Before I talk about Transport; I would just like to say that I’m truly impressed how London is coping with the increase in visitors during the games. A real success !Welcome in the next 15 minutes we will be looking at Intelligent Mobility and why its time is right to help our congested networks be they roads, rail, air or waterways.Intelligent Mobility is all about optimising vehicle movements. The strain on the UK’s transport network which is estimated to cost £12bn a year and we will look at the role that Intelligent Mobility can play in reducing this strain and the importance of collaboration between government, infrastructure providers, and technologists. 91% of all UK passenger miles are on roads. In Europe, 2 200 000 million tonne-kilometres (tkm) of freight were moved in 2009. To visualise this, it equates to 1 tonne of goods travelling to the sun and back 6 times. A little over three quarters (77.5 %) of this freight total was transported over roads. It is predicted that by 2020 there will be a 50% increase in freight.
TQ SPEAKING NOTES:A little about LogicaIntro Logica; 3.7Bn revenues, 41,000 people, 41 countries---Just a quick introduction, I‘m Theo Quick, Global leader for the ITS Practice at Logica. For those of you that don‘t already know us, Logica is a business and technical services company, with revenues of £3.7Bn and 41,000 people working out of 41 countries.
TQ Speaking Points:Here are a few of our accomplishments – highlight Network Rail.------On this slide you will see some of our accomplishments; for example our Journey Planner in Finland is the second most valued brand after Google and also here in the UK where we helped Network Rail invoice £2Bn for usage of the network based on real useage rather than assumed data. This now includes the electricity being used via smart meters. But we don‘t just focus on the UK market – our work in the Middle East is one such example of exporting UK skills.
So lets look at the problem of transportation – we will look at congestion, pollution, the environment and the economy.
The UK is great at congestion – we are ranked as 5th in the world. It costs us £12 billion – but this is not a temporary problem: congestion will continue in the absence of measures to reduce traffic, it is infeasible to match a transport build programme to match the unrestricted trends in traffic growth.But it isn’t just the roads, when discussing the potential for the Northern Way, freeing rail congestion around Manchester, Prof David Begg, said that "greater connectivity across Manchester would bring between £13bn and £16bn economic benefits for the north of England and beyond.“However when we look to modal shift ….-------------------Read more at: http://menmedia.co.uk/manchestereveningnews/news/s/1111595_rail_congestion_losing_16bnIn Manchester alone it is expected that the economy is missing out on up to £16bn because of rail congestion around the city (http://menmedia.co.uk/manchestereveningnews/news/s/1111595_rail_congestion_losing_16bn)Figures from SMMT: http://www.smmt.co.uk/2011/12/automotive-council-report-calls-for-new-approach-to-tackle-road-congestion/ Congestion charge figure: Intelligent Mobility: A national need? P.6
However when we look to modal shift we can’t ignore that road vehicles (cars, vans and taxis) dominate the passenger landscape. They account for more than 90% of the total distance travelled. So as much as we push modal shift, it isn’t working.Perhaps part of this trend is due to the population numbers…..Department for Transport (2010) Transport Statistics Great Britain www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/statistics/datatablespublications/modal/passenger/tsgb0101.xls
