Though the worst intelligence failure, the USA took maximum advantage of the 9/11 tragedy and embarked on the mission to accomplish the objectives set forth in the infamous neo-con paper, known as the American Century. America employed all its -military, diplomatic and financial, to wage a war of terror on several countries besides Afghanistan-its starting point. Whether it was a stellar success or a dismal failure, it has cost the world massively in terms of loss of human lives, financial losses, refugees crises, missed opportunities, and surprisingly, increased global terrorism This presentation covers all these issues in greater detail

1. Shahid Hussain Raja
Consultant/Author/Trainer
Cambridge. UK
www.shahidhussainraja.com

2.  Introduction
 Background
 Aims and Objectives of War on Terror
 Views on War on Terror
 Dimensions of the War on Terror
 War on Terror; Stellar Success or Dismal Failure?
 Causes of American Failure in WOT
 Costs of War on Terror
 Consequences of War on Terror
 Conclusion

3.  Though the worst intelligence failure, USA took maximum advantage of
9/11 tragedy and embarked on the mission to accomplish the objectives
set forth in the infamous neo-con paper, known as the American
Century.
 America employed all its -military, diplomatic and financial, to wage a
war of terror on several countries besides Afghanistan-its starting point.
 Whether it was a stellar success or a dismal failure, it has cost the world
massively in terms of loss of human lives, financial losses, refugees
crises, missed opportunities and surprisingly, increased global terrorism
 This presentation covers all these issues in greater detail

4.  Generic name of global military, political, legal & conceptual struggle
against terrorist organizations/regimes accused of supporting them.
 War on Terror started after 9/11 terrorist attacks inside the USA,
 It officially finished when Osama was killed on 2nd May 2011.
However, Barak Obama announced its official termination in 2013
 He then directed the American security establishment to focus on
specific enemies as a series of persistent, targeted efforts to
dismantle specific networks of violent extremists

5.  War on Terror was launched to dismantle the terrorist network of Al
Qaida after they carried out a series of terrorist acts against US
interests. Bush administration defined the following objectives
1. Identify, locate, defeat and demolish terrorists organizations
2. Deny sponsorship, support and sanctuary to terrorists
3. Strengthen international effort to combat terrorism by force or by
capacity building of states facing terrorism and diminish the
underlying conditions that terrorists seek to exploit
4. Ensure the integrity, reliability, and availability of critical, physical,
and information-based infrastructures at home and abroad

6.  There are three views on War on Terror
◦ American state version: Just war to eliminate the sources of global
terrorism, carried out with cooperation of all countries
◦ Opponents’ views: 9/11 was just a hoax; or if did happen, then, it was
an inside job conducted by the CIA and Mossad to establish some
casus belli for implementing the Neo-Con agenda
◦ Skeptics’ reservations. 9/11 may or may not be an inside job but the
military-industrial complex used it brilliantly to advance their agenda

7.  Military Dimension: started with invasion of Afghanistan but
expanded to Iraq and covert operations in Libya, Syria and Yemen.
Now, no less than 76 countries involved in that global conflict
 Diplomatic Dimension: augmenting old alliances, expanding its
military spending, intelligence capabilities, expanded cooperation
with foreign intelligence agencies
 Domestic Dimension: new anti terrorism legislation, new security
institutions, the preventive detainment of thousands of suspects;
surveillance and intelligence-gathering programs,

8.  To the enthusiasts, it is stellar success for following
reasons
◦ ensuring security of the mainland USA
◦ dislodging the Taliban government which was accused of
harbouring the terrorists, particularly Osama bin Laden
◦ dismantled Al Qaida and uprooted their safe havens.
◦ arrest of hundreds of terrorist suspects around the world,
◦ increased global cooperation in global counter terrorism efforts
◦ crowning success-killed its master-mind, OBL in 2011

9.  However, to its opponents and critics, all the successes claimed are of
tactical nature and not of much significance in strategic sense.
 To them, there is no clear victory, rather USA is seen to be fighting an
endless war creating more terrorists than it has killed so far.
 To them the costs incurred in terms of human losses, financial
burden and infrastructural damage outweigh the gains
 Similarly, they argue, the unintended consequences of the War on
Terror are far more than the goals intended and achieved.

