Jeera and Turmeric Update for Nov 2016

1. Spices Update
Jeera and Turmeric Update
17th November, 2016

2. Spices Update
Jeera (Cumin) Price Performance - Monthly
• In 2016, jeera prices have been in uptrend until
July in futures market due to good demand from
the stockists and improving exports.
• Traders and stockists have received higher
domestic demand for jeera due to good quality
production this year after two years of lower
production and quality issues due to bad
weather during harvest months.
2
• In 2013-14 and 2014-15, bad weather and unseasonal rains have limit the production in
Rajasthan and Gujarat. However, in 2015-16 jeera production forecasted higher by the
government organizations and trade bodies.
• The prices of cumin seed in 2016 touched all time highs in July due to increasing domestic
demand, good quality produce and higher demand for exports.
• The domestic prices of cumin seed mainly depends on the forecast of area and production,
weather during crop development, carry over stocks and export demand.
• Market is expecting a bumper crop during 2016-17 season due to good sowing progress.
13000
14000
15000
16000
17000
18000
19000
20000
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Source: Reuters
Monthly Average Closing Price- Jeera (Rs/Quintal)-
NCDEX

3. Spices Update Producing states and Production
Estimates - Jeera
3
 In 2015-16, country produce highest ever jeera recorded in the country as per
Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers Welfare (Horticulture Division). In
its 3rd advance estimate, total production of Cumin (Jeera) seed is projected at 3.74 lt, up
by 18% compared to previous year production.
 In 2016-17, the production will be depending on the acreage, which according to market
sources may be at the same levels as last year.
 Rajasthan and Gujarat are the top jeera
producing states in the country which account
for 80% of crop.
 The Jeera crop is expected to be good in 2016/17
due to higher prices realization by the farmers
during last year. Moreover, most parts of North-
West India have received normal to excess
rainfall during the monsoon months will support
good yield and higher acerage.
1.32
2.20
2.48
3.41
3.17
3.74
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
Jeera Production (Lakh Tonnes)
Source: Spice Board

4. Spices Update
4
Jeera Arrivals Declining
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Total
Monthly Arrival Comparision of Jeera in 2016-
17 and 2015-16
FY16-17 FY15-16Source: Agmarknet
 As per the Agmarknet data, total arrival of Jeera in
Gujarat and Rajasthan during first seven months in FY
2016/17 is down by about 13.8% compared to last
year for the same period.
 In current year, the arrivals are closed to 73,967
tonnes compared to 85,785 during last year.
 The arrival of jeera in the physical market is declining
after peaking during April, May and June as per the
seasonal trend.
 In Gujarat, arrivals recorded about 27.7% lower at 1.3
lt during the current year compared to last season
while Rajasthan recorded almost the same arrival
volume at 1.3 lt.
 The arrival volume in Rajasthan drastically reduced in
2015 & 2016 compared to 2014 arrivals due to lower
production.
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
Y-2014 Y-2015 Y-2016
Gujarat & Rajasthan - Total Arrivals (tonnes)
(Apr-Oct 2016)
Source: Agmarknet

5. Spices Update
5
Export picking up in 2016/17: Jeera
 In FY 2016/17, till August, India exported about
63,797 tonnes which higher by 63% compared to
last year export of 39,120 tonnes, as per the data
released by Department of Commerce.
 In the first five months of FY 2016/17, jeera exports
has achieved about 64% of last year’s export
volume due to good export demand that means the
exports will surpass last year figures.
 In 2014/15, country achieved highest ever export
volume, but dropped in 2015/16 due to lower
availability and higher prices of jeera in the
domestic market.
 The top five-export destination for jeera are
Vietnam, USA, UAE, Brazil and Egypt. Vietnam is the
largest importer, which imports more than 41 % of
total jeera exported by the country last year.
0
30000
60000
90000
120000
150000
180000
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17*
Cumin Exports ( Tonnes) from India
Source: Spice Board * Dept of Commerce (Apr-Aug)
4,000
9,000
14,000
19,000
24,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Export comparision (tonnes ) - 2015 & 2016 -Jeera
Y2015 Y2016Source: Dept of Commerce

