Thailand UNDP-GIZ workshop on CBA - Effective water management and sustainabl...
Climate Change Screening and Programme Appraisal 23 November - Building Institutional Capacity in Thailand to Design and Implement Climate Programs
1. Climate Change Screening and
Programme Appraisal in MOAC
1
Supporting developing countries to integrate the
agricultural sectors into National Adaptation Plans (NAPs)
23 November 2016
2. Presentation Purpose
• to present findings and recommendations of
the recent Climate Change Screening and
Programme Appraisal Consultancy for
information, discussion and feedback
2
3. Assignment Objective
• to support the design of future programme
activities and the development of the
Strategic Climate Change Action Plan for
Agriculture 2017-2021
• by assessing the effectiveness of institutional
processes for CCA planning and budgeting and
recommending suitable climate change
economic valuation and investment appraisal
methods
3
4. Assignment Approach
The consultants' research and assessment worked
with:
• A review of a wide range of national and
sector/Ministry development and climate change
policy, strategy and budgeting documentation
• Consultations with the Office of Agricultural
Economics (OAE), and with the Departments of
Agriculture, Agricultural Extension, Fisheries,
Livestock, Rice, and Royal Irrigation.
4
5. Climate Change Context
• Thailand is consistently ranked amongst the
top 20 countries most vulnerable to climate
change (11th in Germanwatch 1994-2013
Climate Risk Index)
• Studies in Southeast Asia suggest that the
growth in agricultural GDP could be up to 5%
lower by 2050 as a result of climate change
(Thailand Country Brief, UNDP, 2014)
• Aggregate effects on all sectors could reduce
overall GDP growth by similar levels by 2050
5
6. Tasks
Task 1: Review and advise on the integration of CC
into Policy, Planning and Budget Processes:
(a) CC policy and strategy alignment and consistency at
national and sectoral levels
(b) planning and budgeting processes and entry points
for CC
Task 2: Review and advise on CC screening and
appraisal methods used in MOAC Benefit
Analysis for CC investment analysis with a focus
on CBA and prioritisation
6
7. Task 1a: CC Policy Alignment
Ag Sector CC policy and strategy context:
• National 20 Year Plan 2017-2036 (draft)
• 11th NESDP
• 2012-2016 CC Master Plan
• National Policy on Green Growth 2013-2030
• Agricultural Development Plans 2012-2016
and 2017-2021
• Agricultural Strategic Plan for Climate Change
2013-2016
7
8. Task 1a: CC Policy Alignment
Overarching National Priorities
The National 20 Year Plan 2017-2036 (draft)
• CC is a risk to the sustainability of Thailand’s
economic development
• Strategy 5 for environmentally friendly growth
emphasises:
(a) enhancing adaptive capacity to respond to CC
(b) transforming economic activity to low carbon
growth
8
9. Task 1a: Policy Alignment
NESDP – Implementing Priorities
CC references run strongly through NESDP
A core theme is to strengthen CC resilience
And for agriculture NESDP suggests:
• practices that preserve biodiversity and are suitable
for the climate
• CC R&D and crop, livestock and fish varietal breeding
responsive to CC
• Adapt the role of Learning Centres in CC context
• Improved water management to alleviate drought and
prevent floods
• Expansion of the irrigation system by 200,000 rai per
year
9
10. Task 1a: Policy Alignment
National Climate Change Policy
The National Climate Change Master Plan (CCMP) 2013-2015 :
• agricultural disaster monitoring for agricultural communities
• insurance systems for crop, livestock and fishery products
• prediction of CC impacts on agricultural production
• research and genetic engineering knowledge including a
genetic bank for improving plant and animal species resistant
to CC
• research on integrating agriculture and water management
• expanding irrigation infrastructure
• encouraging farmers to use sustainable agriculture practices
such as organic agriculture, Integrated Agriculture,
environmentally friendly production of livestock and fishery,
supporting the Good Agricultural Practice (GAP) etc. 10
11. Task 1a: Policy Alignment
Agricultural Development Plan 2017-2021
ADP 2012-2016 has little on CC
ADP 2017-21 reports:
• the impacts of CC on agricultural productivity
• farmers not yet ready to respond
• adaptive capacity, R&D and knowledge transfer
important
But ADP does not reflect:
• actual progress made on mitigation and adaptation
• and central problem of identifying CC resilient
technologies and practices adoptable for farmers
11
12. Task 1a: Policy Alignment
Agriculture CC Strategic Plan 2013-2016
Plan 2013-2016 proposed preparing readiness for
CC and building resilience by:
• Establishing and maintaining information
infrastructure and early warning system
• Facilitating the development and rehabilitation
of basic infrastructure for agriculture and
conservation of agricultural resource and
environment
• Promoting climate change impact prevention
and reduction and readiness for adaptation
12
13. Task 1a: Policy Alignment
Agriculture CC Strategic Plan 2013-2016
Based on a recent review, less than 1% of total MOAC budget
was spent on climate specific projects during the Plan period
• The Plan has had little influence on departmental operations
• No departments have an explicit CC policy or plan
