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Dr. kim jraiw the economics of rail and metro development


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Dr. kim jraiw the economics of rail and metro development

  1. 1. The Economics of Rail and Metro Development ‫البروفسور الدكتور المهندس كيم جريو‬ ‫اإلستراتيجية الوطنية للمرور وقطاع النقل 0102-0202 في دول الكويت‬Prof Dr Kim JraiwTechnical Director (UN-Gov.)National Traffic and Transport Strategy 2010-2020 for KuwaitChartered Professional EngineerRegistered Road Safety Professional PhD, MSc, MIHT, MCIT, MICE (UK); MASCE, MITE, MASA (USA); MIEng, MITE, AFAIM, CPEng (Australia); Professorship (China). Copy Right © Kim Jraiw 2012
  2. 2. Playgrounds Aircraft Field Schools OfficesPedestrians Restaurants Slow TrafficFast Traffic GarageElectric Trains Escalator Freight Area
  3. 3. Importance of Cities• Cities are integral part of the economy.• The majority of population live in the cities (over %95 in Kuwait).• Population, business, and commercial and industrial activities have significant impact on cities.• Management of cities effects national economic development of the nation.• Cities must meet the needs of current and future generations to secure the well being of the community• Cities reflects their political, social. geography, and technology issues.• Cities have shaped by the planning philosophy, transport network and building construction.
  4. 4. Urbanization Worldwide Proportion of people in cities 1950 25% 52% 2012 2050 71% Kuwait 95% The top 30 World’s Largest Cities ranked by GDP, accounted 18% of the World’s GDP in 2008 and this will be increased.Sources: UN and TrasUrban, 2012, and PricewaterhouseCoopers UK Economic Outlook 2008.
  5. 5. Challenges Facing Today CitiesCities all over the world facing challenges such as :• Cities can not operate and host the population and economic growth without efficient facilities such as transport, housing..etc.• Cities are the key source of GHG emissions, accidents, noise,G and congestion.• Cities need to efficiently manage the consumption of land and natural resources.• Due to their complexity, challenges facing today cities are beyond traditional Government / Decision-maker policy and planning approaches.• Solution for challenges facing today cities are complex and fail within the responsibility of various organisations. And this needs non traditional actions.
  6. 6. Travel Mode Share KuwaitSource: Tranurban and Jraiw K. 2012
  7. 7. Greenhouse Gas Emissions The National Traffic and Transport Sector Strategy for Kuwait 2010-2020 aims to reduce GHG emissions which contribute to climate changeSource: International Energy Agency and TransUrban, 2012
  8. 8. ‫‪Road Fatalities by Region‬‬‫ضحايا حوادث الطرق في الشرق األوسط في عام 0202‬ ‫شرق‬ ‫أسيا‬ ‫الشرق‬ ‫األوسط‬ ‫86%‬ ‫جنوب‬ ‫أسيا‬
  9. 9. Sustainable Transport SystemCities need integrated and sustainable transport system.(Sustainable Transport is a system which is economically viable,Socially acceptable, environmentally friendly and safe now and forthe next generation).Objectives of the Sustainable Transport• Support economic development and population growth• Enhance the quality of life• Improve safety and security• Improve transport opportunities for the community• Provide accessibility• Provide integrated planning and efficient management• Facilitate competition in the global economy• Maintain health and wellbeing of the population• Secure Productivity, Sustainability, and Livability in the cities• Provide continuous and acceptable finance
  10. 10. Obstacles of Transport Development• Need to enhance planning and feasibility study methodology.• Move away from the single-project approach, to integrate the overall transport network.• Need to move away from focusing on road construction only, with insufficient attention given to important issues such as public transport, maintenance …etc.• Lack of an effective planning process, supported by inadequate resources for in-depth research to understand effectiveness of investments.• Need for integrated data management system – to link engineering, social, and economic issues.• Need for capacity building.• Need for road safety-conscious system, enhanced asset management, and ITS use.
  11. 11. (2010 ‫أفضل مدن بالعالم (من 041 مدينة - مجلة االيكونوميست‬The Economists Worlds Most Livable Cities 2010 (Top 10) City Country RatingTransport 1 ‫ فانكوفر‬Vancouver Canada 98.0HealthEducation 2 ‫ فينا‬Vienna Austria 97.9SecurityTourism/Env 3 ‫ ملبورن‬Melbourne Australia 97.5 4 ‫ تورنتو‬Toronto Canada 97.2 5 ‫ كالكاري‬Calgary Canada 96.6 6 ‫ هلسنكي‬Helsinki Finland 96.2 7 ‫ سدني‬Sydney Australia 96.1 8 ‫ بيرث‬Perth Australia 95.9 9 ‫ اديليد‬Adelaide Australia 95.9 10 ‫ اوكالند‬Auckland New Zealand 95.7
  12. 12. Public transportPP is a shared passenger service which is available for use bygeneral public in-city or inter-city. thePP modes include :buses, trams , trains, rapid transit (metro/undergrounds).
