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EV (PASSENGER, LCVS, TRUCKS, AND BUSES) AND EV CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE FORECASTS
1.
Confidential. ©Power Technology
Research 2023. EV and EV Charging Infrastructure Forecasts Efra Farah Usmani Lead Analyst– E-Mobility Efra.usmani@ptr.inc Speaker: Prepared For: Asia Pacific EV Charging infrastructure 2023
2.
Confidential. ©Power Technology
Research 2023. Founded in 2016 Owned and operated by researchers, analysts, and power engineers Objective: To understand the recent and upcoming changes to our electric infrastructure while identifying and communicating the best technologies and associated business models applied by industry leaders. COVERAGE Power Grid New Energy PTR Inc. The three pillars of PTR: Transparency, Diligence, and Digestibility
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Research 2023. Covering all aspects of transmission & distribution grid and emerging new energy topics Specialized Power Grid & New Energy Market Research Transformers (Dist., Power) Switchgear (HV, MV) Flexible AC Trans. Systems (SVCs, STATCOMs) Port Electrification (Shore-to-Ship, Microgrid) HVDC Market Analysis (VSC, LCC, Cables) Substation Automation (Dist. vs Cent.) Smart Meters (Power Quality, AMI) Synchronous Condensers (4-Pole, 6-Pole,…) Power Factor Correction (Active, Passive) Grid Communication (Private LTE, 5G) EV Charging Infrastructure (Public, Private, Passenger/Comm.) Energy Storage Value Chain (Utility Scale, C&I) Industrial Motors & Drives (MV/LV - Custom) Comm. & Off-Highway Vehicles (BEVs, PHEVs, ICEs) Hydrogen in Power Sector (Tech., Demand, Value Chain) H2 Impact of EVs on Power Grid (Quantitative, Trafo., Switchgear) AI in Power Grid (Projects, Corp. Strategy, Policy )
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Research 2023. Agenda Vehicle Electrification Trends • Vehicle Electrification Trends- Light-Duty Vehicles • Vehicle Electrification Trends- Trucks and Buses • Electrification Landscape Global EV Chargers Market Overview • Global EVSE Market Forecast • Global Public EV Charger Market • Global Private EV Charger Market APAC EV Chargers Market Trends • Regional EVSE Market- APAC • EVSE Country Market - APAC EVSE Policies and Incentives • Global EVSE Policies & Incentives Competitive Landscape • Key Competitive Analysis Trends
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Research 2023. Vehicle Electrification Trends
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Research 2023. Electrification Landscape – Light-Duty Vehicles BEV passenger car and light commercial vehicle sales are rising globally, with greater sales in the APAC region. Annual Passenger EV Sales 7,928 20,453 38,014 2,651 3,375 3,011 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 2022 2026 2030 Annual Sales (‘000s) PHEV BEV Regional Distribution (Passenger EV) 23% 10% 67% EMEA Americas APAC 32% 18% 50% EMEA Americas APAC 2022 2030 Annual Electric LCV Sales 198 1,215 3,045 5 63 96 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 2022 2026 2030 Annual Sales (‘000s) PHEV BEV Regional Distribution (Electric LCV) 38% 11% 51% EMEA Americas APAC 24% 24% 52% EMEA Americas APAC 2022 2030
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Research 2023. Electrification Landscape – Trucks & Buses Compared to PHEVs, BEV truck and bus sales are increasing globally, with greater sales in the APAC region. Annual Electric Bus Sales 114 189 544 4 19 44 0 200 400 600 800 2022 2026 2030 Annual Sales (‘000s) PHEV BEV Regional Distribution (Electric Bus) 5%2% 93% EMEA Americas APAC 13% 29% 58% EMEA Americas APAC 2022 2030 Annual Electric Truck Sales 32 287 850 3 56 71 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 2022 2026 2030 Annual Sales (‘000s) PHEV BEV Regional Distribution (Electric Truck) 3%5% 92% EMEA Americas APAC 14% 27% 59% EMEA Americas APAC 2022 2030
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Research 2023. Electrification Landscape Norway, Sweden, Finland had the highest market share for electric vehicles in 2022 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Share of EVs in car sales (%) Annual Sales (‘000s) Electric vehicle annual sales relative to market share of EVs 2018 2022
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Research 2023. Global EV Chargers Market Overview
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Research 2023. $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 2021 2025 2030 Million USD Possible Market Scenarios 2021-2030 $ 63.5B $ 38.9B $ 23.0B Revenue-2030 (Billion $) CAGR (2021- 2030) 38% 31% 23% Highest case (units); Lowest price decline Lowest case (units); Highest price decline Base case (units); Base price decline Implementation of government plans and incentives for charging infrastructure Price decline of EV chargers Rate of penetration of EVs in the market Volatile forecasts; Implementation of the plans and future price decline can significantly impact the market revenue in the forecast (Global) Global EVSE Market Forecast
