Entitlements built on per capita emissions A convergence principle towards a just and sustainable norm Trading allowed only after entitlements have been fixed
ONLY ONE LANE BEING USED BY CARS
ONLY ONE LANE BEING USED BY CARS
ONLY ONE LANE BEING USED BY CARS
ONLY ONE LANE BEING USED BY CARS
ONLY ONE LANE BEING USED BY CARS
ONLY ONE LANE BEING USED BY CARS
ONLY ONE LANE BEING USED BY CARS
Berlin Urban Symposium
Anumita Roychowdhury Centre for Science and Environment, India Symposium: What Makes India urban? Aedes East: International Forum for Contemporary Architecture Berlin, October 10, 2009 Urban Environmental Challenges: Making livable cities
Unprecedented urban growth 1950-2006: The urban population of the world has increased from 739 million to 3.2 billion. By 2025 around 65 per cent of the world’s population is projected to live in cities. By 2010 more than 75 per cent of the world’s urban population will live in poorer countries ( State of the World 2007 ). More than 40 per cent of the world children are estimated to be living in polluted cities of developing world ( WHO ). A billion more will be added over the next three decades in Asia – almost adding a whole new India. More than half of them will be living in cities What about India?
Growth of cities Exponential annual growth in urban population during 1940s, 50s and 70s … Agrarian crisis pushed people out of villages. They came to cities in search of livelihood ….. Growing steadily during 80s and 90s: Share of urban population increased from 17.3%in 1951 to 27.78% in 2001. Urban population is projected to grow in the coming decades. The total urban population is already almost equal to the total population of the United States
Problem of skewed growth <ul><li>Top heavy growth : Growth is not evenly distributed. Bulk of industrial and manufacturing concentrate around a few large cities…..A few overpowering cities have more than 10 million population </li></ul><ul><li>About 35 cities with more than a million population each are growing faster than the smaller cities </li></ul><ul><li>Shadow growth : Top rung cities that have grown due to in-migration and aerial expansion show strong trend towards suburbanisation. </li></ul><ul><li>Asymmetrical growth : There are about 4368 towns and cities (2001). But 69% of the urban populations is concentrated in just 393 (9%) cities. But the remaining 30% of the urban people are distributed in the remaining 3979 towns and cities. </li></ul><ul><li>Stagnation at the bottom : The transformation of rural settlement as urban centres is not so pronounced. Lower rung towns largely stagnating. Some have grown due to infrastructure investments and rural to urban migration. </li></ul>
Inequity, social and environmental imbalances in cities <ul><li>Big cities have not been able to absorb labor and investments within the formal sector of economy leading to problem of slums and informal economy. Overall 21% of urban population live in slums. Nearly 40-50 per cent of people live in slums of Mumbai. </li></ul><ul><li>About 25.7% of the urban population live below the poverty line. More in bigger cities. </li></ul><ul><li>Urban planning has tried density control through physical planning but failed to check in-migration or address the issue of basic services. </li></ul><ul><li>Social and environmental impacts of these trends are severe as there is also high level of inequity in the provision of basic services in cities. Poor are pushed to periphery. </li></ul>
Maximum city `Vision Mumbai’ (Mackinsy Plan)… Build another Shanghai… it hits out at poor… reduce slums… build free ways and expressways…. What about equity? 49% of population are in slums……..