• None consider CC in their routine planning and budgeting
processes
However:
• Agriculture, Rice and RID have all been active for many years
in dealing with the impact of climate, but not of climate
change
• Now they are moving informally into dealing with CC though
based on historical rather than future CC projections and
using different climate scenarios
13
14. Task 1a: Policy Alignment
Draft Agriculture CC Strategic Plan 2017-2021
• 4 Strategies and 11 sub-strategies
• 27 programmes under 2 adaptation strategies
• Programmes mainly for “soft” investments whose
benefits are difficult to measure
• “Hard” investments for irrigation and water
management, but no mention of “climate
proofing” infrastructure
• Activities rather similar to previous plan
• Example of policy in place on paper but not yet
converted into meaningful action in practice
14
15. Task 1b: CC Planning and Budget Integration
The Project Cycle
• All departments base programme and project
identification on government policies
• Several departments complement this with
bottom-up problem analysis involving farmers
• RID has highly developed system for project
identification, formulation and feasibility based
on 25 5-Year Basin Master Plans
• In theory, every department should carry out CBA
on any new programme proposed for the budget
• But in practice CBA is limited mainly to RID
projects
15
16. Task 1b: CC Planning and Budget Integration
CC Planning
• Lack of comprehensive information and knowledge in MOAC
on long term CC trends
• As a result, practitioners are held back from developing
adaptation technologies
• Agriculture Department and RID consider climate scenarios
but based on historical evidence, not on future projections
• Some departments do not consider their sectors to be climate
change sensitive
• And “there is no time or money for CC research”
• ONEP is building a climate change data base with historical
data and projections. This will prepare climate risk analyses
for sectors and subsectors but its outputs are not yet available
Institutional: Most departments have CC Committees but they
are mostly inactive, except for the Agricultural Dept which
reports monthly on GHG emissions
16
17. Task 1b: CC Planning and Budget Integration
CC Budget Process
• October-November: Departments prepare initial budget proposals as
basis for the MOAC Budget Framework proposal
• End November: MOAC submits its Budget Framework and initial proposals
to BOB
• February: BOB issues Annual Budget Guidelines including pre-ceilings at
a budget preparation seminar
• End February: MOAC revises its budget estimates and submits to BOB
• March: BOB reviews and revises the ministry budget submissions
• April: Revised ministry budget estimates submitted to Cabinet
• End April: Budget estimates returned to ministries for revision
• May: BOB reviews and finalises budget estimates
• June – September: Budget estimates scrutinised by Parliament, final
revisions approved and Budget published by BOB
17
18. Task 1b: CC Planning and Budget Integration
CC Budget Integration Entry Points
• Vital to build CC into the Budget Framework at the start of
the budget process
• Currently, initial department budget proposals are
unconstrained “wish lists” – this is inefficient
• At the moment there is no explicit consideration of CC in
the budget process
• Budgets need to be based on departmental CC policy and
plan
• And on CC screening of departmental programme and
project portfolios
• A critical point is the BOB budget preparation seminar in
March and its guidelines where ceilings are issued
• The latest BOB guidelines include references to both CC
mitigation and adaptation
18
19. Task 1b: CC Planning and Budget Integration
Current Budget Allocations
• Of MOAC’s 2016-2017 budget of Baht 92.5 million, half is
managed by RID
• The main part is spent on irrigation construction and
maintenance
• A key technical/economic issue for infrastructure is climate
proofing
• Climate proofing protects infrastructure against long term
climate change damage
• It requires adjustments to planning, technical designs and
construction and it costs more
• But prevents more costly rehabilitation and emergency repairs
later
• Some climate proofing is happening but not on the basis of
systemic and documented policy and guidelines 19
20. Tasks 1a and 1b:
CC Planning and Budget Integration Status
Policies Status
Alignment of CC policy in the
agricultural sector with NESDP, the
national CC Master Plan
NESDP, the CC Master Plan and the
ADP are quite closely aligned but the
effectiveness of sectoral CC planning has
been weak due to lack of detail. CC has
not yet been internalised into routine
planning processes.
Alignment and Effectiveness of Sector
Strategic Development Plan and the
Sector CC Strategic Plan
There are weaknesses in both sector
policy documents. Departments are not
required to prepare a CC review, policy
or Plan. Neither ADP nor the CC
Strategic Plan describe what progress has
been made with CC research, technology
development, dissemination, and
adoption at the farm level. And there are
disconnects between policy,
implementation and internalisation.
Integration of CC into the National
Budget
So far there has been no systematic
integration of CC into the budgeting
process with the exception of irrigation
expansion..
20