
SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT
24

25. …SPATIAL PLANNING
╺ There must be a paradigm shift from the traditional
land use planning to Spatial Planning
╺ Planning is MORE THAN DEVELOPMENT CONTROL.
╺ It sets out a strategic framework to guide future
development and policy interventions.
╺ A spatial planning framework will include the overall
strategy to be adopted by the public sector to
influence the distribution of people and activities in
spaces of various scales (local, regional, national).
╺ It applies SPATIAL TECHNOLOGIES in urban growth
management, land use planning, urban planning,
regional planning, transport planning, social
planning, economic planning, community planning
and environment planning.
25

26. …SUGGESTIONS
╺ INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORKS
╺ Need to define statutorily the Megacity extents an its
spatial planning units synchronized with governance
units. Every level of governance with its statutory
responsibility
╺ Statutory reclassification of spatial hierarchies for
adequate spatial planning and management (Eg,
Ikorodu).
╺ Develop Spatial Planning Framework across levels
╺ Adoption of spatial technologies for data acquisition
within the megacities extents.
╺ Awareness of the SDGs implementation framework in
MDAs and various levels of governance
╺ Adoption of e-governance in planning administration
26

27. …SUGGESTIONS
╺ SPATIAL PLANNING
• Develop optimal density that meets the present
growth challenge
• Adopt urban infilling strategies
• Adopt mixed use
• Adopt compact and smart growth and restrain urban
sprawl
• Adopt Eco-city, green-city, urban-farming
╺ Future smart technologies for surveillance and
security.
╺ Smart city, smart building approaches
╺ Urban planning and sprawl management.
╺ Adequate infrastructure and social facilities
╺ Intermodal mobility strategies: Ferries, Light rails,
cables, etc.
27

28. THANK YOU
AND GOD BLESS YOU
28