On Sustainable Development Goals and Inclusion in Africa
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African Caucus Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt August 2018
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On Sustainable Development Goals and Inclusion in Africa
- 1. @wbg2030 worldbank.org/sdgs Meeting of the African Caucus August 6th 2018 Mahmoud Mohieldin Senior Vice President World Bank Group
- 2. Global Megatrends and Challenges Technological disruptions Shifts in the global economy Fragility and Violence Climate and resources Urbanization Source:WorldBank ForwardLook, September2017 Demographic transitions Renewed debate about globalization Commodity cycles
- 3. The world has experienced a demographic turning point Proportion of population living in urban areas, 1960-2011 55 60 65 70 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 World Percent of total population that is working age Four major demographic groups define population trends Demographic and urbanization trends pose opportunities and challenges Source: World Bank Global Monitoring Report, 2016 Source: World Bank Global Economic Prospects, 2018 Proportion of urban population living in slums, 1990-2010
- 4. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Africa World Population under age 15 Population over age 15 Over 40% of Africa’s population is under the age of 15 Source: staff calculations from World Bank WDI
- 5. The displacement crisis risks undoing hard- fought development achievements The global forcibly displaced population The crisis primarily affects the developing world Source: World Bank Global Economic Prospects, 2018Source: World Bank “Forcibly Displaced” Report, 2017
- 6. Climate change risks undoing development progress Process of integrating climate resilience into development Index of risk preparation across countriesGlobal disaster losses, 1980–2012 The number of disasters and losses has been rising. Development progress needs to integrate resilience to avoid undoing hard fought development gains Source: World Bank Building Resilience report, 2013
- 7. Commodity cycles exacerbate global economic volatility Commodity price indexes, annual Commodity price indexes, monthly Source: World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook, 2018
- 8. The current rate of technological advancement is unprecedented
- 9. 0 2 4 6 8 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 World Advanced economies EMDEs Percent Global Growth 0 1 2 3 4 5 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Trade Investment Percent Global trade and investment growth, volumes Global growth, trade, and investment flows Source: World Bank Global Economic Prospects, June 2018
- 10. The world’s economic center of gravity, 1980–2016, in black, at three-year intervals The economic center of gravity is shifting east 1980 1989 1998 2007 2016 2049 Source: Danny Quah, 2011 Source: McKinsey Global Institute, 2012 Evolution of the earth’s economic center of gravity: 1 CE to 2025
- 11. How did African countries fare on the MDGs? 11 71 13 35 8 40 17 67 10 38 2 6 3 15 15 67 4 36 7 11 2 8 3 12 5 10 6 18 2 9 0 3 5 5 3 7 5 7 2 4 7 11 7 7 7 16 6 23 5 11 1 2 2 7 1 2 9 13 7 17 6 11 12 37 9 28 10 20 6 12 0 14 21 27 19 52 17 40 5 28 17 34 33 77 33 88 18 40 35 58 7 27 7 33 10 25 12 22 0 2 0 2 1 8 7 19 8 23 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% AFR Developing Countries AFR Developing Countries AFR Developing Countries AFR Developing Countries AFR Developing Countries AFR Developing Countries AFR Developing Countries AFR Developing Countries AFR Developing CountriesMDG1.1- Extreme Poverty MDG1.9 Under- nourishme nt MDG2.1- Primary Completio n MDG3.1- Education Gender Parity MDG4.1- Under-5 Mortality MDG4.2- Infant Mortality MDG5.1- Maternal Mortality MDG7.8- Improved Water MDG7.9- Improved Sanitation Target Met Sufficient Progress Insufficient Progress Moderately Off Target Seriously Off Target Insufficient Data Source: Staff calculations from World Bank WDI, 2018