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Research 2023. DC high power charging (>60kW) is expected to grow rapidly in public charging infrastructure in comparison to DC low Power Global Public EV Charger Market 0.48 1.24 1.78 0.77 1.00 0.89 1.25 3.05 4.30 2022 2026 2030 Revenue (B USD) Public Charging Revenue by Charger Family AC DC Low Power (≤60 kW) DC High Power (>60 kW) DC Low Power DC High Power AC Limited growth of public low-power DC chargers in coming years Destination and en-route applications to spearhead growth of public high-power DC chargers 2.5 2.9 3.6 4.6 5.3 5.9 6.2 6.6 7.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Revenue (B USD) Public Charging Revenue CAGR 2022-30 2% CAGR 2022-30 17% CAGR 2022-30 18%
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Research 2023. Global Private EV Charger Market 2.9 4.1 6.4 9.0 11.8 15.0 19.1 24.2 32.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Revenue (B USD) Private Charging Revenue AC chargers’ leading market share will lead in residential and workplace installations. In private sector, DC charging to grow exponentially driven by fleet electrification. While AC chargers remain the dominant type in EV charging, DC charging will gain more popularity in fleet applications. 1.74 5.35 11.39 0.70 3.34 8.06 0.50 3.07 12.54 2022 2026 2030 Revenue (B USD) Private Charging Revenue by Charger Family AC DC Low Power (≤60 kW) DC High Power (>60 kW) CAGR 2022-30 26% CAGR 2022-30 36% CAGR 2022-30 50% DC Low Power DC High Power AC
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Research 2023. APAC EV Chargers Market Trends
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Research 2023. APAC region accounts for a significant share in the global EVSE market primarily because of China and South Korea spearheading the growth Regional EVSE Market - APAC 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 2022 2025 2028 Revenue (M USD) Private EVSE (Revenue) AC DC Low Power DC High Power 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2022 2025 2028 Revenue (M USD) Public EVSE (Revenue) AC DC Low Power DC High Power 13% 69% 18% Public EVSE Application Split - 2022 Residential Workplace Destination En-Route 75% 25% Private EVSE Application Split - 2022 Residential Workplace Destination En-Route
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Research 2023. China right now dominates the APAC EVSE market, however by 2030, other APAC countries will increase their market share EVSE Country Markets - APAC China South Korea Japan Australia India Rest of APAC Sales : 2.4M Charging Points Annual Market - 2022 Charging Points Annual Market - 2030 China Japan South Korea India Australia Rest of APAC Sales : 8.6M
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Research 2023. EVSE Policies and Incentives
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Research 2023. EV charging market is currently an incentive driven market China • China has"14th Five-Year Plan” for every province that promote the electrification of public and private vehicles. • New Energy Automobile Industry Development Plan (2021-2035): This policy aims at vigorously promoting the construction of charging and improve the service level of charging infrastructure. USA • Bipartisan Infrastructure Law ($7.5 B) • EVSE rebates, incentives and investment plans at state level and from regional utilities. India • The Government of India has been supporting the EV industry through schemes such as FAME1 and FAME2 with a major focus on charging infrastructure with INR 10 Billion has been allocated for the charging infrastructure. France • $ 113 million funding for fast- charging stations. • The ADVENIR Program • Tax exemptions & reductions for residential, workplace and public chargers. Germany • Govt. approved to spend 6.3 billion euros in next three years to scale up EV charging stations • The Deutschlandnetz was approved by EU commission to subsidize 8500 HPC stations by spending 1.8 billion euros Italy: Subsidies for the purchase and installation of EV chargers United Kingdom • £1.9 billion in charging infrastructure and consumer incentives Undeveloped markets Emerging markets Leading markets Canada: • $680 million ‘ZEVIP’ funding up to 50% of EVSE project costs. • Provincial EVSE rebates, incentives and investment plans. Australia The Future Fuels Fund is a $71.9 million cash pile announced in the 2020-21 federal budget, Recently, The Federal Government has announced a further $178 million for the Future Fuels Fund. Global EVSE Policies & Incentives EU Green Deal • Installing high-power charging stations every 60 km on highways. • Directive for new buildings to have chargers installed. Japan All new cars sold in Japan will be clean energy vehicles by 2035, according to the government of Japan (GOJ). South Korea BEV will be subsidized by the state government with 8 million won (approx. 6,600 dollars.
