OUTLOOK FOR FUEL CELL VEHICLES IN     EUROPE
What is consumeracceptance of new  technologies?
Toyota Prius sales                                                                                                        ...
Annual UK sales       30,000                                                       1.5%                      Hybrid       ...
What future for  FCEVs?
2050 projections                 Petrol / Diesel   PHEV   EV         FCEV            5%                                   ...
“By 2015, three of the world’smajor automakers could producetwenty to thirty thousand fuel cell             vehicles”     ...
2050 projections           Petrol / Diesel   PHEV   EV          FCEV       13.7m                                  13.7m   ...
Drivers for FCEVs•   EU emissions policy•   MoU between 8 major OEMs to commercialise    FCEVs by 2015•   Range anxiety am...
Purchase price       ICE      PHEV          BEV   FCEV€40k€30k€20k€10k€0k         2020          2030         2050         ...
Return-to-base fleets•   Until a wide-scale hydrogen network is available only return-to-base    operations will make sense...
Fuel cell buses• Clean Urban Transport for Europe trial • Fuel cell buses in 11 European cities • Extended by 1 year in 5 ...
BMW
Development focus•   Near term focus on Hybrids and BEVs•   Development of ConnectedDrive technology    •   User interface...
Hybrids• 2 hybrid vehicles for consumers today• ActiveHybrid X6 and ActiveHybrid 7• X6 to be discontinued due to poor  con...
Electric Vehicles       MINI E - first BMW Group BEV         95 mile range (real world)            Trials began in 2009  Fo...
Hydrogen• 745i Turbo  • First H2 vehicle BMW developed  • 1984 launch  • Based on ICE• Hyrdrogen 7  • 2006 launch  • Bival...
BMW & fuel cells•   Development of PEM fuel cells since 1997 with UTC Power•   Fuel cell hybrid 1 Series: 2 drive trains, ...
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Outlook for fuel cell vehicles in Europe and analysis of BMW's activities

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Was asked to prepare a presentation on the development of fuel cell vehicles in Europe to date and what the likely future holds.

On top of this I was also asked to look into BMW's activities into low carbon vehicles (spoiler: very little)

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  • Outlook for fuel cell vehicles in Europe and analysis of BMW's activities

    1. 1. OUTLOOK FOR FUEL CELL VEHICLES IN EUROPE
    2. 2. What is consumeracceptance of new technologies?
    3. 3. Toyota Prius sales 3rd gen model 1% launched EU % sales UK % sales World % salesNew vehicle sales percentage 0.75% 2nd gen model 0.5% launched 0.25% 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Toyota, OICA
    4. 4. Annual UK sales 30,000 1.5% Hybrid EV % of total sales 22,500 1.125% 15,000 0.75% 7,500 0.375% 0 0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Source: SMMT
    5. 5. What future for FCEVs?
    6. 6. 2050 projections Petrol / Diesel PHEV EV FCEV 5% 5% 10% 26% 35%25% 60% 35% Source: McKinsey & Co
    7. 7. “By 2015, three of the world’smajor automakers could producetwenty to thirty thousand fuel cell vehicles” Fuel Cell Today
    8. 8. 2050 projections Petrol / Diesel PHEV EV FCEV 13.7m 13.7m 27.3m 68.3m 95.6m68.3m 163.8m 95.6m Source: McKinsey & Co
    9. 9. Drivers for FCEVs• EU emissions policy• MoU between 8 major OEMs to commercialise FCEVs by 2015• Range anxiety amongst consumers - hindering BEV uptake. Additionally BEVs are not suitable for long distance or high motive power applications (e.g. haulage)• Experience delivered in LCVs reducing costs for consumer vehicles
    10. 10. Purchase price ICE PHEV BEV FCEV€40k€30k€20k€10k€0k 2020 2030 2050 Source: McKinsey & Co
    11. 11. Return-to-base fleets• Until a wide-scale hydrogen network is available only return-to-base operations will make sense.• Already uptake for forklifts in factories replacing electric lifters.• Recent study for Heathrow exploring potential for H2 base. Forklifts, baggage trollies, buses and taxis all take advantage of such a base and are suited to FCs. Considerable environmental impact reductions from implementation of H2 (sound, particulates, emissions etc.). Hamburg already has baggage trollies in operation & public hydrogen refuelling station.• Taxis are highly visible and will drive refuelling stations in city centres too. IE’s partnership with LTI and Peugeot-Citreon help drive this.
    12. 12. Fuel cell buses• Clean Urban Transport for Europe trial • Fuel cell buses in 11 European cities • Extended by 1 year in 5 cities• London RV1 route has 8 H buses in 2 operation• Also in Oslo, Milan, Bolzano, Aargau
    13. 13. BMW
    14. 14. Development focus• Near term focus on Hybrids and BEVs• Development of ConnectedDrive technology • User interface and smart transport applications to improve urban transport efficiency• Long term focus on H2 in ICE • Ancillary fuel cell for car electrics• Launch of sustainability-focused BMWi brand
    15. 15. Hybrids• 2 hybrid vehicles for consumers today• ActiveHybrid X6 and ActiveHybrid 7• X6 to be discontinued due to poor consumer uptake• Collaborating with PSA Peugeot Citroen to develop hybrid drivetrains. First products with new technology likely to be on market by 2014
    16. 16. Electric Vehicles MINI E - first BMW Group BEV 95 mile range (real world) Trials began in 2009 Followed by ActiveE with 200 mile range Development towards BMW i3 & i8 Targeted launch in 2013To be first series production consumer BEVs Image source: BMW and (Creative Commons)
    17. 17. Hydrogen• 745i Turbo • First H2 vehicle BMW developed • 1984 launch • Based on ICE• Hyrdrogen 7 • 2006 launch • Bivalent ICE system • Liquid H2 cryo-storage • Range on H2 of approximately 200km • 100 vehicles leased • Development stopped in 2009• To date, no commercial vehicles have been released for sale• Future R&D focus on cryogenic storage of H2 Image source: Ori Neidich (Creative Commons)
    18. 18. BMW & fuel cells• Development of PEM fuel cells since 1997 with UTC Power• Fuel cell hybrid 1 Series: 2 drive trains, ICE powering front wheel base, FC powering rear wheel base• Using stationary fuel cells to power plants in USA• Also using fuel cells in material handling equipment (forklifts etc.) • Provided by Plug Power

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