This daily commodity report from Epic Research India provides an overview of the agri commodity markets. It summarizes the latest spot prices and trends for commodities like coriander, castorseed, turmeric, and guar gum. It also shares trading levels and short-term price outlook for these commodities. Additionally, the report discusses arrival figures and demand trends for commodities like jeera, chana, and guarseed. It concludes with a fundamental analysis of cotton arrivals and production estimates.

1. DAILY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT
18 May 2015
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2. Market Views
2
MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL
CORIANDER
JUNE 10610 11000 10610 11000 +4.00 27150
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP.1
10458
SUPP. 2
10339
PIVOT
10729
Coriander short term
trend is up and June
continue in coming
days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
10848
RES. 2
11119
CASTORSEED
JUNE 3858 3897 3845 3868 +0.36 61340
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
3843
SUPP. 2
3818
PIVOT
3870
Castorseed short term
trend is up and June
continue in coming
days..RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
3895
RES. 2
3922
TURMERIC
JUNE 8234 8334 8170 8204 -0.58 11390
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
8138
SUPP. 2
8072
PIVOT
8236
Turmeric short term
trend is down and June
continue in coming
days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
8302
RES. 2
8400
GUARGUM
JUNE 11410 11520 11260 11410 -1.04 11351
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
11273
SUPP. 2
11137
PIVOT
11397
Guargum short term
trend is down and June
continue in coming
days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
11533
RES. 2
11657

3. Most Active Contract
3
NCDEX INDICES
Index Value
Pre.
Close
%
Change
CASTORSEED 3868 3854 +0.36
CHANA 4639 4611 +0.61
CORIANDER 11000 10577 +4.00
GUARGUM 11410 11530 -1.04
JEERA 17790 17770 +0.11
MUSTARD SEED 4057 4062 -0.12
SOYABEAN 4111 4058 +1.31
TURMERIC 8204 8252 -0.58
TOP LOSERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE
CHANGE
%
COTTON SEED OIL CAKE
AKOLA
20-05-2015 1831.00 -18.00 -0.97%
TURMERIC 20-05-2015 8160.00 -20.00 -0.24%
RAPESEED-MUSTARD
SEED
20-05-2015 4036.00 -4.00 -0.10%
TOP GAINERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE CHANGE %
CORIANDER 20-05-2015 10740.00 390.00 3.77%
SOYABEAN 19-06-2015 4096.00 43.00 1.06%
CASTOR SEED NEW 20-05-2015 3755.00 23.00 0.62%
BARLEY 20-05-2015 1235.00 5.00 0.41%
JEERA 20-05-2015 17285.00 35.00 0.20%
REFINED SOY OIL 19-06-2015 605.80 1.00 0.17%
CHANA 20-05-2015 4555.00 6.00 0.13%

4. Commodities In News
4
ECONOMIC NEWS
 The country’s wheat production in 2014-15 is expected to be
around 5.07 million tonnes less than last year's, the lowest in four
years, due to widespread and unseasonal rain and hail in several parts
of North India from late February.According to the third advance
estimate, issued on Wednesday, overall foodgrain production in the
rabi season, which includes rice and pulses, seems to have been
impacted by this. It is now estimated at 9.83 million tonnes less than
last year’s, at 126.52 mt.However, economists said food inflation,
except in chana (chikpea), might not rise due to lower production but
the government will have to be alert, augmenting supply from its
stocks and importing when needed.Combined foodgrain output from
the current rabi and previous kharif seasons is now expected to be
251.12 mt, about 14 mt lower than in 2013-14.This production
estimate is almost six mt lower than in the second advance estimate,
issued in February.A less than normal southwest monsoon in 2014
also contributed to this. India had received 12 per cent less rain than
the average last year in that season.“Production of kharif crops in
2014-15 suffered due to bad monsoon, while unseasonal rain and hail
during February and March had significant impact on production of
rabi crops. As a result, production of most crops declined,” went the
official statement. The crop season runs from July to June.In rabi, the
data says pulses production is expected to fall by 10.4 per cent as
compared to 2013-14, to 11.87 mt. Oilseeds, mainly mustard, is
projected to fall by 12.8 per cent to 8.83 mt.“I don’t think this would
have an impact on food inflation, as global prices are weak, while
domestic food stocks are good. However, a lot will also depend on
government policies on offloading of grain stocks and imports,the
impact of a poor kharif and rabi output on agricultural gross domestic
product (GDP) in 2015-16 would depend on how the southwest
monsoon behaved.Wheat and rice stocks with the government are
51.17 mt, as against a buffer norm of 21 mt.Widespread rain and hail
hit the country from late February, which impacted almost 30 per cent
of the total rabi sowing of 60 million hectares.
 Spot Jeera stayed supported after soaring above Rs 18000 levels last week
to hit its fresh highs. Tight arrivals in major trading centres have kept Jeera
supported this week. Arrivals dropped to just 10000 bags in Unjha today.
Arrivals normally surge to around 40000/45000 bags during this time.
Harvesting has been affected on late rains in Rajasthan and overall output
could suffer. According to a latest update from the Agriculture Ministry there
has been an increase in the area under Rabi crop coverage that was affected by
unseasonal rainfall and hailstorms from late February to early April. The
revised figure on the basis of State-wise data has more than doubled from the
April 16 estimate of 93.82 lakh hectares (lh) and as stands at 189.81 lakh
hectares (lh) as of April 24. The change is mainly because of the change in
data with reference to Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Bihar. Spot prices liner
around Rs 17700 per quintal mark, down Rs 20 per quintal on the day.
 Chana arrivals increased further in Delhi today and spot prices dropped
amid continued moderation in the demand for other pulses. Chana arrivals
dropped in Delhi in last few days as supplies from Rajasthan and MP are
moderating. However, the arrivals are edging up now and rose to 40 trucks
today after coming in at 35 trucks yesterday. Spot Chana trades at Rs 4600 per
quintal, almost unaltered on the day. Reports are stating that crop which was
sown early is likely to have endured some losses following the unseasonal
rains. The spot prices have dropped this week from their highest mark in last
two and half years.
 Expection of rains in Barmer in next couple of days. Modest rainfall was
witnessed in some key guar harvesting areas. The IMD noted that the south-
west Monsoon is expected to hit the country on time this year, arriving in
Kerala on June 1st this year. Though rainfall may remain below normal,
prompting the government to put in place a contingency plan and push crop
insurance for farmers, according to media reports. Monsoon is expected to be
below normal due to El Nino factor though. The spot guarseed markets
witnessed a drop in arrivals but the prices failed to extend their gains. Spot
prices are trading at Rs 4922 per quintal in Jodhpur, down Rs 40 per quintal
on the day. The arrivals stayed at just 15000 bags in Rajasthan.

