1. The document summarizes key differences between sciences of certainty and sciences of uncertainty as outlined by Ralph Stacey in his work on complexity and organizational reality. 2. Sciences of certainty view movement as aiming to reveal hidden order or realize optimal states through universal laws or rational choice. Sciences of uncertainty see movement as constructing an unknown future through local interactions and the interplay of continuity and transformation. 3. Leadership in complex systems is about widening and deepening conversations rather than designing systems. Leaders act as influential participants in ongoing conversations to evoke further exploration of emergent patterns across wider societies.

1. Turning to Complexity Meetup – Tues 15 May ‘18:
WHERE LEADERSHIP MEETS
COMPLEXITY – EMBRACING
UNCERTAINTY
RICHARD ATHERTON – CO-FOUNDER, FIRSTHUMAN
EMAIL: RICHARD@FIRSTHUMAN.COM
TWITTER: @RATHERTONRICH
WEB: FIRSTHUMAN.COM

2. 1. Efficient 2. Rationalist 3. Formative
Movement
towards future
that is:
a repetition of the past a goal chosen by reasoning
autonomous humans
an unfolding of mature form
enfolded at the beginning
Movement in
order to:
reveal hidden
order/realize optimal state
realize chosen goals realize a mature form
already given
Process of
movement/
cause is:
universal, timeless laws,
of ‘if-then’ kind
human reason with ethical
universals
unfolding a whole
already enfolded in rules
of interaction
Nature of
variation/
change:
corrective/fitting/ aligning designed by rational choice
to get it right
shift from one given
form to another in stages
of development
Freedom/
constraints:
freedom through
conforming to constraint
of natural laws
through reason
constrained by universals
no freedom, only
constraint by given forms
Sciences of certainty
Adapted from Complexity and Organisational Reality, Ralph D. Stacey.

3. Sciences of uncertainty
1. Adaptionist 2. Transformative
Movement towards
future that is:
unknown and dependent on chance perpetually constructed by the
movement itself as continuity and
transformation, the known and the
unknown, at the same time
Movement in order
to:
survive as a species express continuity and transformation of
individual and collective identity
Process of movement/
cause is:
random variation in individual
entities/natural selection
local interaction forming and being
formed by population-wide patterns
Nature of
variation/change:
small chance variations diverse micro interactions and escalation of
small changes
Freedom/constraints: freedom arising by chance, constrained
by competition
both freedom and constraint arise in
spontaneity and diversity of micro
interactions
Adapted from Complexity and Organisational Reality, Ralph D. Stacey.

6. 6
“The primary function of
the leader-manager [is]
one of widening
& deepening
the
conversation”.
- Ralph Stacey

7. 7
“[Think about] leader-managers not as
designers of systems, but as
particularly influential
participants in the ongoing
conversation.” - Ralph Stacey

8. 8
“The primary activity of an effective leader is to
constantly evoke and provoke
further exploration by members of a
group, as they act together into the unknown and
then respond to what they produce.”
- Ralph Stacey

9. 9
“Moreover, leaders in such groups are not simply,
not even primarily, seeking to articulate what is
emerging between them in their own local
interaction in isolation. What they are trying to do is
articulate what is emerging
across the populations of wider
societies.” - Ralph Stacey

11. Narrative capture

12. Self-signification | Triads

13. Self-signification | Dyads

14. Stones

15. Narrative contour maps

16. Sensing making from triads

17. Sensing making from triads

18. • A POSTERIORI VS A PRIORI
• REALTIME
• NARRATIVE-LED