The document summarizes the findings and recommendations of a consultancy on climate change screening and appraisal in Thailand's Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives (MOAC). The consultancy assessed how climate change is integrated into MOAC's policy, planning, budgeting and investment processes. It found weaknesses in policy alignment and coordination, and a lack of systematic climate change integration into planning, budgeting and cost-benefit analysis of projects. It provides recommendations to address these issues through improving climate change knowledge, requiring climate change reviews and plans, and strengthening climate change considerations in systems and processes.

1. Climate Change Screening and Programme
Appraisal in MOAC
Areeya Obidiegwu and Ray Purcell

2. Presentation Purpose
• to present findings and recommendations of
the recent Climate Change Screening and
Programme Appraisal Consultancy for
information, discussion and feedback

3. Assignment Objective
• to support the design of future programme
activities and the development of the
Strategic Climate Change Action Plan for
Agriculture 2017-2021
• by assessing the effectiveness of institutional
processes for Climate Change Adaptation
planning and budgeting and recommending
suitable climate change economic valuation
and investment appraisal methods

4. Assignment Approach
The consultants' research and assessment worked
with:
• A review of a wide range of national and
sector/Ministry development and climate change
policy, strategy and budgeting documentation
• Consultations with the Office of Agricultural
Economics (OAE), and with the Departments of
Agriculture, Agricultural Extension, Fisheries,
Livestock, Rice, and Royal Irrigation.

5. Climate Change Context
• Thailand is consistently ranked amongst the
top 20 countries most vulnerable to climate
change (11th in Germanwatch 1994-2013
Climate Risk Index)
• Studies in Southeast Asia suggest that the
growth in agricultural GDP could be up to 5%
lower by 2050 as a result of climate change
(Thailand Country Brief, UNDP, 2014)
• Aggregate effects on all sectors could reduce
overall GDP growth by similar levels by 2050

6. Tasks
Task 1: Review and advise on the integration of CC
into Policy, Planning and Budget Processes:
(a) CC policy and strategy alignment and consistency at
national and sectoral levels
(b) planning and budgeting processes and entry points
for CC
Task 2: Review and advise on CC screening and
appraisal methods used in MOAC Benefit
Analysis for CC investment analysis with a focus
on CBA and prioritisation

7. Task 1a: CC Policy Alignment
Ag Sector CC policy and strategy context:
• National 20 Year Plan 2017-2036 (draft)
• 11th NESDP
• 2012-2016 CC Master Plan
• National Policy on Green Growth 2013-2030
• Government Action Plans
• Agricultural Development Plans 2012-2016 and 2017-
2021
• Agricultural Strategic Plan for Climate Change 2013-
2016
• Agricultural Strategic Plan for Climate Change 2017-
2021

8. Task 1a: CC Policy Alignment
Overarching National Priorities
The National 20 Year Plan 2017-2036 (draft)
• CC is a risk to the sustainability of Thailand’s
economic development
• Strategy 5 for environmentally friendly growth
emphasises:
(a) enhancing adaptive capacity to respond to CC
(b) transforming economic activity to low carbon
growth

9. Task 1a: Policy Alignment
NESDP – Implementing Priorities
CC references run strongly through NESDP
A core theme is to strengthen CC resilience
And for agriculture NESDP suggests:
• practices that preserve biodiversity and are suitable
for the climate
• CC R&D and crop, livestock and fish varietal breeding
responsive to CC
• Adapt the role of Learning Centres in CC context
• Improved water management to alleviate drought and
prevent floods
• Expansion of the irrigation system by 200,000 rai per
year

10. Task 1a: Policy Alignment
National Climate Change Policy
The National Climate Change Master Plan (CCMP) 2013-2015 :
• agricultural disaster monitoring for agricultural communities
• insurance systems for crop, livestock and fishery products
• prediction of CC impacts on agricultural production
• research and genetic engineering knowledge including a
genetic bank for improving plant and animal species resistant
to CC
• research on integrating agriculture and water management
• expanding irrigation infrastructure
• encouraging farmers to use sustainable agriculture practices
such as organic agriculture, Integrated Agriculture,
environmentally friendly production of livestock and fishery,
supporting the Good Agricultural Practice (GAP) etc.