- 13. The SDGs present a major opportunity for transformation Global development agendas serve as a guide for countries to determine their national development path MDGs (2000-2015) SDGs (2016-2030) Goals/Targets/Indicators 8/21/60 17/169/~230 Priority Areas Human Development Holistic: Economic, Social, Environmental Scope Developing Countries Universal
- 14. Countries present their SDG implementation plans at the High Level Political Forum 0 5 10 15 Yes Some No Yes Concept No Budget in HLPF Incorp into natl budget Financing 0 2 4 6 8 Yes Concept No Yes Some No Integrate SDGs into nat'l monitoring Review of state of data Data Source: Preliminary staff analysis of 2016-2018 VNR country reports
- 15. 63% 38% 52% 88% 68% 87% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Basic water Basic sanitation Access to electricity SDG 6 SDG 7 SDGs 6 and 7 Africa World 39% 17.7% 33% 10.9% 10.7% 22% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Poverty headcount ratio - $1.90 Prevalence of undernourishment Prevalence of stunting SDG 1 SDG 2 SDGs 1 and 2 Africa World How are African countries progressing on the SDGs? Source: Staff calculations from World Bank WDI, 2018
- 16. Share of lives (and needs) at stake on each absolute indicator Top 5 country for relevant indicator Country is not in Top 5 Country is on track for SDG No data (P) Proxy target Extremepoverty Undernourishment Childobesity Stunting Wasting Maternalmortality Childmortality Familyplanning Primaryschool Pre-primary Violenceagainstwomen Genderequal.Inleadership(P) Water Sanitation Electricity Birthregistration Nigeria 25% 5% 5% - 10% 34% 30% 8% 3% 6% 6% 10% 7% 25% India - 26% 15% 33% 21% 3% - 20% - 41% 23% 25% 14% 26% - - Congo, Dem. Rep. 15% 2% 5% 3% 11% 12% 3% - 7% 2% 3% 10% 5% 15% 15% Pakistan - 6% <1% 6% 8% 1% 14% 5% 10% 2% 4% 4% 5% 2% - 10% China - 6% 12% 5% 3% - - 3% - - 12% 15% - 8% - Ethiopia - 4% 2% 6% 4% <1% <1% <1% 15% 2% 3% - 9% 6% 4% 15% Uganda 2% 6% 1% 2% <1% 2% - 1% 13% 4% <1% <1% 6% 3% 5% Indonesia - - 4% 3% 6% - - 3% - <1% 3% 3% - 2% - - United States - - 4% <1% <1% - - 3% 3% 2% 4% <1% <1% - - Bangladesh - 3% <1% 2% 3% - - 2% - 2% 3% 2% <1% 3% - 7% Mozambique 3% 1% 1% <1% <1% 2% <1% 1% 6% <1% <1% 2% 1% 4% Sudan 2% <1% 2% 2% 1% 3% 2% 9% <1% <1% <1% 2% 1% 5% - Brazil - - 4% <1% <1% - - 1% - 2% 4% - <1% - - Chad 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 4% <1% 4% <1% <1% 2% <1% 3% 3% Cote d'Ivoire <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 3% 1% 1% 2% <1% <1% 1% 1% 1% <1% Madagascar 5% 4% <1% 2% 3% <1% - 1% 2% 1% <1% <1% 2% 2% 4% <1% Malawi 2% 2% <1% <1% <1% 3% - - - <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% - Mexico - <1% 2% <1% <1% - - 2% - 3% 1% - - - - <1% Niger 2% <1% <1% 2% 3% 2% 3% <1% - 2% <1% <1% 3% 1% 5% - Somalia 2% <1% <1% 2% 2% 4% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% South Sudan 4% <1% <1% <1% 2% 1% <1% <1% <1% 2% Tanzania 2% 3% 1% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% - 3% 1% <1% 4% 3% 4% 6% Other countries 36% 33% 42% 26% 25% 27% 22% 40% 40% 26% 35% 32% 32% 24% 35% 19% Childrenoverweight Source: John McArthur Presentation to the World Bank, July 2018
- 17. Life-and-death targets: forty million lives at stake, cumulative 2018-2030 25.7 9.1 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Non-communicable disease (under 70) Children (under 5) Suicide Homicide (P) Maternal mortality Traffic deaths Millions of lives at stake Note: (P) = Proxy target Source: John McArthur Presentation to the World Bank, July 2018
- 18. Data availability is a challenge, even for Canada 0 5 10 15 20 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Seventy-eight of 169 SDG targets describe potentially assessable outcomes for Canada Quantified SDG target Canadian national target Proxy target Not able to assess Source: “Counting who gets Left Behind” Brookings report, 2018
- 19. What is really meant by “no one left behind”?
