Learn all about the economic outlook from Sage Policy Group, Inc.'s presentation for Citrin Cooperman's October 19 event, Economic Summit: Planning Your Business for Tomorrow's Economy.

1. By: Anirban Basu
Sage Policy Group, Inc.
October 19th, 2017
Markets, He Wrote
On Behalf of
Economic Summit
Planning Your Business for Tomorrow’s Economy

2. Macro P.I.
(Just How Hairy is the
Global Situation?)
Photo: Flixter.com

3. 0.7%
2.1%
1.2%
2.6%
6.7%
6.8%
6.5%
1.8%
4.5%
2.6%
4.6%
2.2%
2.2%
3.0%
1.7%
1.5%
3.1%
1.5%
2.1%
1.6%
2.1%
2.2%
-6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%
Brazil
Mexico
Latin America & the Caribbean
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, & Pakistan
India (3)
China
Emerging & Developing Asia
Russia
Emerging & Developing Europe
Sub-Saharan Africa
Emerging Market & Developing Economies
United States
Australia
Canada
United Kingdom
Japan
Spain
Italy
Germany
France
Euro Area
Advanced Economies
Annual % Change
Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas
2017 Projected
Source: International Monetary Fund: World Economic Outlook Database, October 2017
2017 Proj. Global Output Growth: 3.6%
2016 Growth (Estimate)
World: 3.2% Euro Area: 1.8%
United States: 1.5% Japan: 1.0%

4. International Population Dynamics, 16 Largest Nations
Nation
Population (Millions)
% Change
2017 2050 Net Change
Nigeria 190.9 410.6 219.8 115.1%
Ethiopia 105.0 190.9 85.9 81.9%
Egypt 97.6 153.4 55.9 57.3%
Pakistan 197.0 306.9 109.9 55.8%
Philippines 104.9 151.3 46.4 44.2%
Mexico 129.2 164.3 35.1 27.2%
India 1,339.2 1,659.0 319.8 23.9%
Bangladesh 164.7 201.9 37.3 22.6%
Indonesia 264.0 321.6 57.6 21.8%
United States 324.5 389.6 65.1 20.1%
Vietnam 95.5 114.6 19.1 20.0%
Brazil 209.3 232.7 23.4 11.2%
China 1,409.5 1,364.5 -45.1 -3.2%
Germany 82.1 79.2 -2.9 -3.5%
Russian Federation 144.0 132.7 -11.3 -7.8%
Japan 127.5 108.8 -18.7 -14.7%
World 7.6 billion 9.8 billion 2.2 billion 29.4%
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA)/Population Division. World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision.
*For statistical purposes, the data for China do not include Hong Kong and Macao, Special
Administrative Regions (SAR) of China, and Taiwan Province of China.

5. Top 15 Bottom 15
Rank* Country Fertility
Rate
Rank* Country Fertility
Rate
1 Niger 7.29 187 Malta 1.42
2 Somalia 6.37 188 Italy 1.37
3 Dem. Rep. of the Congo 6.20 188 Slovak Republic 1.37
4 Mali 6.15 190 Mauritius 1.36
5 Chad 6.05 191 Cyprus 1.35
6 Burundi 5.78 192 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1.35
7 Angola 5.77 193 Poland 1.32
8 Uganda 5.68 193 Spain 1.32
9 Timor-Leste 5.62 195 Greece 1.30
10 Nigeria 5.59 196 Macao SAR, China 1.28
11 Gambia, The 5.49 197 Moldova 1.25
12 Burkina Faso 5.44 198 Singapore 1.24
13 Mozambique 5.31 199 Korea, Rep. 1.24
14 Tanzania 5.08 200 Portugal 1.23
15 Benin 5.05 201 Hong Kong SAR, China 1.20
Niamey Vice
(Fertility Rates by Country, 2015)
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators
*Rank among 201 countries for which data are available for the most recent year (2015)
**Total fertility rate represents the number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to live
to the end of her childbearing years and bear children in accordance with age-specific fertility rates of the
specified year.