6. Spices Update
6
Technical Outlook: Jeera
• NCDEX Jeera is trading in a down trend from
last couple of months after making a lift
time high of 20,020 levels in July 2016.
• Prices are trading below its 5 month
Exponential moving average (EMA) which
indicates short term trend to shifted
towards down side.
• However, prices trading above its 20, 50,
100 (Monthly basis) EMA, which shows that
trend is positive for long term perspective.
• As per technical indicators 14 Months RSI is
hovering between 50 -60 marks with
negative tone and MACD is also showing
Negative divergence in the prices.
We expect Jeera prices to find support at 16,000/15,800 levels and Trading consistently below
16,000 levels would lead towards the strong support at 15,000 level. Resistance is now
observed at 18,000 / 18,300 levels and trading above 18,300 levels would lead towards the
strong resistance at 19,000 levels.

7. Spices Update
7
Fundamental Price outlook - Jeera
7
• The sowing of Jeera has started in the country in the
states of Gujarat and Rajasthan which is expected to
be good compared to last year due to good monsoon
and higher price realization by farmers.
• The price of jeera started to get firm in November
after trending down during previous three months
due to diminishing carry over stocks.
9550
10550
11550
12550
13550
14550
15550
16550
17550
18550
19550
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Monthly Avg. Price of jeera for last 3 years- NCDEX
(Rs per Quintal)
Y 2014 Y 2015 Y 2016Source- NCDEX
• During the current calendar year (2016), jeera prices were higher compared to last two year
as exports as well as the quality have been encouraging this season despite higher prices.
• The stock position in NCDEX warehouse is at lower level compared to last year stocks which
indicate that the traders have not deposited jeera but holding as it fetched good price.
• We expect NCDEX Jeera prices (CMP: Rs.17,450/Quintal) for December delivery to ease a
bit towards Rs. 16,000/15,800 levels if the exports demand fade away in anticipation of
better crop next season. But on dwindling supplies and good export demand the price
may surged to Rs 19,000 levels during the off-season.

8. Spices Update
8
Turmeric Price Performance - Monthly
6800
7300
7800
8300
8800
9300
9800
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Source: NCDEX
Monthly Avg closing Prices of Turmeric (Rs per Quintal) - 2016• In 2016, Turmeric prices on futures market was
under pressure and trending down due to higher
availability of new season stocks.
• The prices were also lower as north Indian
buyers were inactive in the market claiming that
upcountry trading centers were holding good
stocks from previous purchases.
• Despite the monthly fall, the prices have been on higher side in 2016 compared to last two
year amid on lower acreage for second consecutive season and good export demand. The
price were under pressure due to inferior quality arrivals coupled with expectation of good
sowing progress during the Jun- Jul period after two years of drought.
• The domestic prices of turmeric seed mainly depends on the forecast of area and
production, weather forecast during crop development, carry over stocks and export
demand.
• Market is expecting a bumper crop during 2016/17 season due to higher acreage and good
climatic conditions.

9. Spices Update
9
Producing states and Production
Estimates - Turmeric
 In 2015-16, Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers Welfare (Horticulture
Division) in its 3rd advance estimate, pegged the total production of Turmeric at 9.57 lt,
while Spice board estimated about 8.43 lt. The production of turmeric during the last two
previous years were lower due to drought situation and lower acreage.
 The new season crop in 2016-17, will hit the markets in the next month and the quality &
production is expected to be good on forecast of good weather during the harvesting
season.
 Turmeric is widely grown in the southern
peninsular region of India. The main turmeric
growing States are Tamilnadu, Telangana and
Odisha, which occupies about 60% area followed
by Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal and Karnataka
occupying 23% of total turmeric area.
 India have received normal to excess rainfall
during the monsoon season which may help
increase of production by 25-30 % in 2016-17.
9.87
10.93
8.46 8.43
11
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16* 2016-17**
Prod (lakh tonnes)- RHS Area (lakh Hac) - LHS
Source: Spice Board * Estimates ** Forecast
India Turmeric - Area (Lakh Hac) & Production (Lakh Tonnes)

