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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral
The QE Index continued its decline for the second straight session to
close at 12,144.19, down 81 points (-0.66%). The index breached the
12,200.0 level and thereafter witnessed sustained selling pressure
throughout the day. However, the index managed to recover from its
intraday low of 12,045.88 as buyers stepped in and quickly offset
majority of its losses. The index needs to move above 12,217.0 in
order to advance further or else it may continue to drift lower.
Barwa Real Estate Co.: Short-Term – Downmove
BRES continued its decline and penetrated below the 21-day moving
average on the back of large volumes. The recent price action
indicates that the stock may likely move lower to test QR35.80. If this
level is breached additional selling pressure is likely to develop with
an initial target of QR35.0. Meanwhile, both the momentum indicators
are looking weak signaling a further downside. However, if the stock
manages to reclaim the QR36.45 level it may provide some relief.
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Downmove
The QERI Index failed to cling onto to its support of 3,952.75 and fell
around 56 points (-1.41%) to close the session at 3,906.60. The index
momentarily dipped below the support of 3,877.63, but later found
buying support which pushed it above the 3,900.0 level recouping a
bulk of its losses. However, traders may need to keep a close watch
on the support of 3,877.63 as a dip below this level may result in a
further pullback and the index may test the 3,850.0 level.
Industries Qatar: Short-Term – Downmove
IQCD penetrated below its support of QR181.40 and continued its
declining mode. Moreover, the stock has been drifting lower and is
moving along the descending trendline over the past few weeks. With
the RSI moving further down from the mid-line and the MACD
crossing the signal line into the negative territory, it seems IQCD may
move down further to test QR178.30. Thus, it reinforces our bearish
outlook for the stock.
Gulf International Services: Short-Term – Downmove
GISS dipped below the support of QR90.0 yesterday. The stock has
been moving lower over the past few days since topping the rally at
QR93.70. Moreover, GISS developed a bearish Marubozu candle
pattern indicating that the stock may continue to decline further. The
stock has immediate support of QR86.60, which if breached, may test
the 21-day moving average. However, a close above QR90.0 may
halt its downmove. Meanwhile, both the indicators are pointing down.
Nakilat: Short-Term – Bounce Back
QGTS rebounded and managed to surpass its resistance of QR21.58
on the back of large volumes, which is a positive sign. Moreover, the
stock has been trading along the rising wedge channel over the past
few weeks, which usually have bullish implications. We believe if the
stock manages to cling onto QR21.58 it may continue to proceed
ahead toward QR21.83, followed by QR22.19. Meanwhile, both the
indicators are providing bullish signals indicating a potential rally.
Saugata Sarkar Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025
email@example.com firstname.lastname@example.org email@example.com Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is
regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal,
tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS
believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or
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*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55-
day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine
tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be
considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day
exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa.
Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance
Short Term Long Term First Second First Second
Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 12,144.19 UP UP 12,101.20 12,000.00 12,216.75 12,300.00
Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 3,906.60 UP UP 3,877.63 3,850.00 3,952.75 4,000.00
Banks and Financial Services Banks and
Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 43.15 UP UP 42.45 42.00 43.50 45.00
Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 66.80 UP UP 65.75 63.75 68.40 70.00
Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 61.10 UP DOWN 59.23 58.20 63.30 64.50
Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 78.70 UP UP 77.00 76.00 80.20 81.70
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 80.00 UP UP 79.72 77.30 81.50 83.00
Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 72.60 UP UP 72.40 71.00 74.80 76.00
Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD) 22.48 UP UP 21.80 21.50 22.49 22.90
Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G
Medicare Group (MCGS QD) 77.50 UP UP 76.40 75.40 79.00 80.00
Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD) 181.20 UP UP 175.00 164.00 182.00 185.00
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)* 180.00 DOWN DOWN 178.30 175.50 181.40 184.50
Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 182.50 UP UP 180.00 178.20 185.00 190.00
Gulf International Services (GISS QD)* 88.20 UP UP 86.60 84.80 90.00 93.00
Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 57.60 UP UP 56.20 54.00 58.00 61.30
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD)* 36.25 DOWN UP 35.80 35.00 36.80 37.40
United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 22.00 UP UP 22.00 21.69 22.38 22.66
Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 147.00 UP UP 145.30 143.50 149.00 151.00
Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 13.89 UP UP 12.99 12.66 14.00 14.23
Nakilat (QGTS QD)* 21.59 UP UP 21.15 20.90 21.83 22.19
Milaha (QNNS QD) 94.50 UP UP 93.00 91.10 96.50 98.40