Emily Hough finds out more about the Future Cities Catapult initiative, a global laboratory and hub that have been set up to help shape the urban environment of the future. Out now in Crisis Response Journal, 10:1

1. smart, resilient cities
Within just a century, humanity’s
established pattern of urban-rural
settlement that stretches back
thousands of years will have undergone a
complete polar reversal. In 1950, 70 per cent
of people lived in urban settlements and less
than a third in urban environments. By 2050,
the UN estimates that the reverse will be true:
just one third of the world’s population will live
in rural areas, with the rest being city dwellers.
Today, we have 28 megacities, home
to some 453 million people, the largest
of which include Tokyo, Delhi, Shanghai,
Mexico City, Mumbai and São Paulo.
But the fastest growing urban agglomerations
are medium-sized cities – those housing
one to fi ve million inhabitants – along
those that have fewer than one million
inhabitants, mostly in Asia and Africa.
Inextricably meshed
The world’s urban areas have seen rapid
growth before, of course, but not on such an
unprecedented scale and, today, we have the
added pressures of climate change, along with
the increased scarcity of energy and water
supplies, fi nancial networks that are inextricably
meshed on an international scale, and greater
pollution and transportation issues. Our
dependencies and vulnerabilities are manifold,
sometimes known, sometimes unexpected.
But we also have human creativity,
allied with ever-evolving technology.
The British Technology Strategy Board
recently established a programme to set up
and oversee a new network of technology
Crisis Response Journal 10:1 41
Propelling us
into the future
Emily Hough speaks
to Sir David King to
fi nd out more about
the Future Cities
Catapult initiative,
a global laboratory
and hub set up
to help shape the
urban development
of the future

2. and innovation centres, named the Catapult
Programme. There are seven Catapults:
Satellite Applications; Cell Therapy; Transport
Systems; Renewable Energy; Connected Digital
Economy; High Value Manufacturing; and
Future Cities. Each Catapult brings together
business, scientists and engineers to work
on research and development to transform
ideas into new products and services to
generate economic growth. In essence,
this is similar to the Fraunhofer network
set up to help rebuild Germany’s economy
after WWII, but it differs in that whereas the
Fraunhofer network is university-led, the UK
system is driven by business. The aim is
to act as a bridge between universities and
early stage research, and businesses that
are carrying out product development.
The importance that is accorded to resilience
and climate within the Future Cities Catapult
is clearly underlined by the appointment
of Sir David King as its Chairman.
From 2000 to 2007, Sir David was Chief
Scientifi c Advisor to the UK Government, and
worked closely with the Prime Minister and
Cabinet on key scientifi c issues, including
that of climate change. Professor King was
instrumental in setting up the Smith School of
Enterprise and the Environment at the University
of Oxford to address global challenges. The
UK Foreign Secretary appointed Sir David
as his permanent Special Representative
for Climate Change in September 2013.
When asked about the biggest challenge or
risk facing tomorrow’s cities, experts appear
sanguine about global population growth,
which is stabilising. According to Sir David:
“The true challenge is the proportion of the
population that can be described as ‘middle
class’, defi ned as those who spend between
$10 and $100 a day,” he comments.
In 2000, the global middle class population
was around one billion, one sixth of the
world’s total. Last year, this fi gure passed
two billion, and the extrapolation forward,
based on the best analysis available, is for
the middle classes to top fi ve billion out of a
global population of eight billion by 2030.
This rising global middle class is a large
consumer of resources. And we know
that our planet’s resources are fi nite.
“Of course, this growth is good news,” insists
Sir David. “Everyone wants to be middle class.”
But it brings two massive challenges – the fi rst
being how to provide the commodities – water,
land availability, food and energy – required
by this rapid middle class expansion.
Commodity prices are roughly two-and-a-
half times higher than they were in the
1980s, and far, far greater than in Victorian
times. “That is a direct result of the rising
middle class creating a greater demand and
the resource scarcity issue,” he says.
Nor can we ignore the effects of a rapidly
burgeoning middle class on the global
commons. “Climate change is overlaid on
this rapid growth, as well as the issue of rapid
ocean acidifi cation,” he explains. “Eighty per
cent of our cities are on coastlines. Those
cities depend very heavily on ocean marine
life for protein, and all of the latest detailed
studies on the acidifi cation of the oceans
indicate that marine life is under heavy threat.”