5. 5
Fundamental Watch : Cotton
COTTON ARRIVALS AT KEY SPOT
MARKET
National Market Update
 Department of Agriculture and Co-operation (DAC), Ministry of Agriculture
(MoA) has revised the cotton production estimates up for season 2014-15 at 353.28
lakh bales in its third advance estimates against the target of 350 lakh bales and
351.52 lakh bales which was estimated in second advance estimates. The final
estimate of cotton production for season 2013-14, as estimated by DAC was 359.02
lakh bales. India exported 0.41 lakh bales of cotton last week (04-10 May 2015),
which was 0.426 lakh bales previous to last week (27 Apr-03 May 2015), Imports on
the other hand stood 0.091 lakh bales last week, which was 0.177 lakh bales previous
to last week. Cotton exports in the coming season that is 2015-16 is likely to be
around at 1.089 million tones (64.05 lakh bales approx.) around 28.6% lower when
compared to 849 million tones (49.9 lakh bales approx.) in the current season, Cotton
production in India would be on lower side in 2015-16, said USDA. Cotton output in
the country would be around 6.423 million ton in the coming season, slightly lower
than when compared to the current season which would be around 6.523 million
tones. Acreage of cotton in India would shrink in the coming season to 12 million
hectares from 12.7 million hectares in the current season. Yield of cotton would be
higher at 535 kg per hectare in the coming season as compared to 514 kgper hectare in
the current season.
 China cotton imports in the coming season is likely to drop by around 22.07% to
1.306 million tons in the coming season that is 2015-16 from 1.676 million tons in the
current season, said USDA.Cotton ending stocks are expected decline in the coming
season for the first time in the last five years. Lower production and higher
consumption would lead the ending stocks to fall. In the upcoming season ending
stocks would be around 23.143 million tons round 3.59% lower when compared to the
estimated figure of 24.005 million tons in the current season. World cotton production
is likely to decline in 2015-16 following the fall in area and yield, said USDA.
According to the first estimate for 2015/16 released on May 12, cotton production on
the global front is likely to stand around 24.22 million tons in 2015-16 around 6.73%
lower when compared to the estimated production for season 2014-15 which is 25.97
million tons. Cotton acreage on global front would be around 31.77 million hectares
around 6.09 percent lower. when compared to the yield of current season which was
768 kg per hectares
CENTER 15-May-15 14-May-15 Change
AMRAVATI 200 250 -50
MAHESANA NA NA -
RAJKOT 1080 1315 -235
GONDAL 202 220 -18
PATAN 1125 860 +265
BHIWANI NA NA -
DEESA NA NA -

6. Technical Outlook
6
BUY CORIANDER JUNE ABOVE 11088 TARGET 11113 11153 SL
BELOW11063
SELL GUARGUM JUNE BELOW 11290 TARGET 11240 11180 SL
ABOVE 11350
SELL TURMERIC JUNE BELOW 8166 TARGET 8126 8066 SL
ABOVE 8226
BUY CASTORSEED JUNE ABOVE 3904 TARGET 3929 3959 SL
BELOW 3879

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