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Brazil – The Future is Arriving
Luiz Nelson Porto Araujo
São Paulo, October 27th, 2011
BDO Workshop
CONFIDENTIAL
2
Brazil and the World Economy
Recent Developments
Perspectives
Business Opportunities
3
Brazil and the World Economy
Recent Developments
Perspectives
Business Opportunities
4Source: Dani Rodrik e Arvind Subramanian (2003): The Primacy of Institutions; Delta analysis
Economic development
Integration
Institutions
Geography
Income
capacity to trade
natural
resources and
institutions
distance from
markets
Health of
population and
agricultural
productivity
demand
for good
institutions
efficiency and
dissemination of
technology
demand
for foreign
goods and
services
openness and transparency
property rights and
rule of law
5
Overview
• 8.5 million km2
• More than 5,500 cities
• 7,500 km coastline
• 84% of households in urban areas
Geography
• 190 million (census 2010)
• Growth rate: 12.3% over 2000
• Life expectancy: 72 years
• Poverty: 11% of population
Population
• Illiteracy rate: 11%
• 80% of households with water
• 90% of households with electricity
• Ranks 73rd (0.699) in UN’s HDI
Education and
living standards
• Labor force: 100 million
• Urban unemployment: 7,0%
Labor
• Public/private investments
• Main gaps: roads, railways, ports, airports
Infrastructure
Source: IBGE, Bacen; Delta analysis
6
Overview (cont.)
GDP growth
(% py)
Inflation rate
(% py)
Gov. surplus
(% GDP)
Interest on
debt (% GDP)
PSBR
(% GDP)
1995/1998 2,5 9,4 -0,2 6,0 6,2
1999/2002 2,1 8,8 3,2 7,3 4,1
2003/2006 3,5 6,4 3,6 7,3 3,7
2007/2009 3,6 4,9 3,0 5,6 2,6
Unemploym.
(%)
Poor
(% of pop)
Gini index Household
income
(R$ of 2009)
Years of
education
1995/1998 7,33 38,24 0,60 528,44 4,4
1999/2002 9,36 38,65 0,59 509,39 5,0
2003/2006 9,16 35,09 0,57 521,41 5,6
2007/2009 7,91 25,79 0,55 617,47 6,0
Source: IBGE, FGV, Bacen; Delta analysis
PSBR – Public Sector Borrowing Requirements is a measure of public setor deficit
Individuals in poverty refer to E class individals, whose total household income corresponds to R$ 705, at most, at 2009 prices, according to PNAD microdata
Gini index is a measure of inequality; upper bound is 1.0
7
Overview (cont.)
Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Paraguay
Peru
Uruguay
Venezuela
Area
million km2
Source: World Bank; Delta analysis
Ecuador
2,8
1,1
8,5
0,8
1,1
0,3
2
0,4
1,3
0,2
0,9
Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Ecuador
Mexico
Paraguay
Peru
Uruguay
Venezuela
8
Overview (cont.)
GDP PPP Inflation GDP growth Poverty Reserves
US$ billions % % % of pop US$ billions
Argentina 596,0 22,0 7,5 30,0 53,9
Bolivia 48,0 7,2 3,8 30,3 9,7
Brazil 2.194,0 4,9 7,5 26,0 290,4
Chile 260,0 1,7 5,3 11,5 26,1
Colombia 431,9 3,1 4,4 45,5 28,5
Ecuador 115,3 3,3 3,7 33,1 3,6
Mexico 1.560,0 4,1 5,0 18,2 116,4
Paraguay 33,3 7,2 14,5 18,8 4,1
Peru 276,9 1,5 8,7 34,8 44,1
Uruguay 48,4 6,9 8,5 20,9 7,7
Venezuela 344,2 29,8 -2,8 37,9 29,5
data for 2010
PPP – purchasing power parity
Inflation – consumer price
Population below poverty line
Source: United Nations, International Monetary Fund, Economic Commission for Latin America; Delta analysis
9
Economic powers – new and emerging
Source: NASA; Delta analysis
The economics of agglomeration and development
10
Economic powers – new and emerging (cont.)
Area Rank Population Rank GDP PPP Rank
thous km2 millions US$ billions
Russian Federation 17.075,2 1 138,8 9 1.477,0 6
Canada 9.984,7 2 34 37 1.335,0 15
United States 9.826,6 3 313,2 3 14.720,0 1
China 9.597,0 4 1.336,7 1 9.872,0 2
Brazil 8.512,0 5 203,4 5 2.194,0 7
Australia 7.686,9 6 21,8 55 889,6 17
India 3.287,6 7 1.189,2 2 4.046,0 4
Argentina 2.766,9 8 41,8 32 596,0 23
Kasakhstan 2.717,3 9 15,5 64 197,7 53
Sudan 2.505,8 10 45,1 29 98,8 70
population estimated for July 2011
PPP – purchasing power parity
Source: United Nations, International Monetary Fund, Economic Commission for Latin America; Delta analysis
11
Economic powers – new and emerging (cont.)