“The bottom line is that the challenges
facing us in the 21st Century are qualitatively
different to the challenges we managed
successfully in the 20th Century,” Sir
David continues. “Going forward in time,
the biggest risk associated with urban
development is that most of the rapid emerging
middle class is going to be city-based.
“There is going to be a massive
and rapid demand for urban dwelling
space and the risk is that this happens
in a random and unplanned way.”
Indeed, it is already occurring: “Take the
example of New Delhi, which has recently
expanded with a large new, middle class,
relatively expensive housing development.
As it turns out, the area that was developed
has very little water provision, so water is
being sent in using tankers,” he says.
Magnetism
To avoid future similar issues in future
developments, a massive capability in terms
of best practice – or even next practice, as
well as planning, will be needed. In many
ways the old days of urban development
are past, adaptation is the new imperative.
While cities are a magnet, drawing people
off the land, they must make use of their
capability to provide an engine for growth.
“If we get this right, we will be creating new
urban environments that put human wellbeing
fi rst,” says Sir David, describing cities where
people can walk and cycle to most of the
amenities they require for their daily lives and
where they have access to mixed facilities:
houses, green parks for leisure, shopping, and
work. “The paradox is that the European cities
built in the Middle Ages before the arrival of the
car make the ideal city for the 21st Century,”
he continues, noting that rising oil prices are
also pushing aside the notion that cars are
the only future means of transport. “We need
to be looking at walkability, ‘cyclability’ and
mass transit as the means of getting around.”
Vertical farming – a solution to city food supply?
Matthew Humphreys | University of Nottingham
As the world’s population becomes increasingly urbanised the
pressures upon agriculture to supply the necessary food are
becoming critical, writes Professor Tim Heath, Professor of
Architecture & Urban Design at the University of Nottingham.
Vertical farming could provide an innovative solution to this challenge,
particularly in cities that are some distance from farmland or in areas with
poor or no fertile agricultural land. Such a farm would involve the cultivation
of crops on multiple levels within high-rise buildings in urban areas. Heath &
Shao (2014) suggest that this method of agriculture can enable year-round
crop production; use 70 per cent less water and no agro-chemicals; avoid
the adverse environmental factors that affect yield and quality; and eliminate
the fi nancial and environmental costs of importing food into urban areas.
It is over 20 years since the concept was fi rst proposed and
there are still only a few small-scale prototypes primarily due to
technological and fi nancial viability (Heath et al 2012). The concept
is, however, now practical and the technologies required for plant
growth are available with Despommier (2010) describing vertical farms
as: “A fundamental solution” to the world’s urban food needs.
To make the leap from concept to practice will, however, require the
support of governments or pioneering organisations. Although only
likely to be a sensible solution in cities with limited access to good
quality agricultural land, vertical farms can make a huge contribution
to food security and could transform the everyday lives of city dwellers.
Indeed, cities with over 10 million residents require up to 7,000 tons
of food to be imported and vertical farms could be one of a package of
more sustainable alternatives to meeting this requirement. Hopefully,
in the near future we will see large-scale vertical farms, together with
less commercial urban agriculture such as communal and individual
allotments, balcony gardens, etc producing food in the heart of cities.
■ Despommier, D (2010). The Vertical Farm: Feeding
the World in the 21st Century, Picador, London;
■ Heath, T, Zhu, Y & Shao, Y (2012): Vertical farms: a high-rise
solution to feeding the city? CTBUH 9th World Congress;
■ Heath, T & Shao, Y (2014): Can Vertical Farms Solve the World’s
Urban Food Needs? The Conversation, www.theconversation.com.
42 Resources, links, pictures, videos and much more are available for subscribers in our digital and online editions www.crisis-response.com

3. “The complete elimination of waste,” is
another area that cities of the future must get
to grips with. “Waste should be looked upon as
a recyclable resource. I mean normal detritus
from human living, human solid waste and the
recovery of liquid waste from humans too,” he
elaborates. It is a natural progression to consider
such recycled waste within an agricultural
context. “Cities have to become more
independent of their agricultural environment as
much as possible. These urban areas need to
look at producing market foods, especially those
that have a very short shelf life. We must have
small parts within cities allocated to farming.”
So the good news is that if all this is done
well, cities will become self-sustaining and
resilient and, just as importantly, pleasant
places to live and work. Not so positive is the
fact that time is a luxury we cannot afford.