- 20. GINI index - Africa • A Gini index of 0 represents perfect equality • A GINI index of 100 implies perfect inequality • The more blue the color, the more unequal the country Source: Indexmundi, sourced from the World Bank, 2018
- 21. Financial inclusion enables people to better prepare for their futures and mitigate against unexpected shocks Source: The Global Findex Database 2017
- 22. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Africa World Financial inclusion Account, rural (% age 15+) Account, female (% age 15+) Account (% age 15+) Financial inclusion tends to be lower for women, people in rural areas, with less education, and outside formal labor markets Source: The Global Findex Database 2017
- 23. • SDG5: Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls • Gender is multidimensional: More than 600 Million Women in Africa (total population 1,2 billion) speaking up to 2,000 different native languages. • Maternal deaths in sub-Saharan Africa have fallen by 44 percent • African countries made significant progress increasing gender equality in primary enrolment Focus on Women in Africa Progress on many fronts
- 24. Despite these gains, African women continue to face some grim facts: Focus on Women in Africa ..but still a long way to go • Economic exclusion • Gender wage gaps • Fragility and armed conflicts • Gender-based violence (GBV)
- 25. Focus on Women in Africa ..but still a long way to go Source: SDG Atlas 2018
- 26. The Changing Wealth of Nations: Beyond GDP Measuring changes in wealth allows us to monitor the sustainability of development, an urgent concern for all countries, and a critical, yet- to-be-defined indicator for the SDGs Source: The Changing Wealth of Nations, World Bank, 2018
- 27. The Changing Wealth of Nations: Beyond GDP Regional Composition of Wealth, 1995 and 2014 Source: The Changing Wealth of Nations, World Bank, 2018
- 28. Global Losses in Wealth from Gender Inequality Source: World Bank report “Unrealized Potential: The High Cost Of Gender Inequality In Earnings”, 2018
- 29. Regional integration for Africa's economic transformation: Corridors, Convergence, Collective Action Source: “A Close Embrace” article by Vijay Pillai, 2018
- 30. • Africa Region’s Gender Innovation Lab (GIL) currently working on more than 40 impact evaluations in 20 countries across Sub- Saharan Africa; Engender IMPACT database compiles all gender-related impact evaluations led or supported byWBG. • 99% ofWorld Bank lending to African countries took gender into consideration. • Gender is a special theme of International Development Association (IDA) providing close to $50 billion in credits and grants to the poorest countries between 2011 and 2014— many of which are in Africa. World Bank’s work on gender
- 31. IDA18 Recognizing that closing gaps between women and men, boys and girls can help set low-income countries on a sustainable path toward more diversified economies, higher levels of productivity and better prospects for the next generation, IDA Deputies have made gender equality a Special Theme starting in IDA16. IDA16 • Established a monitoring framework to track basic “gender mainstreaming” and setting targets for country dialogue and specific sector strategies IDA17 • Comprehensive alignment of corporate processes, committing to specific initiatives – e.g. the development of a new corporate-wide Gender Strategy – and setting targets for deepened country dialogue IDA18 • Raises the bar by defining and adopting a set of commitments clustered around the Gender Strategy objectives that are operational, action-oriented and results- focused, and by working to accelerate progress Increasing Ambition
- 32. Strengthening country engagement Country level action has been strengthened to better support the implementation of the gender strategy. New platforms established Regional Gender Action Plans developed Gender tag Data and Evidence
- 33. The Human Capital Project Three main indicators, reflecting building blocks of the human capital: 1. Survival –Will kids born today survive to school age? 2. School – How much school will they complete and how much will they learn? 3. Health –Will kids leave school in good health and be ready for further learning and/or work? “How much human capital will a child born today acquire by the end of secondary school, given the risks to health, education and social protection that prevail in the country where she was born?”