  13. 13. Best Practice of Public TransportThe International Association of Public Transport has identified 16benefits of Public Transport.1. PP adds value to developing new areas, e.g value of land. Developer canjointly finance new transport infrastructure.2. Light Rail helps in the development of city centres, e,g 14 cities in 20years in the USA.3. Pedestrians, buses, and trams making CBD attractive, fortourism, business, environment...etc.4. Fast links to airports and activity centres. In some cities PP carries 40%of airport passengers.5. Easy access to all modes by e-ticket. In HK smart ticket used by %85 ofpassengers6. Technology to better inform passengers , via monitoring centers, internetand mobile.
  14. 14. Best Practice of Public Transport7. Quality bus corridor, transport s 40-200% more passengers at peaktimes. The number of single vehicle used minimized by %22 in 7 years inDublin.8. Tram –suburban trains can use same railway lines.9. Public transport becomes the preferred choice for every one if it isquick, convenient, and safe. Texas Transport Institute 2008 • Each 1% of regional travel shifted from automobile to public transit increases regional income by US $3 million & generates nearly 250 additional jobs • US $1 million for automotive expenditure generates 8 jobs while every US $1 million for public transport expenditure creates 60+ jobs
  15. 15. Houston
  16. 16. Public transport in Singapore clean, efficient, affordable, and air-conditioned. 5 m population 100% urbanized Public transport users = 4 m 3325 km roads Over 900000 vehicles 16000 bus and 14500 m/c 25000 taxi63% of morning peak passengers. 221 road fatalities2020 target = 70% 11000 road injuries
  17. 17. 3-4’’’
  18. 18. ‫منطقة أجرة االزدحام - سنغافورة‬ ‫‪Singapore ERP‬‬ ‫‪Zone‬‬ ‫’’’4-3‬
  19. 19. HK MetroOwnership = Private and institutional 23%. Government 77%Metro = 41% of passenger.
  20. 20. HK
  21. 21. Features of Successful Modern MetroOperation Issues• Integrated system.• Good customer service.• High capacity and short journey time.• Train Frequency.• Accessibility of all stations.• Safe and beautiful environment.• Competitive fares.• Excellent staff training and staff attitude• Driverless system.• Staff knowledge.• Efficiency• Non fare revenue: e.g over $300 m per annum in HK – Ads, shops, telecommunication services.• Fare revenue – over $1 billion in HK.
  22. 22. Features of Successful Modern MetroTechnical Issues• 8 car train.• Signaling system.• Platform screen doors.• Automatic platform gates.• Automatic fare collection.• Full disable access.• Lighting and noise specifications.• Fire system.• Architecture finishing – clean, attractive.• Energy saving.• High speed lifts.• Ongoing maintenance.• Air-condition.
  23. 23. Features of Successful Modern MetroFunding Issues1. Sustainable funding and fare regulation to avoid decline in quality and meet community needs. (In some cases over 50% (extra) of the original investment spent on maint, upgrading, service, operation during the 1st 15 years of operation).2. Sufficient income, with 50% for operational need and some saving.3. Government subsidy for student, disables, .etc4. Short-term and strategic planning.5. Fares that increase gradually with agreed mechanism.6. Sufficient fund for continuous growth in productivity and service.7. Efficient asset management system.8. Emergency budget.