Source: World Bank, International Monetary Fund, Goldman & Sachs; Delta analysis
• By the year 2050, the E7, the world´s seven emerging
economies – China, India, Russia, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and
Turkey – will overtake the economies of the G7 – US, Japan,
Germany, UK, France, Italy and Canada
Size
• This will create exciting business and investment opportunities
across multiple markets, including consumer, agricultural,
industrial, banking and logistics
Opportunities
• In this scenario Latin America still faces significant economic
challenges: i) public governance, ii) social inclusion, iii)
infrastructure and iv) cost of doing business
Challenges
12
World crisis – challenges
Developed economies
• banking crisis
• employment
• confidence
BRICs
• exports
• growth and inflation
• international governance
Brazil and Latin America
• social inclusion
• infrastructure
• public governance
Source: Delta analysis
13
Global trends – risks and opportunities
Source: Monitor(2010): A Vision into the Future; Delta analysis
• The BRICs are receiving
significant attention
• Population aging
Demographics
Megacities
Societal values
Technology and Knowledge
• Each country will present
a unique set of
opportunities and risks
• Growing domestic
incomes, relative political
stability, and open foreign
investment environments
• Political and regulatory
risks will pose ongoing
challenges to foreign firms
14
Demographics – population
Population (millions) Population in 2050 (millions)
1950 1975 2007 Low Medium High
World 2.535 4.076 6.671 7.792 9.191 10.756
More developed regions 814 1.048 1.223 1.065 1.245 1.451
Less developed regions 1.722 3.028 5.448 6.727 7.946 9.306
Least developed countries 200 358 804 1.496 1.742 2.002
Other less developed countries 1.521 2.670 4.644 5.231 6.204 7.304
Africa 224 416 965 1.718 1.998 2.302
Asia 1.411 2.394 4.030 4.444 5.266 6.189
Europe 548 676 731 566 664 777
Latin America and the Caribbean 168 325 572 641 769 914
Northern America 172 243 339 382 445 517
Oceania 13 21 34 42 49 56
% of Latin America and the
Caribbean
6,8 8,0 8,6 8,2 8,4 8,5
Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2007). World Population Prospects: The 2006
Revision; Delta analysis
15
Demographics – income distribution
Source: United Nations, UNCTAD; Delta analysis
5%
26% up
to US$
30.000
53% up to US$
6.000
16% up to US$ 1.000
13%
45% up to
US$ 30.000
36% up to US$ 6.000
6% up to US$ 1.000
2007 2030
Population
6.7 billions
Population
8.5 billions
1.8
6.7
3.6
1.0
3.1
0.6
2.8
1.1
upper class
middle class
low income
class
poverty/extreme
poverty
GDP PPP per capita 2007
75 countries that represent 97% of the world´s GDP and 90% of world population
16
Megacities
10 Largest cities in 1900 (in Millions)
City, country Population
London, UK 56.5
New York, USA 4.2
Paris, France 3.3
Berlin, Germany 2.7
Chicago, USA 1.7
Vienna, Austria 1.7
Tokyo, Japan 1.5
St. Petersburg, Russia 1.4
Manchester, UK 1.4
Philadelphia, USA 1.4
10 Largest cities in 2015 (in Millions)
City, country Population
Tokyo, Japan 26.4
Mumbai, India 26.1
Lagos, Nigeria 23.2
Dhaka, Bangladesh 21.1
São Paulo, Brazil 20.4
Karachi, Pakistan 19.2
Mexico City, Mexico 19.2
New York, USA 17.4
Jakarta, Indonesia 17.3
Calcutta, India 17.3
Source: United Nations; Delta analysis
Americas Europe Asia Africa
17
• Criation of jobs and opportunites for
local residents
• Atraction and retention of
investments and capitalization of
competitive advantages
• Efficient environmental management
and optimization of growth
opportunities
• Sustainable fiscal management to
attract and retain talents (quality of
life and business)
Source: Delta analysis
Megacities (cont.)
18
Brazil and the World Economy
Recent Developments
Perspectives
Business Opportunities
19
Political environment
Source: Delta analysis
Military regime
1964-1985
• Military coup in
March
• Sucession of
militaries in the
presidency (five)
• No election for
president,
governors, and
mayors (state
capitals)
• Initial transition in
1974 – opposition
wins general
elections
Transition to democracy
1985-1995
• Smooth transition;
different than
Argentina and Chile
• José Sarney elected
president in 1985
• Fernando Collor
elected president in
1990; impeached
in 1992
• Itama Franco (vice-
president) took
office
• General elections –
no conflict
Democracy
1995-present
• Fernando Henrique
Cardoso elected
president in 1994;
reelected in 1998
• Luiz Inácio Lula da
Silva elected in
2002; reelected in
2006
• Dilma Roussef
elected presidente
in 2010
• General elections –
no conflict
20
Political environment (cont.)
Results and inaugural speech
• Dilma Rousseff, from the Labor Party (PT),
was elected president with 56% of valid
votes
• The runoff for several state elections also
took place: in the end, 16 out of 27 elected
state governors are from parties within the
PT's coalition. This adds to an already
favorable picture in Congress, where
support for Dilma is about 70% in both
houses
• Inaugural speech:
• fight inflation
• domestic economy
• social policies to end poverty and
homelessness
Votes in second round
Votes %
Dilma 55.745.867 56,0
Serra 43.707.472 44,0
Dilma Rousseff
José Serra
RR
RO
AM
AC
AP
PA
PI
MA
MT
MS
TO
DF
GO
CE
RN
PB
PE
AL
SE
BA
MG
ES
RJSP
PR
SC
RS
Total electors
135.804.433
Source: Tribunal Superior Eleitoral; Delta analysis
21
Economic environment
High GDP growth and
better income
distribution
Low interest rates
and public debt
Increase in public
and private
investments
Low and stable
inflation
Agenda
Source: Delta analysis
Economic agenda
• Local governments
have tried to
maintain a
credible economic
agenda, with a few
exceptions. The
challenges are
tremendous and
should not be
underestimated
• Sudden shifts in
the current
agenda are not
expected
22
Inflation
242,2
363,4
980,2
1.972,9
1.621,0
472,7
1.119,1
2.477,2
916,5
22,4
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1981 1985 1989 1993
Inflation rate – IPCA (%)
9,6
5,2
1,7
8,9
6,0
7,7
12,5
9,3
7,6
5,7
3,1
4,5
5,9
4,3
5,9
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1996 2000 2004 2008
Inflation rate – IPCA (%)
Source: IBGE; Delta analysis
Real Plan
23
GDP
14,7
5,7
1,4
5,4
3,3
1,5
2,0 2,3 2,6
2,0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
UnitedStates
China
India
Japan
Germany
Russia
Brazil
UnitedKingdon
France
Italy
GDP (US$ trill)
official exchange rate – 2010
14,7
9,9
4,0 4,3
3,0
2,2 2,2 2,2 2,2
1,8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
UnitedStates
China
India
Japan
Germany
Russia
Brazil
UnitedKingdon
France
Italy
GDP (US$ trill)
PPP – 2010
Source: World Bank, International Monetary Fund; Delta analysis
8th largest 7th largest
24
GDP (cont.)
