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Prof. F.C. Rosati, La statistica per la ricerca: caratteristiche, integrazione e impatto della presenza straniera in Italia

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Convegno Scientifico Istat Roma Aula Magna 10.12.19
L’immigrazione in Italia: i dati e gli attori istituzionali
via Cesare Balbo,16

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Prof. F.C. Rosati, La statistica per la ricerca: caratteristiche, integrazione e impatto della presenza straniera in Italia

  1. 1. La statistica per la ricerca: caratteristiche, integrazione e impatto della presenza straniera in Italia L’immigrazione in Italia: i dati e gli attori istituzionali Roma, 10 dicembre 2019 Prof. Furio Camillo Rosati Università di Roma «TorVergata» CEIS - Centre for Economics and International Studies ICID - The Italian Centre for International Development
  2. 2. Outline  The overall picture  The integration of immigrants  The effect of immigration  Some open questions Reference: Mariani, R. D., Pasquini A. and Rosati, F. C. «Elementary facts on Italian immigration.What do we know about Immigration and its impact in Italy» (forthcoming)
  3. 3. The overall picture. Some elementary facts  As of 2018, the percentage of the immigrant population with respect to the native population is about 9, with a relatively higher concentration in the North and in the Centre. Source: Authors' elaboration on ISTAT data. Notes: Areas are classified according to NUTS 1 level.
  4. 4. The overall picture 2012 North-West North-East Centre South Islands Italy Africa 0.25 0.24 0.13 0.17 0.28 0.21 Asia 0.18 0.17 0.20 0.14 0.21 0.18 South America 0.13 0.04 0.07 0.04 0.03 0.08 Europe 0.41 0.53 0.55 0.62 0.42 0.50 High-income Countries 0.04 0.03 0.05 0.04 0.06 0.04 2018 North-West North-East Centre South Islands Italy Africa 0.25 0.22 0.14 0.22 0.32 0.21 Asia 0.20 0.19 0.23 0.19 0.21 0.20 South America 0.11 0.04 0.07 0.03 0.02 0.07 Europe 0.41 0.53 0.51 0.52 0.40 0.48 High-income Countries 0.04 0.03 0.05 0.03 0.04 0.04 Source:Authors' elaboration on ISTAT data. Notes: High-income countries include: EU15, EU EFTA, North America and Oceania. Europe includes all EU countries excluding those in EU15.Areas are classified according to NUTS 1 level. Share of immigrants by area of origin
  5. 5. The overall picture Composition of Italian immigration by nationality (top 10 countries) 2012 2018 Romania 20.90 Romania 23.30 Albania 11.20 Albania 8.60 Morocco 10.20 Morocco 8.20 China 4.90 China 5.70 Ukraine 4.50 Ukraine 4.60 Moldova 3.30 Philippines 3.30 Philippines 3.20 India 3.00 India 3.00 Moldova 2.60 Peru 2.30 Bangladesh 2.60 Poland 2.10 Egypt 2.30 Total 65.60 Total 64.20 Source:Authors' elaboration on ISTAT data.
  6. 6. The overall picture Percentage of immigrants by municipality size Panel A Municipality population 2012 2018 Italy 7.32 9.33 Less than 100,000 6.76 7.45 Up to 250,000 7.06 9.06 More than 250,000 9.52 14.04 Panel B Municipality population 2012 2018 Less than 100,000 29.20 24.41 Up to 250,000 51.97 53.13 More than 250,000 18.83 22.16 Source:Authors' elaboration with ISTAT data. Notes: In Panel A the immigrant share is computed as percentage of the native population, while in Panel B it is computed as share of the total immigrants.
  7. 7.  The concentration by area of origin is rather similar across the territory
  8. 8. The integration of immigrants. Geographical segregation?  Integration is defined as the absence of differences in socio-economic outcomes – such as education and labour market outcomes – between immigrants and natives (Alba & Nee, 1997).  Fist of all, we look at the geographical integration of immigrants. In case of no integration, we talk about balkanization – the process of fragmentation of a region into smaller regions inhabited by segregated populations.
  9. 9. Geographical segregation  The Duncan Segregation Index 𝑆 = 1 2 𝑚 𝑅 𝑚 𝐼 𝑅 𝐼 − 𝑅 𝑚 𝑁 𝑅 𝑁 Year Duncan Index 2012 0.28 2013 0.28 2014 0.28 2015 0.27 2016 0.27 2017 0.26 2018 0.26 Source:Authors’ elaboration on ISTAT data
  10. 10. Geographical segregation Source:Authors' elaboration on ISTAT data. Notes: In purple municipalities where the share of residing immigrants with respect to the total of immigrants is higher than the natives’ equivalent. Duncan Segregation Index Immigrants concentrate more, with respect to the native population, in the Centre-North of Italy.
  11. 11. Geographical segregation Comulative net flows of immigrants from 2012 to 2018 Immigrants have a relatively high internal mobility rate (higher than natives).These movements tend to reallocate with respect to areas of first arrival and to change in labour demand. Source: Authors’ elaboration on ISTAT data
  12. 12. Geographical segregation. Internal movements Partial correlation (controlling for income pc, public budget, natural pop increase, year and area fe)  Immigrants tend to move where also natives go.  Internal movements after arrival can increase the concentration over the territory.
  13. 13. Geographical segregation. Economic condition Partial correlation (controlling for public budget, natural pop increase, year and area fe )  At the local labour market level we find a slightly positive correlation between the share of immigrants from low- income countries and the per-capita income of the Local Labour Market.