6. Global Debt to Exacerbate Slow Growth?
Sources: 1. International Monetary Fund. October 2016. “World Economic Outlook: Subdued Demand: Symptoms and
Remedies.” 2. International Monetary Fund (IMF). October 2016. “Fiscal Monitor: Debt—Use It Wisely.”
• According to the IMF, global debt reached an all-time high
in 2015;
• At $152 trillion, global gross debt of the nonfinancial sector
now represents 225% of global GDP;
• About 2/3 of this debt is in the private sector;
• Current low nominal-growth environment is making
adjustment difficult, setting the stage for a “vicious
feedback loop” in which lower growth hampers
deleveraging and the debt overhang exacerbates the
slowdown.2
Note: The nonfinancial sector comprises the general government, nonfinancial firms,
and households. Gross debt represents the unconsolidated liabilities of the three.

7. Global Debt Reaches All Time Highs (IIF)
Sources: 1. Institute of International Finance (IFF), Global Debt Monitor. 2. Business Insider. 3. The Telegraph. 4. Reuters.
• According to the International Institute of Finance (IIF),
global debt has reached an all-time high in 2016;
• At $215 trillion, global debt—including household,
government, and corporate—now represents 325% of global
GDP;
• Last year the IMF warned of risks to the global economy:
• “sheer size of debt could set the stage for an unprecedented
private deleveraging process that could thwart the fragile
economic recovery”

8. $0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
Sep-01
Jan-02
May-02
Sep-02
Jan-03
May-03
Sep-03
Jan-04
May-04
Sep-04
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-05
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
May-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
May-17
Sep-17
$/Barrel
September 2017:
$49.88 /Barrel
NYMEX Crude Oil Future Prices in U.S. Dollars
September 2001 through September 2017
*Month of September = average of daily prices from 9/1-9/29
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

9. US$ Nominal
Base metals include aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc.
Precious metals include gold, platinum, and silver.
Base Metals
Iron Ore
Precious Metals
25
45
65
85
105
125
145
165
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
May-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
May-17
Sep-17
2010=100
Metal Price Indices
September 2007 through September 2017
Source: The World Bank

10. 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Oct-09
Feb-10
Jun-10
Oct-10
Feb-11
Jun-11
Oct-11
Feb-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Feb-13
Jun-13
Oct-13
Feb-14
Jun-14
Oct-14
Feb-15
Jun-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Jun-16
Oct-16
Feb-17
Jun-17
Oct-17
Jan. 4, 1985: 1,000
October 13th
1,485
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a measure of the price of shipping major raw
materials such as metals, grains, and fossil fuels by sea.
The BDI is a composite of 3 sub-indices, each covering a different carrier
size: Capesize, Panamax, and Supramax.
Baltic Dry Index
October 2009 through October 2017
Source: Quandl.com

11. USA CSI
Photo: AMCNetworks.com
(Commercial Situation Investigation)

12. Gross Domestic Product
1990Q2 through 2017Q2*
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1990Q2
1991Q1
1991Q4
1992Q3
1993Q2
1994Q1
1994Q4
1995Q3
1996Q2
1997Q1
1997Q4
1998Q3
1999Q2
2000Q1
2000Q4
2001Q3
2002Q2
2003Q1
2003Q4
2004Q3
2005Q2
2006Q1
2006Q4
2007Q3
2008Q2
2009Q1
2009Q4
2010Q3
2011Q2
2012Q1
2012Q4
2013Q3
2014Q2
2015Q1
2015Q4
2016Q3
2017Q2
%ChangefromPrecedingPeriod(SAAR)
2017Q2: +3.1%
*3rd(final) Estimate

13. Contributions to GDP Growth by Component
2016Q3 – 2017Q2*
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Personal
Consumption
Government
Spending
Net Exports Gross
Investment
1.92
0.09
0.36 0.40
1.99
0.03
-1.61
1.341.32
-0.11
0.22
-0.20
2.24
-0.03
0.21
0.64
SAAR(%)
2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2
2.8
1.8
1.2
3.1
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
GDP
PercentChangefromPrecedingPeriod(SAAR)
2017Q2: +3.1%
*3rd(final) Estimate

14. Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLS
September 2002 through September 2017
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
Sep-02
Jan-03
May-03
Sep-03
Jan-04
May-04
Sep-04
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-05
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
May-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
May-17
Sep-17
Thousands
September 2017:
-33K