3,1 2,7 1,9
0,0
-2,6
2,8 2,8 2,9
1,7 3,0 2,9
0,5
-4,1
1,7 1,6 1,8
0,8
3,4 2,7 1,0
-4,7
3,5 2,5 2,1
1,9 2,0 2,4
-1,2
-5,2
3,9 1,4 2,1
3,2 4,0
6,1 5,1
-0,2
7,5
4,5 4,1
6,4 8,2 8,5 5,2
-7,9
4,0 4,8 4,5
11,3 12,7 14,2
9,6 9,1 10,4
8,2 7,8
9,2 9,7 9,9
6,4 5,7
9,7 8,4 8,1
Brazil
Russia
India
China
US
Euro
Japan
Germany
2005 2007 2009 20122011201020082006
Source: IMF – WEO; Delta analysis
2005 2007 2009 20122011201020082006
25
GDP (cont.)
351
19
2.024
199
283
57
1.004
17
154
41
285
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Equator
Mexico
Paraguay
Peru
Uruguay
Venezuela
GDP (US$ bill)
official exchange rate – 2010
596
48
2.194
260
432
115
1.560
33
277
48
344
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Equator
Mexico
Paraguay
Peru
Uruguay
Venezuela
GDP (US$ bill)
PPP – 2010
Source: United Nations, International Monetary Fund, Economic Commission for Latin America; Delta analysis
26
GDP and investment
Source: IBGE; Delta analysis
2,7
1,1
5,7
3,2
4,0
6,1
5,1
-0,2
7,5
-1,0
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
8,0
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
GDP growth (%)
16,4
15,3
16,1
15,9
16,4
17,4
19,1
16,9
18,4
10,0
12,0
14,0
16,0
18,0
20,0
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Savings and investment (% GDP)
Gross savings
Gross investment
27
GDP and investment (cont.)
Source: IBGE; Delta analysis
12,8 12,4 13,1 12,8 13,0
14,1
15,0
11,8
14,6
16,4
18,0
3,6
2,8
3,0 3,2 3,4
3,3
4,2
4,8
5,0
5,0
5,2
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Investment (% of GDP)
Public
Private
1,1 1,1 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,1
1,4
1,9
2,2 2,3 2,4
0,6
0,3 0,5
0,7 0,7
0,8
0,9
1,1
1,1
1,2
1,3
1,5
1,2
1,2
1,1
1,3
1,4
1,8
1,8
1,7
1,6
1,6
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Investment (% GDP)
Local
Federal
SOE
28
13,1
27,6
5,1 8,1
56,8
42,6
16,3 14,6
8,7 7,1
GDP and population
Inequalities
• South/Southeast account for
73% of GDP and 57% of
populations
• Slow income level
convergence
• South/Southeast
• slower growth of GDP and
population
•North/Northeast/Middle-west
• new frontier
% of GDP
% of population
data for 2010; GDP per capita US$ 10.900
Source: IBGE; Delta analysis
122,6
111,6
133,3
47,5
63,0
Middle-west
South
Southeast
Northeast
North
% of GDP per capita
29
Productive structure
Natural resources
• Iron ore, manganese, bauxite, nickel, uranium, gemstones, oil, wood,
and aluminum
• 14% of world´s renewable fresh water
Agriculture
• 6% of GDP
• Coffee, soybeans, sugarcane, cocoa, rice, livestock, corn, oranges,
cotton, wheat, and tobacco
Industry
• 26% of GDP
• Steel, iron ore, coal, commercial aircraft, chemicals, petroleum,
machinery, motors, vehicles, auto parts, consumer durables, cement,
and lumber
Services
• 68% of GDP
• Mail, telecommunications, banking, transportation, commerce and
computing
Source: IBGE; Delta analysis
30
Employment
1.494
891
1.863 1.831
1.917
2.452
1.832
1.766
2.202
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Minister of Finance, Minister of Labor & Employment, RAIS, CAGED; Delta analysis
• Economic growth resurgence has contributed to the vigorous creation of new jobs
Net employment creation (1,000 jobs)
15 million formal jobs
31
Productivity
Growth rate of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) TFP relative to
United States
1981-1992 1993-2003 2004-2007 1981-2007 2007
United States 0,8 0,9 1,1 0,9 1,00
Brazil -3,6 -1,9 1,5 -2,1 0,63
Chile 0,4 1,4 1,7 1,0 0,86
South Korea 2,0 0,1 0,8 1,1 0,65
China 3,3 3,3 7,0 3,8 0,52
India 0,1 1,1 3,4 1,0 0,56
Source: Giambiagi and Porto (2011), Penn World Tables, Barro and Lee (2010); Delta analysis
TFP is the portion of output not explained by the amount of inputs
used in production. As such, its level is determined by how
efficiently and intensely the inputs are utilized in production
32
Middle class
• Since 2002, around 25 million Brazilians have moved to the middle of the social pyramid. For the
period between 2008 and 2010, the estimate is that the class C percentage of population will
increase 21.5%
Source: Fundação Getúlio Vargas, IBGE; Delta analysis
A/B class E classD classC class
2003
8%
37%
27%
28%
% of pop and million individuals
13
66
47
49
2009
% of pop and million individuals
11%
50%
24%
15%
20
95
44
29
2014
% of pop and million individuals
16%
56%
20%
8%
31
113
40
16
Lower limit Upper limit
A/B 4,854 upper
C 1,126 4,854
D 705 1,126
E 0 705
Profile of economic classes (at 2009 prices – in R$)
33
Firms
Source: companies, Economática; Delta analysis
68,1
73,8
23,3
34,6
21,8
8,2
61
77,4
32,3
99,2
56,7
55,7
14,7
27,7
18,4
7,1
51,5
59,5
29,2
96,5
Electric power
Commerce
Construction
Transportation
Auto & parts
Textile
Steel
Chemicals
Food & beverages
Telecom
20,1
32,5
58,6
24,8
18,6
16,1
18,3
30,0
10,5
2,8
19
14
13
11
10
9
9
8
6
6
sample of 168 firms; all had profits; 162 increased their profits
Gross revenues
R$ billions, 2010
EBITDA
R$ billions, 2010
# firms % change
2010-2009
34
Brazil and the World Economy
Recent Developments
Perspectives
Business Opportunities
35
Sustainable
development
strategy
Low and
stable
inflation
Social
inclusion
Public
governance
Income,
investment,
employment
growth
Sustainable development
Source: Delta analysis
• Credible
• Maintained for 16
years, with minor
adjustments
• Major achievements
in macroeconomic
and social
dimensions
• Structural reforms
are still needed: tax,
labor, and political
Strategy
36
Sustainable development (cont.)