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Research 2023. Competitive Landscape
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Research 2023. Consolidation 360-degree service • EVSE start ups and small companies are acquired by energy utilities, large manufacturers and oil giants to strengthen their business • Smaller companies, specially maintaining public charging networks are not able to sustain because of low utilization of chargers and cost associated • Companies providing E-Mobility service are moving towards providing a 360-degree service. They manufacture chargers, manage and operate charging stations, design management software and function as an electric mobility service provider as well. Below are some examples: • Eaton has acquired green motion which provides all the above services • ABB has partnered with ChargeLab which will allow them to offer integrated hardware and software services • ABB is also planning to carve out its EV charging business into a separate legal entity • Chargepoint acquired Austrian e-Mobility software provider has.to.be to accelerate e-mobility developments across Europe. Competitive Landscape (1/2) Evolving business models; M&As slowly moving E-mobility market towards consolidation
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Research 2023. Companies going public Globalization • To meet the huge market need of chargers, sizable investments are required, hence private EVSE companies are going public through the route of “Initial Public Offering” IPO or through merger with Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC) deals. • In E-Mobility spectrum, SPAC deal has shown to be preferred over IPO route by OEMs for going public. This is because companies then get imposed with less regulations of the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) as well as time frame required is less. • Chargepoint, Wallbox, and Tritium are the companies that have opted for the SPAC route to go public while ABB and some small companies intend to go public via the IPO route. FASTNED and Blink charging have already gone public in 2014 and 2018, respectively, through IPO. • EVSE OEMs are making strategic international expansion plans to scale their footprint to a global level and provide their companies a significant infrastructure share in new regions. • This expansion is being done through new partnerships, mergers and acquisitions and allows the companies to capitalize on new markets immediately and provides opportunities to strategically increase their global assets • ABB acquired a majority stake in the Chinese EVSE OEM, Chargedot and Indian EV charging digital platform provider, Numocity. • Multiple Chinese companies including Star Charge, Atess Power Technology and En+ have started acting as a supplier to various European and Americas EVSE OEMs. • U.S based CPO, Blink Charging recently acquired European EV charging operator Blue Corner which immediately added 7,000 charging points in Western Europe to their network. Competitive Landscape (2/2) EVSE companies going public, entering new markets and expanding their product portfolio
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Research 2023. Analysis of EV & EV Chargers market around the globe EVSE Market Sizing- 28 Countries, 5 Regions Installed and Annual Market forecast in Capacity, Application and Owner’s views from 2020-2030 (Units, Revenue) Public Policies and Plans Charger Pricing Incentives and Grants Market Shares, Top Suppliers Presentation of data in PowerBI platform EVSE Software Service Market Sizing EVSE Market Competitive Analysis Report PTR Sonar EVSE Installed and Annual Market forecast from 2020-2030 (Units, Revenue) Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) Company Profiles of 15 leading EVSE OEMs Weekly updates on key market happenings Proprietary desktop/mobile app PTR’s EVSE Market Research
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Research 2023. ©Power Technology Research Inc. All the products, company names and other marks/logos appearing in this document are trademarks and property of Power Technology Research Inc. or their respective owners. No part of this analysis may be reproduced, reused or otherwise distributed in any form or fashion without prior written consent of Power Technology Research Inc., with the exception of any distribution as permitted by the license bought by the customer. Content reproduced or redistributed according to the permission must still give attribute of authorship to Power Technology Research Inc. and display the legal notices. The information contained in this database is from sources deemed reliable by Power Technology Research Inc., however, the accuracy and completeness of the data is not warranted. To the extent permitted by the law, Power Technology Research Inc. shall not be liable for any errors, omissions or any loss or damage incurred due to reliance on the information contained in this database. For further information , please visit the licensing section of our website under: http://www.powertechresearch.com/licensing-information.html or contact us at: inquiry@powertechresearch.com ;+1-408-622-0456 (North America and RoW); +49 (0)89 12250950 (EMEA). Your Contacts at PTR Michael Sheppard Chief Executive Officer T. +49 (0)89 12252370 mike.sheppard@ptr.inc Hassan Zaheer Chief Commercial Officer T. +49 (0)89 12250950 hassan.@ptr.inc Saqib Saeed Chief Research Officer T. +49 (0)89 12252374 saqib.saeed@ptr.inc Sunnyvale Munich Tokyo Lahore