Chapter 12
Integrated Water Resources Management
(IWRM) as a Tool for Adaptation to
Climate Change
Prof. Dr. Ali El-Naqa
H...
IWRM can help adaptation to climate change -3-
 Better water management makes
it easier to respond to changes in
water av...
IWRM as a Tool for Adaptation to
Climate Change
Drivers and Impacts of
Climate Change
Outline presentation
• The drivers/physical science basis of
climate change
• The observed and projected impacts on
the wa...
Climate variability and climate
change
 1a – An example of Temperature variability; fluctuates
from observation to observ...
Impact on probability distributions
for temperatures
 Increase in the mean
 Increase in the variance
 Increase in the m...
Variations of deuterium (δD) and
greenhouse gases over 650,000
years
 Deuterium (δD) – a
proxy for local
temperature
 Ca...
RF due to concentrations of CO2, CH4 and N2O over the
last 10,000 years (large panels) and since 1750 (inset
panels)
Figur...
Global RF estimates and ranges in 2005 for
anthropogenic CO2, CH4, N2O and other important
agents and mechanisms
LOSU: Lev...
Links of radiative forcing to
other aspects of climate
change
Observed and projected
temperature change
Figure SPM.5
Multi-model global
averages of surface
warming (relative to
1980–19...
Uncertainty characterization
Terminology Degree of confidence in
being correct
Very High confidence At least 9 out of 10 c...
Likelihood scale
Terminology Likelihood of the occurrence
Virtually certain > 99% probability of occurrence
Very likely > ...
Special Report on Emission
Scenarios (SRES)
Scenarios
considered by
the IPCC in their
Third
Assessment
Report of 2001
IPCC...
Scheme of events: From GHG
emission to climate change
impacts
Observed changes and trends
in physical systems and
biological systems
Locations of significant
changes in data series
of ...
Regional temperature and
precipitation changes
Range of temperature
and precipitation
changes up to the 21st
century acros...
Projections of future climate
change as they relate to
different aspects of water
• Changes in precipitation frequency and...
Climate change impacts on
water quality
More intense rainfall:
• Increase in suspended solids/turbidity
• Pollutants (fert...
Lake Tanganyika: Trends in
temperature and oxygenated
depth150 m
600 m
Lake Tanganyika: Impacts of
climate change on production
Increased thermal stability and decline in wind velocity:
 Reduc...
Projected risks due to critical
climate change impacts on
ecosystems
Climate change impacts on
ecological processes
Food chain: Oak – butterfly –
great tit
Global
warming
1 C temperature rise: 100 km shift in biome
Global distribution
biomes
Average temperature (° C)
Annualprecipitation(cm)
Examples of range shifts and
changes in population densities
• Extension of southern species to the north
• Decline in kri...
Key issues facing ecosystems
under climate change
• Ecosystems tolerate some level of CC and, in some form
or another, wil...
IWRM as a Tool for Adaptation to
Climate Change
Basic Principles and Elements of
Adaptation Strategies
Goal and objectives of the session
At the end of this session, participants will:
• Be able to identify the main principle...
What is adaptation?
Adaptation is a process by which
individuals, communities and countries
seek to cope with the conseque...
Variations
Rational decision-making in the area of hard and soft solutions and their
combination has to be based on a prop...
Extreme events
Adaptation chain
Prevent
Improve
resilience
Prepare
Respond
Recover
Basic principles
• Action based on assessment and evaluation  application
of precautionary principle to be considered
• A...
Basic principles -2-
• Uncertainty characterization required along
the entire process
Concept may not be well understood ...
Basic principles -3-
• Strong interdepartmental (interministerial) and intersectoral
cooperation
• Stakeholder involvement...
Basic principles -4-
• Estimating costs of a measure is a prerequisite
for ranking a measure and including it in the
budge...
Development of an adaptation
strategy
Information needs
Impact assessment
Vulnerability assessment
Financial arrangements
...
Process
• Assessing current vulnerability
• Assessing future climate risks
• Formulating an adaptation strategy
• Monitori...
• Assessment of the status of all water resources
• Specification of objectives for individual water
resources
• Predictio...
Opportunities for
adaptation
• Planning new investments, or for capacity expansion
• Operation and regulation of existing ...
Steps for an adaptation project
• Scope project and define objective
• Establish a project team
• Review and synthesise ex...
Steps
• Scope project and define objective
– Establish the stakeholder process
– Prioritise the key system
– Review the po...
Setting objectives of an
adaptation project
• Increase the robustness of infrastructure designs
• Increase the flexibility...
Steps
• Scope project and define objective
• Establish a project team
• Review existing information
– Review and synthesiz...
Steps
• Scope project and define objective
• Establish a project team
• Review and sysnthesise existing information
• Desi...
Challenges to making
adaptations
• Insufficient monitoring and observation systems
• Lack of basic information
• Settlemen...
Adaptive capacity is
dependent on:
• Economic resources
• Human resources
• Information and skills
• Technology
• Institut...
Conclusions
• Adaptation to present climate variability and extreme events forms
the basis for reducing vulnerability to f...
Think about it
What is the role of sectoral adaptation
planning? What is its potential?
Can you give examples of cross-sec...
Thank you
Additional Material
The situation to be avoided...
"… but not a drop to drink."
“Water, water everywhere …
Adapted from A.M. Noorian
Information, information
everywhere ...
… but none to help me think
Current pressures
Future impacts
Acceptable level of
u...