15. National Nonfarm Employment
by Industry Sector
September 2016 v. September 2017
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
-79
21
53
60
83
117
149
184
189
472
528
-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Information
Government
Other Services
Mining and Logging
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Manufacturing
Financial Activities
Construction
Leisure and Hospitality
Education and Health Services
Professional and Business Services
Thousands, SA
All told 1,777K jobs gained

16. U.S. Employment to Population Ratio
September 2000 – September 2017
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Note: Civilian employment-population ratio, population 16 years and
over, seasonally adjusted (SA).
58.0
59.0
60.0
61.0
62.0
63.0
64.0
65.0
Sep-00
Mar-01
Sep-01
Mar-02
Sep-02
Mar-03
Sep-03
Mar-04
Sep-04
Mar-05
Sep-05
Mar-06
Sep-06
Mar-07
Sep-07
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-09
Sep-09
Mar-10
Sep-10
Mar-11
Sep-11
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Mar-16
Sep-16
Mar-17
Sep-17
September 2017:
60.4%

17. Connecticut Nonfarm Employment
by Industry Sector Groups (SA)
August 2016 v. August 2017 Absolute Change
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
-3,000
-1,400
-1,200
-900
-300
-100
800
2,400
2,800
3,300
3,600
-4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000
Government
Professional & Business Services
Construction
Information
Trade, Transportation & Utilities
Mining and Logging
Manufacturing
Financial Activities
Education & Health Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Other Services
CT Total:
+6.0K; +0.4%
US Total (SA):
+2,059K; +1.4%
*According to the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) series
CT added 32,801 jobs between August 2016 and August 2017.

18. Massachusetts Nonfarm Employment
by Industry Sector Groups (SA)
August 2016 v. August 2017 Absolute Change
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
-1,300
-900
100
400
1,000
2,200
3,400
5,500
7,600
16,800
22,600
-5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
Leisure and Hospitality
Manufacturing
Mining and Logging
Information
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Government
Construction
Financial Activities
Other Services
Professional and Business Services
Education and Health Services
MA Total:
+57.4K; +1.6%
US Total (SA):
+2,059K; +1.4%
*According to the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) series
MA added 62,584 jobs between August 2016 and August 2017.

19. -400
-300
2,400
2,600
2,600
3,800
6,700
8,800
14,000
23,200
-5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
Information
Manufacturing
Mining, Logging, and Construction
Trade, Transportation & Utilities
Government
Financial Activities
Leisure & Hospitality
Other Services
Professional & Business Services
Education & Health Services
Boston NECTA Total:
+63.4K; +2.3%
MA Total (SA):
+57.4K; +1.6%
US Total (SA):
+2,059K; +1.4%
Boston-Cambridge-Quincy MA-NH NECTA Nonfarm
Employment
by Industry Sector Groups (NSA)
August 2016 v. August 2017 Absolute Change
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

20. New Hampshire Nonfarm Employment
by Industry Sector Groups (SA)
August 2016 v. August 2017, Absolute Change
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
-600
-200
0
400
900
900
1,500
2,500
2,500
3,100
3,300
-1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Mining and Logging
Manufacturing
Financial Activities
Government
Other Services
Professional and Business Services
Education and Health Services
Construction
Leisure and Hospitality
NH Total:
+14.3K; +2.1%
US Total (SA):
+2,059K; +1.4%
*According to the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) series
NH added 3,514 jobs between August 2016 and August 2017.

21. Rhode Island Nonfarm Employment
by Industry Sector Groups (SA)
August 2016 v. August 2017, Absolute Change
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
-600
-500
-500
-400
0
100
400
800
2,600
3,200
4,200
-1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
Government
Information (NSA)
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Mining and Logging
Other Services
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Manufacturing
Education and Health Services
Construction
Leisure and Hospitality
RI Total:
+9.3K; +1.9%
US Total (SA):
+2,059K; +1.4%
*According to the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) series
RI added 9,700 jobs between August 2016 and August 2017.
**Employment figures for Rhode Island’s Information sector not available on a seasonally adjusted basis

