Presentation by Jos van Alphen, Delta Program Commissioner & Meinte Blaas, Rijkswaterstaat, Netherlands, at the Symposium Knowledge and Innovation for Decision Making, during Delft Software Days - Edition 2017. Friday, 27 October 2017, Delft.

1. the Delta Programme
experiences with models and tools
Jos van Alphen
Staff Delta Programme Commissioner
Meinte Blaas
Deltaprogramme Fresh Water Supply
27 October 2017

2. Future challenges of delta regions
Sealevel rise
(20 cm-->
100 cm/100y)‫‏‬
More /extreme
storms?
More/intense
rainfall
Spatial
developments
Increased
erosion
Subsidence
10 cm/100yr
More summer
drought
Salt
intrusion
Decreased
river
discharge
- 60%
Increased
river
discharge
+ 10%
27 October 2017

3. 1 The Delta Programme
27 October 2017
One Aim:
• keeping NL a good, safe and attractive place to live and work for
present and future generations ( long term perspective)
Three tracks
• Safe, now and in the future
• Fresh water supply guaranteed, also in dry periods
• Climate proof urban areas
Not in answer to a disaster, but in advance, to be prepared or avoid it
 Plan for an uncertain future
 Risk based, water-system approach

4. Uncertain future?  Delta scenario’s
∆
(KNMI,
2006)
2050 2100
Temp. 1 – 2 2 - 4
SLR (cm) 15 - 35 35 - 85
Q rijn, 1/100 8 -15 % 15 - 40 %
Pw, av 4 -14 % 7 – 28 %
Ps, av -19 – +3% -38 - +6 %
27 October 2017

5. 27 October 2017
Delta program
• 3 national programmes:
•Safety: standards,Deltadikes
•Freshwater
•Climate proof urban areas
• 6 regional programmes
and 5 key decisions, 2014

6. Regional,
system based
strategies
27 October 2017
• Coast: Sand nourishment – spatial
development
• Wadden: uncertain future 
monitoring
• SW Delta: Peak storage,
multifunctional flood defences, self
reliance fresh water
• RD: FRM strategies (dikes, spatial
planning), improved emergency fresh
water supply
• Rivers: Tailormade FRM strategies
(dikes, RftR, physical planning,
disaster mngt), discharge distribution
Rhine branches
• IJM: Increase discharge capacity
(pumps) Maintain flexible lake level,
reduce fresh water demand

7. Regional plans
legislation
Project decisions
Implementation
Preparation of the Delta Program policies /strategies
27 October 2017
2012 2013 2014 2015
prefered
strategies
+ Delta decisions
promising
strategies
2011
possible
strategies
Parliament
2010
Probleem
analysis
National
Water
Plan
Commitment
Funding
Objectives
Side effects
Cost effective
Technical
feasible
Data, models, basic principles, evaluation criteria, knowledge

8. 27 October 2017
Strategies,
measures
scenarios
deltamodel
output
effect modules
experts
policy indicators *)
result
portal
•Flood risk
•Fresh water
•Costs
•Side effects
•Feasibility

9. 2 Tools to support decision making
(and day-to-day management)
• Uniformity in data, basic
principles and model software
• Accepted by stakeholders
• Explicit and transparent
• Reproducable
 Comprehensive set of models
27 October 2017

10. Contribution Delta-model
Basic computations:
• Fresh water and FRM “challenges” for different scenario’s (2015, 2050, 2100)
• Reference strategies (= continue present policy)
Strategy development computations:
• Fresh water supply: different measures, interaction main-regional watersystems -
water users
• FRM: “hydraulic loads” (discharge distribution, lake level, peak storage) 
required dike improvement and costs
• FRM, regional strategies:
– dike improvement vs Room for the River measures,
– Improvement storm surge barriers
– Interaction sea/lake level – river discharge in transitional areas
27 October 2017

11. 11 4 april 2013
Flood levels
2050 & 2100
27 October 2017

12. Fresh water supply
Salinity
Strategy:
• regional balance demand and
supply (infrastructure & crops)
• optimize use of available water
(Smart Water Management)
27 October 2017

13. Challenges
• Development of comprehensive tools requires several years, starts
when users are not yet familiar with purpose and requirements
 risk that tools don’t meet expectations.
• Connections between submodels (in space, format and information
/reference/basic assumptions)
• Statistic sound values of extremes require long time series (eg. 100 yrs)
 several weeks computation time.
 escape “towards rules of thumb”
• Detailed regional analyses requires too much computational efforts to
aggregate on national level (and is not always necessary)
27 October 2017

14. Dutch Water management:
a jigsaw puzzle…
27 October 2017

15. Smart Water Management
27 October 2017
Optimise water management
• Energy / CO2
• Max societal benefit when
scarce
• Drought, salt intrusion
• Minimal societal costs when
too much
• Pluvial flooding

16. Smart Water Management: by what means?
27 October 2017
• No major physical measures
• ICT tools and refined coordination for every-day
water management
• Serious games
• Dashboards
• Probabilisitc model analysis
• Data-driven forecasting
models

17. Serious Games
27 October 2017

18. Dashboards
27 October 2017
FEWS FEWS FEWS FEWS
Informatiescherm
ARK/NZK
Internet
LMW
DD API DD API DD API DD API DD API
D i g i t a l D e l t a I n t e r f a c e S p e c i f i c a t i o n

19. Probabilistic model analysis
27 October 2017
Vermeulen e.a. 2017

20. 27 October 2017
Probabilistic model analysis
NAP
-0.2 m
NAP
-0.1 m
NAP
+0.0 m
2017 5 25 72
2050 2-3 9-14 24-39
2085 2-3 5-9 10-20
Return period for climate scenarios

21. Data-driven modelling
27 October 2017
Datachallenge (June 2017): demo
predictive model based on machine
learning (waterboard HDSR).
Work in progress: pilots for 2 regions with
improved methods and multiple state variables
• From Near Real-Time to Real-Time forecasting
• Overarching: mining live data of various authorities
• Open up tacit knowledge residing within individual
authorities for collaborative water management &
decision taking

22. Outlook
• Further integration: beyond regional optimisation
• Decision support: integration of operational
forecasts at national level
• Extension to new data sources: pecipitation radar,
earth observation (e.g. soil moisture), IoT
devices/sensor networks
Even Smarter WaterManagement requires:
• Further harmonisation and standarisation of
observational and model data
• But also consensus on optimisation criteria
water levels  energy criteria 
socio-economic costs & benefits
27 October 2017

23. 27 October 2017
www.deltacommissaris.nl
www.slimwatermanagement.nl https://waterenklimaat.nl/
Thank you