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15 September Daily Technical Trader
1. Page 1 of 2
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral
The QE Index remained volatile throughout the day before gaining
around 32 points (0.33%) to close at 9,619.84. Moreover, the index
managed to surpass the 9,600.0 psychological level, which is a
positive sign for the traders. If the index can hold on to this level on a
closing basis, it may stand a chance of moving toward 9,670.0.
However, if the index dips below 9,600.0 and the 55-day moving
average, (currently at 9,594.84) it may test support at 9,532.0.
Ooredoo: Short-Term – Bounce Back
ORDS respected support at the QR136.0 level and continued to
advance higher on the back of large volumes. ORDS is currently
sitting right at its resistance of QR138.50. We believe if ORDS can
hold on to this level on a closing basis, it may move higher toward the
21-day moving average (currently at QR139.60), followed by
QR140.0. However, a dip below QR138.50 on a closing basis may
result in a re-testing of QR136.0. Both indicators are moving upward.
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral
The QERI Index breached the 2,752.64 level and advanced higher
(0.42%) to close the session at 2,759.58. However, the index was not
able to sustain above the 21-day moving average (currently at
2,777.59) as buyers backed away from higher prices. Thus,
accumulation is not recommended until a further bullish confirmation
occurs. The index needs to cling on to 2,752.64 in order to retest the
21-day moving average; else it may retreat toward 2,722.24.
Doha Bank: Short-Term – Bounce Back
DHBK moved higher by around 0.75% after developing a Doji pattern
on Wednesday. We believe the stock is now approaching the upper
end of the channel zone, which is in proximity to the 21-day moving
average (currently at QR53.82). If DHBK manages to breach this
channel resistance on a closing basis, it may spark additional buying
interest. Moreover, both indicators are suggesting that DHBK may
move higher. However, any failure may pull the stock down.
Barwa Real Estate Co.: Short-Term – Bounce Back
BRES cleared the resistances of QR24.79 and 21-day moving
average in a single swoop on Thursday. With volumes also picking up
at these levels, it appears buyers are stepping in. We believe the
current higher push has enough steam to test and surpass resistance
at QR25.20, targeting the 55-day moving average. However, a dip
below the 21-day moving average on a closing basis may indicate a
false breakout. Both momentum indicators are pointing higher.
Gulf International Services: Short-Term – Pull Back
GISS advanced higher on Thursday after forming a Doji pattern.
GISS is consolidating below the QR47.40 level. This level still poses a
hurdle for the stock, which it must overcome if it has to move upward.
However, we believe as long as GISS trades below this level, the
upmove remains in jeopardy and may test the 55-day moving
average (currently at QR46.07). Conversely, if GISS closes above the
QR47.40 level, it may attract buying interest.
2. Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Ahmed M. Shehada Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Head of Trading Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is
regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal,
tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS
believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or
warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express
viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report.
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS.
Page 2 of 2
*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55-
day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and
long-term trends.
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine
tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
Definitions:
1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be
considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day
exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa.
Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance
Short Term Long Term First Second First Second
Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 9,619.84 UP FLAT 9,500.00 9,400.00 10,200.00 10,350.00
Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 2,759.58 FLAT DOWN 2,600.00 2,500.00 2,950.00 3,000.00
Banks and Financial Services
Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 29.20 DOWN UP 24.00 23.20 31.40 33.00
Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 67.70 DOWN DOWN 63.90 62.40 84.20 87.20
Doha Bank (DHBK QD)* 53.60 DOWN UP 42.00 39.50 57.14 58.00
Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 68.40 DOWN DOWN 65.00 64.30 78.50 79.60
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 56.30 UP UP 47.90 45.00 60.80 61.50
Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD) 18.63 UP UP 16.05 15.85 19.90 20.75
National Leasing Holding Co. (NLCS QD) 34.10 DOWN FLAT 32.00 31.00 43.90 45.00
Consumer Goods and Services
Widam Food Co. (QMLS QD) 50.00 DOWN DOWN 47.50 46.70 69.10 78.50
Industrials
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 151.30 DOWN DOWN 144.10 142.00 175.20 176.80
Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 154.00 DOWN FLAT 140.00 132.10 172.00 174.00
Gulf International Services (GISS QD)* 47.20 DOWN FLAT 30.50 29.50 52.00 54.00
Qatari Investors Group (KHCD QD) 29.90 DOWN DOWN 20.36 20.00 31.80 33.50
Real Estate
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD)* 25.10 DOWN DOWN 22.80 19.50 29.25 29.90
United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 21.20 DOWN DOWN 17.06 16.00 25.30 25.90
Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development (MRDS QD) 11.54 DOWN DOWN 10.17 9.42 12.65 13.20
Telecom
Ooredoo (ORDS QD)* 138.50 DOWN UP 108.00 98.10 146.00 148.00
Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 9.06 DOWN DOWN 8.50 8.24 9.98 10.20
Transportation
Nakilat (QGTS QD) 19.26 DOWN FLAT 15.08 14.52 21.15 21.70
Milaha (QNNS QD) 78.80 DOWN UP 58.20 56.70 84.90 86.50