  24. 24. Requirements of PPP• Ensure sufficient operational income.• PPP fiancé must be repaid with interest.• PPP for long term operation and maintenance was unsuccessful in some countries.• PPP must support some local activities, e.g Enforcement. PPP must support some local activities, e.g Enforcement. Clear Efficient Government’s Guidelines Management Commitment System Acceptable Agreement Risk Policy Efficient (based on Management Framework consultation Plan assessment, and obvious tender)
  25. 25. ‫كوااللمبور – ماليزيا : واحدة من‬‫أحسن 02 مدينة بالعالم بحلول عام‬ ‫0202‬‫– ‪Malaysia new Plan‬‬‫‪$60 Billion – 66% PPP‬‬‫تخصيص حولي 06 مليار دوالر: 66% مساهمة‬‫القطاع الخاص – بناء مترو وقطارات وطرق – 7 كم‬‫خدمات مشاة – 01 مدن ترفيهية – حدائق عامة –‬‫تطوير مراكز المدن - زيادة عدد العاملين من 5.2‬‫مليون إلى 5.4 مليون – زيادة السكان من 6 مليون إلى‬ ‫01 مليون‬
  26. 26. Strategic Plan for Better Public Transport‫الخطة لتنفيذية‬• Integration with various modes and community features.• Action plan to increase the market share. ‫خطة لزيادة استعمال النقل الجماعي‬• Enhance safety and security – less crime.• Sustainable enforcement and monitoring system.• Continuous quality service to meet community needs. ‫تلبية احتياجات جميع أنواع مستخدمي النقل‬• Assess pricing issues and understand potential competitor .• Issue E-Card• Provide attractive community information such as news, job vacancies, service providers, through transport facilities.• Develop customer service-oriented staff.• Meet various users and community groups need.• Establish link with stakeholders and community.• Create call centre – information available at any time.• Efficient financial plan.
  27. 27. Consideration of Safety, Security and Emergency
  28. 28. MOI GSSCPDNational and Integrated Traffic and Transport 2010-2020 Strategy for Kuwait & National Traffic Management Improvement 2010-2015 Project ‫مشروع اإلستراتيجية الوطنية الشاملة للمرور وقطاع النقل‬ ‫0102-0202 في دولة الكويت‬ 2015-2010 ‫والمشروع الوطني لتطوير الحركة المرورية‬
  29. 29. ‫مقارنة وفيات وإصابات حوادث الطرق في دولة الكويت عام‬ ‫1102 مع الجرائم ووفيات المخدرات‬‫‪Comparison of Road Fatalities and Injuries with Crime‬‬ ‫6188‬ ‫3913‬ ‫394‬ ‫84‬ ‫8‬ ‫61‬ ‫73‬ ‫جريمة قتل‬ ‫اطالق نار‬ ‫حريق عمد‬ ‫وفيات‬ ‫السرقات‬ ‫اصابات الطرق وفيات الطرق‬‫المصدر: وزارات الداخلية والصحة وجريدة القبس‬ ‫المخدرات‬ ‫(اإلسعاف)‬
  30. 30. ‫نسبة الزيادة في مؤشرات قطاع النقل خالل 2002-1102 في دولة‬‫‪Transport Indicators Growth‬‬ ‫الكويت‬ ‫002‬ ‫302‬ ‫371‬ ‫751‬ ‫941‬ ‫211‬ ‫311‬‫2.2 كم‬ ‫3.5‬ ‫الطرق‬ ‫الناتج المحلي‬ ‫الحوادث‬ ‫المصابين‬ ‫السكان‬ ‫المركبات‬ ‫رخص القيادة‬ ‫المخالفات‬ ‫الوفيات‬ ‫)1102(‬ ‫االجمالي‬ ‫)1102(‬ ‫)1102(‬
  31. 31. Fatalities : 2015 Goal in Lin with UN Recommendations& Current Trend ‫الوفيات الحالية وهدف عام 5102 في دولة الكويت‬ Base Year 494 460 447 410 407 374 322 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
  32. 32. Congestion ‫االزدحام‬Roads > 85% of Design Capacity
  33. 33. ‫خطة الحكومة‬ Government Action Plan• National Strategy – with goals, interagency indicators, and deadlines. .‫إعداد وتنفيذ إستراتيجية وطنية شاملة للمرور وقطاع النقل‬• Institutional Reform and Training. .‫تطوير مؤسسي وتأهيل الكوادر‬• Efficient Implementation Plan.• Evaluation and Monitoring System. .‫خطة تنفيذية فعالة خالل 0102-0202 وتقييم ومراقبة األداء المؤسسي‬• Build sustainable transport system and move away from traditional practice. .‫بناء نظام نقل مستدام مقبول اقتصاديا واجتماعيا وبيئيا وذو سالمة عالية‬• Ministerial Council Support (3 Resolutions). .‫دعم مجلس الوزراء الموقر‬
  34. 34. National Traffic and Transport Strategy Vision“Towards Sustainable and safe transport system for the currentand future generations in Kuwait”.‫تحقيق نظام نقل مستدام وسالمة مرورية عالية لألجيال الحالية والقادمة في دولة الكويت‬ Sustainability Productivity Integration Livability Management
  35. 35. Key Features of the National Traffic and Transport Strategy for Kuwait• Establishment of new transport authority and sector infrastructure.• Human resources development.• Transport – Land Use Planning.• Integrated Data system.• Road and Traffic Management – 1200 km new roads.• Public Transport – system and services, bus, metro, rail.• Freight Management.• Road Safety.• Intelligent Enforcement.• Behavioral Change.• Travel Demand Management.• Urbanization.• Emergency Service.• Climate and Vehicle Emissions.• Parking system.