- 34. Philippines Papua New Guinea Indonesia Cambodia Turkey Uzbekistan Ukraine Costa Rica Pakistan Jordan Kuwait Iraq UAE Tunisia Egypt Peru Jamaica Morocco Senegal Sierra Leone Georgia Lebanon Bhutan Ethiopia Kenya Malawi Lesotho Rwanda Saudi Arabia This is a tentative and evolving list of countries that have expressed interest early, pending confirmation requested this month from governments.
- 35. • Support from 14 governments; We-Fi already raised over $340 million • We-Fi recently announced its first round of funding; expected to mobilize over $1.6 billion in additional funding from an allocation of $120 million • Investing in people through nutrition, health care, quality education, jobs and skills helps build human capital The Women Entrepreneurs Finance Initiative (We-Fi)
- 36. • The objectives of the SDGs&Her initiative are to recognize women implementing the SDGs, including women business owners of microenterprises • The competition reached over 4000 women microentrepreneurs, over 1200 of whom submitted their entries • The top winners will be recognized at an event at the 2018 UN General Assembly High-Level Week in NewYork.
- 37. worldbankgroup.org/sdgs Follow us on twitter @WBG2030 Mahmoud-Mohieldin on @wbg2030 worldbank.org/sdgs Mahmoud Mohieldin Senior Vice President World Bank Group
Editor's Notes
- Pre-dividend: Lagging in human development outcomes Early-dividend: Job creation for rapidly growing share of working-age people, mostly youth Late-dividend: Populations beginning to age; potential slowdown in growth of labor supply Post-dividend: Adapting to aging to maintain living standards
- From 1980 to 2012, disaster-related losses amounted to US$3,800 billion worldwide (Figure A). Some 87% of these reported disasters (18,200 events), 74% of losses (US$2,800 billion) and 61% of lives lost (1.4 million in total) were caused by weather extremes (Munich Re 2013). Many countries with the highest projected future poverty risk are also the ones with the lowest level of current risk preparedness (World Bank 2013b; Shepherd et al. 2013), in terms of the proportion of their population projected to be living below US$1.25/day by 2030. The picture changes if one considers the sheer number of projected poor, as in that case several low-to-medium income countries—such as India and Pakistan—would also take prominence. A recent ODI report concludes that, without concerted action, some 325 million people could be living in the 45 countries most exposed to hazards by 2030, highlighting the close links between poverty, hazards and risk governance, and the need to integrate social protection into development strategies. The elements outlined in the “process of integrating climate resilience into development” often occur in parallel and in interactive ways. Most countries have started the process by strengthening institutions, identifying and assessing risks, and enhancing capacity and knowledge
- The experience of the past four years is a reminder of the urgent need for greater economic diversification and stronger monetary and fiscal policy frameworks in oil exporters.
- After reaching 3.1 percent in both 2017 and 2018, global growth is expected to decelerate over the next two years as global slack dissipates, major central banks remove policy accommodation, and the recovery in commodity exporters matures. Amid moderating international trade and tightening global financing conditions, growth in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) is projected to plateau, reaching 4.7 percent in 2019 and 2020, up from 4.5 percent in 2018.
- The region seems to have made slower progress on most of the goals, but it also made significant progress in absolute numbers. The maternal mortality ratio, for example, dropped from 831 / 100 thousand in 1990 to 473 / 100 thousand in 2015 in Africa. In the world, it dropped from 385 in 1990 to 216. Although countries in Africa may not have met the target of reducing maternal mortality by three quarters (3/4), in absolute numbers, that is 358 fewer women per 100 thousand to lose their lives from pregnancy or childbirth related causes. 1990: AFR: 831 World: 385 2015: AFR: 473 World: 216
- SDGs are a set of goals that UN member states negotiated and agreed to meeting by the year 2030. They succeed the MDGs Cross-cutting and integrated – so the point is that progress on one affects progress on others. And that they need to be approached in a holistic manner. Countries present their progress in VNRs
- SDGs are a set of goals that UN member states negotiated and agreed to meeting by the year 2030. They succeed the MDGs Cross-cutting and integrated – so the point is that progress on one affects progress on others. And that they need to be approached in a holistic manner. Countries present their progress in VNRs
- The HLPF is the primary UN mechanism for the follow up and review of SDG implementation. Financing: we looked into whether countries included an SDG budget in their HLPF. Only 1 country did. We also looked into whether countries internalized the SDGs and incorporated them into their national budget. Data: We looked into whether countries integrated the SDGs into their national monitoring frameworks. We also looked into whether they did a comprehensive internal review of the state of data and their statistical capacity. Please highlight that this is based on preliminary analysis by your staff, and excludes some countries (data category excludes French language reports)
- Highlight data challenges. The only goals with robust enough data for aggregation are the human dev ones: which comprised the MDGs. Poverty goal uses data from 2013 – that’s the most recent poverty data and even that has issues.
