Qatar stock exchange: Daily technical report

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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar
Thursday, 20 November 2014
Stocks Covered Today Ticker Price Direction Tgt.
DHBK
60.00
Up
61.20
QEWS
192.00
Flat
194.00
QSE Index Price % Ch. Vol. (mn)
Last
13,901.08
0.7
8.8
Resistance/Support (Daily) Levels 1st 2nd 3rd
Resistance
14,000
14,350
14,600
Support
13,800
13,700
13,660
QSE Index Commentary
Overview:
The Index broke away from the 13,800 resistance level. The highest level reached in the session was 52 points shy from target; then it settled back around the 13,900s. However, we believe that the Index will continue its march upward as indicators show. The Index closed above all SMAs, the MACD is taking off from the zero line, the RSI is also breaking away from the neutral zone and volumes confirmed the strength of the push.
Expected Target: 14,350
Target is dependent on breach above the 14,000 level.
Suggested Stop-loss: 13,700
QSE Index (Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
QE Summary Market Indicators 19 Nov 14 18 Nov 14 %Ch.
Value Traded (QR mn)
1,112.0
815.8
36.3
Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn)
751.9
748.8
0.4
Volume (mn)
16.5
12.1
36.4
Number of Trans.
9,033
8,491
6.4
Companies Traded
43
42
2.4
Market Breadth
29:11
23:15
–
QE Indices Market Indices Close 1D% RSI
Total Return
20,733.32
0.7
56.0
All Share Index
3,522.44
0.6
57.5
Banks
3,504.19
0.8
59.9
Industrials
4,576.70
0.2
53.7
Transportation
2,460.72
0.4
66.8
Real Estate
2,811.03
0.8
54.0
Insurance
4,115.85
0.0
56.7
Telecoms
1,501.05
1.0
32.6
Consumer
7,764.26
1.0
71.6
Al Rayan Islamic
4,747.11
1.0
61.6
RSI 14 (Over Bought) Ticker Close 1D% RSI
IHGS
199.60
0.6
99.2
MERS
233.20
-2.7
90.0
GWCS
65.90
2.2
78.9
WDAM
71.00
0.7
77.1
AKHI
57.00
3.1
75.3
RSI 14 (Over Sold) Ticker Close 1D% RSI
QIGD
47.30
2.0
28.7
QSE Index (30Min)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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DHBK Price % Ch. Volume
Last
60.00
0.50
363,367
Resistance/Support Levels (QR) 1st 2nd 3rd
Resistance
60.00
61.20
62.20
Support
58.80
56.50
53.00
Commentary
Overview:
On the daily chart, the bank made an ascending triangle. An ascending triangle is generally considered a continuation patterns for the previous price move. In this case, the previous move was an upward move. The indicators show positive momentum support a break above the triangle’s top barrier. The MACD is just moving above its zero line and the RSI got released from the neutral zone; both indicators are looking bullish on the daily and the hourly time frames. In addition, the price settled above its SMAs.
Expected Target: QR61.20 – QR62.00
As long as the price stays above QR59.00, it is safe to accumulate in case of weakness. For risk-averse traders, a break above the top of the triangle is needed to confirm higher continuation of the price. The top, at this point, is QR60.10.
Suggested Stop-loss: QR58.80
A break below signifies a level where price is below its SMAs, which is considered bearish.
DHBK (Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research DHBK (Hourly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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QEWS Price % Ch. Volume
Last
192.00
1.05
95,092
Resistance/Support Levels (QR) 1st 2nd 3rd
Resistance
194.00
196.50
200.00
Support
190.00
185.00
180.00
Commentary
Overview:
Although QEWS has been trading in a range, the stock made an ascending triangle recently. On the daily, price is above its SMAs, MACD is above the zero line and the RSI is gaining momentum. The same can be said on the hourly chart. Thus, the price is expected to move higher and may breach the resistance of QR192.30
Expected Target: QR194.00