National Adaptation
Programme of Action
• Objective: Serve as a simplified and direct channel of
communication for informa...
Nairobi Work Programme (2005–
2010)
• Improve understanding and assessment of
impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to
cli...
Areas of work under the
Nairobi Work Programme• Methods and tools
• Data and observations
• Climate modelling, scenarios a...
Building resilience
Energy and water development
are interrelated
Source: Jonch-Clausen,2007
Carbon
energy
source?
Water developments with
serious energy footprints
• Desalination of seawater for water supply requiring huge
amounts of en...
Energy developments with
serious water footprints
• Major hydropower dams in dry tropical climates,
resulting in large wat...
Information inputs
Climate Information
Historical data for trends
Climate predictions
Climate scenarios
Physical informati...
IWRM as a Tool for Adaptation to
Climate Change
Impacts on Water Use
Sectors and Impact Assessment
Techniques
OUTLINE
• Impacts of climate change on water resources
• Projected climate changes by region
• Impacts climate change on s...
Projected change in hydro
meteorological variables
 Based on 15 Global
Circulation Models (GCMs)
 SRES A1B scenario
 Fo...
Inferences
• Heightened water scarcities in several semi-
arid and arid regions including
– Mediterranean Basin
– Western ...
Projected change spatial patterns of
precipitation intensity and dry days
 Based on 9 GCMs
 SRES A1B scenario
 Changes ...
Projected changes by region
Africa:
• Water scarcity conditions in northern and southern Africa
• More precipitation in Ea...
Projected changes by region -2-
Australia and New Zealand:
• Runoff in the Darling Basin expected to decline
• Drought fre...
Projected changes by region -3-
Latin America:
• Number of wet days expected to increase over parts of
south-eastern South...
Major water resources systems
and sectors to be impacted by
climate change
 Systems and sectors connected to human
develo...
Impacts of CC on food production
Biophysical Socio-economic
Physiological effects on crops,
pasture, forests, livestock (q...
Agriculture
• Possible positive impacts because of increased CO2
concentrations and length of growing season
• Strongly de...
Fisheries
• Increased stress on fish populations:
– Higher temperatures > less oxygen available
– Increased oxygen demand
...
Impacts of CC on water supply
• Further reduction of water for drinking and hygiene
• Lowering efficiency of sewerage syst...
Impacts of CC on health
Mediating process Health outcome
Direct effects
Change in the frequency or intensity of
extreme we...
Impacts of CC on energy sector
• Temperature increase leading to increased energy demand
and less availability of cooling ...
Impacts of CC on transportation
• Water links with transportation
– Use of drainage systems for navigation
– Drainage inte...
IWRM as a Tool for
Adaptation to Climate
Change
IMPACT ASSESSMENT TECHNIQUES
CCIAV assessment approaches
(Frameworks)
• Impact assessment
• Adaptation assessment
• Vulnerability assessment
• Integrat...
Characteristics of CCIAV assessment approaches*
Source: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.
General Impact
Assessment Approach
Clim ate change
scenarios
Biophysical im pacts
Socioeconom ic im pacts
Autonom ous
adap...
The 7-step assessment
framework of IPCC
1. Define problem
2. Select method
3. Test method/sensitivity
4. Select scenarios
...
Three types of climate change
scenarios
– Scenarios based on outputs from GCMs
– Synthetic scenarios
– Analogue scenarios.
General Circulation Models
(GCMs)
• Computer applications designed to simulate the Earth’s climate
system for the purpose ...
Types of GCM runs
• Equilibrium:
– Both current and future climates are assumed to be in state of
equilibrium
– Simulation...
Advantages/disadvantages of
using GCM
to generate climate scenarios
• Advantages:
– Produces globally consistent estimates...
Dynamic downscaling
Dynamic
downscaling is
done by nesting
a fine-scale
climate model in
a coarse-scale
model
Synthetic
scenarios
• Based on combined incremental changes in meteorological
variables such as (temperature, precipitatio...
Advantages/disadvantages of
synthetic scenarios
• Advantages:
– Inexpensive, easy to apply and comprehensible by policy ma...
Analogue
scenarios
• Temporal analogue scenarios based on using past warm climates as
scenarios of future climate
• Spatia...
Water resources and climate
change
• Assessment of impact of climate change on water resources and
identification of adapt...
incorporates
natural and human-made
components
Source: UNFCCC Handbook on Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment.
Modeling of water
resources systems
• Two general types: optimization and simulation models
• Simulation models are suitab...
IWRM as a Tool for Adaptation to
Climate Change
Adaptation in Water
Management
Goal and objectives of the session
Goal
Consider how adaptation to climate change can be incorporated
in water resources m...
Outline presentation
 How can IWRM help?
 Adaptation at different levels
 Climate change in IWRM planning
 Within rive...
Introduction
IWRM is to ensure:
• Sufficient access to the resource
• Availability for productive use
• Environmental func...
How can IWRM help?
Climate change will have big impact on water resources:
IWRM provides a policy and decision-making fra...
How can IWRM help?
Improving the way we use and manage water today will make it easier
to address the challenges of tomorr...
Why is it important to address climate change manifestations in
water management?
 Impacts of climate change on freshwate...
Possible management measures
In a situation of water stress:
 Water pricing
 Seasonal water rationing during times of sh...
Possible management measures
In a situation of water quality risks:
 Improvements to drainage systems
 Upgrading or stan...
