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Robert Sweeney, TASC post budget 2020 analysis 16 Oct 19

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Robert Sweeney (TASC) - brief presentation responding to aspects of Budget 2020

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Robert Sweeney, TASC post budget 2020 analysis 16 Oct 19

  1. 1. Post budget 2020 analysis Robert Sweeney
  2. 2. Storm clouds are gathering • No-deal Brexit • Overheating • Indebtedness • Corporate tax and fiscal policy
  3. 3. 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180.0 200.0 Gross debt 2018 (%GDP) Sources: Eurostat & CSO
  4. 4. 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 Interest payable 2018 (%GDP) Sources: Eurostat & CSO
  5. 5. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Interest payable (%GNI*) Sources: Eurostat & CSO
  6. 6. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Structure of taxation Corporation tax PRSI Income tax VAT Other Source: OECD
  7. 7. Structure of composition Total exc. CIT CIT Total exc. CIT % GNI* CIT % GNI* 2013 52938 4270 38.6 3.1 2014 57456 4614 38.6 3.1 2015 62244 6872 38.3 4.2 2016 65022 7351 37.0 4.2 2017 68399 8201 37.2 4.5 2018 73735 10385 37.3 5.3 Sources: Revenue & CSO
  8. 8. Extra revenue under different scenarios Constant % of GNI* (€bn) 40% GNI* in 2018 (€bn) 2013 - - 2014 0.0 0.4 2015 0.6 1.5 2016 2.9 4.2 2017 2.7 4.6 2018 2.6 5.2 Sources: Calculations based on Revenue & CSO
  9. 9. Conclusion • Scope for borrowing • Tax cuts in recent times have increased reliance on CIT

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