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Africa is Rising - Presentation at IMANI Ghana annual lecture -SYPALA 2015

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Africa is rising- where is the evidence? This presentation provides just that; evidence, to support the proposition that indeed, Africa has made progress, albeit more needs to be done several fronts. The text also focus on what the roe of entrepreneurship ought to be given the stark evidence of inequality and poverty that still pertains.

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Africa is Rising - Presentation at IMANI Ghana annual lecture -SYPALA 2015

  1. 1. Africa is Rising, Where is The Evidence? Effective Politics and Policy Making in the New Africa All rights reserved 2015 | Nkunimdini Asante-Antwi | Metis Decisions LLC
  2. 2. Africa is Rising Who are the key drivers and what can the laggards learn? What role for the African Entrepreneur?
  3. 3. A Broader View Fact Sheet  54 Countries – 2nd most populous after Asia (estimated at 1.1 billion)  Libya was the first to gain independence in 1951.  South Sudan was the last; on July 9, 2011 from another African country.  Home to world’s leading cocoa output (2/3 of global production)  30% of world’s mineral reserves.  Zimbabwe; 2nd largest platinum reserves.  2nd most widely spoken language is Arabic (100m+) …The Narrative
  4. 4. Africa’s Basket  In 2012, total GDP of Africa was $1.3trn, equating to 2.5% of world’s $54trn (source: Old Mutual Investment Group). GNI per capita; South Africa ($6,800), Nigeria ($2,850).  124 kWh per capita annually.  Africa’s poorest households are spending around $10 per kilowatt-hour on lighting—20 times more than Africa’s richest households. Compare, that to U.S where national average cost for electricity is $0.12 per kWh and in the United Kingdom is $0.15 per kWh (Africa Progress Panel).  Notwithstanding freedom and democracy, popular participation and social inclusion remain crucial policy imperatives. Trade & Investment Infrastructure Democracy & Governance B.R.I.C.S or B.R.I.N.C.S? 40% Business Constraint - Infrastructure
  5. 5. Governance Structures AMU/UMA CEN-SAD COMESA EAC CEEAC-ECCAS CEDEAO- ECOWAS IGAD 1. Africa Union – 8 Economic Regional Communities (REC) 2. African Development Bank (AfDB) 3. Civil Society Organizations such as; IMANI Ghana (Ghana), African Economic Research Consortium (Kenya), Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies (ACPSS) –Egypt, Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA) (Nigeria) etc. SADC Lagos Plan of Action 1980-2000
  6. 6. The Business Environment 4.5% Real GDP Growth Forecast 2015 (AfDB) 6.1 billion (70% of global population) to access SMART phones by 2020.
  7. 7. “ ” Behind every corrupt politician are 10-20 corrupt businessmen. - Mo Ibrahim Assessing Policy and Political Risks  Policy Discontinuation  Supply chain exposure; an emerging political risk for African entrepreneurs.  Political victimization.  Over-emphasis of FDIs at the expense of building local entrepreneurial capacity. Annual cost of corruption - A.U Study, 2002
  8. 8. “ ” Knowledge is power. Information is liberating. Education is the premise of progress, in every society, in every family. -Kofi Annan The Social Sector – Emerging Risks  Libya and Botswana leads Africa in Human Development Index (HDI) performance.  Rwanda, Burundi and South Africa ranks #7, #17 and #18 respectively on the Global Gender Gap Index Report, 2014, ahead of U.S.A and U.K  Language and culture continue to be a barrier to regional integration.  The teaching of critical thinking and problem-solving at all levels of the education ladder, particularly, tertiary, remains a key challenge to business growth and wealth-creation.
  9. 9. Socio-cultural Risk Indicators (SRIs) World University Rankings  No African University in first 200, not even South Africa.  Fudan University, China (193) and Lomonosov Moscow State University, Russia (196) all members of BRICS, are featured in same. (Source: Times Higher Education World University Ranking.) Human Development Index 2014 Countries Index Ranking Norway 0.944 1 Australia 0.933 2 Libya 0.784 55 Botswana 0.683 109 Egypt 0.682 110 U.K 0.7383 26 Last 18 countries all in Africa
  10. 10. OWNERSHIP STRUCTURES “ I’ve always said we must overcome our thinking of being the sole owner of our businesses, and that is one of the drawbacks of Ghanaian businesses.” -John Dramani Mahama (President, Ghana) Less than 15% are Limited Liability Over 60% - Sole Proprietorships Others 40% of GNP in low- income economies produced by informal sector (World Bank).