10. Spices Update
10
Expecting higher Turmeric Arrivals in new
season too
 The new crop for 2016/17 season will start to hit
the market in December. The arrival season peak
during March, April and May.
 In calendar year 2016, as per the Agmarknet data,
total arrival of Turmeric during first ten months, ups
about 57% compared to last year arrivals for the
same period.
 In current year, the arrivals are closed to 2 lakh
tonnes till October compared to 1.27 lt last year.
 Maharashtra and Telangana recorded the highest
arrivals among the other turmeric sowing states.
 The arrivals of turmeric in the physical market may
surpass arrival figures of 2012 as the prices have
improved in recent months.
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Monthly arrivals (tonnes) - 2016 & 2015
Year-2016 Year-2015Source: Agmarknet
1,00,000
1,20,000
1,40,000
1,60,000
1,80,000
2,00,000
2,20,000
2,40,000
Y2012
Y2013
Y2014
Y2015
Y2016*
Yearly Arrivals in a Calender Year - tonnes
Source: Agmarknet *Jan-Oct

11. Spices Update
11
11
Export higher in 2016/17: Turmeric
 India exported about 51,147 tonnes in 2016/17 till
August which is higher by 32% compared to last
year export of 38,761 tonnes, as per the data
released by Department of Commerce.
 In the first five months, turmeric exports has
achieved about 60% of last year’s export volume
due to good export demand from Iran and the USA.
 In 2015-16, India exports about 85,411 tonnes of
turmeric, which is lower by 5.9 % lower compared
to previous year.
 The top five-export destination during current
financial year is Iran, UAE, USA, Bangladesh and
Malaysia. Iran is the largest importer, which imports
about 15 % of total turmeric exported by the
country last year.
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
Apr-Mar
Apr-Aug
Apr-Mar
Apr-Aug
Apr-Mar
Apr-Aug
Apr-Mar
Apr-Aug
FY13-14 FY14-15 FY15-16 FY16-17*
Yearly Exports of Turmeric - tonnes
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Turmeric Export comparision (tonnes ) -
2015 Vs 2016
Y2015 Y2016Source: Dept of Commerce

12. Spices Update
12
Technical Outlook: Turmeric
• NCDEX Turmeric is trading in a down trend
since the start of 2016 after making a high of
10690 levels in Dec 2015. Price trend is
following “Lower top and lower bottom” is
basically a bearish sign and observed that chart
formed many bearish candlestick patterns.
• Exponential moving average (EMA) prices are
trading below its 5 and 20 Monthly EMA
indicates short term down trend. However,
prices trading above its 50 and 100 (Monthly
basis) EMA, which shows that trend is positive
for long term perspective.
• As per technical indicators 14 months RSI is
falling and MACD is showing negative
divergence which is negative for the prices.
We expect Turmeric prices to find support at 6,300 – 6,000 levels and trading consistently below
6,000 levels would lead towards the strong support at 5,500 level. The resistance is seen at
7,800 – 8,000 levels and trading consistently above 8,000 levels would lead towards the strong
resistance at 8,800 levels.

13. Spices Update
Fundamental Price outlook - Turmeric
13
• The harvest of turmeric is nearing and market is
expecting a good harvest this time due to near
perfect climatic conditions in the turmeric sowing
states in the country.
• During the current calendar year (2016), turmeric
prices were higher compared to last two year due to
higher demand and good export volume till the
month of August.
• However, the prices started to decline below the last year prices after reports of good
sowing acreage and normal monsoon.
• We expect NCDEX Dec’16 Turmeric prices (CMP: Rs. 7,032/Quintal) to ease a bit towards
Rs. 6,300/6,000 levels on anticipation of higher arrivals of turmeric in one month time.
The exports and the domestic demand may support prices just before harvesting during
the off-season.
6000
6500
7000
7500
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Yearly Price comparison of turmeric - Rs /Quintal -
NCDEX
Y2015 Y2014 Y2016
Source- NCDEX

14. Spices Update
Published in FY 2012. © Angel Broking 2011-12
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14
Ritesh Kumar Sahu
Analyst- Agri Commodities
riteshkumar.sahu@angelbroking.com
022 3935 8165
Anuj Gupta
Head Technical Research (Commodities and
Currencies)
anuj.gupta@angelbroking.com
(011) 4916 5954