Urban sprawl – glitzy towns in dark shadows….. Privatised new towns…… Town of affluents but infratructure of poor -- 70% of water needs from ground water; Groundwater table falling at a rate of 1 to 1.2 meters annually; dropped by 16 meters in last 20 years -- Only 40% of the DLF area connected by sewer line -- Only 70-75% of solid waste transported; No landfill site -- Poor public transport connectivity -- Due to acute power shortage heavy dependence on generator-sets -- Violation of development rules related to open spaces and community services
How are we going to manage this growth? <ul><li>The issue is not about growth but about distribution, equity and urban governance </li></ul><ul><li>Air pollution and mobility crisis : Cities are being built for a small group of car owners, disregarding the mobility needs of the majority of urban population. Pollution and congestion costs high. </li></ul><ul><li>Water and waste water : In 25 per cent of the cities there are no provision for collecting sewage. In 28% of cities more than 80% of the sewage is not collected. Only in 4.16% of cities about 80% of the sewage is collected. The gap between demand and supply is increasing. Each summer is getting worse. Per capita water supply ranges from 9 lpcd to 584 lpcd across urban India. ….. </li></ul><ul><li>Solid waste and hazardous waste : 120,000 tonnes of garbage everyday in Indian cities. But very limited disposal, re-use and recycling capacities. Waste to energy remains a non-starter. Colonisation of land for waste disposal is leading to conflicts. </li></ul><ul><li>Energy impacts : Cities are products of abundant cheap energy. Wide gap in demand and supply, wastage. One third of India living in cities consumes 87% of nation’s electricity. Remains energy inefficient. Both direct use of energy like fuels for vehicles, electricity, heating, cooling, etc and also embodied energy of building materials, and consumer items etc. are high and wasteful. </li></ul><ul><li>Land constraints : Urban sprawl build more inefficiencies </li></ul>
But we have a chance to grow differently Our cities are built differently …… Delhi Kolkata Bangalore Kolkata in 19 th century Mumbai If cities are big in scale and density this makes waste treatment, recycling facilities, and public transport more efficient. High urban density makes resource use more efficient and cities more sustainable. Our urban planning needs to build on this strength. …..But efficiency gains can be limited in Indian cities due to poor urban governance….. Source: Urban age London
Growing pollution and toxification: new struggles in cities <ul><li>Cities in grip of toxic model of growth: Intensive use of energy and materials leading to huge amounts of waste -- pollution. </li></ul><ul><li>Major health impacts – toxic air causes one death per hour, dirty water is the biggest killer of babies till date… </li></ul><ul><li>Where will the future growth take us? It all depends on the choices we make </li></ul>
Positioning the debate <ul><li>Air pollution, public health, energy and vehicles….. </li></ul>
India: Proliferating pollution hotspots Source: Estimated based on CPCB data, comparison with residential area standard Half of the cities are critically polluted due to high level of tiny particles (PM10). Even NO2 is rising – a twin trouble
Deadly particles: Unacceptable levels The PM10 trend in key cities Source: Estimated based on CPCB data, comparison with residential area standard
Source: CPCB Deepening crisis Not just the big cities. Even smaller cities and towns have started scaling the pollution peaks 180 Kanpur 169 Noida 166 Jamshedpur 168 Jamshedpur 10 185 Firozabad 174 Jalandhar 183 Agra 169 Lucknow 9 189 Lucknow 184 Kanpur 187 Jalandhar 172 Ghaziabad 8 200 Agra 191 Lucknow 189 Kanpur 180 Satna 7 205 Khurja 205 Agra 190 Satna 186 Kanpur 6 206 Satna 213 Satna 192 Lucknow 206 Agra 5 211 Ludhiana 222 Khanna 203 Raipur 215 Jalandhar 4 215 Khanna 229 Gobindgarh 233 Ludhiana 220 Rajkot 3 232 Ghaziabad 251 Ghaziabad 241 Gobindgarh 256 Ludhiana 2 244 Gobindgarh 253 Ludhiana 339 Ghaziabad 283 Raipur 1 Annual average levels Ten most polluted cities in 2007 Annual average levels Ten most polluted cities in 2006 Annual average levels Ten most polluted cities in 2005 Annual average levels Ten most polluted cities in 2004
<ul><li>Public health challenge in our cities….. </li></ul>
India’s unique public health challenge <ul><li>The Asiawide review of existing studies show that the estimated health effects are similar to those found in the extensive studies in western countries. </li></ul><ul><li>But the risk in India could be more serious. Science has yet to assess these unique risk factors: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Extremely high levels of particulates and the problem of exposure to high levels of multiple pollutants </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Impact of poverty: Poor are more susceptible. But socio economic variables are not included in health studies to influence public policy. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Understand our risk transition </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Double burden of disease. Modern or community risks increasing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>This has important implication for environmental monitoring strategies </li></ul></ul><ul><li>We need strong controls at the early stages of economic development </li></ul>
