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ACCOUNTING FOR 
THE LONG TERM 
COSTS OF THE 
RECESSION 
IEA/ISI/HLEG Strategic Forum 
Rome, 22-23 September 2014 
Martine Durand, 
OECD Chief Statistician
Per capita GDP and household disposable income 
still below pre-crisis levels in Euro area, not in US 
US dollars at 2005 PPPs per capita, 2007=100 
OECD Euro area 
HDI GDP 
106 
104 
102 
100 
98 
96 
94 
Note: OECD National Accounts and OECD Economic Outlook No. 95. 
2 
US dollars at 2005 PPPs per capita, 2007=100 
106 
104 
102 
100 
98 
96 
94 
92 
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 
92 
United States 
HDI GDP 
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
But US household wealth well below 
pre-crisis levels 
Household net wealth, United States 
2001 = 100 
130 
120 
110 
100 
90 
80 
70 
60 
Median net wealth, al l families 
Mean net wealth, all families 
Mean net wealth, top wealth decile 
11.1* 
6.1* 
2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 
Source. Data from various waves of the Survey of Consumer Finances 
Note: * wealth to income ratio 
1.7* 
3
Inequalities in market income have increased 
significantly since the start of the crisis 
4
People’s life evaluations plummeted in some of 
the crisis-hit countries 
Life satisfaction 
Cantril ladder, mean score 
7.5 
7.0 
6.5 
6.0 
5.5 
5.0 
GRC ITA SPA 
Source: OECD calculations based on Gallup World Poll 
5 
4.5 
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Fixed investment has not recovered, with 
implications for potential output and economic 
capital 
6 
Trends in real gross fixed capital formation and GDP 
US dollars at 2005 PPPs per capita, 2007=100 
104 
100 
96 
92 
88 
84 
80 
OECD Euro area 
GDP Gross Fixed Investment 
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 
105 
100 
95 
90 
85 
80 
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 
Source: OECD National Accounts database http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/na-data-en ; OECD Economic Outlook N.95; OECD calculations. 
United States 
GDP Gross Fixed Investment
Youth have born the brunt of employment losses 
OECD average Q1 2008=100 
Source: OECD Labour Force Statistics database 
7 
106 
104 
102 
100 
98 
96 
94 
92 
90 
Youth (aged 15-24) 
Older workers (aged 55-64) 
Total
In crisis-hit countries, people have foregone 
medical treatment for financial reasons 
Medical treatment foregone 
Percentage of people reporting unmet medical needs for financial reasons 
PRT GRC ITA 
Source: European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) 
8 
7 
6 
5 
4 
3 
2 
1 
0 
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
People have relied more on informal solidarity… 
Informal support 
Percentage of people, OECD (selected countries), 2007=100 
Note: OECD average includes only countries for which a complete time series is available: Canada, Denmark, Italy, 
Mexico, Spain, Sweden, Turkey and the United Kingdom. 
Source: OECD calculations based on the Gallup World Poll 
9
…while trust in government has declined 
Percentage of people who declared they have confidence in their government 
10 
70 
60 
50 
40 
30 
20 
10 
GRC ITA PRT ESP 
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 
Source: Gallup World Poll

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  • 1. ACCOUNTING FOR THE LONG TERM COSTS OF THE RECESSION IEA/ISI/HLEG Strategic Forum Rome, 22-23 September 2014 Martine Durand, OECD Chief Statistician
  • 2. Per capita GDP and household disposable income still below pre-crisis levels in Euro area, not in US US dollars at 2005 PPPs per capita, 2007=100 OECD Euro area HDI GDP 106 104 102 100 98 96 94 Note: OECD National Accounts and OECD Economic Outlook No. 95. 2 US dollars at 2005 PPPs per capita, 2007=100 106 104 102 100 98 96 94 92 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 92 United States HDI GDP 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
  • 3. But US household wealth well below pre-crisis levels Household net wealth, United States 2001 = 100 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 Median net wealth, al l families Mean net wealth, all families Mean net wealth, top wealth decile 11.1* 6.1* 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 Source. Data from various waves of the Survey of Consumer Finances Note: * wealth to income ratio 1.7* 3
  • 4. Inequalities in market income have increased significantly since the start of the crisis 4
  • 5. People’s life evaluations plummeted in some of the crisis-hit countries Life satisfaction Cantril ladder, mean score 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 GRC ITA SPA Source: OECD calculations based on Gallup World Poll 5 4.5 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
  • 6. Fixed investment has not recovered, with implications for potential output and economic capital 6 Trends in real gross fixed capital formation and GDP US dollars at 2005 PPPs per capita, 2007=100 104 100 96 92 88 84 80 OECD Euro area GDP Gross Fixed Investment 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 105 100 95 90 85 80 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: OECD National Accounts database http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/na-data-en ; OECD Economic Outlook N.95; OECD calculations. United States GDP Gross Fixed Investment
  • 7. Youth have born the brunt of employment losses OECD average Q1 2008=100 Source: OECD Labour Force Statistics database 7 106 104 102 100 98 96 94 92 90 Youth (aged 15-24) Older workers (aged 55-64) Total
  • 8. In crisis-hit countries, people have foregone medical treatment for financial reasons Medical treatment foregone Percentage of people reporting unmet medical needs for financial reasons PRT GRC ITA Source: European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
  • 9. People have relied more on informal solidarity… Informal support Percentage of people, OECD (selected countries), 2007=100 Note: OECD average includes only countries for which a complete time series is available: Canada, Denmark, Italy, Mexico, Spain, Sweden, Turkey and the United Kingdom. Source: OECD calculations based on the Gallup World Poll 9
  • 10. …while trust in government has declined Percentage of people who declared they have confidence in their government 10 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 GRC ITA PRT ESP 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Gallup World Poll