- Even 97 percent population coverage on an issue might first look like success, but it still implies a 3 percent shortfall, equivalent to more than a million Canadians.
- Even 97 percent population coverage on an issue might first look like success, but it still implies a 3 percent shortfall, equivalent to more than a million Canadians.
- Definition: Gini index measures the extent to which the distribution of income (or, in some cases, consumption expenditure) among individuals or households within an economy deviates from a perfectly equal distribution. A Lorenz curve plots the cumulative percentages of total income received against the cumulative number of recipients, starting with the poorest individual or household. The Gini index measures the area between the Lorenz curve and a hypothetical line of absolute equality, expressed as a percentage of the maximum area under the line. Thus a Gini index of 0 represents perfect equality, while an index of 100 implies perfect inequality. Description: The map below shows how GINI index (World Bank estimate) varies by country in Africa. The shade of the country corresponds to the magnitude of the indicator. The darker the shade, the higher the value. The country with the highest value in the region is South Africa, with a value of 63.40. The country with the lowest value in the region is Algeria, with a value of 27.60. Source: World Bank, Development Research Group. Data are based on primary household survey data obtained from government statistical agencies and World Bank country departments. For more information and methodology, please see PovcalNet
- The larger the circle, the more unbanked. The largest circle = 200 million Then 100 million Then 10 million Then 1 million
- Mobile banking can help boost access to finance, particularly for those in remote areas. Many countries have leapfrogged conventional banking with mobile banking and transactions
- Closing gender gaps help advance towards SDG5; sets countries on a sustainable path with diversified economies and higher levels of productivity Since 1990, maternal deaths in sub-Saharan Africa have fallen by 44 percent, yet Between 1990 and 2013, African countries made significant progress increasing gender equality in primary enrolment Compared to other regions, women in sub-Saharan Africa are very active in the labor force, especially as entrepreneurs More than 50 percent of Africa’s population is under 25 years of age. Katimou, a doctor, works in her vegetable garden on the weekends: Katimou Maga opted for a career in medicine, but since childhood she has cultivated a passion for gardening. She boasts an impressive CV. After years of working as a doctor, she was chosen by the government of Niger for the difficult job of evaluating the health impacts on the population of the hydroelectric dam at Kandadji (part of the ecosystem restoration program and development plan for the Niger Valley).
- Economic exclusion; financial systems that perpetuate their discrimination; limited participation in political and public life; lack of access to education and poor retention of girls in schools; exclusion of women from peace tables, are the major standing barriers to achieving gender equality in Africa. Gender wage gaps are prevalent in all countries, including IDA, but the variance is large: in Mozambique it is 39 percent, in Pakistan 45 percent, while in Côte d’Ivoire it is 61 percent. Due to the numerous armed conflicts (nearly half of the 42 ongoing conflicts are in the continent) – African women are in charge of the majority of households and are key food producers, and they represent more than 43 percent of the agricultural labor force. As per WB-UN report: As conflicts surge around the world, new approaches to prevention can save lives & money: up to $70 bln/yr Additionally, gender-based violence (GBV) is often exacerbated by conditions of conflict and violence
- The World Bank finds that gender gaps cause an average income loss of 15% in OECD countries, 40% of which is due to entrepreneurship gaps. The McKinsey Global Institute recently estimated that if women participated in the economy identically to men, with equal wages and labor force participation, it would add up to $28 billion to global GDP by 2025: a 26% increase over business as usual, equivalent to adding a new United States and China to the world economy. Globally, countries are losing $160 trillion in wealth because of differences in lifetime earnings between women and men, according to the WBG study, Unrealized Potential: The High Cost of Gender Inequality in Earnings. This amounts to an average of $23,620 for each person in the 141 countries studied.
