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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar
Wednesday, 17 December 2014
Stocks Covered Today
Ticker Price Target
VFQS* 14.00 12.60
UDCD 20.29 21.80
*Medium-term
QSE Index
Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)
Last 11,057.33 -3.5 16.2
Resistance/Support
Levels 1
st
2
nd
3
rd
Resistance 11,430 11,230 11,640
Support 10,900 10,500 10,000
QSE Index Commentary
Overview:
The Index is at a critical level. Stability is
critical above the 10,900 level where the
support comes from a medium-term
uptrend. A breach below the level means
the start of a medium-term downtrend
which may drag the Index below the
10,000 level. There is some light at the
end of the tunnel. The Index, over the past
sessions, did not close below the 10,900.
Thus creating what can be considered as
Tweezers Bottom reversal formation. This
can only be confirmed with a strong move
above the 11,600 points.
Expected Target Level: 11,600
This is a best case scenario given the
drop in oil prices and regional contagion.
Suggested Stop-Loss Level: 10,900
If broken, then sell and watch.
QSE Index (Weekly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
QE Summary
Market Indicators 16 Dec 14 15 Dec 14 %Ch.
Value Traded (QR mn) 929.4 1,008.1 -7.8
Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 612.0 634.0 -3.5
Volume (mn) 20.3 25.2 -19.4
Number of Trans. 8,192 11,034 -25.8
Companies Traded 41 41 0.0
Market Breadth 5:34 37:4 –
QE Indices
Market Indices Close 1D% RSI
Total Return 16,491.91 -3.5 21.6
All Share Index 2,822.41 -3.5 21.6
Banks 2,972.31 -1.6 29.8
Industrials 3,574.16 -5.3 19.7
Transportation 2,010.31 -4.9 20.3
Real Estate 1,970.48 -5.0 15.0
Insurance 3,309.04 0.4 18.1
Telecoms 1,278.80 -5.6 27.0
Consumer 6,022.43 -5.0 23.2
Al Rayan Islamic 3,601.85 -4.9 20.9
RSI 14 (Over Bought)
Ticker Close 1D% RSI
RSI 14 (Over Sold)
Ticker Close 1D% RSI
AHCS 10.60 -8.2 6.8
MPHC 25.70 -5.3 8.1
ERES 13.18 -4.3 9.9
SIIS 12.57 -5.5 12.6
QOIS 11.30 -9.2 14.6
QSE Index (Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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VFQS (Medium-Term)
Price % Ch. Volume
Last 14.00 -7.59 1,647,995
Resistance/Support
Levels (QR) 1
st
2
nd
3
rd
Resistance 15.90 17.20 18.20
Support 13.90 12.60 10.70
Commentary
Overview:
The name, over the medium-term, is
bearish. It created a double-top that can
be seen on the weekly chart. Indicators
are supporting the idea that more
weakness is ahead of us. The MACD just
dropped below the zero line and the RSI is
just reaching the oversold area,
suggesting more drops to come. Bounces
are possible, but should be treated as
exits of long positions. These expected
bounces are exhibited by the daily chart’s
indicators. The RSI is positively diverging
vs. the price while it is still in the oversold
area. Betting on these bounces can be
very tricky because traders are catching a
falling knife; it is a high risk business with
low return while most of the market
players are against the buyer.
Expected Price Retreat: QR12.60 –
QR10.70
This needs a break below the QR14.00
price with high volumes for a couple of
sessions to trigger the sell order.
(Weekly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
(Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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UDCD
Price % Ch. Volume
Last 20.29 -6.93 1,029,155
Resistance/Support
Levels (QR) 1
st
2
nd
3
rd
Resistance 21.90 21.14 24.10
Support 20.00 19.70 18.00
Commentary
Overview:
UDCD created what is possibly called a
Tweezers Bottom candlestick, which is a
reversal pattern. There is a probability that
the name will bounce from the QR20.00
price level; previous bottoms made last
March can create a support level there.