11. Task 1a: Policy Alignment
Agricultural Development Plan 2017-2021
ADP 2012-2016 has little on CC
ADP 2017-21 reports:
• the impacts of CC on agricultural productivity
• farmers not yet ready to respond
• adaptive capacity, R&D and knowledge transfer
important
But ADP does not reflect:
• actual progress made on mitigation and adaptation
• and central problem of identifying CC resilient
technologies and practices adoptable for farmers

12. Task 1a: Policy Alignment
Agriculture CC Strategic Plan 2013-2016
Plan 2013-2016 proposed preparing readiness for
CC and building resilience by:
• Establishing and maintaining information
infrastructure and early warning system
• Facilitating the development and rehabilitation
of basic infrastructure for agriculture and
conservation of agricultural resource and
environment
• Promoting climate change impact prevention
and reduction and readiness for adaptation

13. Task 1a: Policy Alignment
Agriculture CC Strategic Plan 2013-2016
Based on a recent review, less than 1% of total MOAC budget
was spent on climate specific projects during the Plan period
• The Plan has had little influence on departmental operations
• No departments have an explicit CC policy or plan
• None consider CC in their routine planning and budgeting
processes
However:
• Agriculture, Rice and RID have all been active for many years
in dealing with the impact of climate, but not of climate
change
• Now they are moving informally into dealing with CC though
based on historical rather than future CC projections and
using different climate scenarios

14. Task 1a: Policy Alignment
Draft Agriculture CC Strategic Plan 2017-2021
• 4 Strategies and 11 sub-strategies
• 30 programmes under 2 adaptation strategies
• Programmes mainly for “soft” investments
whose benefits are difficult to measure
• “Hard” investments for irrigation and water
management, but no mention of “climate
proofing” infrastructure
• Activities rather similar to previous plan

15. Task 1b: CC Planning and Budget Integration
The Project Cycle
• All departments base programme and project
identification on government policies
• Several departments complement this with
bottom-up problem analysis involving farmers
• RID has highly developed system for project
identification, formulation and feasibility based
on 25 5-Year Basin Master Plans
• In theory, every department should carry out CBA
on any new programme proposed for the budget
• But in practice CBA is limited mainly to RID
projects

16. Task 1b: CC Planning and Budget Integration
CC Planning
• Lack of comprehensive information and knowledge in MOAC
on long term CC trends
• As a result, practitioners are held back from developing
adaptation technologies
• Agriculture Department and RID consider climate scenarios
but based on historical evidence, not on future projections
• Some departments do not consider their sectors to be climate
change sensitive
• And “there is no time or money for CC research”
• ONEP is building a climate change data base with historical
data and projections. This will prepare climate risk analyses
for sectors and subsectors but its outputs are not yet available
Institutional: Most departments have CC Committees but they
are mostly inactive, except for the Agricultural Dept which
reports monthly on GHG emissions

17. Task 1b: CC Planning and Budget Integration
CC Budget Process
• October-November: Departments prepare initial budget proposals as
basis for the MOAC Budget Framework proposal
• End November: MOAC submits its Budget Framework and initial proposals
to BOB
• February: BOB issues Annual Budget Guidelines including pre-ceilings at
a budget preparation seminar
• End February: MOAC revises its budget estimates and submits to BOB
• March: BOB reviews and revises the ministry budget submissions
• April: Revised ministry budget estimates submitted to Cabinet
• End April: Budget estimates returned to ministries for revision
• May: BOB reviews and finalises budget estimates
• June – September: Budget estimates scrutinised by Parliament, final
revisions approved and Budget published by BOB

18. Task 1b: CC Planning and Budget Integration
CC Budget Integration Entry Points
• Vital to build CC into the Budget Framework at the start of
the budget process
• Currently, initial department budget proposals are
unconstrained “wish lists” – this is inefficient
• At the moment there is no explicit consideration of CC in
the budget process
• Budgets need to be based on departmental CC policy and
plan
• And on CC screening of departmental programme and
project portfolios
• A critical point is the BOB budget preparation seminar in
March and its guidelines where ceilings are issued
• The latest BOB guidelines include references to both CC
mitigation and adaptation

19. Task 1b: CC Planning and Budget Integration
Current Budget Allocations
• Of MOAC’s 2016-2017 budget of Baht 92.5 million, half is
managed by RID
• The main part is spent on irrigation construction and
maintenance
• A key technical/economic issue for infrastructure is climate
proofing
• Climate proofing protects infrastructure against long term
climate change damage
• It requires adjustments to planning, technical designs and
construction and it costs more
• But prevents more costly rehabilitation and emergency repairs
later
• Some climate proofing is happening but not on the basis of
systemic and documented policy and guidelines

