Diets Change & Poverty reduction

1. Agriculture, Food Systems & Poverty
Reduction in sub-Sahara Africa:
Urban Diet Transitions & Sustainable Food Systems
Ruerd Ruben
LEI - Wageningen UR

2. Key Messages
1. Delayed global transformation hinders market development
 food expenditures & import dependency
2. Rapid demographic growth & urbanization
 Dietary transition & Double burden of maltnutrition
3. Supermarket expansion & procurement regimes
 Outsourcing from agro-enterpreneurs
4. How to overcome agricultural stagnation?
 Focus on risks, governance & labour productivity

3. Africa in the World
Indicator Share
Population (2015) 18%
Population (2050) 25%
Production (2014) 5.5%
World trade (2014) 3%
Regional trade (share of total trade) 11%
Foreign Investments (2014) 4%
Energy production (2013) 3%
Education (enrolment rate) 77 %
Health workers 2%
People with HIV 71%

4. African economic growth
But : Slow down from 7-8% (2001-10) to 3-4 % (2015)

5. SSA: Poverty declines faster than hunger
Steady declining (relative) poverty:
47% (1990)  36% (2015)
But: absolute number of poor increased
280M (1990)  330M (2012)
Child mortality halved (1995-2015)
Slower decline in (child) malnutrition
High stunting (32%) & wasting (8-10%)
Grower overweight (+6 %) & obesity
Hunger & Undernutrition (1990-2015)
Number (left axis)

6. SSA: Production & Employment Shares
Agriculture Industry/mining Market Services Non-market services

7. Africa’s manufacturing
Absolute growth (ODI) Relative decline (WIDER)
Worldbank (WDR):
● Africa is de-industrializing ….
● Economic growth based on expansion of services sector
● Investments are increasingly financed with debt finance
($1 billion (2009)  $18 billion (2014)

8. Diverging growth paths

9. Urbanization Trends
UN: By 2050, two out
of every three
Africans will live in
metropolitan areas

10. Demographic Transition & Population Structure
SSA: Demographic Window  high share of young
working age population

11. Rising Middle class
AfDB (4-20$ pc): 34% (350m)
WB (>15$ pc) : 14 %

12. Food expenditures
Market provides 2/3 of food supplies

13. Supermarket Expansion
Processed foods account for 39% of food consumption (2010)
Post-harvest segment receives highest Value Added share

14. Selected crops: Production &
Consumption trends (2013  2023)
Dietary Change:
increases in F&V, Dairy, Poultry & Pork , Fish + Sugar & Fat

15. Food Availability & Imports
FAO Food Ballance Sheet : 20 % of calories are imported

16. Food imports
75 % of imports from outside SSA Region

17. Regional trade barriers & Infrastructure gaps

18. SSA Crop yields (1963-2010)
Annual growth rate : 1,5 -2 % over 40 years

19. Sources of agricultural growth
Growing importance of yield gains (input intensification)
Limited contribution of TFP growth (technological innovation)

20. Food Gap
Only 15% of growing SSA food demand can be met with current TFP growth
demand
production

21. Agrarian & Rural Change (Jayne et al.)
• Surplus land, but only in few countries (Congo,
Angola, Gabon, Cameroon)
• Declining average farm size (0.9-1.5 ha/fam)
 stagnating returns to (family) labour
• Rise of medium-size farms (20-100 ha) owned by
urban investors (telephone farmers)
• Growing land inequalities (Gini > 0.6)
• Shift to rural off/non-farm wage & self-employment
(+ migration)
• Growth corridors: concentrated development

22. Low agricultural labour productivity
Due to:
- Limited input
complementarities
- Scarce irrigation
- Low education
- No credit access
- Little extension
services
- High risks

23. SSA Post harvest losses
Potential gains in post-harvest management up to 25% (± 15) of production value
(Mainly: transport & Storage)

24. Double burden of malnutrition

25. Health challenges & Disease burden
Infectious diseases outbreaks
(2001-13)
Agricultural Policies become Food (and Health) Policies

26. Agriculture – Nutrition impact Pathways

27. Strategies for Food & Nutrition Security

28. Outlook & Challenges
• Diet transition  focus on F&V, Dairy, Poultry,
Pork & aquaculture (intensive farming)
• Increase (commercial farm) land & labour
productivity & reduce (value chain) losses
• Focus on food safety and quality (healthy
diets) & sustainable production (resilience)
• Development of short chains & regional trade
• Reducing food import dependency