Sustainable development
Economic policy
- inflation targeting
- floating exchange rate
- fiscal control
Social policy
- protection
- focalization
- efficiency
Regional policy
- incentives
- scale and scope
- relocation
• GDP growth and low inflation
• Infrastructure expansion and new development vectors
• Expansion of brazilian firms abroad
• Income distribuition and reduction of poverty
• Change in labor force – higher qualification
Expected results
(2011-2015)
• Good fundamentals
• Growth of production, employment and income
• Improvement in regulatory framework and risk mitigation
• Social inclusion and income transfer programs
Virtuous cycle
Source: Delta analysis
37
Social agenda
The social agenda is
managed by the
federal government,
with initiatives
throughout the
Executive
Education
Social
inclusion
Technology
Employment
Source: federal government; Delta analysis
Fundamentals
• Announced by former president Lula,
in 2007, the objectives of the social
agenda are:
• consolidate Social Policy as a
guaranty to citizen´s rights
• reduce social inequality
• integrate initiatives to promote
opportunities and emancipation of
poor families
• enhance and improve the
integration of inter governmental
agents, and articulate with States
and Cities
38
Competitiveness
Source: World Economic Forum; Delta analysis
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Institutions
Infrastructure
Macroeconomic
environment
Health and primary
education
Higher education
and training
Goods market
efficiency
Labor market
efficiency
Financial market
development
Technological
readiness
Market size
Business
sophistication
Innovation
Brazil
Efficiency-driven economies
Global competitiveness index
2010-2011
1
Transition
1-2
2
3
Factor driven
Efficiency driven
Brazil
Innovation driven
Transition
2-3
Stage of development
Overall rank – 58th
39
Innovation
Source: Delta analysis
Pillars for sustainable development
Priority for investment,
innovation &
competitiveness
Challenges: clean production;
competent labor force;
renewable energies; health;
urban infrastructure; e-gov
Industrial policy as a
permanent State policy
The need to strengthen intra-
State cooperation in industrial,
S&T, infrastructure and
education policies
Public-private interaction
Essential for success
Main challenge is to develop capacity for innovation and
competitiveness in the manufacturing industry, and promote
global presence of Brazilian companies (vs. significant challenge
due to exchange rate appreciation)
40
Brazil and the World Economy
Recent Developments
Perspectives
Business Opportunities
41
Social and economic dynamics
• Demographics
• Savings
• Employment
• Income
• Spending
• Social inclusion
Individuals
• Growth
• Investment
• Cash flow
• Operational costs
• Depreciation
• Taxes
Firms
Houses
Commerce
Leisure
Food
Offices
Health
Education
Infrastructure
Utilities
Urban mobility
Source: Delta analysis
42
Business climate
Vibrant financial markets with a full array of financial products and
services
Openness to Foreign Direct Investment (FDI); Brazil is the largest
recipient of FDI in Latin America and one of the top four in the world
Prudent monetary and fiscal policies, solid macroeconomic position
and controlled inflation
Domestic consumption-led growth
Booming middle class – better educated, more disposable income
and spending
Increasing demand for imports – consumption and investment goods
Source: Delta analysis
43
Business climate (cont.)
Growth and consumption
• Macroeconomic stability
• Growth led by domestic consumption and investiment
• Emerging middle class
Investment
• Gaps in infrastructure
• Higher demand for durable and non-durable goods
• Attraction of foreign investment
Demographics
• Changing structure
• Better educated
• Higher income per capita
Financial markets
• Consolidated
• Social inclusion
Source: Delta analysis
44Source: federal and local governments, companies; Delta analysis
Multiplier effects
• derived demand
• income and employment
• new frontiers
• new markets
• new clusters
• South/Southeast
• focus – scale and scope
• sectors – oil & gas,
education, agribusiness,
energy (including biomass),
construction
• North/Northeast/Middle-west
• Focus – frontier (new
industries)
• sectors – agribusiness,
retail, construction
pré-sal
energy
steel
sugar cane
ports
cattle
soybean
Regional development
SOUTH
MIDDLE-WEST
NORTH
NORTHEAST
SOUTHEAST
railroads
45
Clusters
Context for
firm strategy
and rivalry
Factor
conditions
Demand
conditions
(+) domestic credit
supply
(+) company spending
on R&D
(+) research
institutions
(-) education (math &
science)
(-) logistical
infrastructure
(+) sophisticated
corporate environment
(+) subsidies
(-) weak institutional
environment
(-) labor rigidity
(-) cumbersome and
distortive taxes
(+) large and growing
(-) inequality
(improving)
(-) low purchasing
power and consumer
base (improving)
(+) sophisticated
financial market
(+) availability of latest
technologies
(+) state of cluster
development
Related and
supporting
industries
Source: Delta analysis
46
Growth Acceleration Program 2
city
citizenship
housing
water and
energy
transport
energy
and pre-
sal
Source: federal government; Delta analysis
PAC 2
(2011-2014)
• PAC Cidade Melhor – major cities
challenges
• PAC Comunidade Cidadã – state
presence
• PAC Minha Casa Minha Vida –
housing deficit
• PAC Água e Luz Para Todos –
universalization
• PAC Transportes – expansion and
interconnection
• PAC Energia – renewable energy
and development of pre-sal
Planning
Investment
Development
47
World soccer cup 2014
States Cities
North AM Manaus,
Northeast CE, RN, PE e BA Fortaleza, Natal, Recife and
Salvador
Southeast MG, RJ e SP Belo Horizonte, Rio de Janeiro
and São Paulo
South PR e RS Curitiba and Porto Alegre
Middle-west MT Brasília and Cuiabá
Potential market – main drivers
• North: infrastructure (transport/energy),
housing
• Northeast: infrastructure
(transport/energy/telecom), industrial
location, housing
• Southeast: infrastructure
(transport/telecom), housing
• South: housing
• Middle-west: infrastructure
