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Population projection 2019, Markus Rapo, Statistic Finland

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Users Conference 30.9.2019, Statistic Finland

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Population projection 2019, Markus Rapo, Statistic Finland

  1. 1. Population projection 2019 Figures for tomorrow / Tiedosta tulevaisuus Statistics Finland 30 September 2019
  2. 2. In my presentation -Current information on demographic development -Population projection 2019 1.10.2019 Markus Rapo – Population projection 2019
  3. 3. The nature and interpretation of Statistics Finland's population projection - The population projection is not to be interpreted as indicating inevitable development because the population projection is not intended to become realised - In the long term, population projections contain uncertainty • Migration, wars/conflicts, epidemics - In the short term • Economic situation, employment, etc. 1.10.2019 Markus Rapo – Population projection 2019
  4. 4. The birth rate decreases for the ninth consecutive year
  5. 5. Total fertility rate in 1940 to 2019* 1.10.2019 Markus Rapo – Population projection 2019 0,00 0,50 1,00 1,50 2,00 2,50 3,00 3,50 4,00 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1973: 1,50 2010: 1,87 2019*: 1,33* *) estimate
  6. 6. Foreign-language speakers head to Uusimaa
  7. 7. Net migration between regions by native language in 2014 to 2018 1.10.2019 Markus Rapo – Population projection 2019 -6 000 -5 000 -4 000 -3 000 -2 000 -1 000 0 1 000 Pohjois-Pohjanmaa Kymenlaakso Satakunta Pohjanmaa Etelä-Savo Etelä-Pohjanmaa Lappi Kanta-Häme Kainuu Etelä-Karjala Pohjois-Karjala Keski-Pohjanmaa Pohjois-Savo Päijät-Häme Keski-Suomi AhvenanmaaKotimaiset kielet Vieraskieliset Domestic languages Foreign languages
  8. 8. Net migration between regions by native language in 2014 to 2018 1.10.2019 Markus Rapo – Population projection 2019 -5 000 0 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000 Varsinais-Suomi Pirkanmaa Uusimaa Kotimaiset kielet Vieraskieliset Domestic languages Foreign languages
  9. 9. Growth in net immigration over for the time being?
  10. 10. Net immigration in 1991 and 2018 by the immigrant’s country of birth according to the HDI 1.10.2019 Markus Rapo – Population projection 2019 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 Finland High-HDI MID-HDI LOW-HDI Total Net
  11. 11. Population change factors in 2000 to 2018 How many years has it been negative (max 19) 1.10.2019 Markus Rapo – Population projection 2019 Syntyneiden KVMU Kokonais- Väkiluvun enemmyys netto netto muutos Uusimaa 0 0 0 0 Pirkanmaa 2 0 0 0 Varsinais-Suomi 4 0 0 0 Ahvenanmaa - Åland 4 0 0 0 Keski-Suomi 4 8 1 2 Pohjois-Pohjanmaa 0 16 8 0 Päijät-Häme 14 9 1 5 Kanta-Häme 14 7 4 5 Pohjanmaa 2 19 8 6 Keski-Pohjanmaa 0 19 18 8 Etelä-Pohjanmaa 12 19 15 14 Etelä-Karjala 19 19 6 19 Pohjois-Savo 19 17 13 16 Kymenlaakso 19 19 10 19 Pohjois-Karjala 19 19 11 18 Lappi 12 19 18 19 Satakunta 19 19 14 19 Etelä-Savo 19 19 19 19 Kainuu 19 19 19 19 Birth International Total Population Excess net net change
  12. 12. Population projection 2019
  13. 13. Population projection 2019 to 2070, assumptions - Total fertility rate 1.35 - Net immigration 15,000 persons/year - Mortality is expected to decrease throughout the period – Years 1987 to 1991 vs. 2013 to 2017 - Migration probabilities between regions calculated based on 2014 to 2018 1.10.2019 Markus Rapo – Population projection 2019
  14. 14. Assumptions 2009 2012 2015 2018 2019 - TFR 1.85 1.82 1.70 1.45 1.35 - Net 15,000 17,000 17,000 15,000 15,000 - E0M 2040 84.3 83.9 84.0 84.2 84.2 - E0N 2040 88.9 88.6 88.2 88.2 88.2 - E65M 2040 22.9 22.2 21.9 21.8 21.8 - E65N 2040 26.2 25.6 25.0 24.9 24.9 1.10.2019 Markus Rapo – Population projection 2019
  15. 15. Statistics Finland's population projections 1.10.2019 Markus Rapo – Population projection 2019 4,4 4,6 4,8 5 5,2 5,4 5,6 5,8 6 6,2 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2009 / 2012 2015 2007 2018 2004 2019
  16. 16. Number of municipalities where births exceed deaths Current municipal division (311 municipalities) 1.10.2019 Markus Rapo – Population projection 2019 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1951 1959 1967 1975 1983 1991 1999 2007 2015 2023 2031 2039 2018: 60 kuntaa 2040: 12 kuntaa 2010: 119 kuntaa
  17. 17. Detected change in the population in 2006 to 2018 and estimated change 2019 to 2030 (per cent) 1.10.2019 Markus Rapo – Population projection 2019 -15,0 -10,0 -5,0 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 Etelä-Savo Kainuu Kymenlaakso Etelä-Karjala Satakunta Lappi Pohjois-Karjala Etelä-Pohjanmaa Pohjois-Savo Päijät-Häme Kanta-Häme Keski-Pohjanmaa Keski-Suomi Pohjanmaa Varsinais-Suomi Pohjois-Pohjanmaa Pirkanmaa Ahvenanmaa Uusimaa 2018-2030 2006-2018
  18. 18. Estimated population change 2019 to 2030 1.10.2019 Markus Rapo – Population projection 2019 -20000 -15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 -20000 -15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 Syntyneet-kuolleet Kokonaisnettomuutto Väkiluvun muutos Births-deaths Total net migration Population change
  19. 19. Demographic dependency ratio 1980 to 2018 and estimate until 2070 using different estimates 1.10.2019 Markus Rapo – Population projection 2019 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2009 2004 2007 20152012 2018 2001 2019
  20. 20. Demographic dependency ratio by region 2018 and projection for 2030 1.10.2019 Markus Rapo – Population projection 2019 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0 80,0 90,0 100,0 Uusimaa Pirkanmaa Varsinais-Suomi Pohjois-Pohjanmaa Keski-Suomi Pohjanmaa Ahvenanmaa Keski-Pohjanmaa Pohjois-Savo Etelä-Karjala Päijät-Häme Kanta-Häme Satakunta Pohjois-Karjala Lappi Etelä-Pohjanmaa Kymenlaakso Kainuu Etelä-Savo 2030 2018
  21. 21. Summary - The current birth rate would be reflected in the future regional demographic development more clearly - In 15 years, there will be no regions in Finland where births exceed deaths - First the demographic dependency ratio will weaken more slowly and then faster • There is still time to react 1.10.2019 Markus Rapo – Population projection 2019
  22. 22. We cannot affect the past, we can try to affect the future
  23. 23. Thank you Markus Rapo markus.rapo(a)stat.fi vaesto.tilasto(a)stat.fi

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