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6 April Daily technical trader


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6 April Daily technical trader

  1. 1. Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Upmove The QE Index gained for the eighth straight session as it closed at a new 52-week high at 11,983.87. However, the index was unable to break the psychologically important 12,000 level, slipping back after touching an intra-day high of 11,998.03. If the index is able to close above the 12,000 level, it may march toward its next resistance level of 12,100. On the other hand, if the index slips back from here, it has an immediate support near the 11,916 level, and then at 11,900. United Development Co.: Short-Term – Pullback UDCD has been making lower highs-lower lows pattern on the charts over the last few months. The stock closed near its resistance level of QR21.00, but was unable to break it. If the stock slips from here, it can fall down toward its support of QR20.70. However, investors should exercise caution if the stock closes above its resistance level of QR21.0. In such a scenario, investors should take a long position in the stock, as it can move toward its next resistance of QR21.24. Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral The QERI Index continued its uptrend, breaking above the psychological level of 3,700 to close at 3,703.89, up 0.73%. The index closed at the highest level of the day, suggesting further upside strength in the index. The RSI is moving higher into the overbought zone, while the MACD continues to diverge on the positive side. Thus, with both indicators positive, we believe the index will continue its bull trend. On the flip side, support is seen near the 3,763 level. Vodafone Qatar: Short-Term – Breakout VFQS broke above its resistance of QR12.66 on Thursday supported by good volumes, to close at QR12.94, up 3.6%. The MACD has started to diverge from the signal line on the positive side, while the RSI continues to trend higher into the overbought zone. The stock is likely to continue its bullish trend and post further highs in the short- term. On the flip side, investors should become cautious if the stock closes below the QR12.66 level. Doha Bank.: Short-Term – Downmove DHBK has fallen over the last three trading sessions. The stock broke below its support level of QR60.0 on Thursday, falling 2.45% on strong volumes. Moreover, the stock closed at its intra-day low of QR59.80, suggesting further weakness. The stock is likely to move lower, with an immediate support provided by the 21-day moving average (currently at QR59.28), below which the next support is at QR58.20. On the flip side, resistance is seen at QR60.0. Al Khalij Commercial Bank: Short-Term – Uptrend KCBK has been on a strong uptrend over the last 2-3 weeks, rebounding from the support of its 55-day moving average. The stock gained 1.2% on Thursday to close at QR22.76, a new 5-year high. The RSI and the MACD continue to indicate further strength in the stock. The stock is likely to face resistance at QR23.05. On the flip side, the stock has support at QR22.30, below which the next support is seen at QR21.80.
  2. 2. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025 Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 11,983.87 UP UP 11,916.92 11,850.00 12,000.00 12,075.00 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 3,703.89 UP UP 3,663.53 3,590.13 3,730.00 3,750.00 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 41.35 UP UP 40.60 40.00 42.00 43.50 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 65.70 UP UP 63.67 61.67 66.10 68.10 Doha Bank (DHBK QD)* 59.80 UP DOWN 59.28 58.20 60.00 63.30 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 75.50 UP DOWN 72.80 71.50 75.00 76.00 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 75.30 UP UP 74.40 72.80 75.80 77.30 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 67.00 UP UP 65.68 64.00 66.90 67.50 Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD)* 22.76 UP UP 22.30 21.80 23.05 23.30 Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Medicare Group (MCGS QD) 74.50 UP UP 71.40 69.00 74.00 74.80 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD) 162.20 FLAT UP 154.90 151.50 159.00 164.00 Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 186.40 UP UP 183.43 181.50 187.50 190.00 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 177.50 UP UP 176.64 174.36 178.18 180.00 Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 87.10 UP UP 86.60 84.80 90.00 92.00 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 55.80 UP DOWN 54.00 52.40 56.20 57.70 Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 37.75 UP UP 37.40 36.80 38.40 39.20 United Development Co. (UDCD QD)* 20.95 FLAT DOWN 20.70 20.50 21.00 21.24 Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 141.90 UP DOWN 139.90 138.50 141.00 143.50 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD)* 12.94 UP UP 12.66 12.25 13.00 13.20 Transportat Nakilat (QGTS QD) 20.62 FLAT DOWN 20.44 20.26 20.66 20.90 Milaha (QNNS QD) 93.40 FLAT FLAT 91.30 89.40 93.00 95.10