Adaptation at different levels
 Transboundary level
- Treaties and agreements
 National enabling environment
- Water law...
Adaptation at transboundary level
• International water agreements may be
impacted by CC
Review agreements.
Include flex...
Improving the enabling
environment
• Water laws:
Do they support the integrated (IWRM)
approach?
Do they allow flexibili...
Improving the enabling
environment -2-
• Institutions: Climate change affects all sectors.
Are the water management insti...
Climate change in IWRM planning
When initiating the planning
process, climate change
impacts need to be
integrated
In the ...
Adaptation at river basin level
Typical functions of water resources
management are:
•Water allocation
•Pollution control
...
Match IWRM functions with measures and effects
Possible adaptation
measures
IWRM function Anticipated effect
Water pricing...
Match IRWM functions with measures and effects
Possible adaptation
measures
IWRM function Anticipated effect
Reuse and rec...
Adaptation means action
How do we mobilize for
action?
The right message for
decision makers
The right message for
commu...
Think about it
What conditions make CC adaptation
possible now where I live ?
114
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  • Methods of climate change impact, adaptation and vulnerability (CCIAV) assessment have proliferated significantly as climate change has become a dominant mainstream issue. They have matured from being research oriented undertaking to catering for policy and planning decision-making. CCIAV can be classified into five main approaches: Impact assessment; Adaptation assessment; Vulnerability assessment; Integrated assessment; and Risk management.
  • CCIAV approaches differ in the purpose and focus of assessment, available methods and approach to uncertainty. They focus on managing uncertainty rather than reducing it and is shifting from research to supporting decision-making at different levels. Involvement of stakeholders is given higher priority.Impact Assessment Approach: The standard “first generation” approach that still dominates the CCIAV assessment literature. Developed based on the IPCC 7-step assessment method, it is a top-down scenario driven approach based on assessing the likely impact of climate change under (a) given scenario(s), and assess the effectiveness of different mitigation and adaptation alternatives in reducing vulnerability to climate change.Adaptation and Vulnerability-based approaches: Adaptation approaches assess alternative adaptation measures to enhance the resilience of a system exposed to the risk of climate change. In contrast, vulnerability assessment focuses on characterizing the risks themselves to support efforts to reduce their impact. The two approaches are interrelated and aim at assessing and enhancing the adaptive capacity of a system exposed to climate change. Both are considered bottom-up approaches that emphasize stakeholders involvement.Integrated Assessment Approach: This approach provides a platform to coordinate and represent interactions and feedbacks among different CCIAV assessment studies. It also deals directly with mitigation analysis and integrated assessment of mitigation and adaptation. Risk Assessment Approach: It caters directly to policy and decision-making. And emphasizes the characterization and management of uncertainties. Similar to the integrated assessment approach it also deals directly with mitigation analysis and integrated assessment of mitigation and adaptation.
  • The standard ‘first generation’ approach that still dominates the CCIAV assessment literature. Developed based on the IPCC 7-step assessment method, it is a top-down scenario driven approach based on assessing the likely impact of climate change under (a) given scenario(s), and assesses the effectiveness of different mitigation and adaptation alternatives in reducing vulnerability to climate change.
  • Chapter 12 iwrm as a tool for cc adaptation.ppt

    1. 1. Chapter 12 Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) as a Tool for Adaptation to Climate Change Prof. Dr. Ali El-Naqa Hashemite University June 2013
    2. 2. IWRM can help adaptation to climate change -3-  Better water management makes it easier to respond to changes in water availability.  Basin planning allows for risk identification and mitigation.  Stakeholder participation helps in mobilization for action, risk assessment.  Good management systems allows the right incentives to be passed on to water users.
    3. 3. IWRM as a Tool for Adaptation to Climate Change Drivers and Impacts of Climate Change
    4. 4. Outline presentation • The drivers/physical science basis of climate change • The observed and projected impacts on the water cycle • The consequences for water use and ecosystem functioning. This session will address:
    5. 5. Climate variability and climate change  1a – An example of Temperature variability; fluctuates from observation to observation around a mean value  1b to 1d – Combined variability with climate change  2a – An increase of variability with no change in the mean  2b and 2c – Combined increased variability with climate change.
    6. 6. Impact on probability distributions for temperatures  Increase in the mean  Increase in the variance  Increase in the mean and variance.
    7. 7. Variations of deuterium (δD) and greenhouse gases over 650,000 years  Deuterium (δD) – a proxy for local temperature  Carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) – all have increased over past 10 years. Variations obtained from trapped air within the ice cores and from recent atmospheric measurements
    8. 8. RF due to concentrations of CO2, CH4 and N2O over the last 10,000 years (large panels) and since 1750 (inset panels) Figure SPM.1 Radiative forcing  There is a balance between incoming solar radiation and outgoing terrestrial radiation.  Any process that alters the energy balance of the earth–atmosphere system is known as a radiative forcing mechanism.