(transport/energy/telecom), housing
NORTHEASAT
SOUTHEASAT
MIDDLE-WEST
SOUTH
NORTH
Source: Delta analysis
48
Delta
49
• Founded in 2000, Delta is a firm with a very large experience and knowledge in economics and finance
• Delta offers sophisticated solutions in economics and finance for the infrastructure, services and industry
sectors. The difference in these solutions is the usage of theory/practice and analytics
• Delta provides consulting services in Local Develpment & Logistics, Strategy & Operations, Corporate Finance,
and Economic Regulation
Corporate Finance Economic Regulation
Local Development & Logistics Strategy & Operations
50
são paulo sp
fone +55 11 2667.3754
www.deltaef.com
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Brazil's Future Economic Rise

  • 1. 1 Brazil – The Future is Arriving Luiz Nelson Porto Araujo São Paulo, October 27th, 2011 BDO Workshop CONFIDENTIAL
  • 2. 2 Brazil and the World Economy Recent Developments Perspectives Business Opportunities
  • 3. 3 Brazil and the World Economy Recent Developments Perspectives Business Opportunities
  • 4. 4Source: Dani Rodrik e Arvind Subramanian (2003): The Primacy of Institutions; Delta analysis Economic development Integration Institutions Geography Income capacity to trade natural resources and institutions distance from markets Health of population and agricultural productivity demand for good institutions efficiency and dissemination of technology demand for foreign goods and services openness and transparency property rights and rule of law
  • 5. 5 Overview • 8.5 million km2 • More than 5,500 cities • 7,500 km coastline • 84% of households in urban areas Geography • 190 million (census 2010) • Growth rate: 12.3% over 2000 • Life expectancy: 72 years • Poverty: 11% of population Population • Illiteracy rate: 11% • 80% of households with water • 90% of households with electricity • Ranks 73rd (0.699) in UN’s HDI Education and living standards • Labor force: 100 million • Urban unemployment: 7,0% Labor • Public/private investments • Main gaps: roads, railways, ports, airports Infrastructure Source: IBGE, Bacen; Delta analysis
  • 6. 6 Overview (cont.) GDP growth (% py) Inflation rate (% py) Gov. surplus (% GDP) Interest on debt (% GDP) PSBR (% GDP) 1995/1998 2,5 9,4 -0,2 6,0 6,2 1999/2002 2,1 8,8 3,2 7,3 4,1 2003/2006 3,5 6,4 3,6 7,3 3,7 2007/2009 3,6 4,9 3,0 5,6 2,6 Unemploym. (%) Poor (% of pop) Gini index Household income (R$ of 2009) Years of education 1995/1998 7,33 38,24 0,60 528,44 4,4 1999/2002 9,36 38,65 0,59 509,39 5,0 2003/2006 9,16 35,09 0,57 521,41 5,6 2007/2009 7,91 25,79 0,55 617,47 6,0 Source: IBGE, FGV, Bacen; Delta analysis PSBR – Public Sector Borrowing Requirements is a measure of public setor deficit Individuals in poverty refer to E class individals, whose total household income corresponds to R$ 705, at most, at 2009 prices, according to PNAD microdata Gini index is a measure of inequality; upper bound is 1.0
  • 7. 7 Overview (cont.) Argentina Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Paraguay Peru Uruguay Venezuela Area million km2 Source: World Bank; Delta analysis Ecuador 2,8 1,1 8,5 0,8 1,1 0,3 2 0,4 1,3 0,2 0,9 Argentina Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Ecuador Mexico Paraguay Peru Uruguay Venezuela
  • 8. 8 Overview (cont.) GDP PPP Inflation GDP growth Poverty Reserves US$ billions % % % of pop US$ billions Argentina 596,0 22,0 7,5 30,0 53,9 Bolivia 48,0 7,2 3,8 30,3 9,7 Brazil 2.194,0 4,9 7,5 26,0 290,4 Chile 260,0 1,7 5,3 11,5 26,1 Colombia 431,9 3,1 4,4 45,5 28,5 Ecuador 115,3 3,3 3,7 33,1 3,6 Mexico 1.560,0 4,1 5,0 18,2 116,4 Paraguay 33,3 7,2 14,5 18,8 4,1 Peru 276,9 1,5 8,7 34,8 44,1 Uruguay 48,4 6,9 8,5 20,9 7,7 Venezuela 344,2 29,8 -2,8 37,9 29,5 data for 2010 PPP – purchasing power parity Inflation – consumer price Population below poverty line Source: United Nations, International Monetary Fund, Economic Commission for Latin America; Delta analysis
  • 9. 9 Economic powers – new and emerging Source: NASA; Delta analysis The economics of agglomeration and development
  • 10. 10 Economic powers – new and emerging (cont.) Area Rank Population Rank GDP PPP Rank thous km2 millions US$ billions Russian Federation 17.075,2 1 138,8 9 1.477,0 6 Canada 9.984,7 2 34 37 1.335,0 15 United States 9.826,6 3 313,2 3 14.720,0 1 China 9.597,0 4 1.336,7 1 9.872,0 2 Brazil 8.512,0 5 203,4 5 2.194,0 7 Australia 7.686,9 6 21,8 55 889,6 17 India 3.287,6 7 1.189,2 2 4.046,0 4 Argentina 2.766,9 8 41,8 32 596,0 23 Kasakhstan 2.717,3 9 15,5 64 197,7 53 Sudan 2.505,8 10 45,1 29 98,8 70 population estimated for July 2011 PPP – purchasing power parity Source: United Nations, International Monetary Fund, Economic Commission for Latin America; Delta analysis
  • 11. 11 Economic powers – new and emerging (cont.) Source: World Bank, International Monetary Fund, Goldman & Sachs; Delta analysis • By the year 2050, the E7, the world´s seven emerging economies – China, India, Russia, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey – will overtake the economies of the G7 – US, Japan, Germany, UK, France, Italy and Canada Size • This will create exciting business and investment opportunities across multiple markets, including consumer, agricultural, industrial, banking and logistics Opportunities • In this scenario Latin America still faces significant economic challenges: i) public governance, ii) social inclusion, iii) infrastructure and iv) cost of doing business Challenges
  • 12. 12 World crisis – challenges Developed economies • banking crisis • employment • confidence BRICs • exports • growth and inflation • international governance Brazil and Latin America • social inclusion • infrastructure • public governance Source: Delta analysis
  • 13. 13 Global trends – risks and opportunities Source: Monitor(2010): A Vision into the Future; Delta analysis • The BRICs are receiving significant attention • Population aging Demographics Megacities Societal values Technology and Knowledge • Each country will present a unique set of opportunities and risks • Growing domestic incomes, relative political stability, and open foreign investment environments • Political and regulatory risks will pose ongoing challenges to foreign firms