  36. 36. • Minimize infrastructure costs• Generate employment• Minimize GHG emissions• Achieve better use of land and open spaces• Minimize Accident• Alleviate Congestion
  37. 37. ‫وزارة‬ ‫وزارة‬ ‫مجلس‬ ‫وزارة‬‫األشغال‬ ‫الداخلية‬ ‫الوزراء‬ ‫المواصالت‬ ‫البلدية‬‫العامة‬ ‫‪MOI‬‬ ‫الموقر‬ ‫‪MOC‬‬ ‫‪MOK‬‬‫‪MPW‬‬ ‫‪MC‬‬ ‫التخطيط‬ ‫‪Relevant Agencies‬‬ ‫وزارات‬ ‫‪SCPD‬‬ ‫الجهات التي تم شمولها‬ ‫الصحة‬ ‫وإدارة الفتوى‬ ‫‪MOH‬‬ ‫والتشريع‬ ‫باإلستراتيجية‬ ‫والتربية‬ ‫‪MOE‬‬ ‫البيئة‬ ‫القطاع الخاص‬ ‫جهات أخرى‬ ‫‪Environment‬‬ ‫‪Priv. Sector‬‬ ‫واإلطفاء‬ ‫والمجتمع المدني‬ ‫‪Fire‬‬
  38. 38. ‫عالقة اإلستراتيجية الوطنية ورؤية ”الكويت 5302“‬‫‪Strategy and‬‬‫‪Kuwait 2035 Vision‬‬ ‫كويت 5302‬ ‫5302 ‪Kuwait‬‬ ‫محاور اإلستراتيجية‬ ‫تخطيط النقل – المدن‬ ‫اإلستراتيجية‬ ‫هندسة المرور والطرق‬ ‫النقل الجماعي‬ ‫الوطنية‬ ‫شرطة المرور‬ ‫‪Ingredients‬‬ ‫‪National Strategy‬‬ ‫التطوير المؤسسي واإلدارة‬‫‪Capacity Building‬‬ ‫نظم المعلومات والبحوث‬‫‪Transport - Land Use Planning‬‬ ‫اإلسعاف والطوارئ‬‫‪Roads, Traffic and Public Transport‬‬ ‫الخدمات‬‫‪Traffic Police‬‬‫‪Ambulance and Emergency‬‬ ‫التعليم والتوعية المجتمعية‬‫‪Information and Research‬‬ ‫االزدحام وسالمة الطرق‬‫‪Education and Awareness‬‬ ‫حماية البيئة‬‫‪Sustainable Development‬‬ ‫التنمية المستدامة‬‫‪Negative Impacts‬‬‫‪Other Sectors‬‬ ‫عالقة مع القطاعات األخرى‬
  39. 39. ‫‪Action Plan‬‬ ‫الخطة التنفيذية‬‫0202-0102‬ ‫لإلستراتيجية الوطنية‬ ‫خطة بعيدة‬ ‫‪ Long‬المدى‬ ‫خطة متوسطة المدى‬ ‫المدى‬ ‫‪Medium‬‬ ‫خطة آنية‬ ‫‪Short‬‬
  40. 40. ‫‪Examples of the Projects‬‬ ‫أهم مشاريع الخطة التنفيذية‬ ‫لإلستراتيجية الوطنية‬
  41. 41. Integrated Transport Land Use Planning
  42. 42. ‫بناء قوة عمل وطنية‬ Building National Work Force500 Engineers and 3000 Police Officers by2015
  43. 43. ‫مشروع تصنيف‬ ‫الطرق‬ ‫‪Road‬‬ ‫‪Classifications‬‬ ‫الفوائد‬‫• تحسين نقل األفراد والبضائع‬ ‫• تقليل االزدحام‬ ‫• تحسين كفاءة شبكة الطرق‬ ‫• عزل النقل المحلي عن النقل‬ ‫على الطرق السريعة‬ ‫• تقليل حوادث الطرق‬‫• تطوير نظام مواقف السيارات‬
  44. 44. ‫مقترح حارة للمركبات التي تحمل أكثر من شخص‬ ‫‪TDM Proposal‬‬ ‫مركبة‬ ‫حافلة‬ ‫أجرة‬‫االزدحام والطرق التي زادت طاقتها االستيعابية على 58%‬
  45. 45. ‫بناء نظام توفير المعلومات الكترونيا للجهات المعنية‬ ‫‪On Line Information System For all‬‬ ‫متخذي القرار ‪Agencies‬‬ ‫الطوارئ‬‫المواقع الجغرافية‬ ‫الوزارات المعنية‬ ‫النقاط السوداء‬ ‫مكتب‬ ‫اإلستراتيجية‬‫خطوط النقل الجماعي‬ ‫الحركة المرورية‬ ‫‪Web Server‬‬ ‫الحوادث واالزدحام‬‫شبكات الطرق‬ ‫حدود السرعة‬ ‫المحافظات‬ ‫المعلومات االقتصادية‬ ‫واالجتماعية‬