    9. 9. Global RF estimates and ranges in 2005 for anthropogenic CO2, CH4, N2O and other important agents and mechanisms LOSU: Level of scientific understanding
    10. 10. Links of radiative forcing to other aspects of climate change
    11. 11. Observed and projected temperature change Figure SPM.5 Multi-model global averages of surface warming (relative to 1980–1999) for the scenarios A2, A1B and B1, shown as continuations of the 20th century simulations
    12. 12. Uncertainty characterization Terminology Degree of confidence in being correct Very High confidence At least 9 out of 10 chance High confidence About 8 out of 10 chance M edium confidence About 5 out of 10 chance Low confidence About 2 out of 10 chance Very low confidence Less than 1 out of 10 chance Quantitatively calibrated levels of confidence
    13. 13. Likelihood scale Terminology Likelihood of the occurrence Virtually certain > 99% probability of occurrence Very likely > 90% probability Likely > 66% probability About as likely as not 33 to 66% probability Unlikely < 33% probability Very unlikely < 10% probability Exceptionally unlikely < 1% probability
    14. 14. Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) Scenarios considered by the IPCC in their Third Assessment Report of 2001 IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
    15. 15. Scheme of events: From GHG emission to climate change impacts
    16. 16. Observed changes and trends in physical systems and biological systems Locations of significant changes in data series of physical systems and biological systems, together with surface air temperature changes over the period 1970–2004
    17. 17. Regional temperature and precipitation changes Range of temperature and precipitation changes up to the 21st century across recent (fifteen models – red bars) and pre-TAR (seven models – blue bars) AOGCM projections under the SRES A2 emissions scenarios for 32 world regions, expressed as rate of change per century
    18. 18. Projections of future climate change as they relate to different aspects of water • Changes in precipitation frequency and intensity • Changes in average annual run-off • Impacts of sea level rise on coastal zones • Water quality changes • Groundwater changes • Impacts on ecosystems.
    19. 19. Climate change impacts on water quality More intense rainfall: • Increase in suspended solids/turbidity • Pollutants (fertilizers, pesticides, municipal wastewater) • Increase in waterborne diseases Reduced/increased water flow in rivers: • Less/more dilution of pollution • Fluctuations in salinity estuaries Lowering water levels in lakes: • Re-suspension of bottom sediments • increased turbidity • liberating compounds with negative impacts Higher surface water temperatures: • Algal blooms and increase in bacteria, fungi > toxins • Less oxygen.
    20. 20. Lake Tanganyika: Trends in temperature and oxygenated depth150 m 600 m
    21. 21. Lake Tanganyika: Impacts of climate change on production Increased thermal stability and decline in wind velocity:  Reduced mixing depth  Diminished deep-water nutrient inputs to surface waters  Decline in primary productivity  Decline in pelagic fisheries.
    22. 22. Projected risks due to critical climate change impacts on ecosystems
    23. 23. Climate change impacts on ecological processes
    24. 24. Food chain: Oak – butterfly – great tit
    25. 25. Global warming 1 C temperature rise: 100 km shift in biome
    26. 26. Global distribution biomes Average temperature (° C) Annualprecipitation(cm)
    27. 27. Examples of range shifts and changes in population densities • Extension of southern species to the north • Decline in krill in the Southern Ocean • Occurrence of sub-tropical plankton species in temperate waters • Changes in geographical distributions of fish species • Replacement of cold-water invertebrate and fish species in the Rhône River by thermophilic species • Bird species that no longer migrate out of Europe during the winter • Extension of alpine plants to higher altitudes • Spread of disease vectors (e.g. malaria, Lyme disease, bluetongue) and damaging insects.
    28. 28. Key issues facing ecosystems under climate change • Ecosystems tolerate some level of CC and, in some form or another, will persist • They are increasingly subjected to other human-induced pressures • Exceeding critical thresholds and triggering non-linear responses > novel states that are poorly understood • Time-lags • Species extinction (global vs local)/invasion exotics.
    29. 29. IWRM as a Tool for Adaptation to Climate Change Basic Principles and Elements of Adaptation Strategies
    30. 30. Goal and objectives of the session At the end of this session, participants will: • Be able to identify the main principles and processes that have been proposed for the process of preparing adaptation strategies • Know major sources of substantive guidance for adaptation planning • Be able to identify the linkages between adaptation plans and mitigation plans, as well as possible conflicts between the two.
    31. 31. What is adaptation? Adaptation is a process by which individuals, communities and countries seek to cope with the consequences of climate change, including climate variability. It should lead to harmonization with country’s more pressing development priorities such as poverty alleviation, food security and disaster management.
    32. 32. Variations Rational decision-making in the area of hard and soft solutions and their combination has to be based on a proper, permanent planning process. Proactive adaptation – ‘no regrets’ – strategic planning, incremental implementation, and cost-effective. Autonomous adaptation – ad hoc, cumulative, tactical adjustments to demands, needs, and demographic patterns and technological advances and ecological constraints. Progress as data, events and uncertainties are clarified.
    33. 33. Extreme events Adaptation chain Prevent Improve resilience Prepare Respond Recover
    34. 34. Basic principles • Action based on assessment and evaluation  application of precautionary principle to be considered • Adaptation to short-term climate variability and extreme events is a basis for reducing vulnerability to longer-term climate change • Adaptation policy and measures are assessed in a socio- economic development context • Adaptation policy to take social, economic and environmental concerns into consideration and ensure that the needs of the present generation are met without compromising the needs of future generations.
    35. 35. Basic principles -2- • Uncertainty characterization required along the entire process Concept may not be well understood at political and local levels Stakeholders must be part of the impact assessment process to own the results Communication strategy essential.
    36. 36. Basic principles -3- • Strong interdepartmental (interministerial) and intersectoral cooperation • Stakeholder involvement  identification as part of the assessment process • Acceptable levels of risk • No-regret and low-regret options as a priority • Short-, mid- and long-term measures to be clearly brought in sequence.
