Users Conference 30.9.2019, Statistic Finland

1. Population projection 2019
Figures for tomorrow / Tiedosta tulevaisuus
Statistics Finland 30 September 2019

2. In my presentation
－Current information on demographic development
－Population projection 2019
1.10.2019 Markus Rapo – Population projection 2019

3. The nature and interpretation of Statistics
Finland's population projection
－ The population projection is not to be interpreted as indicating
inevitable development because the population projection is not
intended to become realised
－ In the long term, population projections contain uncertainty
• Migration, wars/conflicts, epidemics
－ In the short term
• Economic situation, employment, etc.
1.10.2019 Markus Rapo – Population projection 2019

4. The birth rate decreases for the ninth
consecutive year

5. Total fertility rate in 1940 to 2019*
1.10.2019 Markus Rapo – Population projection 2019
0,00
0,50
1,00
1,50
2,00
2,50
3,00
3,50
4,00
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
1973: 1,50
2010: 1,87
2019*: 1,33* *) estimate

6. Foreign-language speakers head to
Uusimaa

7. Net migration between regions by native language in 2014 to 2018
1.10.2019 Markus Rapo – Population projection 2019
-6 000 -5 000 -4 000 -3 000 -2 000 -1 000 0 1 000
Pohjois-Pohjanmaa
Kymenlaakso
Satakunta
Pohjanmaa
Etelä-Savo
Etelä-Pohjanmaa
Lappi
Kanta-Häme
Kainuu
Etelä-Karjala
Pohjois-Karjala
Keski-Pohjanmaa
Pohjois-Savo
Päijät-Häme
Keski-Suomi
AhvenanmaaKotimaiset kielet
Vieraskieliset
Domestic languages
Foreign languages

8. Net migration between regions by native language in 2014 to 2018
1.10.2019 Markus Rapo – Population projection 2019
-5 000 0 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000
Varsinais-Suomi
Pirkanmaa
Uusimaa
Kotimaiset kielet
Vieraskieliset
Domestic languages
Foreign languages

9. Growth in net immigration over for the time
being?

10. Net immigration in 1991 and 2018 by the immigrant’s
country of birth according to the HDI
1.10.2019 Markus Rapo – Population projection 2019
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
Finland High-HDI MID-HDI LOW-HDI Total Net

11. Population change factors in 2000 to 2018
How many years has it been negative (max 19)
1.10.2019 Markus Rapo – Population projection 2019
Syntyneiden KVMU Kokonais- Väkiluvun
enemmyys netto netto muutos
Uusimaa 0 0 0 0
Pirkanmaa 2 0 0 0
Varsinais-Suomi 4 0 0 0
Ahvenanmaa - Åland 4 0 0 0
Keski-Suomi 4 8 1 2
Pohjois-Pohjanmaa 0 16 8 0
Päijät-Häme 14 9 1 5
Kanta-Häme 14 7 4 5
Pohjanmaa 2 19 8 6
Keski-Pohjanmaa 0 19 18 8
Etelä-Pohjanmaa 12 19 15 14
Etelä-Karjala 19 19 6 19
Pohjois-Savo 19 17 13 16
Kymenlaakso 19 19 10 19
Pohjois-Karjala 19 19 11 18
Lappi 12 19 18 19
Satakunta 19 19 14 19
Etelä-Savo 19 19 19 19
Kainuu 19 19 19 19
Birth International Total Population
Excess net net change

12. Population projection 2019

13. Population projection 2019 to 2070,
assumptions
－ Total fertility rate 1.35
－ Net immigration 15,000 persons/year
－ Mortality is expected to decrease throughout the period
– Years 1987 to 1991 vs. 2013 to 2017
－ Migration probabilities between regions calculated
based on 2014 to 2018
1.10.2019 Markus Rapo – Population projection 2019

14. Assumptions
2009 2012 2015 2018 2019
－ TFR 1.85 1.82 1.70 1.45 1.35
－ Net 15,000 17,000 17,000 15,000 15,000
－ E0M 2040 84.3 83.9 84.0 84.2 84.2
－ E0N 2040 88.9 88.6 88.2 88.2 88.2
－ E65M 2040 22.9 22.2 21.9 21.8 21.8
－ E65N 2040 26.2 25.6 25.0 24.9 24.9
1.10.2019 Markus Rapo – Population projection 2019

15. Statistics Finland's population projections
1.10.2019 Markus Rapo – Population projection 2019
4,4
4,6
4,8
5
5,2
5,4
5,6
5,8
6
6,2
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2009 / 2012
2015
2007
2018
2004
2019

16. Number of municipalities where births exceed
deaths
Current municipal division (311 municipalities)
1.10.2019 Markus Rapo – Population projection 2019
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1951 1959 1967 1975 1983 1991 1999 2007 2015 2023 2031 2039
2018: 60 kuntaa
2040: 12 kuntaa
2010: 119 kuntaa

17. Detected change in the population in 2006 to 2018
and estimated change 2019 to 2030 (per cent)
1.10.2019 Markus Rapo – Population projection 2019
-15,0 -10,0 -5,0 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0
Etelä-Savo
Kainuu
Kymenlaakso
Etelä-Karjala
Satakunta
Lappi
Pohjois-Karjala
Etelä-Pohjanmaa
Pohjois-Savo
Päijät-Häme
Kanta-Häme
Keski-Pohjanmaa
Keski-Suomi
Pohjanmaa
Varsinais-Suomi
Pohjois-Pohjanmaa
Pirkanmaa
Ahvenanmaa
Uusimaa
2018-2030
2006-2018

18. Estimated population change 2019 to 2030
1.10.2019 Markus Rapo – Population projection 2019
-20000
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
-20000
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
Syntyneet-kuolleet Kokonaisnettomuutto Väkiluvun muutos
Births-deaths Total net migration Population change

19. Demographic dependency ratio 1980 to 2018 and
estimate until 2070 using different estimates
1.10.2019 Markus Rapo – Population projection 2019
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
2009
2004
2007 20152012
2018
2001
2019

20. Demographic dependency ratio by region 2018 and
projection for 2030
1.10.2019 Markus Rapo – Population projection 2019
0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0 80,0 90,0 100,0
Uusimaa
Pirkanmaa
Varsinais-Suomi
Pohjois-Pohjanmaa
Keski-Suomi
Pohjanmaa
Ahvenanmaa
Keski-Pohjanmaa
Pohjois-Savo
Etelä-Karjala
Päijät-Häme
Kanta-Häme
Satakunta
Pohjois-Karjala
Lappi
Etelä-Pohjanmaa
Kymenlaakso
Kainuu
Etelä-Savo
2030
2018

21. Summary
－ The current birth rate would be reflected in the future regional
demographic development more clearly
－ In 15 years, there will be no regions in Finland where births
exceed deaths
－ First the demographic dependency ratio will weaken more slowly
and then faster
• There is still time to react
1.10.2019 Markus Rapo – Population projection 2019

22. We cannot affect the past,
we can try to affect the future

23. Thank you
Markus Rapo
markus.rapo(a)stat.fi
vaesto.tilasto(a)stat.fi