Presentation at the HLEG thematic workshop on "Intra-generational and Inter-generational Sustainability", 22-23 September 2014, Rome, Italy, http://oe.cd/StrategicForum2014

1. ACCOUNTING FOR
THE LONG TERM
COSTS OF THE
RECESSION
IEA/ISI/HLEG Strategic Forum
Rome, 22-23 September 2014
Martine Durand,
OECD Chief Statistician

2. Per capita GDP and household disposable income
still below pre-crisis levels in Euro area, not in US
US dollars at 2005 PPPs per capita, 2007=100
OECD Euro area
HDI GDP
106
104
102
100
98
96
94
Note: OECD National Accounts and OECD Economic Outlook No. 95.
2
US dollars at 2005 PPPs per capita, 2007=100
106
104
102
100
98
96
94
92
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
92
United States
HDI GDP
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

3. But US household wealth well below
pre-crisis levels
Household net wealth, United States
2001 = 100
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
Median net wealth, al l families
Mean net wealth, all families
Mean net wealth, top wealth decile
11.1*
6.1*
2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
Source. Data from various waves of the Survey of Consumer Finances
Note: * wealth to income ratio
1.7*
3

4. Inequalities in market income have increased
significantly since the start of the crisis
4

5. People’s life evaluations plummeted in some of
the crisis-hit countries
Life satisfaction
Cantril ladder, mean score
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
GRC ITA SPA
Source: OECD calculations based on Gallup World Poll
5
4.5
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

6. Fixed investment has not recovered, with
implications for potential output and economic
capital
6
Trends in real gross fixed capital formation and GDP
US dollars at 2005 PPPs per capita, 2007=100
104
100
96
92
88
84
80
OECD Euro area
GDP Gross Fixed Investment
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
105
100
95
90
85
80
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: OECD National Accounts database http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/na-data-en ; OECD Economic Outlook N.95; OECD calculations.
United States
GDP Gross Fixed Investment

7. Youth have born the brunt of employment losses
OECD average Q1 2008=100
Source: OECD Labour Force Statistics database
7
106
104
102
100
98
96
94
92
90
Youth (aged 15-24)
Older workers (aged 55-64)
Total

8. In crisis-hit countries, people have foregone
medical treatment for financial reasons
Medical treatment foregone
Percentage of people reporting unmet medical needs for financial reasons
PRT GRC ITA
Source: European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC)
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

9. People have relied more on informal solidarity…
Informal support
Percentage of people, OECD (selected countries), 2007=100
Note: OECD average includes only countries for which a complete time series is available: Canada, Denmark, Italy,
Mexico, Spain, Sweden, Turkey and the United Kingdom.
Source: OECD calculations based on the Gallup World Poll
9

10. …while trust in government has declined
Percentage of people who declared they have confidence in their government
10
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
GRC ITA PRT ESP
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Gallup World Poll