    37. 37. Basic principles -4- • Estimating costs of a measure is a prerequisite for ranking a measure and including it in the budget or in a wider adaptation programme. Cost of inaction? • Avoiding maladaptation through strong assessment process, stakeholder involvement and considering the externalities of various adaptations.
    38. 38. Development of an adaptation strategy Information needs Impact assessment Vulnerability assessment Financial arrangements Evaluate Policy, legal and institutional framework Understand the vulnerability Development of measures Information needs Impact assessment Vulnerability assessment Financial arrangements Evaluate Policy, legal and institutional framework Understand the vulnerability Development of measures
    39. 39. Process • Assessing current vulnerability • Assessing future climate risks • Formulating an adaptation strategy • Monitoring, evaluation and review • Engaging stakeholders in the adaptation process • Assessing and enhancing adaptive capacity.
    40. 40. • Assessment of the status of all water resources • Specification of objectives for individual water resources • Prediction of trends • Associated assessment of risk for projects already taken • Specification of measures for those projects at risk of not meeting the objectives • Monitoring of the impacts of measures for further assessments and decision-making. In WRM, the process involves
    41. 41. Opportunities for adaptation • Planning new investments, or for capacity expansion • Operation and regulation of existing systems for optimal use and accommodating new purposes (e.g. ecology, climate change, vulnerability) • Maintenance and major rehabilitation of existing systems (e.g. dam safety) • Modifications in processes and demands (water conservation, pricing, regulation) • Introduce new efficient technologies (desalination, biotechnology, irrigation, recycling, solar, etc.).
    42. 42. Steps for an adaptation project • Scope project and define objective • Establish a project team • Review and synthesise existing information • Design project for adaptation.
    43. 43. Steps • Scope project and define objective – Establish the stakeholder process – Prioritise the key system – Review the policy process – Define project objectives – Develop a communication plan • Establish a project team • Review and sysnthesise existing information • Design project for adaptation
    44. 44. Setting objectives of an adaptation project • Increase the robustness of infrastructure designs • Increase the flexibility and resilience of the natural systems • Enhance the adaptive capacity • Reverse trends that increase vulnerability • Improve people’s awareness and preparedness for future climate change • Integrate adaptation in development planning.
    45. 45. Steps • Scope project and define objective • Establish a project team • Review existing information – Review and synthesize existing information – Describe adaptation policies and measures in place – Develop indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity. • Design project for adaptation.
    46. 46. Steps • Scope project and define objective • Establish a project team • Review and sysnthesise existing information • Design project for adaptation – Select approach and methods – Describe process for assessment of future vulnerability – Develop monitoring and adaptation plan – Develop terms of reference for project implementation.
    47. 47. Challenges to making adaptations • Insufficient monitoring and observation systems • Lack of basic information • Settlements in vulnerable areas • Appropriate political, technological and institutional framework • Lack of capacity • Low income.
    48. 48. Adaptive capacity is dependent on: • Economic resources • Human resources • Information and skills • Technology • Institutions • Infrastructure • Regional and international cooperation.
    49. 49. Conclusions • Adaptation to present climate variability and extreme events forms the basis for reducing vulnerability to future climate change. • The adaptation strategy has to be developed within the development context of the system. • Adaptation happens at various levels within the society – national, regional, local, community and individual. • The adaptation process is as important as the adaptation strategy.
    50. 50. Think about it What is the role of sectoral adaptation planning? What is its potential? Can you give examples of cross-sectoral adaptation planning?
    51. 51. Thank you
    52. 52. Additional Material
    53. 53. The situation to be avoided...
    54. 54. "… but not a drop to drink." “Water, water everywhere … Adapted from A.M. Noorian
    55. 55. Information, information everywhere ... … but none to help me think Current pressures Future impacts Acceptable level of uncertainty for action Timing of changes Immediate expected results Adapted from A.M. Noorian
    56. 56. National Adaptation Programme of Action • Objective: Serve as a simplified and direct channel of communication for information relating to the urgent and immediate adaptation needs of the LDCs • Needs addressed through projects and activities that may include capacity building and policy reform • Available for some 38 LDCs  to be taken into account when formulating IWRM plans!
    57. 57. Nairobi Work Programme (2005– 2010) • Improve understanding and assessment of impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change • Make informed decisions on practical adaptation actions and measures to respond to climate change on a sound scientific, technical and socio-economic basis, taking into account current and future climate change and variability.
    58. 58. Areas of work under the Nairobi Work Programme• Methods and tools • Data and observations • Climate modelling, scenarios and downscaling • Climate related risks and extreme events • Socio-economic information • Adaptation planning and practices • Research • Technologies for adaptation • Economic diversification.
    59. 59. Building resilience
    60. 60. Energy and water development are interrelated Source: Jonch-Clausen,2007 Carbon energy source?