  • 14. 14 Demographics – population Population (millions) Population in 2050 (millions) 1950 1975 2007 Low Medium High World 2.535 4.076 6.671 7.792 9.191 10.756 More developed regions 814 1.048 1.223 1.065 1.245 1.451 Less developed regions 1.722 3.028 5.448 6.727 7.946 9.306 Least developed countries 200 358 804 1.496 1.742 2.002 Other less developed countries 1.521 2.670 4.644 5.231 6.204 7.304 Africa 224 416 965 1.718 1.998 2.302 Asia 1.411 2.394 4.030 4.444 5.266 6.189 Europe 548 676 731 566 664 777 Latin America and the Caribbean 168 325 572 641 769 914 Northern America 172 243 339 382 445 517 Oceania 13 21 34 42 49 56 % of Latin America and the Caribbean 6,8 8,0 8,6 8,2 8,4 8,5 Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2007). World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision; Delta analysis
  • 15. 15 Demographics – income distribution Source: United Nations, UNCTAD; Delta analysis 5% 26% up to US$ 30.000 53% up to US$ 6.000 16% up to US$ 1.000 13% 45% up to US$ 30.000 36% up to US$ 6.000 6% up to US$ 1.000 2007 2030 Population 6.7 billions Population 8.5 billions 1.8 6.7 3.6 1.0 3.1 0.6 2.8 1.1 upper class middle class low income class poverty/extreme poverty GDP PPP per capita 2007 75 countries that represent 97% of the world´s GDP and 90% of world population
  • 16. 16 Megacities 10 Largest cities in 1900 (in Millions) City, country Population London, UK 56.5 New York, USA 4.2 Paris, France 3.3 Berlin, Germany 2.7 Chicago, USA 1.7 Vienna, Austria 1.7 Tokyo, Japan 1.5 St. Petersburg, Russia 1.4 Manchester, UK 1.4 Philadelphia, USA 1.4 10 Largest cities in 2015 (in Millions) City, country Population Tokyo, Japan 26.4 Mumbai, India 26.1 Lagos, Nigeria 23.2 Dhaka, Bangladesh 21.1 São Paulo, Brazil 20.4 Karachi, Pakistan 19.2 Mexico City, Mexico 19.2 New York, USA 17.4 Jakarta, Indonesia 17.3 Calcutta, India 17.3 Source: United Nations; Delta analysis Americas Europe Asia Africa
  • 17. 17 • Criation of jobs and opportunites for local residents • Atraction and retention of investments and capitalization of competitive advantages • Efficient environmental management and optimization of growth opportunities • Sustainable fiscal management to attract and retain talents (quality of life and business) Source: Delta analysis Megacities (cont.)
  • 18. 18 Brazil and the World Economy Recent Developments Perspectives Business Opportunities
  • 19. 19 Political environment Source: Delta analysis Military regime 1964-1985 • Military coup in March • Sucession of militaries in the presidency (five) • No election for president, governors, and mayors (state capitals) • Initial transition in 1974 – opposition wins general elections Transition to democracy 1985-1995 • Smooth transition; different than Argentina and Chile • José Sarney elected president in 1985 • Fernando Collor elected president in 1990; impeached in 1992 • Itama Franco (vice- president) took office • General elections – no conflict Democracy 1995-present • Fernando Henrique Cardoso elected president in 1994; reelected in 1998 • Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva elected in 2002; reelected in 2006 • Dilma Roussef elected presidente in 2010 • General elections – no conflict
  • 20. 20 Political environment (cont.) Results and inaugural speech • Dilma Rousseff, from the Labor Party (PT), was elected president with 56% of valid votes • The runoff for several state elections also took place: in the end, 16 out of 27 elected state governors are from parties within the PT's coalition. This adds to an already favorable picture in Congress, where support for Dilma is about 70% in both houses • Inaugural speech: • fight inflation • domestic economy • social policies to end poverty and homelessness Votes in second round Votes % Dilma 55.745.867 56,0 Serra 43.707.472 44,0 Dilma Rousseff José Serra RR RO AM AC AP PA PI MA MT MS TO DF GO CE RN PB PE AL SE BA MG ES RJSP PR SC RS Total electors 135.804.433 Source: Tribunal Superior Eleitoral; Delta analysis
  • 21. 21 Economic environment High GDP growth and better income distribution Low interest rates and public debt Increase in public and private investments Low and stable inflation Agenda Source: Delta analysis Economic agenda • Local governments have tried to maintain a credible economic agenda, with a few exceptions. The challenges are tremendous and should not be underestimated • Sudden shifts in the current agenda are not expected
  • 22. 22 Inflation 242,2 363,4 980,2 1.972,9 1.621,0 472,7 1.119,1 2.477,2 916,5 22,4 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1981 1985 1989 1993 Inflation rate – IPCA (%) 9,6 5,2 1,7 8,9 6,0 7,7 12,5 9,3 7,6 5,7 3,1 4,5 5,9 4,3 5,9 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 1996 2000 2004 2008 Inflation rate – IPCA (%) Source: IBGE; Delta analysis Real Plan
  • 23. 23 GDP 14,7 5,7 1,4 5,4 3,3 1,5 2,0 2,3 2,6 2,0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 UnitedStates China India Japan Germany Russia Brazil UnitedKingdon France Italy GDP (US$ trill) official exchange rate – 2010 14,7 9,9 4,0 4,3 3,0 2,2 2,2 2,2 2,2 1,8 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 UnitedStates China India Japan Germany Russia Brazil UnitedKingdon France Italy GDP (US$ trill) PPP – 2010 Source: World Bank, International Monetary Fund; Delta analysis 8th largest 7th largest
  • 24. 24 GDP (cont.) 3,1 2,7 1,9 0,0 -2,6 2,8 2,8 2,9 1,7 3,0 2,9 0,5 -4,1 1,7 1,6 1,8 0,8 3,4 2,7 1,0 -4,7 3,5 2,5 2,1 1,9 2,0 2,4 -1,2 -5,2 3,9 1,4 2,1 3,2 4,0 6,1 5,1 -0,2 7,5 4,5 4,1 6,4 8,2 8,5 5,2 -7,9 4,0 4,8 4,5 11,3 12,7 14,2 9,6 9,1 10,4 8,2 7,8 9,2 9,7 9,9 6,4 5,7 9,7 8,4 8,1 Brazil Russia India China US Euro Japan Germany 2005 2007 2009 20122011201020082006 Source: IMF – WEO; Delta analysis 2005 2007 2009 20122011201020082006
