On 12 December 2019 the UK had its third General Election in four years. After weeks and months of speculation, by lunchtime on Friday 13 December we had the results. But big questions remained. How – and where – was the election won and lost? What does the result mean for Brexit? Where does it leave our political parties and their leaders? And in which direction might our big national political debates be heading? To debate these questions, the Resolution Foundation held an event examining the overnight election result and heard from some of Britain’s leading political thinkers, doers and writers on what those results mean for the immediate-, medium- and long- term future of British politics.

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Election Dissection
Analysing General Election 2019
@resfoundation#Election2019

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Change in vote share and seats between 2017 and 2019 general elections
Source: RF analysis of Britain Elects
@resfoundation
The headlines of this election are VERY clear

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Change in seats for the opposition party at UK general elections
Source: RF analysis of Britain Elects; House of Commons Library
@resfoundation
Don’t forget how historically unprecedented this is

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Change in seats for the opposition party at UK general elections
Source: RF analysis of Britain Elects; House of Commons Library
@resfoundation
Don’t forget how historically unprecedented this is

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Growth in house prices, incomes and GDP: UK
Notes: Average house price growth relates to growth on the previous year for June 1987 and the most recent data available, September 2019. GDP growth relates
to quarter-on-quarter growth for Q2 1987 and Q3 2019.
Source: RF analysis of ONS
@resfoundation
For the Tories, this shouldn’t have been a walk in the park

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Change in vote share of major parties at general elections, by region: 2017-19
Source: RF analysis of Britain Elects; House of Commons Library, General Election 2017: full results and analysis, January 2019
@resfoundation
Labour collapse in the North, Tories grow in the midlands

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Change in Conservative vote share at general elections: England & Wales, 2015-19
Notes: EU referendum votes are estimated at the constituency level by Chris Hanretty, using areal interpolation. Source: RF analysis of House of Commons Library,
General Election 2017: full results and analysis, January 2019; House of Commons Library, General Election 2015, July 2015; C Hanretty, ‘Areal interpolation and
the UK’s referendum on EU membership’, Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 27(4), March 2017
@resfoundation
2017 was about Brexit for the Conservatives – 2019 doubled
down

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Change in Labour vote share at general elections: England & Wales, 2015-19
Notes: EU referendum votes are estimated at the constituency level by Chris Hanretty, using areal interpolation. Source: RF analysis of House of Commons Library,
General Election 2017: full results and analysis, January 2019; House of Commons Library, General Election 2015, July 2015; C Hanretty, ‘Areal interpolation and
the UK’s referendum on EU membership’, Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 27(4), March 2017
@resfoundation
Labour falls this time are about Brexit

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Relationship between age and Conservative/Labour vote share in parliamentary constituencies at
recent general elections: England
Notes: Mean age is estimated based on single-year-of-age data, with those aged 90 and above grouped. To calculate mean ages, we assign all those aged 90 and above
an age of 90, meaning we will slightly underestimate the mean age across constituencies. Source: RF analysis of ONS, Mid-year Population Estimates; Britain Elects;
House of Commons Library, General Election 2017: full results and analysis, January 2019; House of Commons Library, General Election 2015, July 2015; Pippa Norris
@resfoundation
Importance of age grows for Labour votes

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Relationship between deprivation levels and Conservative/Labour vote share in parliamentary
constituencies at recent general elections: England
Source: RF analysis of Index of Multiple Deprivation; Britain Elects; House of Commons Library, General Election 2017: full results and analysis, January 2019; House of
Commons Library, General Election 2015, July 2015; Pippa Norris data @resfoundation
Pay attention to the new Conservative coalition