    61. 61. Water developments with serious energy footprints • Desalination of seawater for water supply requiring huge amounts of energy • Large-scale pumping for irrigation • Large-scale pumping for inter-basin transfers • Competing water uses leading to reduced inflow to hydropower dams, as e.g. upstream irrigation, resulting in increased thermal energy production. Source: Jonch-Clausen,2007
    62. 62. Energy developments with serious water footprints • Major hydropower dams in dry tropical climates, resulting in large water losses and changes in downstream flow regimes • Production of first generation biofuels in tropical developing countries suffering water scarcity already, hampering achievement of the MDG targets on poverty and hunger • Shale oil development requiring huge amounts of water • Energy crisis in Germany in 2003 due to inadequate availability of cooling water for nuclear power plants. Source: Jonch-Clausen,2007
    63. 63. Information inputs Climate Information Historical data for trends Climate predictions Climate scenarios Physical information Geophysical information Social development scenarios Sectoral information Technological options Supply–demand situations Economic information
    64. 64. IWRM as a Tool for Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts on Water Use Sectors and Impact Assessment Techniques
    65. 65. OUTLINE • Impacts of climate change on water resources • Projected climate changes by region • Impacts climate change on selected sectors • Approaches of Climate Change Impact, Adaptation and Vulnerability (CCIAV) Assessment • Climate change scenarios • Water resources and climate change • Modelling of water resources systems.
    66. 66. Projected change in hydro meteorological variables  Based on 15 Global Circulation Models (GCMs)  SRES A1B scenario  Four variables: ― precipitation ― evaporation ― soil moisture ― runoff  Annual mean changes for 2080–2099 relative to 1980–1999  Regions where models agree on the sign of change are stippled.
    67. 67. Inferences • Heightened water scarcities in several semi- arid and arid regions including – Mediterranean Basin – Western USA – Southern Africa – North-eastern Brazil. • Precipitation is expected to increase at high latitudes (e.g. northern Europe) and in some subtropical regions.
    68. 68. Projected change spatial patterns of precipitation intensity and dry days  Based on 9 GCMs  SRES A1B scenario  Changes in spatial pattern of ―precipitation intensity ―dry days  Annual mean changes for 2080–2099 relative to 1980–1999  Stippling: at least 5 out of 9 models concur denoting that change is significant Precipitation intensity Dry days
    69. 69. Projected changes by region Africa: • Water scarcity conditions in northern and southern Africa • More precipitation in Eastern and western Africa • Nile Delta expected to be impacted by rising sea levels. Asia: • Reduce precipitation in the headwaters of the Euphrates and Tigris • Winter precipitation to decrease over the Indian subcontinent, and monsoon rain events to intensify • Maximum and minimum monthly flows of Mekong expected to increase and decrease, respectively • Decline of glaciers is expected to continue reducing water supplies to large populations.
    70. 70. Projected changes by region -2- Australia and New Zealand: • Runoff in the Darling Basin expected to decline • Drought frequency to increase in the eastern Australia Europe: • Mean annual precipitation to increase in Northern Europe and decrease further south • Mediterranean and some parts of central and Eastern Europe to be more prone to droughts • Flood risk expected to increase in Eastern and Northern Europe and the Atlantic coast.
    71. 71. Projected changes by region -3- Latin America: • Number of wet days expected to increase over parts of south-eastern South America and central Amazonia • Extreme dry seasons to become more frequent in Central America • Glaciers are expected to continue the observed declining trend. North America: • Climate change to constrain already over-allocated water resources, especially in the semi-arid western USA • Water levels to drop in the Great Lakes • Shrinkage of glaciers to continue.
    72. 72. Major water resources systems and sectors to be impacted by climate change  Systems and sectors connected to human development and environment: •Urban infrastructure: water supply and sanitation, urban drainage and solids •Water related natural disasters: floods, droughts, landslide and avalanche •Rural development: agriculture, food security, livelihoods and environment •Energy: demand and production (hydropower) •Transportation: navigation •Health: Human and animals •Environment: system sustainability in wetlands, water quality, forest burn, etc.
    73. 73. Impacts of CC on food production Biophysical Socio-economic Physiological effects on crops, pasture, forests, livestock (quantity, quality) Changes in land, soil, water resources (quantity, quality) Increased weed and pest challenges Shifts in spatial and temporal distribution of impacts Sea level rise, changes to ocean salinity and acidity Sea temperature rise causing fish to inhabit different ranges. Decline in yields and production Reduced marginal GDP from agriculture Fluctuations in world market prices Changes in geographical distribution of trade regimes Increased number of people at risk of hunger and food insecurity Migration and civil unrest.
    74. 74. Agriculture • Possible positive impacts because of increased CO2 concentrations and length of growing season • Strongly dependent on water (amount and timing): – Rain-fed agriculture: precipitation – Irrigated agriculture: water supply • Examples: – Warly snowmelt > water shortage in summer – Insufficient treated wastewater used for irrigation > water-born diseases – Too much precipitation: direct damage to crops, soil erosion – Too little precipitation: direct damage to crops • Strong regional and local differences: those least able to cope (smallholder farmers in marginal areas) will be affected hardest.
    75. 75. Fisheries • Increased stress on fish populations: – Higher temperatures > less oxygen available – Increased oxygen demand – Deteriorated water quality – Reduced flows • Other human impacts probably greater: – Overfishing – Flood mitigation – Water abstractions • Lake Tanganyika: reduced primary productivity due to decreased depth of thermocline.
    76. 76. Impacts of CC on water supply • Further reduction of water for drinking and hygiene • Lowering efficiency of sewerage systems > more micro- organisms in raw water supply • Increased concentration of pollutants (less dilution) • More overflows in sewerage systems with increased precipitation > spread of waterborne diseases • Increased salinity water resources.
