1. Page 1 of 2
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Pull Back
The QE Index continued its decline and slipped around 16 points (-
0.16%) to close the session around 9,580.77. The index momentarily
moved above the 9,600.0 psychological level, but failed to cling on to
it and reversed as buyers backed away from higher prices. The short-
term trend of the index remains weak, and may drift toward 9,532.0
until the 9,600.0 level is not breached on a closing basis. Meanwhile,
both indicators are pointing down, thus supporting our bearish view.
United Development Co.: Short-Term – Pull Back
UDCD penetrated below its support of the 21-day moving average
(currently at QR21.28) yesterday. Moreover, the RSI is moving down
further from the mid-line, while the MACD is about to cross the signal
line into the negative territory, indicating weakness in the stock. We
believe UDCD is trending weak over the past few days and may test
its immediate support at QR20.75. However, a move above the 21-
day moving average on a closing basis may attract buying interest.
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Pull Back
The QERI Index witnessed sustained selling pressure for the third
consecutive day and penetrated below its support of 2,760.96 and the
21-day moving average (currently at 2,751.48). Bears, which were in
full command, pushed the price lower dashing the upward hopes of
reaching 2,800.0. We believe the index may continue to move lower
and test 2,722.24. Conversely, if the index manages to move above
the 21-day moving average, it may halt the bearish trend.
Widam Food Co.: Short-Term – Pull Back
WDAM formed a shooting star pattern on Wednesday, which often
leads to either consolidation or decline. Moreover, the stock declined
yesterday by around 0.38% and fell below the ascending trendline
support, thus providing confirmation of this trend reversal pattern. We
believe, the stock may head lower from the current level and test its
immediate support at the 21-day moving average (currently at
QR51.30). Moreover, the RSI is drifting down from the mid-line.
National Leasing Holding Co.: Short-Term – Pull Back
NLCS dipped below the support of the descending trendline and
QR34.70 and formed an evening star candle pattern. This pattern is
usually a bearish reversal sign. We believe although the stock is
trading close to the support of QR34.20, it seems unlikely that NLCS
may hold on to it, targeting QR33.50. Moreover, the RSI has shown a
bearish divergence indicating a price correction. However, traders
may need to keep a close watch on QR34.70 for any reversal.
Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Dev.: Short-Term – Bounce Back
MRDS found support near the QR11.48 level and reversed as buyers
stepped in. MRDS formed a hammer pattern indicating that the
downtrend may have come to an end. We anticipate the stock to
move above its immediate resistance of the 55-day moving average
(currently at QR11.57) targeting the QR11.60 level. However, a dip
below the 21-day moving average (currently at QR11.55) may result
in a re-test of QR11.48. The MACD is stalling from declining mode.
2. Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Ahmed M. Shehada Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Head of Trading Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is
regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal,
tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS
believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or
warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express
viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report.
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS.
Page 2 of 2
*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55-
day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and
long-term trends.
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine
tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
Definitions:
1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be
considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day
exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa.
Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance
Short Term Long Term First Second First Second
Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 9,580.77 DOWN DOWN 9,500.00 9,440.00 10,200.00 10,350.00
Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 2,741.65 DOWN DOWN 2,700.00 2,600.00 2,950.00 3,000.00
Banks and Financial Services
Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 28.70 DOWN DOWN 24.00 23.20 31.40 33.00
Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 68.30 UP DOWN 63.90 62.40 84.20 87.20
Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 53.90 UP UP 42.00 39.50 57.14 58.00
Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 68.40 UP FLAT 65.00 64.30 78.50 79.60
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 55.60 DOWN FLAT 47.90 45.00 60.80 61.50
Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD) 18.50 DOWN UP 16.05 15.85 19.90 20.75
National Leasing Holding Co. (NLCS QD)* 34.35 DOWN FLAT 32.00 31.00 43.90 45.00
Consumer Goods and Services
Widam Food Co. (WDAM QD)* 52.30 DOWN UP 47.50 46.70 69.10 78.50
Industrials
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 147.50 DOWN DOWN 144.10 142.00 175.20 176.80
Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 156.50 UP FLAT 140.00 132.10 172.00 174.00
Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 51.20 UP UP 30.50 29.50 54.00 55.90
Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 29.00 UP UP 20.36 20.00 31.80 33.50
Real Estate
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 24.98 DOWN FLAT 22.80 19.50 29.25 29.90
United Development Co. (UDCD QD)* 21.20 DOWN FLAT 17.06 16.00 25.30 25.90
Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development (MRDS QD)* 11.55 FLAT FLAT 10.17 9.42 12.65 13.20
Telecom
Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 139.50 UP UP 108.00 98.10 146.00 148.00
Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 9.00 DOWN DOWN 8.50 8.24 9.98 10.20
Transportation
Nakilat (QGTS QD) 19.10 DOWN FLAT 15.08 14.52 21.15 21.70
Milaha (QNNS QD) 79.80 UP UP 58.20 56.70 84.90 86.50