UK ranks as the 8th most densely populated out of the top 25 nations - Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the UK’s populationis set to rise from 62.3 million in 2010 to 67.2 million by 2020 and 73.2 million by 2035. That’s a rise of 10.9 million people by 2035. Change and flexibility is essential as the UK Transport network is expected to adapt and accommodate such changes to the population with increasing demand to access social and economic opportunities not forgetting all the freight which will need to be moved around the country to feed and cloth these additional numbers. Population figure: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-15461579
We often focus on safety, and in 2010 there were unfortunately 1857 fatalities on UK roads; this was the lowest record number since records began back in 1926. However air quality is also an issue with road transport account for 22% of the total UK CO2 emissions. Also in 2010 the Committee On the Medical Effects of Air Pollutants (COMEAP) estimated that air pollution contributed to theearlier deaths of up to 200,000 people. I suggest we need to act both on safety but also on the impacts of air quality. CO2 data: Environmental protection UK: http://www.environmental-protection.org.uk/transport/car-pollution/ and http://www.thepep.org/clearinghouse/docfiles/the.future.of.transport.pdf COMEAP - http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=8&ved=0CFYQFjAH&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cleanairinlondon.org%2F_attachments%2F4708695%2FCAL%2520120%2520211210%2520COMEAP%2520Mortality%2520Effects%2520Press%2520Release%25202010.pdf&ei=9kFqT5ewEIqx0AW945zrCA&usg=AFQjCNF1w9nVuSRx4mlINVMJV83IDoNUCA
And finally the economy, I’ve already quoted some very large numbers of the impacts of our inefficient transport network; Efficient use of the whole network in an integrated way is essential to maintain investment and confidence in the UK’s ability to meet business demands through effective freight transfer, logistics and people movement. And so I support the Government’s statement that “a modern transport infrastructure is essential for a dynamic and entrepreneurial economy”. The LSE in 2009 stated that a £5 billion investment into ITS would create an estimated 188,500 jobs.
We have 3 optionsBuild – where is the money the money to pay for thisEncourage modal shift– which we’ve seen isn’t affectiveTurn to ICT to assisthttp://assets.dft.gov.uk/publications/road-transport-forecasts-2011/road-transport-forecasts-2011-results.pdf Rail quote: http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201012/cmselect/cmtran/1185/118506.htm
I guess there is no surprises there – The UK as a natural test bed for these technologies combined with our engineering, telecommunication and ICT skills means that we’ve the academics and companies who can deliver ITS solutions and services
So what is Intelligent Mobility
Intelligent Mobility enables the optimisation of vehicle movements through the use of the recent boom in communications and location-based technologies. You see some of the examples of what can be achieved with Intelligent Mobility. Through this proliferation of information we can now treat the transport network as a whole rather than a collection of inter-connected objects For example imagine a bus today. It turns up to a station, picks up what passengers who are waiting and continues with its route. The timetable of the bus will hopefully have been scheduled with the arrival of a train. If the train is delayed the passengers need to wait or find alternate routes, perhaps using a taxi.With Intelligent Mobility the bus is aware that a train is delayed and as it also knows about the road conditions it can optimise its speed to minimise fuel use and emissions on its route to the rail station rather than keep to the fixed timetable. It can then wait to pick up the delayed passengers and continue along its route; again optimising its speed against the timetable, road conditions and distance from other buses on the network. This results in a lower fuel costs for the bus operator, lower emissions and greater satisfaction for the travellers – all whilst ensuring public transport is used rather than perhaps taxis which increase congestion. This is one example of what we can do today….