  11. 11. Economy Overview  Strategy & Structure  Average growth over last 10 years  Financial Intermediation  Infrastructure  Global trade balance  Frontier market debt finance Data Source: AfDB Statistics Dept. Euro Area 1.5%, 2015. IMF Japan 1.0%, 2015
  12. 12. Economy (Cont’d) Fiscal Performance -0.09 -4.4 -4 -5 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 Monetary Development  Ghana: Deposit/GDP increased from 20.7% in 2010 to 21.4% in 2011. Debit card usage (% age 15+) is 11.4%. DMB asset/GDP moved from 23.9% in 2010 to 23.1% in 2011.  South Africa: Deposit/GDP was 59.1% in 2011 from 59.2% prior year. Debit card usage (% age 15+) was 45.3% in 2011. DMB Asset/GDP inched downwards to 78.8% in 2011 from 82.5% in 2010. Cash Surplus/GDP (%) Data Source: Africa Devt. Indicators (ADI), IMF Data source: Global Financial Development Database (GFDD), IMF)
  13. 13. Equity & Debt Markets  South Africa: Mutual funds assets to GDP/ratio was 30.6% in 2011, down from 38.9% in 2010. Stock market capitalization to GDP ratio trended southwards from 200.9% in 2010 to 145.2% in 2011.  India: Mutual fund asset/GDP ratio (2010: 6.6%, 2011: 4.6%). Stock market capitalization/GDP ratio was down in 2011 (68.7%) from 82.8% in 2010.  Brazil: Mutual fund asset/GDP ratio (2010: 44.1%, 2011: 46.5%). Stock market capitalization/GDP ratio was down in 2011 (58.3%) from 67.1% in 2010.  Ghana: 2010: 9.5% 2011: 8.4% Data source: Global Financial Development Database (GFDD), IMF.
  14. 14. Technological Changes  Mobile subscriptions in Q1 2015 was 910million (Africa), according to Ericsson Mobility Report 2015. This includes 21 million new subscriptions. Africa, Asia and Middle East are expected to drive global growth going forward. Growth has been driven broadly by sector liberalization that has allowed competitiveness and investments in infrastructure by private actors. 2012: 14.6% | 2013: 16.9% | 2014: 19.2% Internet Users per 100 People Source: Internetworldstats.com High-speed broadband | Fibre & Wi-Fi Networks $500m E-commerce or M-commerce?
  15. 15. What Are the Lessons? Leaders and Laggards
  16. 16. Governance & Democracy Leader: Ghana or Botswana?  Increasing use of law courts to settle political disputes and protect human rights.  Strong and vibrant media with assertive civil society sector led by IMANI Ghana.  Botswana adjudged #1 Global Rule of Law Index according to World Justice Project (WJP). C.A.R – Laggard? “…the security situation [in CAR] remains volatile and clashes between anti-Balaka [militias] and ex-Séléka elements continue, while criminal activities aimed at, among other things, controlling the country’s natural resources are increasing.” -Ban Ki Moon (UN Sec Gen.)
  17. 17. Human Development Libya – Leader?  Ranks number 1 in Africa and # 55 globally on the 2014 Human Development Index.  Included in the High Human Development category with countries such as Russia, China and Brazil. Niger – Laggard?  Ranks last (187th) globally.  Included in Low Human Development category with countries such as Eritrea, Chad and Malawi. Source: Human Development Index, 2014.
  18. 18. Economic Growth Nigeria – Leader?  USD 568.5 billion GDP by year-end 2014, according to World Bank data, making Nigeria the 22nd biggest economy after Sweden.  The country’s GDP outstripped South Africa in 2014 to be the biggest in Africa, growing at 6.3% in 2014.  This notwithstanding unemployment is still high, estimated at 25.1% in 2014. Zimbabwe – Laggard?  Average real GDP growth over decade covering 2003-2013 was -1.6%.  Experienced strongest performance in 2010 (9.6%), slowing down to 6.0% in 2013.  High inflation Source: Global GDP Ranking, 2014. World Bank.
  19. 19. Technology South Africa – Leader?  Internet penetration was 49% in 2014, compared to 38% for Nigeria.  Estimated 133% mobile phone and 47% Smart phone penetration compared to 72% and 29% respectively for Nigeria on same metrics.  13% of age 15yrs+ used electronic platforms for payment in 2011 compared to SSA average of 2.1% same year. (GFFD) Sierra Leone – Laggard?  7.2% mobile penetration as at 2012 (least in Africa).  Only 1.7% of the country’s 5.7 million people use the Internet. Source: Internetworldstats.com
  20. 20. Financial Intermediation South Africa – Leader?  Highest DMB’s deposits/GDP ratio (59.1%) in 2011.  DMB’s asset/GDP ratio very high (82.5%, 2010), enabling big-ticket deal financing from domestic sources. Uganda – Laggard?  DMB’s asset/GDP ratio quite modest (19.1%, 2011)  Deposit/GDP ratio in 2010 was 16.7% while 2011 registered 17.8% Source: Global Financial Development Database (GFFD), World Bank
  21. 21. Ease of Doing Business Mauritius – Leader?  Aggressive reforms implemented to improve the ease of doing business. Score: 28 out of 189 economies surveyed by IFC.  5 procedures to start business in 6 days with cost 2.1% of per capita income.  4 documents to export goods in approx. 10 days. Cost per container; $675  5 documents with 9 days import turnaround time, costing $710 per container. Eritrea – Laggard?  Ranks as the most difficult place to do business (189th) across 189 economies survey by IFC in 2014.  It takes 13 procedures in 84 days with 41.5% of per capita income as cost to start a business.  It takes about 490 days and approx. 22.6% of claims sought to enforce contracts.  It takes an average of 54 days for import/export. Source: Doing Business Report 2015, IFC.