20. Tasks 1a and 1b:
CC Planning and Budget Integration Status
Policies Status
Alignment of CC policy in the
agricultural sector with NESDP, the
national CC Master Plan
NESDP, the CC Master Plan and the
ADP are quite closely aligned but the
effectiveness of sectoral CC planning has
been weak due to lack of detail. CC has
not yet been internalised into routine
planning processes.
Alignment and Effectiveness of Sector
Strategic Development Plan and the
Sector CC Strategic Plan
There are weaknesses in both sector
policy documents. Departments are not
required to prepare a CC review, policy
or Plan. Neither ADP nor the CC
Strategic Plan describe what progress has
been made with CC research, technology
development, dissemination, and
adoption at the farm level. And there are
disconnects between policy,
implementation and internalisation.
Integration of CC into the National
Budget
So far there has been no systematic
integration of CC into the budgeting
process with the exception of irrigation
expansion..

21. Climate Change System Integration Principles
• Integrate CC, don’t separate
• Think long-term
• Use existing systems and processes
• Strategise and work from in-depth CC knowledge;
mindset and skills development as important as
systems change
• Integrate the Ag Sector CC Strategic Plan into regular
budget processes
• Incentives and disincentives are important - alert BOB
to climate proofing disincentives for infrastructure
• Use a multi-level multi-pronged approach
• CC knowledge building and sharing more important
than ticking boxes

22. MOAC Climate Change Integration
Recommendations: Knowledge Development
• Build a MOAC CC knowledge base including CC projections
downscaled to agro-ecological zone or basin level to underpin long-
term development planning. Use this as the platform for identifying
effective CC adaptation solutions. Build a knowledge base
comprising bio-physical, engineering and social science studies on
climate change impacts and implications. Action: CC TWG.
• Integrate state-of-the-science CC knowledge into line departments
and routine planning processes. Action: OAE and Line Departments.
• Use the CC TWG as a facilitator for Departments to strengthen (a)
more in-depth CC scientific knowledge; (b) the understanding of
long term CC impacts, implications, risks and vulnerabilities, and (c)
to be a catalyser of creative CC adaptation solutions. Action: Senior
management.
• Engage with the ONEP CC data base, when available, which should
be an open access knowledge sharing tool, accessed by government
officials, researchers, academics, media and civil society. Action:
ONEP/MOAC Departments.

23. MOAC Climate Change Recommendations
Systems and Processes
• Require all departments to carry out a CC review and to
prepare a CC plan which reviews climate trends likely to
impact on the subsector, the technical and economic
implications of those impacts, and the measures proposed to
address those implications. Action: all Departments.
• Incorporate CC screening and the Sector CC Strategic Plan
proposals into the routine annual budget planning and review
exercises for the national recurrent and capital budgets.
Action: Senior management, OAE, CC TWG.
• Strengthen the incorporation of CC in the annual MOAC
Budget Framework and budget submissions through pre-
budget climate change planning sessions for mitigation,
adaptation and proofing. Action: Depts supported by TWG.

24. MOAC Climate Change Recommendations
Systems and Processes cont.
• Ensure that water sector infrastructure projects are
properly climate proofed taking account of the latest
Thailand climate change projections. Action: RID, OAE.
• The MOAC Executive Committee together with CC TWG
check that climate change has received due
consideration in line Department budget proposals.
Action: MOAC Senior Management and CC TWG.
• In the medium term, engage with the preparation of the
next round of NESDP and sector ADP to consolidate CC
more closely into the narrative for the agricultural sector.
Action: Senior management and OAE.
• Consolidate the role of the ADP as the comprehensive
framework for all funding to the sector, including for CC.
Action: Senior management and OAE.

25. MOAC Climate Change Recommendations
Climate Change Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA)
• Use rapid CC CBA for MOAC projects especially irrigation
projects to supplement the CBA work already carried out.
At the moment, CBA is carried out by RID but not CC CBA
(with and without investment, with and without climate
change). Wider and fuller benefit assessment s for water
supply and irrigation and other projects should also be
taken into account. Action: OAE, RID.
• Utilise CC CBA results in budget negotiation with BOB.
Action: MOAC Senior Management.
• Ensure continuity of staff working on CBA. Action: OAE and
Departments.
• Provide an anchor for MOAC's CBA activities in OAE and key
technical departments especially RID to provide skill back-
stopping for CBA in other line departments. Action: OAE.