- The World Bank released a new book The Changing Wealth of Nations 2018 which tracks the wealth of 141 countries between 1995 and 2014. The goal is to help governments plan for a more sustainable economic growth path. GDP and Wealth are complementary indicators that provide a fuller picture of economic well-being. A country’s comprehensive wealth includes all produced capital such as factories and roads; natural capital like forests and water; human capital, which leads to earnings; and net foreign assetsThe comprehensive wealth accounts provided in this book can primarily contribute to SDG 17, which aims to revitalize the global partnership for sustainable development. Under the systemic issues articulated in this goal, the wealth accounts contribute to (1) policy and institutional coherence, by providing a common and sound analytical framework for assessing sustainable development; and (2) the targets related to data, monitoring, and accountability.
- Trends by region and asset class: Figure 2.4 shows that the share of human capital in total wealth declined in East Asia, in large part because of the aging of the labor force. In Sub-Saharan Africa, the share of natural capital declined, in part as a result of a decline in the value of agricultural land, but also because of investments in education and growth of the labor force that led to a rising share of human capital. The large share of natural capital in the Middle East and North Africa reflects energy and mineral wealth; small increases in natural capital wealth in other regions are largely associated with energy and mineral wealth. Given the importance of natural capital for low-income and middle income countries, this investigation takes a closer look at this asset and how it has changed over time. Natural capital can itself be disaggregated into nonrenewables (fossil fuel energy and minerals) and renewables (agricultural land, forest, and protected areas), which pose quite different challenges for development (box 2.1). Some countries have met these challenges over time, while others have not. In 1995, 52 countries in our data set were classified as low income; 28 of these countries are now middle income. Of these 28 middle-income countries, the majority (23) were highly dependent on natural capital in 1995. More than half (15) were considered resource rich and managed their energy and mineral wealth to build a broader set of assets, joining the middle-income group of countries. Another 8 countries, including India, Kenya, Pakistan, and Senegal, were heavily dependent on agricultural land and forests (renewable natural capital), and have now built larger and more diverse portfolios of assets, especially human capital, but also infrastructure and other produced capital.
- With the recent agreement on the African Continental Free Trade Area, Africans have made a decisive choice to pursue the path towards one single continental market made up of 50 countries rather than 50 small and fragmented domestic markets. While there is much work to be done to operationalize the AfCFTA, the potential benefits are undeniably huge. The AfCFTA could create a single market of 1.2 billion people worth a combined GDP of $2.2 trillion! Based on current growth projections, the continent's economy could be larger than the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is today within a single generation. The World Bank remains an important player in supporting integration in the continent. The Bank's dedicated support for regional integration in Africa began in 2005 and lending commitments have now grown to $10 billion and significant results are being achieved. A new WBG Regional Integration Strategy for Africa was recently endorsed by the Board. The strategy proposes a significant change in the overall direction of Bank support with greater emphasis on tackling policy, regulatory and other hurdles to deepen integration, and promoting collective action. This will complement past and current regional infrastructure financing. Over the next three years, the World Bank will work towards adding $6-7 billion in new commitments focused on achieving the goals of the new strategy.
- The World Bank Group is committed to working with the public and private sector to advance gender equality and women’s agency globally by leveraging our lending, expertise, and convening power. World Bank’s 2012 World Development Report on Gender Equality and Development
- Japan’s UHC project Read literature to see link
- The stories of the winning women entrepreneurs (and many other notable entries) will be shared through partners’ social media and websites. The initiative was launched at the margins of the IMF-World Bank Group Spring Meetings, in April 2018