22. RANK STATE % RANK STATE % RANK STATE %
1 NEVADA 3.0 18 CALIFORNIA 1.6 35 INDIANA 1.0
2 GEORGIA 2.7 18 KENTUCKY 1.6 35 OHIO 1.0
3 FLORIDA 2.6 18 MASSACHUSETTS 1.6 35 PENNSYLVANIA 1.0
3 UTAH 2.6 18 MONTANA 1.6 38 NEW JERSEY 0.9
5 TEXAS 2.5 18 NORTH CAROLINA 1.6 39 SOUTH DAKOTA 0.8
6 MARYLAND 2.3 23 MINNESOTA 1.5 40 DELAWARE 0.6
6 OREGON 2.3 23 VIRGINIA 1.5 40 HAWAII 0.6
8 IDAHO 2.2 25 ALABAMA 1.4 40 MISSISSIPPI 0.6
9 NEW HAMPSHIRE 2.1 25 MICHIGAN 1.4 40 VERMONT 0.6
9 WASHINGTON 2.1 25 NEW YORK 1.4 40 WISCONSIN 0.6
11 ARKANSAS 1.9 28 ARIZONA 1.3 45 CONNECTICUT 0.4
11 RHODE ISLAND 1.9 28 NEBRASKA 1.3 45 ILLINOIS 0.4
13 COLORADO 1.8 28 NORTH DAKOTA 1.3 45 MAINE 0.4
13 MISSOURI 1.8 31 LOUISIANA 1.2 48 ALASKA 0.1
13 TENNESSEE 1.8 31 OKLAHOMA 1.2 48 WEST VIRGINIA 0.1
16 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 1.7 33 IOWA 1.1 50 KANSAS -0.6
16 SOUTH CAROLINA 1.7 33 NEW MEXICO 1.1 51 WYOMING -0.9
Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA)
August 2016 v. August 2017 Percent Change
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change
Aug: +1.4% Sept: +1.2%

23. Rank MSA % Rank MSA %
1 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL MSA 3.3 13
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-
MD-WV MSA
2.1
2 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA MSA 3.2 14 Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO MSA 2.0
3 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL MSA 3.1 15
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
MSA
1.8
4 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA 2.8 15
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-
DE-MD MSA
1.8
5 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA MSA 2.7 15 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ MSA 1.8
6 Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC MSA 2.6 18 San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA MSA 1.7
7 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA MSA 2.5 19
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
MSA
1.5
7 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA MSA 2.5 20 Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD MSA 1.4
9
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach,
FL MSA
2.4 21 San Diego-Carlsbad, CA MSA 1.3
10
Boston-Cambridge-Nashua, MA-NH
Metro NECTA
2.3 22 St. Louis, MO-IL MSA 1.1
10 Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI MSA 2.3 23 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA MSA 0.6
10
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
MSA
2.3 24 Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI MSA 0.5
Employment Growth, 24 Largest Metros (NSA)
August 2016 v. August 2017 Percent Change
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES) Survey

24. Rank MSA UR Rank MSA UR
1 Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO MSA 2.2 10 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA MSA 4.2
2
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
MSA
3.4 14 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ MSA 4.3
3
Boston-Cambridge-Nashua, MA-NH
Metro NECTA
3.5 15 Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI MSA 4.4
4
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-
MD-WV MSA
3.7 16
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL
MSA
4.5
5 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL MSA 3.8 17 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA MSA 4.6
6 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA 3.9 18 San Diego-Carlsbad, CA MSA 4.7
6 San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA MSA 3.9 19
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
MSA
4.8
8 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL MSA 4.0 20 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA MSA 5.1
9 St. Louis, MO-IL MSA (1) 4.1 20
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-
DE-MD MSA
5.1
10 Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD MSA 4.2 22
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
MSA
5.2
10 Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC MSA 4.2 23 Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI MSA 5.3
10 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA MSA 4.2 24 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA MSA 6.2
Unemployment Rates, 24 Largest Metros (NSA)
August 2017
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 1. Area boundaries do not reflect official OMB definitions.
U.S. Unemployment Rate
Aug: 4.4% Sept: 4.2%

