Transport Thursday 21th of May 2015, Maaike Snelder and Dimitris Milakis. Development and implications of automated vehiles

1. 1Challenge the future

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A first drive with fully automated vehicle…

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Introduction
Automated vehicles: many questions, few answers…
Will there be more or less
congestion?
Will we drive longer or shorter distances?
Are we going to own or share cars?Will we need more or less road
infrastructures?
To what extent on-street and off-street
parking spaces will be necessary?
Will we travel safer?
How cities will evolve?
Will we need buses?
Will we consume more or less energy to travel?
When fully automated vehicles
will hit the market?

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What we will talk about today…
Levels of vehicle automation
Conceptual model
Literature
Scenarios
Future research

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Levels of automation and cooperation

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The ripple effect of automated driving
Milakis, D., van Arem, B., van Wee, B. 2015 (work in progress). Implications of automated
driving. Delft Infrastructures and Mobility Initiative.

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The ripple effect of automated driving
1st ripple
2nd ripple
3rd ripple

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What we know so far…
Capacity motorway
• ACC can either have a small negative or
a small positive effect on capacity
(~ -5% to +10%)
• Bottlenecks: increase <10%
• Positive effect stability and capacity
drop
• Lower level roads?
(Shladover, Su, & Lu, 2012)
Snelder, M., van Arem, B., Hoogendoorn, R., van Nes, R. (2015). Methodische Verkenning
Zelfrijdende Auto’s en Bereikbaarheid, TU Delft T&P 1501, ISSN: 2212-0491.

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What we know so far…
Value of time
• Unknown!
• Expectation based on increase in wages (+30%): +15%
• Lower than +15%: travel time enrichment
• To what extent can travel time enrichment for car travel increase
further as a result of the introduction of automated vehicles?
• Indication: VOT car passenger = 80% VOT car driver
KIM (2013)
1997 2010
Commuter Business Other
Car -19% -19% +39%
Train +17% +28% +27%

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What we know so far…
Travel behaviour
• Car ownership (Litman, 2014):
• Decrease: car sharing & Ownership cost increase
• Increase: other user groups
• Car usage (Brown, Gonder, and Repac, 2013):
• Increase: also children, elderly and disabled can use a car (~ + 40%)
• Increase: fuel cost per kilometer decrease
• Car occupancy (Brown, Gonder, and Repac, 2013):
• Increase (ride sharing)
• Search for parking:
• decrease
1 shared automated vehicle ≈
5-12 conventional cars
(Fagnant and Kockelman, 2014; ITF, 2015).

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What we know so far…
Congestion, emissions, safety
• Significant effects on flow, fuel consumption and emissions at
at high penetration rates (>40%?)
• Positive effect shockwaves: 8% - 89%.
• Positive effect on safety, delays caused by incidents and
travel time reliability.
fixed
bottleneck
Incidents
Shock waves

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(Litman, 2014)
What we know so far…
Development
2012
• Technological development
• Barriers
• Lifetime of cars/fleet turnover
• Costs of the cars
• Services
• …

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Scenarios about development and implications of
automated vehicles in the Nertherlands.
Methodology
Milakis, D., Snelder, M., van Arem, B., van Wee, B., Correia, G., 2015. Development of automated vehicles in the Netherlands: scenarios for 2030 and 2050.
Delft, The Netherlands: Delft University of Technology, T&P 1502, ISSN: 2212-0491.

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Key factors and drivers of the scenarios

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Impact and uncertainty of scenarios drivers

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Scenarios about development and implications of
automated vehicles in the Nertherlands.
Scenario matrix

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Scenarios about development and implications of
automated vehicles in the Nertherlands.
Penetration rate

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Scenarios about development and implications of
automated vehicles in the Nertherlands.
Value of time

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Scenarios about development and implications of
automated vehicles in the Nertherlands.
Capacity

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Scenarios about development and implications of
automated vehicles in the Nertherlands.
Vehicle Kilometres Traveled

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Which scenario of AV development do you think is the most likely?
fruits.to/#D46

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Conclusions & future research
Development of AV:
Technologies, policies, and customers’ attitudes
are the most influential and uncertain driving forces for the development of automated vehicles.
Fully automated vehicles will likely be a reality between 2025 and 2045
and are expected to have significant implications for mobility and planning policies in the Netherlands.
Implications of AV:
Traffic (capacity, safety)
simulation, analytical mathematics
Mobility (VKT, mode choice, car sharing)
focus groups, in-depth interviews,
stated preference experiments, simulation
Location choices and land use (accessibility, urban form)
focus groups, in-depth interviews,
stated preference experiments, simulation
Systems behaviour
scenario exercices, system dynamics

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Questions?
d.milakis@tudelft.nl
m.snelder@tudelft.nl
Maaike.snelder@tno.nl