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Epic research daily agri report 15 oct 2015
1. DAILY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT
15 October 2015
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2. Market Views
2
MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL
TURMERIC
NOV 8300 8460 8160 8172 -0.49 22960
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
8068
SUPP. 2
7964
PIVOT
8264
Turmeric short term
trend is bearish and
May continue in
coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
8368
RES. 2
8564
CORIANDER
NOV 12300 12425 11982 11993 -1.87 20020
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP.1
11842
SUPP. 2
11690
PIVOT
12133
Coriander short term
trend is bearish and May
continue in coming
days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
12285
RES. 2
12576
GUARGUM
NOV 8680 8830 8610 8700 -0.11 11505
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
8597
SUPP. 2
8493
PIVOT
8713
Guargum short term
trend is bullish and
May continue in
coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
8817
RES. 2
8933
CASTORSEED
NOV 4154 4196 4150 4153 +0.10 43540
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
4137
SUPP. 2
4120
PIVOT
4166
Castorseed short term
trend is bearish and
May continue in
coming day.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
4183
RES. 2
4212
3. Most Active Contract
3
NCDEX INDICES
Index Value
Pre.
Close
%
Change
CASTORSEED 4001 4003 -0.05
CHANA 5198 5172 +0.50
CORIANDER 11821 12040 -1.82
GUARGUM 8560 8530 +0.35
JEERA 16340 16385 -0.27
MUSTARD
SEED
4979 4914 +1.32
SOYABEAN 4007 3873 +3.46
TURMERIC 8000 8032 -0.40
TOP LOSERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE
CHANGE
%
COTTON SEED OIL CAKE
AKOLA
18-12-2015 1657.00 -6.00 -0.36%
TOP GAINERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE CHANGE %
SOYABEAN 20-10-2015 4005.00 118.00 3.04%
TURMERIC 20-10-2015 8126.00 116.00 1.45%
RAPESEED-MUSTARD
SEED
20-10-2015 4992.00 67.00 1.36%
CASTOR SEED NEW 20-10-2015 4030.00 31.00 0.78%
GOLD 26-11-2015 27138.00 175.00 0.65%
CHANA 20-10-2015 5211.00 31.00 0.60%
REFINED SOY OIL 20-10-2015 638.50 2.45 0.39%
CORIANDER 20-10-2015 12100.00 40.00 0.33%
JEERA 20-10-2015 16470.00 45.00 0.27%
4. Commodities In News
4
ECONOMIC NEWS
To boost availability and check rising prices, state-run Kendriya Bhandar
will start selling imported tur dal at its 100 locations in Delhi from October
15, while sale of the commodity at Mother Dairy's 300 Safal outlets will
begin from this weekend.State-owned MMTC has floated a fresh tender for
import of 2,000 tonnes of tur dal, to be delivered by next month, to further
improve supply of pulses in the country.These decisions were informed at a
meeting of an inter -ministerial committee, headed by Consumer Affairs
Secretary C Vishwanath, held here.Officials of food and agriculture
ministries as well as MMTC, Mother Dairy and Kendriya Bhandar were
also present at the meeting."Regarding tur dal, Kendriya Bhandar informed
that all arrangements have been made to make imported dal available in its
outlets in Delhi from October 15, 2015. Safal will also sell the dal through
its outlets by this weekend," Food Ministry said in a statement.The two
agencies will lift imported raw tur dal from MMTC at a subsidised rate of
Rs 69 per kg. They will decide the final selling price after adding
processing and other charges, a Food Ministry official said.To control
pulses prices in other states, imported dal is being allocated to the states
upon request. Allocations to Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu have been
made, the statement said.MMTC informed in the meeting that it has floated
a bid for import of additional 2,000 tonnes of tur dal."It (the bid) will open
on October 16, 2015. The successful bidder will have to ensure delivery of
Tur at Indian ports by November, 2015," it added.MMTC has contracted to
import 5,000 tonnes of tur dal, out of which 3,250 tonnes have landed at
Chennai and Mumbai ports.The remaining stock will arrive soon. The
public sector firm has separately contracted to import 5,000 tonnes of
urad."The committee was also of the view that an independent expert
agency dealing with commodities may also be involved in forecasting the
availability and demand of the essential food commodities both at domestic
as well as international level."This would facilitate to plan effective market
intervention, well in advance, by the concerned government agencies," the
statement said.