  • 25. 25 GDP (cont.) 351 19 2.024 199 283 57 1.004 17 154 41 285 0 500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 Argentina Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Equator Mexico Paraguay Peru Uruguay Venezuela GDP (US$ bill) official exchange rate – 2010 596 48 2.194 260 432 115 1.560 33 277 48 344 0 500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 Argentina Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Equator Mexico Paraguay Peru Uruguay Venezuela GDP (US$ bill) PPP – 2010 Source: United Nations, International Monetary Fund, Economic Commission for Latin America; Delta analysis
  • 26. 26 GDP and investment Source: IBGE; Delta analysis 2,7 1,1 5,7 3,2 4,0 6,1 5,1 -0,2 7,5 -1,0 0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 5,0 6,0 7,0 8,0 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 GDP growth (%) 16,4 15,3 16,1 15,9 16,4 17,4 19,1 16,9 18,4 10,0 12,0 14,0 16,0 18,0 20,0 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Savings and investment (% GDP) Gross savings Gross investment
  • 27. 27 GDP and investment (cont.) Source: IBGE; Delta analysis 12,8 12,4 13,1 12,8 13,0 14,1 15,0 11,8 14,6 16,4 18,0 3,6 2,8 3,0 3,2 3,4 3,3 4,2 4,8 5,0 5,0 5,2 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Investment (% of GDP) Public Private 1,1 1,1 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,1 1,4 1,9 2,2 2,3 2,4 0,6 0,3 0,5 0,7 0,7 0,8 0,9 1,1 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,5 1,2 1,2 1,1 1,3 1,4 1,8 1,8 1,7 1,6 1,6 0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 5,0 6,0 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Investment (% GDP) Local Federal SOE
  • 28. 28 13,1 27,6 5,1 8,1 56,8 42,6 16,3 14,6 8,7 7,1 GDP and population Inequalities • South/Southeast account for 73% of GDP and 57% of populations • Slow income level convergence • South/Southeast • slower growth of GDP and population •North/Northeast/Middle-west • new frontier % of GDP % of population data for 2010; GDP per capita US$ 10.900 Source: IBGE; Delta analysis 122,6 111,6 133,3 47,5 63,0 Middle-west South Southeast Northeast North % of GDP per capita
  • 29. 29 Productive structure Natural resources • Iron ore, manganese, bauxite, nickel, uranium, gemstones, oil, wood, and aluminum • 14% of world´s renewable fresh water Agriculture • 6% of GDP • Coffee, soybeans, sugarcane, cocoa, rice, livestock, corn, oranges, cotton, wheat, and tobacco Industry • 26% of GDP • Steel, iron ore, coal, commercial aircraft, chemicals, petroleum, machinery, motors, vehicles, auto parts, consumer durables, cement, and lumber Services • 68% of GDP • Mail, telecommunications, banking, transportation, commerce and computing Source: IBGE; Delta analysis
  • 30. 30 Employment 1.494 891 1.863 1.831 1.917 2.452 1.832 1.766 2.202 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Minister of Finance, Minister of Labor & Employment, RAIS, CAGED; Delta analysis • Economic growth resurgence has contributed to the vigorous creation of new jobs Net employment creation (1,000 jobs) 15 million formal jobs
  • 31. 31 Productivity Growth rate of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) TFP relative to United States 1981-1992 1993-2003 2004-2007 1981-2007 2007 United States 0,8 0,9 1,1 0,9 1,00 Brazil -3,6 -1,9 1,5 -2,1 0,63 Chile 0,4 1,4 1,7 1,0 0,86 South Korea 2,0 0,1 0,8 1,1 0,65 China 3,3 3,3 7,0 3,8 0,52 India 0,1 1,1 3,4 1,0 0,56 Source: Giambiagi and Porto (2011), Penn World Tables, Barro and Lee (2010); Delta analysis TFP is the portion of output not explained by the amount of inputs used in production. As such, its level is determined by how efficiently and intensely the inputs are utilized in production
  • 32. 32 Middle class • Since 2002, around 25 million Brazilians have moved to the middle of the social pyramid. For the period between 2008 and 2010, the estimate is that the class C percentage of population will increase 21.5% Source: Fundação Getúlio Vargas, IBGE; Delta analysis A/B class E classD classC class 2003 8% 37% 27% 28% % of pop and million individuals 13 66 47 49 2009 % of pop and million individuals 11% 50% 24% 15% 20 95 44 29 2014 % of pop and million individuals 16% 56% 20% 8% 31 113 40 16 Lower limit Upper limit A/B 4,854 upper C 1,126 4,854 D 705 1,126 E 0 705 Profile of economic classes (at 2009 prices – in R$)
  • 33. 33 Firms Source: companies, Economática; Delta analysis 68,1 73,8 23,3 34,6 21,8 8,2 61 77,4 32,3 99,2 56,7 55,7 14,7 27,7 18,4 7,1 51,5 59,5 29,2 96,5 Electric power Commerce Construction Transportation Auto & parts Textile Steel Chemicals Food & beverages Telecom 20,1 32,5 58,6 24,8 18,6 16,1 18,3 30,0 10,5 2,8 19 14 13 11 10 9 9 8 6 6 sample of 168 firms; all had profits; 162 increased their profits Gross revenues R$ billions, 2010 EBITDA R$ billions, 2010 # firms % change 2010-2009
  • 34. 34 Brazil and the World Economy Recent Developments Perspectives Business Opportunities
  • 35. 35 Sustainable development strategy Low and stable inflation Social inclusion Public governance Income, investment, employment growth Sustainable development Source: Delta analysis • Credible • Maintained for 16 years, with minor adjustments • Major achievements in macroeconomic and social dimensions • Structural reforms are still needed: tax, labor, and political Strategy
  • 36. 36 Sustainable development (cont.) Sustainable development Economic policy - inflation targeting - floating exchange rate - fiscal control Social policy - protection - focalization - efficiency Regional policy - incentives - scale and scope - relocation • GDP growth and low inflation • Infrastructure expansion and new development vectors • Expansion of brazilian firms abroad • Income distribuition and reduction of poverty • Change in labor force – higher qualification Expected results (2011-2015) • Good fundamentals • Growth of production, employment and income • Improvement in regulatory framework and risk mitigation • Social inclusion and income transfer programs Virtuous cycle Source: Delta analysis