  46. 46. ‫‪ GIS‬بناء نظام المعلومات الجغرافية في المرور والنقل‬ ‫اإلشارات الضوئية‬‫مواقف المركبات‬ ‫مواقف المركبات‬ ‫الطرق وحدود السرعة‬
  47. 47. ‫المباشرة بنظام النقاط السوداء الوطني : حوادث الدهس والمصابين‬ ‫المنقولين من قبل مراكز اإلسعاف إلى مستشفى مبارك 9002‬‫‪Black Spots‬‬ ‫مارينا مول‬‫محافظة حولي‬ ‫حوادث الدهس‬ ‫اإلصابات‬
  48. 48. ‫‪ Patrol System‬المباشرة بنظام معلومات الدوريات‬ ‫عدد المحافظات‬ ‫المناطق‬ ‫عدد المركبات‬ ‫عدد رجال الشرطة‬ ‫التاريخ‬ ‫الوقت‬ ‫الصبح‬ ‫الظهر‬ ‫الليل‬‫تفاصيل الدوريات‬ ‫حسب المحافظة‬ ‫العاصمة‬ ‫حولي‬ ‫الفروانية‬ ‫الصفحة‬ ‫الصففحة‬ ‫الخروج من‬ ‫الجهرة‬ ‫السابقة مبارك الكبير‬ ‫القادمةاالحمدي‬ ‫الخروج من‬ ‫الصفحة‬ ‫الصفحة‬
  49. 49. ‫دوريات مرور محافظة العاصمة‬ ‫فترة بعد اإلفطار‬‫‪Patrol Vehicles‬‬‫الطرق وحدود السرعة‬
  50. 50. ‫مثال على مشروع إدارة العمليات الميدانية‬ ‫ومراقبة حركة المركبات‬ ‫‪Tracking System‬‬ ‫إسعاف‬‫)1(‬
  51. 51. ‫مشروع إدارة حركة المرور واالزدحام‬ ‫‪Congestion and Transport Monitoring‬‬ ‫ازدحام عالي‬ ‫ازدحام متوسط‬ ‫اليوجد ازدحام‬‫‪Metro‬‬
  52. 52. Requirements of Sustainable TransportSystem ‫متطلبات قطاع النقل المستدام‬Integrated Transport Government Leadership ‫قيادة حكومية‬ Strategy Interagency Agency coordination ‫تعاون مؤسسي‬ Monitoring System ‫تقييم التنفيذ‬ ‫إستراتيجية شاملة لقطاع النقل‬ Efficient Action Plan Obvious role for each agency ‫دور واضح لكل مؤسسة‬ Deadlines ‫جدول زمني‬ ‫خطة تنفيذية فعالة‬ Efficient Institutions No conflict of activities ‫منع تشابك االختصاصات‬ Efficient Management ‫إدارة كفوءة‬ ‫مؤسسات كفوءة‬ Efficient Staff ‫كوادر كفوءة‬
  53. 53. Challenges Facing Implementation of TransitProjects ‫التحديات التي تواجه متخذي لقرار‬• Balance interest of the Government, Community, National Assembly, Private Sector, Investors and Users. ‫موازنة االهتمامات الحكومية والسياسية والمجتمعية ومتطلبات القطاع الخاص‬• Efficient and Comprehensive Feasibility Study. ‫دراسة جدوى شاملة‬• The unavailability of the expertise and staff shortage. ‫عدم وجود الخبرات‬• Need for efficient implementation and monitoring system . ‫الحاجة إلى إمكانيات تنفيذية‬• The relatively long implementation period of the project. ‫طول مدة التنفيذ‬• The required legislation for construction and operations. ‫الحاجة إلى القوانين‬• Potential construction impacts, e.g noise, congestion,.. ‫النتائج السلبية مثل التلوث‬• Need for efficient management team. ‫الحاجة إلى إدارة كفوءة‬