25. 21 Jump
Street
(And Other Addresses
of Interest)
Photo: TheMoveDatabase.org

26. 15-Year & 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
October 1995 through October 2017*
Source: Freddie Mac
*Week ending 10/12/2017
3.21%
3.91%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Oct-95
Apr-96
Oct-96
Apr-97
Oct-97
Apr-98
Oct-98
Apr-99
Oct-99
Apr-00
Oct-00
Apr-01
Oct-01
Apr-02
Oct-02
Apr-03
Oct-03
Apr-04
Oct-04
Apr-05
Oct-05
Apr-06
Oct-06
Apr-07
Oct-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
Oct-09
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Oct-11
Apr-12
Oct-12
Apr-13
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Oct-16
Apr-17
Oct-17
Rate
15-yr 30-yr

27. *NSA: not seasonally adjusted
U.S. Homeownership (NSA)
1980Q2-2017Q2
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
58%
60%
62%
64%
66%
68%
70%
1980Q2
1981Q2
1982Q2
1983Q2
1984Q2
1985Q2
1986Q2
1987Q2
1988Q2
1989Q2
1990Q2
1991Q2
1992Q2
1993Q2
1994Q2
1995Q2
1996Q2
1997Q2
1998Q2
1999Q2
2000Q2
2001Q2
2002Q2
2003Q2
2004Q2
2005Q2
2006Q2
2007Q2
2008Q2
2009Q2
2010Q2
2011Q2
2012Q2
2013Q2
2014Q2
2015Q2
2016Q2
2017Q2
2017Q2:
63.7%

28. $0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
Aug-93
Aug-94
Aug-95
Aug-96
Aug-97
Aug-98
Aug-99
Aug-00
Aug-01
Aug-02
Aug-03
Aug-04
Aug-05
Aug-06
Aug-07
Aug-08
Aug-09
Aug-10
Aug-11
Aug-12
Aug-13
Aug-14
Aug-15
Aug-16
Aug-17
$Billions(SAAR)
U.S. Private New Multifamily Construction
August 1993 through August 2017
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

29. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for Select Metros
July 2017, 12-Month Percentage Change
Source: Standard & Poor’s
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
3.3% 3.3%
3.9%
5.1% 5.3%
5.8% 6.1%
6.7% 6.8%
7.2% 7.3% 7.3% 7.4%
12-Month%Change

30. U.S. Single-Family Housing Starts
August 1999 through August 2017
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Aug-99
Feb-00
Aug-00
Feb-01
Aug-01
Feb-02
Aug-02
Feb-03
Aug-03
Feb-04
Aug-04
Feb-05
Aug-05
Feb-06
Aug-06
Feb-07
Aug-07
Feb-08
Aug-08
Feb-09
Aug-09
Feb-10
Aug-10
Feb-11
Aug-11
Feb-12
Aug-12
Feb-13
Aug-13
Feb-14
Aug-14
Feb-15
Aug-15
Feb-16
Aug-16
Feb-17
Aug-17
Thousands,SAAR
August 2017: 851K

31. National Nonresidential Construction Spending by Subsector
August 2014 v. August 2017
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
-23.7%
-20.9%
-16.8%
-10.3%
-8.4%
-4.5%
-3.3%
1.7%
4.4%
5.5%
5.9%
32.1%
36.7%
37.9%
52.5%
70.2%
-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Sewage and waste disposal
Conservation and development
Water supply
Public safety
Power
Religious
Highway and street
Transportation
Manufacturing
Health care
Educational
Commercial
Communication
Amusement and recreation
Office
Lodging
3-year % Change
Total Nonresidential
Construction:
+$57.16B; +9.0%

32. $0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Billionsof$US
Foreign investment
increases 85.1% in 2015
Cross-border investment remained elevated in 2016:
Although down relative to a record 2015, offshore investment
levels still exceeded the pre-2015 high in 2007.
Note: Among transactions larger than $5.0 million
Commercial/Multifamily Offshore Investment
Sales Volumes Reach New Heights in 2015/16
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle; Real Capital Analytics