“We have a very short time period from
the beginning of this century before we have
multiplied the amount of urban dwellers by
a factor of fi ve. This is a massively rapid
transformation on a scale we haven’t seen
before,” explains Sir David. The trouble
is, such transformation will require both
behavioural and infrastructural change, neither
of which are likely to happen overnight.
But there are beacons of progress shining
across the globe. “We must cast around the
world and look for best practice. For example,
Singapore is one of the cities I would set out for
best practice with regards to water management.
“Every drop of rain is treated as a precious
asset and all water, including human waste, is
recycled and turned back into drinkable water.”
He also lists London as a good example of
traffi c management, but the transformation
of Bogotá in Colombia is even greater,
according to Sir David, who describes how
Mayor Enrique Peñasola transformed the
city in three years at very little cost.
Bogotá was a city choked by traffi c, its fi ve
lane highways in and out of the city clogged with
vehicles. The Mayor decreed that the outer lane
would be reserved entirely for pedestrians; the
second lane for bicycles only; the third lane was
allocated for buses that make frequent stops;
the fourth was reserved for those that only make
a few stops; and the fi fth lane was for cars.
The private sector stepped in very quickly
with: “Extraordinary buses that look more like
trains. When the bus stops, large numbers of
doors open up and people get on and off very
quickly.” Today, people can get into work on
time, congestion has evaporated from the centre
of the city and whereas before pedestrians
had to dodge into the street to avoid parked
cars, they are reclaiming the pavements.
South Korea provides another good case,
says Sir David, who highlights far-sighted
government investment into creating new jobs
and providing economic engines for growth.
Which brings us onto the Future Cities
Catapult. “We’re in one of the world’s greatest
cities – London – creating a global hub and a
Sir David King,
Chairman of the
Future Cities
Catapult, will be
a speaker at this
year’s World Cities
event, to be held in
London, October
9-10, 2014. See page
78 for more details
The bottom line is that the challenges facing us in the
21st Century are qualitatively di erent to the challenges
we managed successfully in the 20th Century
smart, resilient cities
global urban laboratory where we can co-ordinate,
bring together and integrate best
practice, using the best available technology.
“We have high speed computers to
model existing structures of cities, then
work these models through to visualise
how these developments would work in
practice, so we can alter the changes that
have been made until what emerges from
these models achieves our objectives.”
Sir David was appointed Chairman of the
Future Cities Catapult in May 2013; it now has
a full board and nearly 50 staff, but this is set
to increase soon. The Catapult’s home is in
Clerkenwell, London, in a large building which,
when refurbished, will not only have room for
the laboratory, but also plenty of space to act
as a global hub. “We have a full range of people
around the world involved in urban development
coming into this space to work with us,” Sir
David tells me. “Not only do we have to bring
together political decision-makers, mayors,
councillors and government offi cials, but key
development agencies, fi nanciers, development
banks, private sector companies, universities...”
So, what is the desired outcome
in, say, fi ve years?
“This is a key question,” he replies. A
fi ve-year plan is absolutely critical.” Having
gathered, “A bunch of brilliant people,” the
challenge now is getting them to pull together.
“We are a start-up, so we have to be
patient, while keeping our eye on the big
picture. We intend to stimulate the private
sector to be well positioned on the global
scene and, fi ve years hence, we will be
engaging more and more of our private
sector companies in these enterprises. In
Britain, Europe and the rest of the world.”
The Catapults, which are not for profi t,
receive generous government funding –
around £10 million a year for fi ve years – but
Sir David envisages more: “In fi ve years,
I imagine our staff will be well in excess
of 100, we will have raised another £20
million a year for operational purposes, we
will have a total funding of three times as
much and we will be engaged in a number
of major urban projects around the world.
“We hope to have exemplar development
in India, China, Africa and in Europe,” he
continues, explaining that although the
Future Cities Catapult will not be developing
these projects, it will be closely involved
in facilitating and working the process
to benefi t other cities and projects.
“We want cities that can be used as best case
examples that others can learn from,” Sir David
emphasises by way of conclusion. CRJ
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4. WORLD CITIES CONFERENCE
In partnership with:
SAFE, SECURE, SMART AND RESILIENT
PRE-CONFERENCE WORKSHOP
8 OCTOBER 2014
THE CRYSTAL, LONDON
MAIN CONFERENCE
9-10 OCTOBER 2014
BRITISH LIBRARY, LONDON
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MAJOR THEMES
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