The document provides a daily technical analysis of the Qatar stock market and select stocks. It summarizes the previous day's market activity and provides commentary on expected near-term price movements. The analysis indicates that the QSE Index closed slightly lower but may attempt a recovery to close above 13,800 resistance. Two stocks, KCBK and SIIS, are also analyzed, with technical indicators suggesting KCBK may break out above resistance at 22.70 and SIIS may bounce up to 18.50 after stabilizing above 17.50 support. Fibonacci levels and moving averages are given to identify further price support and resistance levels.

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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar
Tuesday, 25 November 2014
Stocks Covered Today Ticker Price Direction Tgt.
KCBK
22.50
Flat
23.40
SIIS
17.80
Down
18.50
QSE Index Price % Ch. Vol. (mn)
Last
13,690.02
-0.5
5.9
Resistance/Support (Daily) Levels 1st 2nd 3rd
Resistance
13,700
13,800
14,000
Support
13,660
13,550
13,450
QSE Index Commentary
Overview:
As expected, the market ended last session on a softer note. As the Index dipped below the 13,700 level, with the RSI on the intraday bouncing off the oversold area, it may strive for a comeback and close above the 13,800 level. The 13,800 resistance level proved its strength against the bulls and this softness will continue if the Index fails to close above the 13,800.
Expected Target: 13,800
On most indicators, a potential move upward is losing steam. However, it is still possible for bulls to come into play and lift the market up for daily traders.
Suggested Stop-loss: 13,660
A drop below this level could drag the Index another 100 points south.
QSE Index (Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
QE Summary Market Indicators 24 Nov 14 23 Nov 14 %Ch.
Value Traded (QR mn)
862.6
599.5
43.9
Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn)
742.4
745.9
-0.5
Volume (mn)
11.1
7.9
40.5
Number of Trans.
7,933
5,673
39.8
Companies Traded
41
40
2.5
Market Breadth
8:28
9:28
–
QE Indices Market Indices Close 1D% RSI
Total Return
20,418.54
-0.5
52.5
All Share Index
3,473.34
-0.5
54.4
Banks
3,454.38
-0.6
57.8
Industrials
4,506.68
-0.4
48.3
Transportation
2,413.31
-0.7
59.5
Real Estate
2,762.52
-1.0
53.2
Insurance
4,048.47
-1.4
54.6
Telecoms
1,510.61
1.5
35.6
Consumer
7,707.77
0.0
68.1
Al Rayan Islamic
4,636.16
-0.4
53.9
RSI 14 (Over Bought) Ticker Close 1D% RSI
RSI 14 (Over Sold) Ticker Close 1D% RSI
QSE Index (30Min)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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KCBK Price % Ch. Volume
Last
22.50
-0.66
71,625
Resistance/Support Levels (QR) 1st 2nd 3rd
Resistance
22.70
23.40
24.00
Support
22.40
22.00
21.00
Commentary
Overview:
The bank is experiencing a medium-term symmetrical triangle. Also, on the hourly chart, KCBK’s price formed a pennant (a compressed triangle). Both are continuation patterns for their respective previous moves, which in this case is upward. The only issue the name is facing is that the price is trading inside the boundaries of both formations. The good news is that indicators imply a possible break from these formations. If a break does take place, this will signify a strong bullish leg looking at QR23.40 for a first target. The MACD on both time frames is above the zero line. The RSI on the daily chart is bullish, and on the hourly is at the neutral zone. The SMAs on both time frames are below the price. All the previous indicate good odds of a bullish breakout.
Expected Target: QR23.40
A breach above the QR22.70 level for at least an hour with high volumes is needed to validate the breakout.
Suggested Stop-loss: QR22.40
A break below the level indicates another trip to the lower side of the symmetrical triangle.
KCBK (Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research KCBK (Hourly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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SIIS Price % Ch. Volume
Last
17.80
-0.11
190,702
Resistance/Support Levels (QR) 1st 2nd 3rd
Resistance
18.00
18.60
18.80
Support
17.50
17.00
16.50
Commentary
Overview:
SIIS has gone through a correction and lost around 6.2% over the past two weeks. The overall short-term trend looks bearish but traders can take advantage of any price bounces. The above mentioned correction is experiencing a possible end as the name has stabilized above the QR17.50 price level for the past three sessions. Although the MACD is below the zero line, it is flattening out on the daily chart. On the hourly chart, the MACD’s direction is more clear on the upside, supporting a short term rise in price. The RSI, both on the daily and the hourly charts, is stabilizing around the neutral zone.
Expected Target: QR18.50
The projected target needs a strong price break above the QR18.00 level.
Suggested Stop-loss: QR17.60
A drop below this level could drag the price further to the QR17.00 level followed by the QR16.50 price level.
SIIS (Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research SIIS (Hourly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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Intra-day Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages* Support Levels Resistance Levels Ticker Close 3rd 2nd 1st Pivot 1st 2nd 3rd 50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA
QSE Index
13,690.02
13,460.93
13,552.90
13,609.72 13,701.69
13,793.66
13,850.48
13,942.45
13,730.04
13,273.09
12,635.70
Total Return
20,418.54
20,076.85
20,214.03
20,298.78 20,435.95
20,573.13
20,657.88
20,795.05
20,478.22
19,796.22
18,704.59
All Share
3,473.34
3,420.45
3,442.23
3,455.69 3,477.47
3,499.25
3,512.71
3,534.49
3,470.45
3,357.11
3,195.69
Al Rayan Islamic
4,636.16
4,552.82
4,586.44
4,607.20 4,640.82
4,674.44
4,695.20
4,728.82
4,661.11
4,483.63
4,096.10 Banks & Financials Services
MARK
50.40
48.60
49.12
49.43 49.95
50.47
50.78
51.30
54.98
54.21
48.32
CBQK
74.80
73.33
73.87
74.20 74.73
75.27
75.60
76.13
71.37
69.05
66.85
DHBK
61.30
59.97
60.43
60.71 61.17
61.63
61.91
62.37
60.06
59.23
61.27
QIBK
108.00
104.20
105.65
106.55 108.00
109.45
110.35
111.80
115.97
107.64
94.39
QIIK
86.00
83.87
84.71
85.23 86.07
86.91
87.43
88.27
88.56
85.96
81.50 Insurance
QATI
96.00
95.00
95.57
95.93 96.50
97.07
97.43
98.00
98.45
91.44
79.90 Consumer Goods & Services
MCGS
132.60
129.53
130.87
131.70 133.03
134.37
135.20
136.53
129.47
111.71
91.13 Industrials
IQCD
195.00
193.00
193.96
194.55 195.50
196.46
197.05
198.00
189.77
183.34
183.55
QEWS
194.00
189.73
190.96
191.71 192.93
194.16
194.91
196.13
187.81
186.50
181.17
GISS
117.00
109.40
112.69
114.71 118.00
121.29
123.31
126.60
120.98
111.94
95.19
QIGD
46.00
45.00
45.38
45.62 46.00
46.38
46.62
47.00
56.91
57.11
56.10 Real Estate
BRES
50.70
48.03
49.18
49.89 51.03
52.18
52.89
54.03
41.10
40.79
37.99
UDCD
27.95
27.52
27.65
27.73 27.87
28.00
28.08
28.22
28.81
27.53
25.13
ERES
18.69
18.38
18.55
18.65 18.81
18.98
19.08
19.24
19.50
20.59
21.27
MRDS
22.99
22.60
22.77
22.87 23.05
23.22
23.32
23.50
23.99
21.43
18.54 Telecommunication
ORDS
121.90
116.70
118.19
119.11 120.60
122.09
123.01
124.50
129.14
131.94
139.07
VFQS
18.60
17.97
18.22
18.37 18.61
18.86
19.01
19.25
21.16
20.27
17.20 Transportation
QGTS
24.24
23.93
24.05
24.12 24.24
24.36
24.43
24.55
24.32
23.80
22.91
QNNS
101.50
98.50
99.65
100.35 101.50
102.65
103.35
104.50
95.55
94.35
94.18
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

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Definitions:
Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.
Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.
Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the security price to head lower.
SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative price direction and potential support/resistance levels.
Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.
Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head & shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.
Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.
Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.

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Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian
Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa
Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC
Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025
sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.