Ganga Path Project (marine drive project) Patna ,Bihar .pdf
trendanalysis for mba management students
1.
2. • A trend analysis is an aspect of
technical analysis that tries to
predict the future movement of a
stock basedon past data.
• Trend analysis is based on the
idea that what has happened in
the past gives traders an idea of
what will happenin the future.
3. • Definition in concise oxford dictionary which is that a
trend is “a general direction andtendency”
• A trend analysis is a method of analysis that allows
traders to predict what will happen with a stock in the
future. Trend analysis is based on historical data about
the stock's performance given the overall trends of the
market and particular indicators within the market.
4. • A trader may be able to match purchases and sales of
particular stocks, maximizing his or her potential for profits.
• trend analysis establishes the pattern for elements in the
financial statement over a period and will give an indication
of grey areasin the financial statement.
• evaluate company performance over aperiod of time.
• Comparing one time period to another time period.
• Comparing one geographic areato another
• Making future projection.
• Comparing with otherorganizations.
5. ….
• TrendAnalysis is essential for afirm's competitive
intelligence program.
• Theability to accurately gauge customers'response to
changes in business and other environmental
parameters is apowerful competitive advantage.
• Trend Analysis Methods allow business users to make
analytical decisions about those business processes that
maximize revenuefrom corecustomers.
7. • Under this method, the values of atime series are
plotted on agraph paper in the form of ahistorigram.
For this, the time variable is shown on the horizontal
axis, the value variable on the vertical axis, and the dots
areplotted on the graph paper at the intersecting points
of the time and value variables. After this, acurve is
drawn with free hand through the plotted dots in sucha
manner that it represents the general tendency of the
time series, and eliminates all its other components viz:
seasonal, cyclical and irregularones.
8. • From the following data, fit afree hand smooth curve
and forecast the trend values thereby.
• Graphicrepresentation of the trend line relating to the
production of Peddy by the method of free hand curve.
9. • This method is sometimes employed when aline appears to
be aninadequate explanation of the trend.According to this
method, the original data are divided into two equal parts
and the values of each part are then summed up and
averaged.The average of eachpart iscentered in the period
of the time of the part from which it hasbeen calculated and
then plotted on agraph.Then astraight line is drawn to pass
through the plotted points. This line constitutes the semi-
average trend line.
• When the number of years is odd, the middle year is not
considered while dividing the data into two equal parts and
obtaining theaverage.
11. • In statistics a moving average (rolling average or
running average) is a calculation to analyze data points
by creating series of averages of different subsets of the
full data set. It is also called a moving mean (MM) or
rolling mean and is a type of finite impulse response
filter.
13. •Least square method.
• The least squares method is a form of mathematical
regression analysis that finds the line of best fit for a
dataset, providing a visual demonstration of the
relationship between the data points. Eachpoint of data
is representative of the relationship between a known
independent variable and an unknown dependent
variable.
14. Year PriceY X x2 XY yc = a+bx Inde
x
Value
1951 107 0 0 0 108+2*0 108
1952 110 1 1 110 108+2*1 110
1953 114 2 4 228 108+2*2 112
1954 114 3 9 342 108+2*3 114
1955 115 4 16 460 108+2*4 116
560 10 30 1140 560
• Linear least squares regression has earned its
place asthe primary tool for process modelling
because of its effectiveness and completeness.