Pollution-vehicle link <ul><li>India is motorising fast. Vehicles emit noxious fumes within breathing zone </li></ul><ul><li>Vehicles can contribute an average 50 percent of the direct PM emissions but 70 per cent of PM exposure (World Bank study). </li></ul><ul><li>The WHO report of 2005 Health effects of transport-related air pollution weighed in that epidemiological evidences for the adverse health effects of exposure to transport related air pollution is increasing. </li></ul><ul><li>Some of the deadliest air toxics are related to vehicular emissions. These are carcinogens. Blamed for even killing foetus. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>If both quantum and toxicity of particulates are considered vehicles will require more aggressive interventions </li></ul></ul>
<ul><li>Energy and Climate Challenge in our cities… </li></ul>
The great guzzle ….. <ul><ul><ul><li>The guzzler : Transport sector uses up nearly 40 per cent of total consumption of oil and oil products </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Explosive vehicle numbers: Five fold increase in two decades. Fuel consumption by vehicles in 2035 could be six times that of the 2005 level. LCVs will burn up nearly the same amounts of total energy consumed by the entire transport sector today. Heavy-duty vehicles will still splurge the most. Can we afford this when nearly 85 per cent of our crude oil needs will be imported by 2030? (WEO 2007) Shift of freight from railways to trucks : Share of railways down to 26%. Transport energy demand in India would grow even faster if all highways planned are constructed. (WEO 2006) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Pressure of high commuting demand: By 2030-31 on an average Indians will travel thrice as many kilometers as they traveled during 2000-01. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Consumer interest in fuel efficiency : Monthly household expenditure budget shows that between 1993-94 and 2004-05 the share of expenses on transport has gone up from 11.3% to 17.1%. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Rolling stock of inefficient vehicles will continuously lock up huge amount of energy and carbon. </li></ul></ul></ul>
Cars threaten energy security and climate mitigation Source: Lee Schipper, University of Berkeley 2008
India is losing the advantage of small car fleet Small and medium cars will remain dominant. But…… Shift towards high end cars expected at a faster rate. SUV market is expected to develop rapidly in future
Globally transport has remained the most difficult sector for climate mitigation. India has the chance to avoid that debacle…..
In India cities both pollution and CO2 emissions (energy use) are increasing. There is strong co-relation…. Source: CAI Asia, 2008
Next generation action in our cities... Lessons from Delhi….
First generation measures in Delhi Vehicles Euro II and Euro III emissions standards Pre-mix 2T Oil One of the largest CNG programmes New PUC norms enforced 15 year old commercial vehicles phased out Bypassed transit traffic Diesel run auto rickshaw banned Scaling up bus transport, BRT and metro Industry Zoning policy for industry. Phased out polluting industry Installation of pollution control equipments in thermal power plants. New plants on natural gas Cleaner fuels for industrial boilers Other sources Hospital incineration Ban on open burning of biomass
Our first chance to leapfrog…. Euro II diesel bus emits nearly 46 times higher PM than Euro II CNG bus in India. Source: Teri
Delhi got cleaner air: it avoided pollution; got health benefits
Delhi: at risk of losing gains After a short respite the curve turns upward Source: CPCB
Indian metros today (Euro III) We need clean technology to reduce public health impacts
Threat of dieselisation <ul><li>Nationally, 30% of new car sales are on diesel. </li></ul><ul><li>Depending on the seasons, contribution of diesel fuel combustion to ambient PM2.5 can be as high as 23 per cent in Delhi, 25 per cent in Mumbai to an astounding 61 per cent in Kolkata (World Bank). </li></ul><ul><li>Diesel cars in India emit seven times more particulates and three to five times more nitrogen oxides than gasoline cars </li></ul>Cities need to leapfrog vehicles and fuel technology Red alert on diesel exhaust Agency Probable human carcinogen WHO IPCS (1996) Probable human carcinogen IARC (1989) Potential occupational carcinogen NIOSH (1988) Potential to cause cancer HEI (1995) Toxic air contaminant CARB (1998) Likely human carcinogen US EPA (2002)
We cannot afford this change … … . from public transport oriented and walkable cities to car centric cities….