    77. 77. Impacts of CC on health Mediating process Health outcome Direct effects Change in the frequency or intensity of extreme weather events (e.g. storms, hurricanes, cyclones) Deaths, injuries, psychological disorders; damage to public health infrastructure Indirect effects Changed local ecology of water borne and food borne infective agents Changed incidence of diarrhoeal and other infectious diseases Changed food productivity through changes in climate and associated pests and diseases Malnutrition and hunger Sea level rise with population displacement and damage to infrastructure Increased risk of infectious diseases and psychological disorders Social, economic and demographic dislocation through effects on economy, infrastructure and resource supply. Wide range of public health consequences: mental health and nutritional impairment, infectious diseases, civil strife.
    78. 78. Impacts of CC on energy sector • Temperature increase leading to increased energy demand and less availability of cooling water • Energy system highly dependent on hydropower, i.e. on water availability • Periods of low flow can create conflicts with other users.
    79. 79. Impacts of CC on transportation • Water links with transportation – Use of drainage systems for navigation – Drainage interface with the design of transportation infrastructure networks • Implications of climate change – Reduction in the flow quantity or its distribution over the year shall result in reduced river levels • Big boats cannot be used thus more boats are required for the same loads, increasing cost, energy use and emissions – Increase in the rainfall intensity can severely
    80. 80. IWRM as a Tool for Adaptation to Climate Change IMPACT ASSESSMENT TECHNIQUES
    81. 81. CCIAV assessment approaches (Frameworks) • Impact assessment • Adaptation assessment • Vulnerability assessment • Integrated assessment • Risk management. CCIAV: Climate Change Impact, Adaptation and Vulnerability
    82. 82. Characteristics of CCIAV assessment approaches* Source: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.
    83. 83. General Impact Assessment Approach Clim ate change scenarios Biophysical im pacts Socioeconom ic im pacts Autonom ous adaptation Integration Vulnerability Purposeful adaptations Baseline Scenarios • Population • G NP • Technology • Institutions • Environm ent
    84. 84. The 7-step assessment framework of IPCC 1. Define problem 2. Select method 3. Test method/sensitivity 4. Select scenarios 5. Assess biophysical/socio-economic impacts 6. Assess autonomous adjustments 7. Evaluate adaptation strategies.
    85. 85. Three types of climate change scenarios – Scenarios based on outputs from GCMs – Synthetic scenarios – Analogue scenarios.
    86. 86. General Circulation Models (GCMs) • Computer applications designed to simulate the Earth’s climate system for the purpose of projecting potential climate scenarios • Range in complexity from simple energy balance models to 3D General Circulation Models (GCM) • The state-of-the-art in climate modeling is represented by the Atmosphere-Ocean GCM (AOGCM).
    87. 87. Types of GCM runs • Equilibrium: – Both current and future climates are assumed to be in state of equilibrium – Simulations are executed assuming doubling or quadrupling of GHGs concentrations – Low computation cost, yet unrealistic. • Transient: – Future climate is simulated assuming a steady increase in CO2 – Costly to run and needs a warming period to avoid underestimating the earlier stage after present.
    88. 88. Advantages/disadvantages of using GCM to generate climate scenarios • Advantages: – Produces globally consistent estimates of larger number of key climate variables (e.g. temperature, precipitation, pressure, wind, humidity, solar radiation) for projected changes in GHGs based on scientifically credible approach • Disadvantages: – Simulations of current regional climate often inaccurate – Geographic and temporal scale not fine enough for many impact assessments – May not represent the full range of potential climate changes in a region.
    89. 89. Dynamic downscaling Dynamic downscaling is done by nesting a fine-scale climate model in a coarse-scale model
    90. 90. Synthetic scenarios • Based on combined incremental changes in meteorological variables such as (temperature, precipitation) • Can be based on synthetic records created from combining baseline data with temperature changes, e.g. +2oC, and precipitation changes, e.g. 10% • Changes in meteorological variables are assumed to be annually uniform; few studies introduced temporal and spatial variability into synthetic scenarios.
    91. 91. Advantages/disadvantages of synthetic scenarios • Advantages: – Inexpensive, easy to apply and comprehensible by policy makers and stakeholders – Represent wide spectrum of potential climate changes – Identify sensitivity of given sectors to changes in specific meteorological variables. • Disadvantages – Assumption of uniform change of meteorological variables over large areas may produce scenarios that are not physically possible. – May not be consistent with estimates of changes in average global climate – Synthetic meteorological variables may not be internally consistent with each other, e.g. increased precipitation is expected to be associated with increased clouds and humidity.
    92. 92. Analogue scenarios • Temporal analogue scenarios based on using past warm climates as scenarios of future climate • Spatial analogue scenarios based on using contemporary climates in other locations as scenarios of future climate in study areas IPCC has made recommendation against using the analogue scenarios since temporal analogues of global warming were not caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and that no valid basis exists that spatial analogues are likely to be similar to those in the future.
    93. 93. Water resources and climate change • Assessment of impact of climate change on water resources and identification of adaptation strategies requires consideration of both its biophysical and socioeconomic aspects. • Integrated water resources management (IWRM) provides an ideal platform to carry out these tasks.
    94. 94. incorporates natural and human-made components Source: UNFCCC Handbook on Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment.
    95. 95. Modeling of water resources systems • Two general types: optimization and simulation models • Simulation models are suitable for scenario-based climate impact assessment studies.
