Ellen Mecray, NOAA's Regional Director of the Eastern Region, gave a presentation on climate change at the Middlesex Conservation Districts' Fiscal Year 2023 Annual Meeting.

1. National Centers for
Environmental Information (NCEI)
NOAA Climate Science and
Services:
Climate Trends in the
Northeast
December 4, 2023
Ellen Mecray, NOAA Regional Climate Services Director-
Eastern Region

2. National Centers for
Environmental Information (NCEI)
NOAA’s Mission
To understand and predict changes in climate, weather, oceans, and coasts; to share that knowledge
and information with others; and to conserve and manage coastal and marine ecosystems and
resources.
NMFS
NOS
OAR
NWS
NESDIS
OMAO

3. 3
National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
NOAA’s Authoritative Products and Services
NOAA’s Mission: To understand and predict changes in climate, weather, oceans, and coasts; to share that knowledge and
information with others; and to conserve and manage coastal and marine ecosystems and resources.

4. 4
National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
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Warning
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Managers
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Mitigation
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for
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Information
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for decision-making
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Impact
Index
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Spots
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Days
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Disasters,
Climate
Extremes Index
Insurance
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Tracks
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Planners
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Normals
Construction,
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Global & U.S.
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Summaries
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Sectors
Annual State of
the Climate
Reports
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Makers
IPCC & National
Climate
Assessments
Gov’t
Policymakers
Making Data Useful

5. 5
National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
NCEI National Climate Services Partnership
National Scope
- 6 Regional Climate Service Directors
- Voice of NOAA Climate in each region
- NOAA and cross-Agency engagement and coordination
Implemented Regionally
- 6 Regional Climate Centers (RCC)
- Regional themes
- Regional partners in NOAA and
with other Federal and tribal
partners
- Inter-state coordination
and at the
State level
- State climatologists
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/regional

6. 6
National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
Climate Impacts and Land Management

7. 7
National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
Climate Impacts and Land Management
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/

8. 8
National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
Disaster Trends and Why Our Work Matters
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/
• Western wildfires, severe storms, inland flooding and
hurricane costs all on the rise
1
• 5-year annual cost average = $124.1 billion;
disaster costs over the last 6.5 years (2017-2023) =
$1.061 trillion
U.S. Billion-dollar event frequency (1980–2023), annual cost, 5-year cost avg

9. 9
National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
Climate Extremes on the Rise in the U.S.
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/cei/graph
1.monthly maximum and minimum temperature
2.daily precipitation
3.monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)
4.landfalling tropical storm and hurricane wind
velocity

10. 10
National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
Tracking Climate with Indicators
NCA5, 2023.
Chapter 2: Climate
Trends, Figure 3.

11. 11
National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
Temperature Extremes (compared to normals)

12. 12
National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
Precipitation Extremes (area of NE)

13. 13
National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
Temperature Trends
Massachusetts
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/

14. 14
National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
Precipitation Trends
Massachusetts
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/

15. 15
National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
http://climatesmartfarming.org/tools/csf-county-climate-change/

16. 16
National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

17. 17
National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
https://crt-climate-explorer.nemac.org/

18. 18
National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
https://crt-climate-explorer.nemac.org/

19. 19
National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
But how good are the projections?
Model spread is the 95%
envelope of global mean surface
temperature anomalies from all
individual CMIP3 simulations
(using the SRES A1B projection
post-2000). Observations are the
standard quasi-global estimates
of anomalies with no adjustment
for spatial coverage or the use of
SST instead of SAT over the
open ocean. Last updated: 16
Jan 2023.
Source: Schmidt, Gavin- RealClimate.org

20. 20
National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
NCEI - Authoritative Climate Products & Services
B$D County Hazard
Mapping
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/
access/billions/
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/
monitoring/cei/
US Extremes Index
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/
monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/
Climate at a Glance

21. 21
National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
US 5th National Climate Assessment

22. 22
National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
NCA5 Key Message on Risk

23. 23
National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
NCA5 on Flooding 2020 v. 2050

24. 24
National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
NCA5, Future Warming and the Human Choice

25. 25
National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
Questions?
Ellen L. Mecray
NOAA National Centers for Environmental
Information
Regional Climate Services Director- Eastern
Region
Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/regional/regional-
climate-services-directors/eastern
December 4, 2023
Middlesex County Conservation District (MA)
Virtual