We have a number of other Intelligent Mobility technologies available today. Predictive traffic flows allow preventative measures to be taken – today this is in the form of traffic information services – but in the future this would include dynamic routing information taking a holistic approach rather than the individual approach our sat navis do today. We’ve seen how managed motorways have been a great success where the hard shoulder is open at peak times to enable more throughput of vehicles. But also Green Waves where traffic isn’t subject to seemingly random stop/start at traffic lights.We can provide accurate time of a parcel arriving to the recipient – no longer waiting in all dayThough greater choice modal shift will happen- journey planners are just the start of this process though.With the increase in EV adoption, fuel tax revenues will decrease – increased tolling may be necessary. If all of these are available today why is there still a problem. One of the main challenges is to link these technologies into systems and services. I see 3 reasons for this and I’m pleased to report that these main barriers are being broken down:1. We are seeing a tend towards integrated transport authorities who look over the whole transport network, but apart from TfL this is relatively new development. This has resulted in point solutions being procured rather than taking a holistic approach to the transport network in a region.2. Data has been silo’d. It has been kept within an organisation and not shared; however this is changing and we are seeing data being made more freely available to not only other organisations but also small app developers. This is resulting in a great wealth of additional services being available and I do believe we are only at the tip of the iceberg in this regard. 3. And finally there is also the issue of funding – the benefits of these systems are often felt not with the organisation who are investing in the technology to begin with. For example putting the technology to allow vehicles to be monitored for the drivers behaviour is best undertaken by the Auto OEM, but it is the insurance firms who benefit from the information which it provides. Until new business models and ecosystems can be developed this challenge will always remain.But what of the future:
The convergence of technologies, systems and stakeholders leads to the idea of machine to machine communication and ultimately autonomous control can become a reality. We hear lots about Google’s Autonomous Vehicles; but I also recommend you have a look at the Oxford University team.M2M refers to machines or devices that can communicate with other machines or devices, on either wired or wireless networks, to pass information on events, which are then be acted upon. We are starting to see these technologies being looked at by the Automotive OEMs primarily for safety implications; collision detection systems involving blind spots. But extend this to information for traffic authorities who can then manage the information drivers receive – could we see micro-routing around emission sensitive areas like schools and hospitals?In October last year, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration in the US filed a report on the potential safety benefits of vehicle-to-vehicle communication, and it estimated that intelligent vehicles could help in as many as 4.3 million police-reported light-vehicle crashes annually – this was about 81%of all light-vehicle crashes involving drivers unimpaired bydrugs or alcohol.For me this is the future of Intelligent Mobility – when the information flows leaves the vehicle rather than just into it.
Britain is investing in Intelligent Mobility. In Dec 2009 the Automotive Council was established, and Intelligent Mobility is one its “Sticky Technologies”And in the 2012 Budget the Transport Systems Catapult centre proposed:focus on efficient and sustainable ways to move people and goods (freight) across national transport systems including road, rail, sea and air. Transport Minister Theresa Villiers: “I can see such a centre making a significant contribution to reducing road congestion, reducing rail delays and improving end-to end journeys”The DfT has set aside £17 million to support this centre, which is in addition to the Technology Strategy Board contribution.”To me Intelligent Mobility is on the agenda and British companies such as Logica are ready to help.
So I leave you with a question.
2012_AUG UKTI Intelligent Mobility
SMART INFRASTRUCTUREAND THE DIGITAL ECONOMYTheo QuickGlobal Head of Intelligent Transport System Practice@TheoQuickWork
LOGICA • A business and technical services organisation • 41,000 staff worldwide • Operating in 40 Countries • >£3 billion turnover We have worked extensively with key transport operator and public transport bodies in Europe for over 20 years
LOGICA…we are delivering one of theLargest ITS project in the world ...we help manage and control all the daily …we delivered one of thein the Middle East, managing the operational activities at 10 airports in biggest smart ticketing projectimplementation of a client‟s Portugal, including Lisbon airport? with Transport Scotland - inautomated traffic the world – winning the Bestcontrol, enforcement and Transport partnership of thesecurity system, with a total Year award at the 2010investment of 1.5 billion dollars? ... we developed the Charge point Scottish Transport awards? Interactive Management System (CiMS) to manage charging points in Netherlands…we provide client side support ahead of a roll out of 10,000 charge points?and audit services to ½ of all …we help Network Railfree-flow national electronic road upload 3 million traintolling schemes in Europe? movement records a day, invoicing over ₤2 billion…our journey planner delivered annually? This project wonto the City of Helsinki has won Logica IT Provider of the Yearseveral awards and has been in 2011 & Network Rail therated Finland‟s second most BCS Enviromental Project ofvalued internet brand? the year 2011.
