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The CMO Survey - Highlights and Insights Report - Spring 2024
Epic research daily agri report 19th may 2015
1. DAILY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT
19 May 2015
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2. Market Views
2
MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL
CORIANDER
JUNE 11000 11660 11000 11660 +6.00 35810
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP.1
11220
SUPP. 2
10780
PIVOT
11440
Coriander short term
trend is up and June
continue in coming
days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
11880
RES. 2
12100
CASTORSEED
JUNE 3880 3975 3872 3958 +2.41 90710
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
3895
SUPP. 2
3832
PIVOT
3935
Castorseed short term
trend is up and June
continue in coming
days..RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
3998
RES. 2
4038
TURMERIC
JUNE 8200 8320 8096 8250 +0.41 15505
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
8124
SUPP. 2
7998
PIVOT
8222
Turmeric short term
trend is down and June
continue in coming
days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
8348
RES. 2
8446
GUARGUM
JUNE 11490 11850 11490 11820 +3.50 12124
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
11590
SUPP. 2
11360
PIVOT
11720
Guargum short term
trend is up and June
continue in coming
days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
11950
RES. 2
12080
3. Most Active Contract
3
NCDEX INDICES
Index Value
Pre.
Close
%
Change
CASTORSEED 3958 3865 +2.41
CHANA 4758 4630 +2.76
CORIANDER 11660 11000 +6.00
GUARGUM 11820 11420 +3.5
JEERA 18500 17790 +3.99
MUSTARD SEED 4097 4052 +1.11
SOYABEAN 4143 4103 +0.97
TURMERIC 8250 8216 +0.41
TOP LOSERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE
CHANGE
%
REFINED SOY OIL 19-06-2015 604.70 -0.10 -0.02%
TOP GAINERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE CHANGE %
CORIANDER 20-05-2015 11330.00 980.00 9.47%
JEERA 20-05-2015 17945.00 695.00 4.03%
CHANA 20-05-2015 4700.00 151.00 3.32%
CASTOR SEED NEW 20-05-2015 3850.00 118.00 3.16%
SOYABEAN 19-06-2015 4157.00 104.00 2.57%
RAPESEED-MUSTARD
SEED
20-05-2015 4095.00 55.00 1.36%
BARLEY 20-05-2015 1239.50 9.50 0.77%
TURMERIC 20-05-2015 8222.00 42.00 0.51%
COTTON SEED OIL CAKE
AKOLA
20-05-2015 1855.00 6.00 0.32%
4. Commodities In News
4
ECONOMIC NEWS
Agri markets continue to trade with very high volatility as reports
of Monsoon striking Kerala coast early keeps sentiments very
volatile as prices failed to take any clear direction.The reports on the
Monsoon advancement would be very critical in the near term as that
would be important for the sowing of Kharif crop.The rainfall deficit
of 7% as mentioned by IMD earlier however continued to support
the prices as all eyes would now be on when Monsoon strikes the
Kerala coast. Advance of southwest monsoon over the Andaman Sea
normally takes place around 20th May with a standard deviation of
about one week. During the last few days, enhanced convection and
increased rainfall activity has been observed over the Bay of Bengal
and the Andaman Sea,The cross equatorial flow is likely to
strengthen and deepen over the area. As such, conditions are
becoming favourable for advance of southwest monsoon over the
Andaman Sea and adjoining sea areas during the next 3-4 days.
India's foodgrains production is estimated to have declined by 5.25
per cent to 251.12 million tonnes in 2014-15 crop year due to poor
monsoon and unseasonal rain in past two months.Thecountry had
registered a record foodgrain production of 265.04 million tonnes in
2013-14 crop year (July-June). the Agriculture Ministry today said
the production of most of the crops fell because of bad monsoon in
2014 and unseasonal rains/hailstorms during March-April 2015 that
affected kharif (summer-sown) and rabi (winter-sown) crops.Rice
production is estimated to have fallen to 102.54 million tonnes in
2014-15against the record output of 106.65 million tonnes in the
previous year.It may, however, be noted that wheat and rice stocks
with government are 51.17 million tonnes as of May this year, as
against buffer norm of 21 million tonnes as of April 2015.The
ministry has revised downwards the production of foodgrains as well
as that of rice and wheat from its earlier estimates released on
February 18 this year.
Rising domestic demand, falling arrivals, crop loss from recent unseasonal
rains, lower production and the deficient report on Monsoon a few weeks back
kept overall sentiments firm.Markets traded last week with very high volatility
as reports of Monsoon arriving before time limited the uptrend. A fall in
production as per Govt estimates supported the market sentiments. As per 3rd
Advance Estimates for 2014-15, production of pulses estimated at 17.38 million
tons is lower by 1.87 million tons than last year’s produc-tion. Chana
production is estimated at 7.59 million tons vs 9.53 million tons last year.