Just like DHBK, price weakness can be used to build positions as long as the stock does not dip below the suggested stop-loss. For a better confirmation, a breach above the QR192.30 is needed to confirm the breakout.
Suggested Stop-loss: QR189.00
If price drops below the suggested level, then the price may start to coil to create a range.
QEWS (Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research QEWS (Hourly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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Intra-day Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages* Support Levels Resistance Levels Ticker Close 3rd 2nd 1st Pivot 1st 2nd 3rd 50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA
QSE Index
13,901.08
13,738.77
13,794.24
13,828.51 13,883.99
13,939.46
13,973.73
14,029.21
13,730.04
13,273.09
12,635.70
Total Return
20,733.32
20,491.23
20,573.97
20,625.09 20,707.83
20,790.57
20,841.69
20,924.43
20,478.22
19,796.22
18,704.59
All Share
3,522.44
3,485.73
3,498.18
3,505.87 3,518.32
3,530.77
3,538.46
3,550.91
3,470.45
3,357.11
3,195.69
Al Rayan Islamic
4,747.11
4,683.16
4,701.48
4,712.80 4,731.12
4,749.44
4,760.76
4,779.08
4,661.11
4,483.63
4,096.10 Banks & Financials Services
MARK
51.40
49.33
49.94
50.32 50.93
51.54
51.92
52.53
54.98
54.21
48.32
CBQK
74.90
73.10
73.63
73.97 74.50
75.03
75.37
75.90
71.37
69.05
66.85
DHBK
60.00
59.67
59.78
59.85 59.97
60.08
60.15
60.27
60.06
59.23
61.27
QIBK
112.00
110.07
110.72
111.12 111.77
112.42
112.82
113.47
115.97
107.64
94.39
QIIK
88.50
86.70
87.39
87.81 88.50
89.19
89.61
90.30
88.56
85.96
81.50 Insurance
QATI
97.90
96.70
97.20
97.50 98.00
98.50
98.80
99.30
98.45
91.44
79.90 Consumer Goods & Services
MCGS
139.00
133.00
135.29
136.71 139.00
141.29
142.71
145.00
129.47
111.71
91.13 Industrials
IQCD
198.00
195.80
196.68
197.22 198.10
198.98
199.52
200.40
189.77
183.34
183.55
QEWS
192.00
190.13
190.67
191.00 191.53
192.07
192.40
192.93
187.81
186.50
181.17
GISS
122.50
118.50
119.65
120.35 121.50
122.65
123.35
124.50
120.98
111.94
95.19
QIGD
47.30
44.87
45.69
46.20 47.02
47.84
48.35
49.17
56.91
57.11
56.10 Real Estate
BRES
52.90
49.57
50.56
51.17 52.17
53.16
53.77
54.77
41.10
40.79
37.99
UDCD
27.20
26.57
26.78
26.91 27.12
27.33
27.46
27.67
28.81
27.53
25.13
ERES
19.00
18.64
18.78
18.87 19.01
19.15
19.24
19.38
19.50
20.59
21.27
MRDS
23.12
22.51
22.72
22.85 23.06
23.27
23.40
23.61
23.99
21.43
18.54 Telecommunication
ORDS
120.00
118.60
119.10
119.40 119.90
120.40
120.70
121.20
129.14
131.94
139.07
VFQS
19.00
18.36
18.54
18.66 18.84
19.02
19.14
19.32
21.16
20.27
17.20 Transportation
QGTS
24.30
23.77
23.93
24.03 24.19
24.35
24.45
24.61
24.32
23.80
22.91
QNNS
104.00
101.73
102.50
102.97 103.73
104.50
104.97
105.73
95.55
94.35
94.18
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

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Definitions:
Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.
Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.
Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the security price to head lower.
SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative price direction and potential support/resistance levels.
Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.
Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head & shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.
Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.
Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.

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Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian
Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa
Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC
Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025
sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.