15 April Daily technical trader


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15 April Daily technical trader

  1. 1. Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral The QE Index continued its decline for the second straight session to close at 12,144.19, down 81 points (-0.66%). The index breached the 12,200.0 level and thereafter witnessed sustained selling pressure throughout the day. However, the index managed to recover from its intraday low of 12,045.88 as buyers stepped in and quickly offset majority of its losses. The index needs to move above 12,217.0 in order to advance further or else it may continue to drift lower. Barwa Real Estate Co.: Short-Term – Downmove BRES continued its decline and penetrated below the 21-day moving average on the back of large volumes. The recent price action indicates that the stock may likely move lower to test QR35.80. If this level is breached additional selling pressure is likely to develop with an initial target of QR35.0. Meanwhile, both the momentum indicators are looking weak signaling a further downside. However, if the stock manages to reclaim the QR36.45 level it may provide some relief. Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Downmove The QERI Index failed to cling onto to its support of 3,952.75 and fell around 56 points (-1.41%) to close the session at 3,906.60. The index momentarily dipped below the support of 3,877.63, but later found buying support which pushed it above the 3,900.0 level recouping a bulk of its losses. However, traders may need to keep a close watch on the support of 3,877.63 as a dip below this level may result in a further pullback and the index may test the 3,850.0 level. Industries Qatar: Short-Term – Downmove IQCD penetrated below its support of QR181.40 and continued its declining mode. Moreover, the stock has been drifting lower and is moving along the descending trendline over the past few weeks. With the RSI moving further down from the mid-line and the MACD crossing the signal line into the negative territory, it seems IQCD may move down further to test QR178.30. Thus, it reinforces our bearish outlook for the stock. Gulf International Services: Short-Term – Downmove GISS dipped below the support of QR90.0 yesterday. The stock has been moving lower over the past few days since topping the rally at QR93.70. Moreover, GISS developed a bearish Marubozu candle pattern indicating that the stock may continue to decline further. The stock has immediate support of QR86.60, which if breached, may test the 21-day moving average. However, a close above QR90.0 may halt its downmove. Meanwhile, both the indicators are pointing down. Nakilat: Short-Term – Bounce Back QGTS rebounded and managed to surpass its resistance of QR21.58 on the back of large volumes, which is a positive sign. Moreover, the stock has been trading along the rising wedge channel over the past few weeks, which usually have bullish implications. We believe if the stock manages to cling onto QR21.58 it may continue to proceed ahead toward QR21.83, followed by QR22.19. Meanwhile, both the indicators are providing bullish signals indicating a potential rally.
  2. 2. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 12,144.19 UP UP 12,101.20 12,000.00 12,216.75 12,300.00 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 3,906.60 UP UP 3,877.63 3,850.00 3,952.75 4,000.00 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 43.15 UP UP 42.45 42.00 43.50 45.00 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 66.80 UP UP 65.75 63.75 68.40 70.00 Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 61.10 UP DOWN 59.23 58.20 63.30 64.50 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 78.70 UP UP 77.00 76.00 80.20 81.70 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 80.00 UP UP 79.72 77.30 81.50 83.00 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 72.60 UP UP 72.40 71.00 74.80 76.00 Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD) 22.48 UP UP 21.80 21.50 22.49 22.90 Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Medicare Group (MCGS QD) 77.50 UP UP 76.40 75.40 79.00 80.00 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD) 181.20 UP UP 175.00 164.00 182.00 185.00 Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)* 180.00 DOWN DOWN 178.30 175.50 181.40 184.50 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 182.50 UP UP 180.00 178.20 185.00 190.00 Gulf International Services (GISS QD)* 88.20 UP UP 86.60 84.80 90.00 93.00 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 57.60 UP UP 56.20 54.00 58.00 61.30 Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD)* 36.25 DOWN UP 35.80 35.00 36.80 37.40 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 22.00 UP UP 22.00 21.69 22.38 22.66 Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 147.00 UP UP 145.30 143.50 149.00 151.00 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 13.89 UP UP 12.99 12.66 14.00 14.23 Transportat Nakilat (QGTS QD)* 21.59 UP UP 21.15 20.90 21.83 22.19 Milaha (QNNS QD) 94.50 UP UP 93.00 91.10 96.50 98.40