Bearish news is that Monsoon is likely to hit Kerala coast ahead of schedule on
30th May. Markets are likely to trade with high volatility till IMD comes out
with some clear report on the weather.Talks of Govt of Maharashtra to remove
stock limit on pulses supported the prices. However the efforts of Delhi Govt to
keep a check on the rising prices by tracking the stocks held by stockists is
preventing further uptrend. At NCDEX Chana June contract was seen trading
up 2.76 % to 4758 level on Monday. Import of Pulses touched record high of
4.1 million tons in 2014-15 as adverse Monsoon last year coupled with rising
demand at the lower levels seen last year and crop damage reports from recent
rains in MP and Rajasthan resulted in lower production this year.
Spot Jeera prices are trading around 18000 levels today due to fresh buying
stockiest and expoerts. Tight arrivals in major trading centres have kept Jeera
supported this week. Arrivals have been reported around 7000 bags in Unjha
today. Harvesting has been affected on late rains in Rajasthan and overall
output could suffer. According to a latest update from the Agriculture Ministry
there has been an increase in the area under Rabi crop coverage that was
affected by unseasonal rainfall and hailstorms from late February to early April.
The revised figure on the basis of State-wise data has more than doubled from
the April 16 estimate of 93.82 lakh hectares (lh) and as stands at 189.81 lakh
hectares (lh) as of April 24. The change is mainly because of the change in data
with reference to Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Bihar. Spot prices liner around
Rs 17880 per quintal mark, up Rs 110 per quintal on the day. Latest report from
Spice Board of India indicates pickup in exports during April-Dec 2014 period
at 1.28 lakh tonnes up 28% during same period previous year.
5. 5
Fundamental Watch : Sugar
SUGAR PRICES AT KEY SPOT MARKETNational Market Update
Sugar prices traded steady to weak amid ample sugar production and paling
demand. As per the latest report by IBIS, India imported 21 thousand tons of sugar
this week (ending 10th May, 2015) compared to 23.5 thousand tons the previous
week. Similarly, the Indian exports fell by 21% this week as against 54.9 thousand
tons last week. The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) revisited India’ sugar
production estimate to around 28 million tons this marketing year i.e. 2014 -15. Sugar
production rose 12.8% in Uttarakhand this season, with the state producing 3.25 lakh
tons of sugar in 2014 -15(1st Oct, 2014 – 30th Apr, 2015) relative to 2.88 lakh tons in
2013 -14 (1st Oct, 2013 – 30th Apr, 2014). With these figures, the state marked an
end to the crushing operation for this season. With a production decline of 0.68 lakh
tons, Bihar ended up the crushing operation for marketing year 2014- 15. Notably, the
state produced 5.23 lakh tons of sugar in 2014 -15 (1st Oct, 2014 – 30th Apr, 2015) as
against 5.91 lakh tons sugar in 2013 -14 (1st Oct, 2013 – 30th Apr, 2014). Crushing
operation ended in Punjab with the state producing 5.25 lakh tons of sugar in 2014 -15
(1st Oct, 2014 – 30th Apr, 2015) as against 4.69 lakh ton in 2013 -14 (1st Oct, 2013 –
30th Apr, 2014). government increased import duty to 40% from current 25% and
withdraw duty free import of raw sugar to at curb imports. It has also removed a
12.36% excise duty levied on ethanol supplied for blending with petrol. As per the
latest estimates released by the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA), India
produced 273.7 lakh tonnes (lt) of sugar till April end, about 14.27 per cent more than
at the same time last season. Earlier, the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs
(CCEA) has approved incentive scheme for raw sugar production during 2014-15
(October-September) for a quantity of 1.4 million tonnes.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture, forecasted Brazilian sugarcane production to
648 million tons in 2015-16 amid surge in production area and yield per hectare.
Jamaican sugar cane producers have also benefited from the fact that EU prices have
bucked the global trend, keeping a premium of about 100/ton above world prices.
Furthermore, for the past 10 years, Jamaican producers have benefited from a total of
148.6 million worth of EU support to the local industry’s modernisation process,
which has reinforced its ability to weather the current storm.
CENTER 18-May-15 16-May-15 Change
DELHI 2670 2670 UNCH
DHAMPUR 2590 2600 -10
MUMBAI 2760 2760 UNCH
KOLHAPUR 2400 2400 UNCH
VIJAYWADA 2900 2900 UNCH
NAGPUR NA NA -
KOLKATA 2690 NA -
6. Technical Outlook
6
BUY CORIANDER JUNE ABOVE 11660 TARGET 11685 11725 SL
BELOW11635
BUY GUARGUM JUNE ABOVE 11900 TARGET 11950 12010 SL
BELOW 11840
BUY TURMERIC JUNE ABOVE 8300 TARGET 8340 8400 SL
BELOW 8240
BUY CASTORSEED JUNE ABOVE 3960 TARGET 3985 4015 SL
BELOW 3935
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