  14. 14. The employment of immigrants Share of immigrants in empolyment by NACE sector 2012 2018 Agriculture, forestry and fishing 14.82 18.57 Manufacturing 9.00 10.50 Construction 21.49 18.46 Wholesale and retail trade 5.07 6.67 Accommodation and food service activities 17.27 20.27 Transportation and storage 10.15 10.91 Information and communication 1.36 3.18 Financial and insurance activities 0.28 0.55 Real estate activities 7.49 6.51 Public administration and defence 0.00 0.00 Education, human health and social work activities 3.24 3.15 Other services 43.25 57.95 Distribution of immigrants by NACE sector 2012 2018 Agriculture, forestry and fishing 5.02 5.92 Manufacturing 19.32 19.27 Construction 15.55 9.74 Wholesale and retail trade 8.12 9.08 Accommodation and food service activities 8.44 9.69 Transportation and storage 4.94 4.73 Information and communication 0.40 0.80 Financial and insurance activities 0.09 0.16 Real estate activities 7.99 7.08 Public administration and defence 0.00 0.00 Education, human health and social work activities 5.41 4.98 Other services 24.73 28.53
  15. 15. The employment of immigrants  The geography of sectors where immigrant workers are mostly employed. Source:Authos’ elaboration on ISTAT data. Notes: Colours indicate the sector of highest employment of immigrants in the province (NUTS3)
  16. 16. Immigrants’ economic conditions  Evidence is rather limited and not very robust.  In terms of employment, immigrant workers show a high probability of being employed, but they are segregated in manual jobs.This is true even after controlling for formal education (Fullin & Reymeri, 2011).The higher incidence of over-education among immigrants – relatively to natives – is not attenuated by years spent in Italy (Dell’Aringa & Pagani, 2011).  The overall immigrants’ and natives’ variance of wages is mostly explained by the within group inequality (Ceccarelli et al., 2014).
  17. 17. The education of immigrants’ children  The school performances are measured through the INVALSI test scores.  The disadvantage of immigrant students is relatively large and persists also for the second generation immigrants. AcademicYear First Generation Second Generation Grade 2 Grade 10 Grade 2 Grade 10 2011/12 -13.6 -5.4 -7.5 -12.8 2012/13 -15.1 -15.0 -8.7 -12.3 2013/14 -18.0 -15.3 -10.5 -10.2 2014/15 -22.1 -21.0 -13.7 -24.6 2015/16 -23.6 -17.9 -14.9 -16.9 2016/17 -24.2 -18.8 -17.9 -5.1 2017/18 -19.5 -10.5 -12.7 -9.0 Source: Authors’ elaboration INVALSI data. Notes: Differences are expressed as percentage of native students’ scores. Immigrant learning gap as percentage of native test scores
  18. 18. The education of immigrants’ children. Learning gap Source:Authors’ elaboration on INVALSI data. Notes:The outcome is reading test scores for grade 10. OLS coefficients  After controlling for background characteristics, the learning gap is reduced but persists (see Murat, 2002; Barban & White, 2011; Di Liberto, 2015).  The learning gap is decreasing over time, especially for second generation students.  The length of stay in Italy greatly affects the school performance of immigrant students (Di Liberto, 2015)
  19. 19. The impact of immigration on natives  The presence of immigrants tend to reduce South – North migration of natives mobility and to displace low skilled workers  Analyses looking at the impact of immigration on natives’ labour market oucomes are rather scant and mainly refer to a period earlier than 2000, when immigration was a less prominent phenomenon  Also with respect to the productive structure the evidence is scarse and not particularly robust  More solid evidence on human capital formation.The share of first-generation immigrants has a small negative impact on natives’ learning outcomes (especially reading).The effect of non-native students on native peers is higher the higher the presence of immigrants in the classroom, the lower the education level of natives and the higher the linguistic distance between immigrant and native students
  20. 20. Some open questions
  21. 21. Data needs and the definition of migrant Consistency in the data.
  22. 22. Who is a migrant: non citizens, foreign born or.. Source:Authors’ elaboration on ISTAT data
  23. 23. Is naturalization exogenous? Source:Authors’ elaboration on ISTAT data Note: Naturalization Rate by Province
  24. 24. Net and gross flows Source:Authors’ elaboration on ISTAT data
  25. 25. Distribution of immigration costs What do we know  Wages and employment of low skilled natives can be affected (?)  In education, low-performing children are the most affected by the presence of immigrant peers in the class What we do not know Distribution of other costs:  Housing  Congestion in public services …and many more
  26. 26. Spatial concentration of natives and immigrants
  27. 27. Concentration of immigrants within LLM
  28. 28. Distribution of immigrant students by native socioeconomic status Category of Socio-Economic background of natives (class average) Average number of 1st generation immigrants (unconditional) Average number of 1st generation immigrants (conditional) Low 0.88 2.12 Middle 0.99 2.01 High 0.46 1.45 Source:Authors’ elaboration on INVALSI data
  29. 29. Attitudes towards immigration Source:Authors’ elaboration on ISTAT data. Observations: 2026 Notes: Data refers to Round 6 (2012) and Round 8 (2016) of the European Social Survey in Italy. Many 14% Some 37% Few 33% None 16%
  30. 30. Cultural identity Source: Bisin and Tura (2019)
  31. 31. La statistica per la ricerca: caratteristiche, integrazione e impatto della presenza straniera in Italia Prof. Furio Camillo Rosati (CEIS, Università di Roma «Tor Vergata») Thank you

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