  • 37. 37 Social agenda The social agenda is managed by the federal government, with initiatives throughout the Executive Education Social inclusion Technology Employment Source: federal government; Delta analysis Fundamentals • Announced by former president Lula, in 2007, the objectives of the social agenda are: • consolidate Social Policy as a guaranty to citizen´s rights • reduce social inequality • integrate initiatives to promote opportunities and emancipation of poor families • enhance and improve the integration of inter governmental agents, and articulate with States and Cities
  • 38. 38 Competitiveness Source: World Economic Forum; Delta analysis 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Institutions Infrastructure Macroeconomic environment Health and primary education Higher education and training Goods market efficiency Labor market efficiency Financial market development Technological readiness Market size Business sophistication Innovation Brazil Efficiency-driven economies Global competitiveness index 2010-2011 1 Transition 1-2 2 3 Factor driven Efficiency driven Brazil Innovation driven Transition 2-3 Stage of development Overall rank – 58th
  • 39. 39 Innovation Source: Delta analysis Pillars for sustainable development Priority for investment, innovation & competitiveness Challenges: clean production; competent labor force; renewable energies; health; urban infrastructure; e-gov Industrial policy as a permanent State policy The need to strengthen intra- State cooperation in industrial, S&T, infrastructure and education policies Public-private interaction Essential for success Main challenge is to develop capacity for innovation and competitiveness in the manufacturing industry, and promote global presence of Brazilian companies (vs. significant challenge due to exchange rate appreciation)
  • 40. 40 Brazil and the World Economy Recent Developments Perspectives Business Opportunities
  • 41. 41 Social and economic dynamics • Demographics • Savings • Employment • Income • Spending • Social inclusion Individuals • Growth • Investment • Cash flow • Operational costs • Depreciation • Taxes Firms Houses Commerce Leisure Food Offices Health Education Infrastructure Utilities Urban mobility Source: Delta analysis
  • 42. 42 Business climate Vibrant financial markets with a full array of financial products and services Openness to Foreign Direct Investment (FDI); Brazil is the largest recipient of FDI in Latin America and one of the top four in the world Prudent monetary and fiscal policies, solid macroeconomic position and controlled inflation Domestic consumption-led growth Booming middle class – better educated, more disposable income and spending Increasing demand for imports – consumption and investment goods Source: Delta analysis
  • 43. 43 Business climate (cont.) Growth and consumption • Macroeconomic stability • Growth led by domestic consumption and investiment • Emerging middle class Investment • Gaps in infrastructure • Higher demand for durable and non-durable goods • Attraction of foreign investment Demographics • Changing structure • Better educated • Higher income per capita Financial markets • Consolidated • Social inclusion Source: Delta analysis
  • 44. 44Source: federal and local governments, companies; Delta analysis Multiplier effects • derived demand • income and employment • new frontiers • new markets • new clusters • South/Southeast • focus – scale and scope • sectors – oil & gas, education, agribusiness, energy (including biomass), construction • North/Northeast/Middle-west • Focus – frontier (new industries) • sectors – agribusiness, retail, construction pré-sal energy steel sugar cane ports cattle soybean Regional development SOUTH MIDDLE-WEST NORTH NORTHEAST SOUTHEAST railroads
  • 45. 45 Clusters Context for firm strategy and rivalry Factor conditions Demand conditions (+) domestic credit supply (+) company spending on R&D (+) research institutions (-) education (math & science) (-) logistical infrastructure (+) sophisticated corporate environment (+) subsidies (-) weak institutional environment (-) labor rigidity (-) cumbersome and distortive taxes (+) large and growing (-) inequality (improving) (-) low purchasing power and consumer base (improving) (+) sophisticated financial market (+) availability of latest technologies (+) state of cluster development Related and supporting industries Source: Delta analysis
  • 46. 46 Growth Acceleration Program 2 city citizenship housing water and energy transport energy and pre- sal Source: federal government; Delta analysis PAC 2 (2011-2014) • PAC Cidade Melhor – major cities challenges • PAC Comunidade Cidadã – state presence • PAC Minha Casa Minha Vida – housing deficit • PAC Água e Luz Para Todos – universalization • PAC Transportes – expansion and interconnection • PAC Energia – renewable energy and development of pre-sal Planning Investment Development
  • 47. 47 World soccer cup 2014 States Cities North AM Manaus, Northeast CE, RN, PE e BA Fortaleza, Natal, Recife and Salvador Southeast MG, RJ e SP Belo Horizonte, Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo South PR e RS Curitiba and Porto Alegre Middle-west MT Brasília and Cuiabá Potential market – main drivers • North: infrastructure (transport/energy), housing • Northeast: infrastructure (transport/energy/telecom), industrial location, housing • Southeast: infrastructure (transport/telecom), housing • South: housing • Middle-west: infrastructure (transport/energy/telecom), housing NORTHEASAT SOUTHEASAT MIDDLE-WEST SOUTH NORTH Source: Delta analysis
  • 49. 49 • Founded in 2000, Delta is a firm with a very large experience and knowledge in economics and finance • Delta offers sophisticated solutions in economics and finance for the infrastructure, services and industry sectors. The difference in these solutions is the usage of theory/practice and analytics • Delta provides consulting services in Local Develpment & Logistics, Strategy & Operations, Corporate Finance, and Economic Regulation Corporate Finance Economic Regulation Local Development & Logistics Strategy & Operations
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