The document provides a technical analysis of the QE Index and key Qatari stocks to consider. It analyzes several indices and stocks and provides short-term outlooks, noting whether each is expected to experience a bounce back, pull back, or remain neutral. For each, it identifies important support and resistance levels. The analysis is based on methods like moving average trends and indicators like RSI and MACD. A table is also included showing historical trends and support/resistance levels for various stocks.
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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral
The QE Index rebounded from its day’s low of 9,852.98 and ended
yesterday’s session on a bullish note. The index experienced selling
pressure in the beginning of the session, but later attracted buying
interest and breached the 9,900.0 psychological level. The index
needs to hold on to the 9,900.0 level, for a higher move toward the
9,950.0-10,000.0 levels. Conversely, any dip below 9,900.0 on a
closing basis, may pull the index to retest 9,850.0.
Qatari Investors Group : Short-Term – Bounce Back
KHCD surpassed the key resistance at QR29.0 yesterday and
rebounded after finding support near the ascending trendline.
Notably, the breakout was on the back of high volumes, which is a
positive signal. We believe this strong breach of resistance has bullish
implications and may test and surpass the ascending trendline at
QR29.52, targeting the October 2008 high of QR30.0. Moreover, both
indicators look strong and are moving in an upward direction.
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral
The QERI Index after declining on Thursday reversed to close higher
at 2,846.46. The index breached the 2,835.40 level and the 21-day
moving average, indicating a false breakdown. However, traders are
advised to wait and watch if there is any follow-through to yesterday’s
rebound. If the index manages to cling on to support at 2,835.40, it
may advance toward the 2,856.0 level. On the other hand, a dip
below 2,835.40 may test 2,825.0.
United Development Co.: Short-Term – Pull Back
UDCD has been progressively setting lower lows, after failing to move
above the ascending trendline. Although UDCD is trading close to the
support at QR22.70, we believe the stock is unlikely to hold on to it
and may drift lower to test its next support at QR22.40. Moreover, the
RSI is pointing downward, while the MACD is growing more bearish
indicating a downside. However, if the stock manages to reclaim the
QR22.99 level, it may halt the downmove.
Widam Food Co.: Short-Term – Bounce Back
QMLS reversed and cleared its resistance of QR56.0 after finding
support near the horizontal line. Moreover, QMLS developed a bullish
engulfing pattern indicating a likely advance from the current level. We
believe the current higher push may test and surpass QR57.0
targeting QR57.90. The stock has support for a higher move from the
RSI, which has shown a bullish divergence from the oversold territory.
However, if the stock retreats below QR56.0, it may turn bearish.
Nakilat: Short-Term – Bounce Back
QGTS has been in strong upmove mode over the past few days and
surged around 3.75% yesterday. We expect QGTS to continue its
bullish momentum further pushing the stock toward QR21.15.
Moreover, the RSI is moving strongly in the overbought territory, while
the MACD is widening away from the signal line in a bullish manner
with no immediate trend reversal signs. However, if the stock declines
below QR20.0 on a closing basis, it may consolidate.
2. Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Ahmed M. Shehada Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Head of Trading Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is
regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal,
tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS
believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or
warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express
viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report.
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS.
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*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55-
day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK.QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and
long-term trends.
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine
tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
Definitions:
1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be
considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day
exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa.
Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance
Short Term Long Term First Second First Second
Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 9,909.85 UP UP 9,800.00 9,700.00 10,034.64 10,200.00
Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 2,846.46 UP UP 2,800.00 2,750.00 2,900.00 2,950.00
Banks and Financial Services
Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 30.10 UP UP 24.00 23.20 31.40 33.00
Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 70.00 DOWN DOWN 63.90 62.40 84.20 87.20
Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 55.50 UP UP 42.00 39.50 57.14 58.00
Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 69.40 UP UP 67.60 67.00 78.50 79.60
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 55.70 UP UP 47.90 45.00 58.40 60.00
Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD) 17.11 UP UP 16.05 15.85 18.00 18.29
National Leasing Holding Co. (NLCS QD) 34.75 DOWN DOWN 32.00 31.00 43.90 45.00
Consumer Goods and Services
Widam Food Co. (QMLS QD)* 56.70 DOWN DOWN 55.30 52.30 69.10 78.50
Industrials
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 159.60 DOWN DOWN 156.45 155.50 175.20 176.80
Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 164.50 DOWN UP 140.00 132.10 172.00 174.00
Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 49.50 UP UP 30.50 29.50 52.00 54.00
Qatari Investors Group (KHCD QD)* 29.45 UP UP 20.36 20.00 30.00 30.75
Real Estate
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 25.05 DOWN DOWN 22.80 19.50 29.25 29.90
United Development Co. (UDCD QD)* 22.80 DOWN DOWN 17.06 16.00 25.30 25.90
Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development (MRDS QD) 11.64 UP UP 10.17 9.42 12.10 12.64
Telecom
Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 142.70 UP UP 108.00 98.10 146.00 148.00
Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 9.20 UP UP 8.90 8.24 9.98 10.20
Transportation
Nakilat (QGTS QD)* 20.47 UP UP 15.08 14.52 21.15 21.50
Milaha (QNNS QD) 77.20 UP UP 58.20 56.70 79.80 81.20