10.  Failure to understand Nature of War: equating a counter-terrorism/
insurgency war with fighting a conventional war, ignoring terrain,
tactics, logistics and public support advantages enjoyed by enemy
 Gung-ho Operation: carried it out without any proper planning and
effective strategy to cope once the initial objectives were achieved
 Half- hearted Attempts: far more troops and finances were required.
Troop levels in Afghanistan never approached that level. Instead,
those battle-hardened troops were sent to Iraq in 2003

11.  Post-operation Blunders: After the fall of Taliban government, USA
installed an overwhelmingly non-Pashtun government
 Inefficient and Corrupt Government: Afghan government could not
deliver security or delivery of basic services. Rampant corruption has
made the situation even worse
 Public Support for Taliban: Pashtun people are supporting the Taliban
not only out of fear but also for being more trustworthy as compared
to the present regime.

12.  Active Support of Russia: Now it is Russia’s turn to avenge their
defeat in Afghanistan, so giving maximum support to the Taliban,
 Active Support of Iran: Initially Iran was deadly against the Taliban but
now actively supporting Taleban for its own geopolitical objectives.
 Support of Pakistan: Taliban using Pakistan’s space for multiple
purposes-recruiting volunteers, collecting finances, taking refuge
 American Announcement to Withdraw: By Obama to withdraw,
invitation to Taliban for negotiations increased Taliban morale

13.  Human Losses: About 500,000 people have died violently in Pakistan,
Iraq and Afghanistan. It does not include all people who have died
indirectly as a result of war,
 Human Development Loss: Civil wars permanently reduce per capita
GDP of a country by about 10 to 15%.-Collier(2003)
 Financial Losses: damages to infrastructure in six Syrian cities at $7.2
billion at 2007 prices, or $41 billion at current prices.

14.  Human Development Loss: difficult to estimate. Millions of children
out of schools; lack of medical facilities, trauma.diseases
 Internally Displaced Persons and Refugees: Pakistan accommodating
nearly 2 million Afghan refugees, Iran one million. Similar in Syria;
 Human Rights Violations: Committed by all warring parties: blocked
access of humanitarian convoys, food, cut off water supplies
 Loss of Cultural Heritage: Wanton destruction of the cultural heritage
of Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan-all ancieny civilisations

15.  Spread of Terrorism: Scattered the al-Qaeda network, making it even
harder to counteract, also increased anti-Americanism among the
world’s Muslims, making recruitment of militants easy
 Emergence of Multi-polar World: God-send opportunity for the emerging
China and a re-surging Russia to change the global balance of power. It
pushed several countries towards Russian-Chinese nexus
 Decline of USA as Super Power: Several reasons for downfall of USA,
however, its misadventures in the name of War on Terror will be counted
as most prominent reasons for this downfall

16.  Increased Sectarian Threats: centuries old shia-sunni conflict has
increased in intensity by design as well as by default.
 Spreading Crime Wave: Resultant economic downturn caused by
conflict and sanctions led to increase in gun running, money
laundering, committing bank robberies, mercenaries used to settle
personal scores
 Spillover Effects: Arrival of war refugees in Europe leading to
xenophobic sentiments, rise of far right in several European
countries, weapons proliferation and arms race, return of footloose
Jihadists

17.  No doubt the War on Terrorism succeeded in its stated objectives of
dislodging of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan
 Similarly, it initially succeeded in dismantling of terrorist networks
and forced them to seek refuge in the mountains
 However, due to its incompetency handling the post-Taliban
Afghanistan, it got itself embroiled in a war which beyond the stated
objectives of the War on Terror
 There are no signs of any clear US victory; it is fighting losing battle
in Afghanistan, losing it for the same reasons it lost in Vietnam

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