    96. 96. IWRM as a Tool for Adaptation to Climate Change Adaptation in Water Management
    97. 97. Goal and objectives of the session Goal Consider how adaptation to climate change can be incorporated in water resources management at all levels. Learning objectives  Understand the water resources management instruments available to address climate change manifestations.  Strategize the use of different policies and instruments.  Promote adaptation at the appropriate level.
    98. 98. Outline presentation  How can IWRM help?  Adaptation at different levels  Climate change in IWRM planning  Within river basin management  Adaptation at appropriate level.
    99. 99. Introduction IWRM is to ensure: • Sufficient access to the resource • Availability for productive use • Environmental functions of water What do we need to do in water management to address climate change issues?
    100. 100. How can IWRM help? Climate change will have big impact on water resources: IWRM provides a policy and decision-making framework for water resource management actions. IWRM provides the planning framework for water. An IWRM approach provides a system for stakeholder consultation and interaction.
    101. 101. How can IWRM help? Improving the way we use and manage water today will make it easier to address the challenges of tomorrow Adaptation through ‘hard (infrastructure) and ‘soft’ (management, people, environment) measures. The three main challenges are: Establishing dynamic organizations able to respond strategically and effectively to changing circumstances are needed Making decisions based on forecasts rather than historical data, and on managing uncertainty Securing funding. 101
    102. 102. Why is it important to address climate change manifestations in water management?  Impacts of climate change on freshwater systems  The number of people in severely stressed river basins is projected to increase significantly  Semi-arid and arid areas are particularly exposed to the impact of climate change on freshwater  Higher water temperatures, increased precipitation intensity and longer periods of low flows lead to more pollution and impacts on ecosystems, human health and water system reliability and operating costs  Climate change affects the function and operation of existing water infrastructure and water management practices  Adaptation procedures and risk management practices for the water sector are being developed. (Source: IPCC, 2007) 102
    103. 103. Possible management measures In a situation of water stress:  Water pricing  Seasonal water rationing during times of shortage  Adapt industrial and agricultural production to reduce water wastage  Increase capture and storage of surface run-off  Reuse or recycle waste water after treatment  Desalination of salty or brackish water (costly)  Better use of groundwater resources (risk: siltation)  Rainwater harvesting.
    104. 104. Possible management measures In a situation of water quality risks:  Improvements to drainage systems  Upgrading or standardizing of water treatment  Better monitoring  Special measures during high precipitation seasons. What kind of special measures? 104
    105. 105. Adaptation at different levels  Transboundary level - Treaties and agreements  National enabling environment - Water laws and institutions  National planning - IWRM plans, policies and strategies  Basin water management - Functions of water management.
    106. 106. Adaptation at transboundary level • International water agreements may be impacted by CC Review agreements. Include flexibility to respond to CC at a future time. Include actions considered relevant now, such as strengthened cooperation on water management.
    107. 107. Improving the enabling environment • Water laws: Do they support the integrated (IWRM) approach? Do they allow flexibility of action for possible CC impacts? • Reallocation of water in case of reduced resources • Environmental protection • Pollution management.
    108. 108. Improving the enabling environment -2- • Institutions: Climate change affects all sectors. Are the water management institutions based on stakeholder collaboration? Is there a framework to enable collective planning and decision making on climate and water? The sooner this starts the better.
    109. 109. Climate change in IWRM planning When initiating the planning process, climate change impacts need to be integrated In the vision and policy development phase adaptation to climate change is an additional element, not a replacement of IWRM goals In situation analysis climate information (predictions) and impact analysis to be incorporatedAn anticipatory, precautionary principle based approach as the basis of strategies for IWRMConsider the local authorities and river basin organisations roles in adaptation strategies in a plan Legal frameworks, economics and health, and other variable conditional elements that have been analysed form the corner stone for implementation In evaluation results have to be measured against indicators considering adaptation measures proposed in the plan Throughout the cycle continuous consultation with stakeholders 109
    110. 110. Adaptation at river basin level Typical functions of water resources management are: •Water allocation •Pollution control •Monitoring •Basin planning •Economic and financial management •Information management •Organization of stakeholder participation •Flood and drought management. 110
    111. 111. Match IWRM functions with measures and effects Possible adaptation measures IWRM function Anticipated effect Water pricing, cost recovery, investment Economic/financial management Reduced per capita consumption Improved efficiency Seasonal water rationing, re-allocation, managing water use Water allocation Pollution control Availability and access improved Uninterrupted flow Purification function secured Flood and drought risk mapping, infrastructure, scenario development Basin planning Reduced impact of extreme events Increase capture and storage of surface runoff. Basin planning Improved availability Reduced polluters in the system. 111
    112. 112. Match IRWM functions with measures and effects Possible adaptation measures IWRM function Anticipated effect Reuse and recycle, better regulation, pressure for improved sanitation Pollution control Water allocation Basin planning Improved availability Reduced groundwater pollution Groundwater usage Water allocation Basin planning Improved availability Rainwater harvesting, warning systems Water allocation Stakeholder participation Improved availability Reduced drainage damage Improving drainage systems and water treatment Pollution control Basin planning Reduced pollution Improved availability and recovery Better monitoring. Information management Monitoring. Improved action responding to real needs.
    113. 113. Adaptation means action How do we mobilize for action? The right message for decision makers The right message for communities Focus on what we can do now. Mobilising stakeholders … 113
    114. 114. Think about it What conditions make CC adaptation possible now where I live ? 114

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