1. Nathanael Melia | Ed Hawkins | Keith Haines
GC11G-1099
Trans-Arctic shipping routes proliferate
References
1. Melia N, Haines K, & Hawkins E. Improved Arctic sea ice thickness projections using bias-corrected CMIP5
simulations, Cryosphere, 9, 2237-2251, doi: 10.5194/tc-9-2237-2015, 2015.
2. Transport Canada. Arctic Ice Regime Shipping System (AIRSS). 1998.
3. Tan X, Su B, Riska K, & Moan T. A six-degrees-of-freedom numerical model for level ice–ship interaction. Cold
Reg. Sci. Technol., 92, 1-16, doi: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2013.03.006, 2013.
Contact information
• Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, RG6 6AH, UK.
• Email: n.melia@pgr.reading.ac.uk
• Web: www.met.reading.ac.uk/~sq011930/home/
• --
Summary
The observed reduction in Arctic sea ice opens up the potential
for shorter shipping routes across the Arctic Ocean leading to
potentially significant global economic savings. We
demonstrate, using bias corrected1 global climate models
(GCMs), that the projected continuance of sea ice melt through
the 21st century increases opportunities for ships to sail
through the Arctic, to the USA and Europe, from East Asian
ports. Transit potential for Open Water vessels (OW) doubles
from early to mid-century and coincides with the opening of
the trans-polar sea route. Although seasonal, routes become
more reliable with an increased shipping season length.
Climate models
• A subset of five bias corrected1 GCMs from CMIP5 (HadGEM2-ES, CCSM4,
CESM-CAM5, MIROC5, MPI-ESM-LR).
• Two future emission scenarios are assessed, RCP4.5 (medium) and RCP8.5
(high).
• Three ensemble members from each GCM are used, 15 total.
• For each period, 15 Septembers in the 15 member ensemble are tested,
hence 225 attempted transits to each destination in each panel (Fig. 1a-f).
Ship-route algorithm
• The algorithm finds the fastest possible route when ice conditions permit.
• The Canadian ice regime system2 is used for vessel ice limitations. OW can
transit through sea ice thickness (SIT) of up to 0.15 m, Polar Class 6 vessels
(PC6) up to 1.2 m.
• A speed – SIT relationship3 is incorporated; vessels can travel through ice but
at a reduced speed; longer ice-free routes may be faster.
Season length and variability
Through the 21st century routes become more reliably open and
the shipping season length increases. Inter-annual variability is
evident throughout.
Improved Projections of
21st Century Trans-Arctic Shipping
Figure 1. Fastest available September transits to the USA and Europe
from East Asia. Cyan lines represent Open Water vessels (OW) and pink
lines represent Polar Class 6 vessels (PC6), line weight indicates the
number of simulated vessels using the same route. The percentages
shown in Greenland represent the success rate of trans-Arctic voyages for
each vessel class respectively. The bean plots labelled USA and EUR
represent the distribution of the successful transit times to these
destinations relative to their theoretical fastest possible route.
Figure 2. Season length and variability for Open Water vessels in
RCP8.5. The three major rows represent different routes: Northern Sea
Route (NSR), North West Passage (NWP) & Trans-polar Sea Route (TSR).
Sub-rows – month; colours – number of ensemble members open.