It took 30 years to reach the first million mark for personal vehicles in 1971. Another 20 years to add two more million Then in 10 years (1981-91) increased by 14 million Another 10 years (1991-2001) – jumped by 28 million This decade just in four years (2001 to 2004) we have added 16 million Explosive numbers: A special challenge Source: Computed on the basis of MOSRTH motor vehicle registration data Vehicle registration in India : India’s urban population has grown 4.6 times, vehicle numbers have increased 158 times
In 5 years Delhi doubled the registration of vehicles Source: Estimated on the basis of Delhi Economic Survey, 2005-06 Daily
Cities are Paralyzed The Crawling Traffic Source: Anon 2008, Study on traffic and transportation policies and Strategies in Urban Areas in India, MOUD, p63 The average journey speed in Delhi (16 km/hr), Mumbai (16 km/hr) and Kolkata (18 km/hr): Abysmally poor compared to smaller cities
Roads hitting dead end Roads expansion cannot keep pace with rising number of vehicles in Delhi Source: On the basis of Economic Survey, Delhi Govt
Peak volume traffic has increased phenomenally Nearly 123 per cent growth on many roads (in PCU/hour) Source: Based on City Development Plan of Delhi, 2006, Eco Smart
Reality check Public transport under pressure.. Source: Anon 2008, transport demand forecast study: study and development of an integrated cum multi modal public transport network for NCT of Delhi, RITES, MVA Asia Ltd, TERI, September RITES: Modal share in Delhi
We must avoid car centric growth… <ul><li>In Delhi </li></ul><ul><li>Cars and two-wheelers carry only 20% of daily trips, but they occupy 90 per cent of road space. </li></ul><ul><li>Buses carry nearly half of the daily trips but occupy just 5% of the road space. </li></ul><ul><li>We cannot let cars marginalise the bus </li></ul><ul><li>Build cities for the urban majority </li></ul>
But understand the strength of Indian cities…..
Stunning data….. Even today 34% of daily trips are walk trips. More than 40% are public transport trips in India’s capital city Source: Anon 2008, transport demand forecast study: study and development of an integrated cum multi modal public transport network for NCT of Delhi, RITES, MVA Asia Ltd, TERI, September
Share of public transport, cycling and walking are still high in Indian cities. Even in bigger cities…..
Mobility strategy can help Indian cities to avoid future emissions A lot can be achieved if the bus transport is modernised and improved -- ADB study shows that in Bangalore an increase in public transport share from 62 per cent to 80 per cent can lead to fuel saving equal to 21 per cent of the fuel consumed in the base case. -- 23 per cent reduction in total vehicles and freed-up road space equivalent to taking off nearly 418,210 cars from roads. -- CO2 emissions can drop by 13 per cent. Among local pollutants PM can drop by 29 per cent and NOx 6 per cent.