  22. 22. Globalizers and Localizers The Stark Evidence
  23. 23. Meet Eric Kinoti  Company: Shades Systems (EA) Limited  Founded: 2007  Sector: Light Manufacturing (Tents)  Role: Founder  Asset Size: Not Available  Annual Revenue: USD 1million  No. of Employees: 18 29yrs Kenyan “It was never easy, and it will never be easy to start up. I faced a lot of difficulties, so many hurdles and obstacles…but I was determined to make my dream a reality.”
  24. 24. Meet Bright Simons  Company: mPedigree Network  Founded: 2007 (Re-launched 2009)  Sector: Technology  Role: Founder and CEO  Asset Size: Not Available  Annual Revenue: Not Available  No. of Employees: Not Available  Some Key Clients: AstraZeneca, Sanofi, Tropical Cables Conductor Ltd. Ghana “…that experience opened my eyes to a whole new world of fighting the system—of being an activist. And this led directly to my becoming a technology innovator.”
  25. 25. Meet Patrick Ngowi  Company: Helvetic Group  Founded: 2007  Sector: Renewable Energy (Solar)  Role: Founder and CEO  Asset Size: USD 15million  Annual Revenue: USD 5m (2013)  No. of Employees: Not Available  Key Markets: Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi. 29yrs Tanzania “You should start small, with lean operations, and scale up as you go along. I started my solar company being the only employee, going on roof tops to install one solar panel at a time.”
  26. 26. Meet Tunde Kehinde  Company: Jumia Nigeria  Founded: 2012  Sector: Online Retail  Role: Co-founder (Resigned 2014)  Asset Size: Not Available  Annual Revenue: Not Available  No. of Employees: 1000+  Key Markets: Nigeria, Ghana, Egypt 31yrsNigeria
  27. 27. Meet Khaled Shady  Company: Mubser  Founded: 2013  Sector: Technology  Role: Founder  Asset Size: Not Available  Annual Revenue: Not Available  No. of Employees: Not Available 23yrsEgyptian “Mubser was our team’s graduation project and we decided to take it to the next level to make it a startup to support the millions of blind and visually impaired people.”
  28. 28. Meet Winifred Selby  Company: Ghana Bamboo Bikes Initiative / Afrocentric Bamboo Ltd  Founded: 2010  Sector: Light Manufacturing  Role: Co-founder  Asset Size: Not Available  Annual Revenue: Not Available  No. of Employees: Not  Key Markets: EU, U.S.A 20yrsGhana “Because we discovered that, there were many bamboo plants in Ghana people took for granted. So we wanted to add value to that to address the transport needs of people.”
  29. 29. Now, Meet Joshua… $3/day 30yrsPoor… Abasua Mountain  Farming  Tourist Support Services  Micro-trading
  30. 30. Meet David Too… Dropout 5yrs Child Laborer 21.8% Child Labour (5-17yrs) Source: GH Living Standards Survey 6
  31. 31. Finally, Meet Ama Akyea School Attendance Status (5-17yrs) Never Currently Used To Female 6.1 88.3 5.6 Rural 9.2 85.4 5.3 Urban 2.2 92.7 5.1 Alone 11yrs Broken Spirit Data Source: GLSS6 33% of 26million – 5-17yrs
  32. 32. The Role of African Entrepreneur Restoring Human Dignity South Africa Ave. unemployment last 15yrs 25.27%
  33. 33. Where Do We Start?  Empathy  Collaborations and Business Combinations  Formalization  Mentoring and Coaching  Long-term Investments  Scaling Globally  Collaborate with Higher Education  Responsive Regulation  Bridging Infrastructure Gap  Fiscal and Monetary Discipline  Institutional Strengthening  Tax Regime Rationalization Wave of the Future Mobile/Data “…value chain gaps persist in traditional sectors; agric and industry.” Personal Corporate Public Policy
  34. 34. The End Out of Darkness comes a great light Out of despair rises new hope Out of the concrete, the flower grows Out of stillness a wild wind blows Wisdom for the wise Poetry for the young Arise and take your place under the sun, Africa. Presented by Nkunimdini Asante-Antwi Founder, Metis Decisions LLC +233 505 767 865 +233 202 952 658 nkunimdini.antwi@metisdecisions.com

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