THE NEED FOR INTELLIGENT MOBILITY:CONGESTION • The UK ranks as the 5th most congested Congestion out the top 25 wealthiest nations. • Congestion costs the UK around £12bn annually Population • Road accidents: £9.3bn • Continued strain on networks expected as • UK ranks as one of the world‟s most intensely Environment road transport dependent societies • Office of Rail Regulation figures show that, overall, train passenger numbers are 3% Economy greater than capacity • The distance travelled on our roads has increased tenfold since 1950
THE NEED FOR INTELLIGENT MOBILITY:CONGESTION The distance travelled, by mode continues to increase, particularly on-road demand 800 Distance travelled (billion passenger kilometres) 700 600 Cars, vans and taxis 500 400 300 200 Buses and coaches Motor cycles Pedal cycles Rail 100 Air (UK) 0 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2001 2006
THE NEED FOR INTELLIGENT MOBILITY:POPULATION The UK ranks as the 8th most densely populated out Congestion of the top 25 nations with continued growth expected Millions 80 Projection Population Population reaches 70 million in 2027 70 Environment Projected population 60 Economy ONS, as cited in BBC (26/10/2011) 50 2000 2010 2020 2030 ONS, as cited in BBC (26.10.2011)
THE NEED FOR INTELLIGENT MOBILITY:ENVIRONMENT • Transport‟s effect on the environment Congestion is well publicised in terms of emissions, fossil fuel reliance and pollution Population • Poor air quality costs the UK between £4.5 and £10.6bn annually with road transport accounting for 22% of total UK Environment emissions of CO2 and 80% from transport sector as a whole • Intelligent transport systems needed Economy to address and help UK achieve climate change objectives
THE NEED FOR INTELLIGENT MOBILITY:ECONOMY • An effective and efficient transport system Congestion is an important enabler of economic growth and prosperity Population • The government has stated that “a modern transport infrastructure is essential for a dynamic and entrepreneurial economy” Environment • The economic value of public transport services in Europe amounts to €130–150 billion per year, representing approximately Economy 1–1.2 percent of the GDP
THE NEED FOR INTELLIGENT MOBILITYAssuming the population growth, and demand for multi-modal transport continues, the DfTpredicts that by 2035 road traffic will be 44% higher than in the level in 2010, with the railindustry predicting that by 2035 the railway will be carrying twice as many passengers as today.We have 3 options: 1 Proportionately increase road capacity and infrastructure at mass expense Continue to encourage a modal shift – requiring infrastructure upgrades 2 to public transport The use of Intelligent mobility to: Increase traffic flows, safety, and user 3 satisfaction whilst reducing energy consumption, emissions, and congestion
THE WINNER IS... The use of Intelligent mobility to: Increase traffic flows, safety, and user 3 satisfaction whilst reducing energy consumption, emissions, and congestion Intelligent Mobility focusing on vehicle flow across all modes of transport, using technology to: • Decrease congestion • Decrease emissions • Increase safety • Address how to fund these positive & necessary changes to sustain the UK economy
3OPTION 3: : INTELLIGENT MOBILITYIntelligent mobility focuses on:• „Mobility‟ instead of choice of transport method• Seamless planning and execution of journey planning across all transport modes• Interconnection between industries and technologies• Intelligent interactions between vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-Infrastructure
OPTIMISE VEHICLE MOVEMENTS – TODAY Intelligent Mobility has the potential to connect all forms of transport with existing infrastructure, authorities and travellers alike: Monitoring Coordinating Monitoring of Provide great Pay as you drive: current traffic traffic signals to vehicles or choice through Insurance orconditions using minimise drivers through real-time automatic tolling satellite and queues in Computer journey planners & congestion video traffic- aided for travellers charges technology, responsive way dispatch, cargo making tracking, electron predictions ic pre- based on data. clearance through borders
M2M TECHNOLOGY DRIVING INTELLIGENTMOBILITYVehicular communication and the impacton traffic flows is expected to be able toincrease capacity of existing UK roads by afactor of 3-5!Real-time communication (using WiFi andGPS) on local traffic conditions allowingeffective route-replanning and 360 degreedetection range of potential collisions andmoving obstacles