But cities are ignoring their strength The Annual Average Growth in % in STU Bus Fleet (2000 to 2007) Source: Anon 2008, Study on traffic and transportation policies and Strategies in Urban Areas in India, MOUD Falling load factor
Delhi Bus Corridor Modernise and give buses traffic priority to allow more people to travel in speed and comfort….. …… Focus on moving people not vehicles
<ul><li>Indian cities are planning massive public transport modernisation </li></ul><ul><li>Costs and investments are a huge barrier </li></ul><ul><li>Delhi’s bus reforms has financial gap of Rs 600 - Rs 1000 crore per annum. </li></ul><ul><li>Need strategy to address this. </li></ul>Affordability challenge of public transport…
Need fiscal reforms to make public transport affordable and eliminate hidden subsidy for cars… Buses bear significantly higher tax burden than cars and two-wheelers. If not corrected and bus fares are raised, a substantial public transport ridership can be lost to two wheelers that have a running cost of a mere Re 1/km
Cities need fiscal governance for mobility management Policy mandates cities to create dedicated urban transport fund Raise funds from advertisement policy, parking revenue, additional cess on automotive fuels, additional fees on cars especially diesel cars and two-wheelers, annual renewal fee on driving license, Congestion tax etc Some cities have started to take action… Delhi: Air Ambience Fund from environment cess on diesel fuel Surat has created Dedicated urban transport fund through vehicle taxes amounting, parking charges, advertisement revenue, rent from new property development along public transit corridor Bangalore and Chennai : Green tax on older vehicles etc
Design cities for the urban majority and not the car owning minority…..
Cloverleaf flyover has disrupted at-grade continuity. Cloverleaf has completely severed neighbourhood, increased walking distances, disrupted direct shortest route. Induced more traffic…. Impact of these road and traffic engineering on fuel consumption and CO2 emissions are not calculated…. Flyovers, expressways and seamless traffic are severing the cityscape, increasing driving distances and increasing emissions Before After
Urban planning does not keep people in focus Inequity in the provision of facilities… But in poor neighbourhoods ( Govindpuri ) where we have counted 100 persons per 5 minutes pavements are nearly non existent. People walk with traffic. In rich localities ( Aurangzeb Road ) where we could count barely 3 persons per 10 minutes has good walking facilities
Ill-designed pavements make them unusable Unusable infrastructure: Wasteful Unacceptably high pavements without proper gradients force people to walk on the road compromising safety….
As walk space shrinks and roads are barricaded to create seamless and signal free traffic the shortest direct route for pedestrians is disrupted. People are forced to jay walk Making roads unsafe for people…. Sai Chowk, Patparganj Scindia House, CP
Cars taking over the urban commons and legitimate space of walkers Cars taking over …..
Reallocate road space to all road users… Delhi’s first dedicated pedestrian walkway in BRT corridor …. <ul><li>Well designed and well surfaced. - Minimum width 1.5 metre -- goes upto 3.5 meter to 4 meters - Sidewalks easily negotiable by women, children and senior citizens. Clean and continuous. - At-grade-crosswalk facilities with zebra crossings and pelican signals. Comfortable for old, disabled and visually impaired. - Intersections are well designed and paved with speed tables as traffic calming - Crossings are easily accessible with kerbed ramps. - Disable friendly features have been introduced for the first time We need walkable cities to make public transport successful. Every public transport trip begins and ends with a walking trip…… </li></ul>
Rebuilding and redesigning of pedestrian path has begun in some parts of the city….. We need to rebuild our public spaces to make cities more livable.. Janpath: congenial pedestrian ambience R K Marg: Walkable
Source: Pradeep Sachdeva It is possible to make a difference Redesigned streets in a small town of Nanded in Maharashtra Before After
Reinvent the idea of mobility <ul><li>Can we leapfrog into cities without pollution and congestion? </li></ul><ul><li>Follow an alternative model to mobility based on personal cars. Cities cannot afford massive subsidy for the personal transport of the rich and urban minority in our cities at cost of mobility for all. </li></ul><ul><li>Can we invent a different idea of ‘mobility’? </li></ul><ul><li>We cannot afford to pollute and clean up. Too expensive. </li></ul><ul><li>Cannot afford to take small (incremental steps) that get swamped by the speed of change… </li></ul><ul><li>Need big solutions. Need changes in the way we think about growth, design of our cities and mobility. </li></ul><ul><li>Recently conditional reforms in the transportation sector have been mandated to cities. This is an opportunity –tax measures, use of parking policy for car restraint etc </li></ul><ul><li>We need inventive solutions to leapfrog. </li></ul>