Indicators are mainly bearish, manifesting
the previous downtrend. These bearish
indicators reached extreme levels, thus
overselling could be unfolding. The RSI on
the daily is at the oversold area while on
the hourly it is bouncing off the oversold
area and positively diverging vs. price.
Expected Target Price: QR21.80
A bounce is expected from this level. For
more conservative traders, a break above
QR20.00 is needed to buy into the name.
Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR19.70
A drop below the level means continuation
of the previous downtrend.
(Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
(Hourly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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Intra-day Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages*
Support Levels Resistance Levels
Ticker Close 3
rd
2
nd
1
st
Pivot 1
st
2
nd
3
rd
50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA
QSE Index 11,057.33 10,746.57 10,873.60 10,952.07 11,079.10 11,206.13 11,284.60 11,411.63 13,222.86 13,429.76 12,932.30
Total Return 16,491.91 16,028.40 16,217.86 16,334.91 16,524.38 16,713.84 16,830.89 17,020.36 19,721.77 20,030.36 19,256.00
All Share 2,822.41 2,747.68 2,778.31 2,797.23 2,827.86 2,858.49 2,877.41 2,908.04 3,353.40 3,399.73 3,282.34
Al Rayan Islamic 3,601.85 3,459.47 3,519.92 3,557.27 3,617.72 3,678.17 3,715.52 3,775.97 4,449.63 4,547.71 4,286.87
Banks & Financials Services
MARK 41.60 38.93 39.77 40.29 41.13 41.97 42.49 43.33 49.60 52.61 50.24
CBQK 62.80 59.00 60.49 61.41 62.90 64.39 65.31 66.80 71.81 71.00 68.62
DHBK 50.10 48.30 49.26 49.85 50.80 51.76 52.35 53.30 57.94 58.98 60.11
QIBK 85.80 81.40 83.42 84.68 86.70 88.72 89.98 92.00 107.45 110.83 98.97
QIIK 71.80 64.67 67.30 68.93 71.57 74.20 75.83 78.47 84.41 86.26 83.63
Insurance
QATI 77.00 75.07 76.17 76.86 77.97 79.07 79.76 80.87 93.74 94.85 84.69
Consumer Goods & Services
MCGS 96.00 86.47 90.32 92.71 96.57 100.42 102.81 106.67 124.78 124.98 102.41
Industrials
IQCD 162.20 158.07 159.59 160.54 162.07 163.59 164.54 166.07 187.88 186.73 184.63
QEWS 170.00 159.00 162.25 164.25 167.50 170.75 172.75 176.00 187.03 187.11 184.45
GISS 72.30 69.10 70.82 71.88 73.60 75.32 76.38 78.10 112.45 116.49 102.99
QIGD 35.00 33.67 34.05 34.28 34.67 35.05 35.28 35.67 47.36 52.62 55.86
Real Estate
BRES 36.90 33.97 35.04 35.70 36.77 37.84 38.50 39.57 44.74 43.01 40.52
UDCD 20.29 19.36 19.76 20.01 20.41 20.81 21.06 21.46 26.34 27.81 25.78
ERES 13.18 12.53 12.87 13.08 13.43 13.77 13.98 14.33 18.36 19.19 21.43
MRDS 15.90 15.17 15.53 15.75 16.11 16.47 16.69 17.05 22.37 22.73 20.15
Telecommunication
ORDS 107.00 103.53 105.52 106.75 108.73 110.72 111.95 113.93 121.21 125.63 134.03
VFQS 14.00 13.43 13.72 13.90 14.18 14.47 14.65 14.93 18.89 19.91 18.25
Transportation
QGTS 20.35 20.05 20.20 20.30 20.45 20.60 20.70 20.85 23.64 24.07 23.29
QNNS 85.00 81.00 82.91 84.09 86.00 87.91 89.09 91.00 97.86 96.43 95.38
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

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Definitions:
Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening
and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is
lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they
compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.
Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.
Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the
security price to head lower.
SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus
considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative
price direction and potential support/resistance levels.
Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in
a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally
use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be
considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.
Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &
shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.
Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These
levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.
Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot
Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.

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Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian
Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa
Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC
Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025
sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
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