33. 14.9%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016YTD
Foreign Participation as a % of
Total Office Volume
1.1%
1.1%
1.4%
1.6%
1.9%
2.1%
2.8%
4.8%
4.8%
5.6%
6.8%
7.1%
8.4%
45.5%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
San Diego
Philadelphia
Austin
Atlanta
Chicago
Northern New Jersey
Miami
Seattle-Bellevue
Los Angeles
Dallas-Fort Worth
Washington, DC
Boston
San Francisco
New York
Foreign Office Investment by Destination
Market (as a % of Total, 2016YTD)
Note: Among transactions larger than $5.0 million; includes all office markets which received > 1.0% of offshore capital.
Primary markets continue to capture the lion’s share of
inbound capital, receiving 78.2% of this capital YTD.
Foreign Office Investment Activity, as of 2016Q3
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle; Real Capital Analytics

34. Down to
“The Wire”
Photo: RecapGuide.com

35. Sales Growth by Type of Business
September 2016 v. September 2017*
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
-5.5%
-4.4%
0.1%
0.4%
1.1%
1.7%
2.7%
3.0%
4.0%
4.0%
9.2%
10.7%
11.4%
-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music Stores
Electronics & Appliance Stores
Miscellaneous Store Retailers
Health & Personal Care Stores
Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores
Furniture & Home Furn. Stores
Food Services & Drinking Places
Food & Beverage Stores
Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers
General Merchandise Stores
Internet, etc. Retailers
Building Material & Garden Supplies Dealers
Gasoline Stations
12-month % change
*September 2017 advanced estimate
Total Retail Sales: +4.4% YOY

36. U.S. Saving Rate, August 2005 – August 2017
(Savings as Percentage of Personal Disposable Income)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Aug-05
Dec-05
Apr-06
Aug-06
Dec-06
Apr-07
Aug-07
Dec-07
Apr-08
Aug-08
Dec-08
Apr-09
Aug-09
Dec-09
Apr-10
Aug-10
Dec-10
Apr-11
Aug-11
Dec-11
Apr-12
Aug-12
Dec-12
Apr-13
Aug-13
Dec-13
Apr-14
Aug-14
Dec-14
Apr-15
Aug-15
Dec-15
Apr-16
Aug-16
Dec-16
Apr-17
Aug-17
SavingsRate(%)
August 2017:
3.6%

37. U.S. Gross Private Domestic Investment (SAAR)
% Change from Previous Quarter, 2000Q2 – 2017Q2*
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
2000Q2
2000Q4
2001Q2
2001Q4
2002Q2
2002Q4
2003Q2
2003Q4
2004Q2
2004Q4
2005Q2
2005Q4
2006Q2
2006Q4
2007Q2
2007Q4
2008Q2
2008Q4
2009Q2
2009Q4
2010Q2
2010Q4
2011Q2
2011Q4
2012Q2
2012Q4
2013Q2
2013Q4
2014Q2
2014Q4
2015Q2
2015Q4
2016Q2
2016Q4
2017Q2
2017Q2:
+3.9%
*3rd(final) Estimate

38. Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators Index
August 2007 through August 2017
Source: Conference Board
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5% Aug-07
Feb-08
Aug-08
Feb-09
Aug-09
Feb-10
Aug-10
Feb-11
Aug-11
Feb-12
Aug-12
Feb-13
Aug-13
Feb-14
Aug-14
Feb-15
Aug-15
Feb-16
Aug-16
Feb-17
Aug-17
One-monthPercentChange
August 2017: 128.8
where 2010: 100

39. The Closer
Photo: Google
• There are indications of mini-bubbles
forming in commercial real estate,
particularly in office, lodging and
multifamily segments;
• There are also longer-term structural
considerations, including the national
debt and pending insolvencies of
Medicare and Social Security – the
longer-term outlook may be
deteriorating even as the short-run
improves;
• Momentum should see us through 2017,
but tighter monetary policy combined
with a heavy dose of political intrigue
could render 2018 different. By this time
in 2019/20, the economy could be in a
far different place and likely will be.
*Kyra Sedgwick as Brenda Leigh Johnson
• Global economy remains weak,
and correspondingly . . . ;
• Global money has continued to
pour into America in search of
yield and safety, including into
commercial real estate – that
was particularly true in 2015,
only a bit less true in 2016;
• Inflationary pressures are on
the rise – so, too, are interest
rates – eventually -- that could
begin to squeeze asset prices in
2017/18, triggering negative
wealth effects and sentiment in
the process;

40. Thank You
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