Mustard Seed settled up on improved demand and on speculation of
lower supply in international and domestic market. The rise in mustard
oil demand by major consuming region of eastern India during the
festive season is encouraging higher buying by crushing units. Prices
were supported on supply worries after Indian Meteorological
Department (IMD) reported that from the beginning of Oct till today
Rajasthan has not received any rainfall which is likely to affect rabi
sowing of rm seed.Prices were also supported on supply worries after
USDA reported global rapeseed production forecast to decline 3.5
million tons in 2015/16 as a slight decrease in area reduces total output
to 68.1 million tons. According to latest USDA report, global rapeseed
production is forecast to decline 3.5 million tons in 2015/16 as a slight
decrease in area reduces total output to 68.1 million tons. In Europe,
Oil World has estimated the production of 22 million tons as compared
to 24.1 million tons in 2014/15.
Jeera settled up on account of good domestic demand at the spot
market ahead of festival season. Though, expectation of bumper
sowing in Gujarat due to good rains during last week of September,
capped some gains. As per Department of commerce data, exports from
India in first four months of FY 2015-16 is 31,419 MT.As per latest
spice board press release, cumin export is stood at 155,500 tonnes for
2014-15 period and earned foreign exchange worth Rs 1,838.20 crore
while in 2013- 14, the figures stood at 121,500 tonnes valued at Rs
1,600 crore. As per fourth advance estimate of Gujarat State,
production is expected at 1.58 lt in 2014-15, which is 54.3 % lower,
compared to last years’ production of 3.46 lakh tonnes. Jeera sowing
recorded 2.64 lh, 42% less sowing compared to last year’s 4.54 lh in
Gujarat last year. There is concern over production due to untimely
rainfall in March in Gujarat and Rajasthan.
5. 5
Fundamental Watch : Chana
CHANA PRICES AT KEY SPOT MARKETNational Market Update
According to IBIS (provisional data), import of pulses in the last week (28
Sept-04Oct) was around 72 Thousand tonnes at major ports in India, around
5% higher than previous week’s (21 Sept-27 Sept), import of 69 Thousand
tonnes. Masoor, Moong and Pigeon Pea were imported higher this week
whereas Chana, Kidney Bean, Green Pea, Cow Pea, Urad and Yellow Pea
were imported lower as compared to last week.
According to the first advance estimate 2015-16 by Ministry of Agriculture,
pulses Kharif production is estimated to be 5.56 MMT which is around 1%
lower than the fourth estimate of 2014-15 that was 5.63 MMT. Tur production
is estimated to decline to 2.61 MMT as compare to 2.71 MMT (4thestimate
2014-15) but Urad production is estimated to increase to 1.37 MMT from 1.27
MMT.
Area under Kharif pulses throughout the country stood 112.42 Lakh hectares
as on 18 September this year, around 12% higher when compared to the area
sown during corresponding period last year which was 100.72 lakh hectares,
according to Ministry of Agriculture.
According to the stat pub, Canada Lentil Production for 2015-16 is expected
to increase by 5 percent to 2.083 MMT. Canada had produced 1.987 MMT last
year. Despite hope for higher production export volume is likely to decrease
from 2.229 to 2.0 MMT in 2015-16. Canada growers predict the price range
for all lentils in between $750-$780 in 2015-16 due to better prospects of
export demand. Lentil prices were ruling $585 (average) per tonne in the last
season. As prices are expected to rule higher, local sellers and stockists, even
farmers would prefer to retain stock for garnering maximum profit and it may
slow down the current pace of export.
CENTER 14-Oct-15 13-Oct-15 Change
AHMEDNAGAR 5150 5100 +50
ALWAR 5000 4800 +200
GWALIOR 5050 4900 +150
JAIPUR 5300 5300 UNCH
KANPUR 5625 5625 UNCH
NAGPUR 5000 4800 +200
VIJAYWADA 5400 NA -
6. Technical Outlook
6
SELL CORIANDER NOV BELOW 11980 TARGET 11950 11870 SL
ABOVE 12007
BUY GUARGUM NOV ABOVE 8840 TARGET 8890 8960 SL
BELOW 8780
SELL TURMERIC NOV BELOW 8100 TARGET 8056 7996 SL
ABOVE 8160
SELL CASTORSEED NOV BELOW 4150 TARGET 4125 4095 SL
ABOVE 4175
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